Politics, Patriotism and the Parsimonious Former Regime

For a country whose history is maimed with numerous dogmas for each decade, the present day scenario shouldn’t come up as a surprise. It’s just the incessant polarization of the masses that should ring some bells if it hasn’t already. Whether it leads to anarchy or civil war remains a mystery for now.

???????????The performance scorecard of the ex-government that has been replaced with the narratives of patriotism, self-righteousness and calls for ‘independence’, must not be overshadowed before the next polls. The allocation of resources coupled with the strategic decisions and alliances made by the Imran Khan administration must be analyzed at least, if not ‘audited’ to understand the priorities they had for Pakistan.

The equity market saw an exodus of large number of passive investments set in motion by the down gradation of Pakistan to the ‘emerging markets category’ by MSCI in September 2021. Before the recovery plan could materialize, the worsening economic indicators in terms of high CPI, outstanding foreign payments, global oil crises and the deepening pressure on the current account has all gone against the government. It must be emphasized here that whatever goes on around the world, Pakistan has a lot of internal problems that needed resolution as well. A host of income tax authority chiefs both from within the bureaucracy and outsiders were brought in to place ‘out of the box solutions’ on the table for remedying the core issues. Similarly, the finance and energy ministers were changed over the 4-year period in a hope that whoever occupies the office may be able to provide a shortcut solution. However, the current situation doesn’t vouch for their performance and the promises made. The whole set of changes introduced by the Khan regime has a deep-rooted connection as to how the Pakistanis are always in search of short-term solutions and perhaps easily sold on the ‘aspirations’ rather than plans in the pre-poll campaigns.

To advocate the austerity drive and to push forward the narrative of corruption of prior regimes, the funds were spent in a highly parsimonious manner by the Khan’s government. The major development and infrastructural projects were delayed to the latter half of the 5-year period. Consequently, the achievements in the first two years didn’t gel in well with the masses and more or less related to the personal accomplishments of the prime minster. To keep a direct connection with the masses, he even televised complaint sessions with the public to show his care for the weak and underprivileged. It remains a question as to whether one-on-one telephonic interactions with the public made any difference or not as there were several reports of the numbers being fudged before the ‘actual’ policy decisions.

After all the political hustle that surrounded the Constitutional Avenue in Islamabad in April, the Imran Khan regime has been ousted but at what cost? The economic crises deepened with further international loans and relaxations in repayment terms being sought currently. The policy rates have jumped by 250bps with more increases on the way as the government can no longer buy from the central bank. Bad fiscal management has definitely increased associated risks and the commercial banks are cashing in on it.

The world, as it fights its ways back from a pandemic and an ongoing war, needs to see Pakistan as a land of opportunity for the upcoming decade. However, to do the same, a sense of political harmony and stability in terms of institutional policies/initiatives as well as figureheads is inevitable to build trust. In a region that is already marred by the ongoing financial crises in Sri Lanka and the turmoil in Afghanistan, Pakistan needs to come up with a better plan. Fresh polls, even if they are held within months or a year will bring more uncertainty which is not a good omen for the equity markets. A lot of sectors are also fearing for the unsustainable extension in fuel subsidy to rally ground support against the calls for “immediate dissolution of the imported government” on twitter and Imran Khan’s roadshows. Whether a sense of economic sanity will prevail remains a question unanswered for now.

-?Sajid Laeeq

(The views expressed above are of a personal nature and do not represent any association or affiliation with any political or government related body)