Politics As Usual

Hi, I am Caroline Doyle, an associate editor at Horizon Engage. This week, we’re covering politicking across the globe:

• Brazilian Chamber of Deputies Speaker Arthur Lira has picked Federal Deputy Hugo Motta to succeed him, adamant about his choice amid pushback.
• South Africa’s Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources Gwede Mantashe suggested that a bill he supports could help raise GDP growth to 8%, more than double the highest predictions.?
• A US official visiting Greece dodged a question about the EastMed pipeline project, signaling reservations about its financial viability.

This week’s quote comes from judicial workers in Mexico protesting the government’s controversial reforms to the judiciary. Read more below!

Lira Digs in His Heels

Nearing the end of his term, Brazilian Chamber of Deputies Speaker Arthur Lira selected Federal Deputy Hugo Motta to succeed him. However, Motta faces stiff competition from Antonio Brito from the Social Democratic Party and Elmar Nascimento of the Brazil Union Party. Brito and Nascimento have cut a deal to hold whip votes: Whoever wins will support the other when the floor votes to elect a new speaker.?

Lira relies on support from President Lula and his Workers Party and former President Jair Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party, both of which want their own pound of flesh. Lira will not budge on picking Motta and will need to navigate the political scramble to get him into the seat.?

Mantashe Gets Hyperbolic

During Africa Oil Week in Cape Town, South African Minister of Mines and Petroleum Resources Gwede Mantashe suggested that passing the Upstream Petroleum Resources Development Bill could help the oil and gas sector boost GDP growth to 8%. Although the sector has seen slow progress recently, nothing supports such an extensive claim; GDP growth is projected to be 1.1% in 2024.?

Mantashe likely tossed out the number to pressure the bill’s opponents. President Cyril Ramaphosa has yet to sign it, and environmental groups, which continue using the appeals process to delay exploration, are further opposing it. Mantashe’s big dreams are extremely unlikely to be realized.?

US Support for EastMed Pipeline Wanes

Last week, US Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources Geoffrey Pyatt declined to comment on the EastMed project, a 1,250 km gas pipeline from Israel to Europe. This reinforces the State Department’s position from 2022, which included reservations about the project’s financial viability and a preference for “greener” options. Pyatt then referred to the Vertical Corridor (a pipeline system for natural gas)? as “the dream of the US government,” noting its cheaper cost.?

Washington is not the only one losing enthusiasm for the project. The Israeli, Cyprus and Greek governments are also becoming increasingly disillusioned with it, though the pipeline still survives on paper. It remains a priority for the EU but is awaiting a final investment decision from IGI Poseidon, a Greek-Italian consortium.?

Quote of the Week

This week, new Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum met with foreign investors, largely to reassure them about her government’s ambitious reform agenda and the controversial judicial reform.

The meeting had to be relocated amid protests by judicial workers. Their signs were an ominous start for Sheinbaum, reading:?

“Businessmen — Do Not Be Fooled.”?