The Politics of the Middle East: Is the Unpredictability of Trump a Force for Stability in the MENA Region?

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has long been a geopolitical hotbed, where the interests of global powers intersect with complex local dynamics. The return of a Trump administration—known for its erratic and unpredictable policies—raises questions about its impact on stability in the region. While unpredictability can sometimes force actors to recalibrate, its long-term effects on a region as volatile as MENA require a nuanced assessment.

Unpredictability as a Diplomatic Tool

Donald Trump’s foreign policy often relied on unpredictability as a strategy, upending traditional diplomatic norms. In the MENA region, this approach had both immediate effects and lingering consequences:

• Pressure Through Uncertainty:?By keeping adversaries off balance, such as Iran, Trump forced them to reconsider aggressive actions, as seen with the "maximum pressure" campaign.
• Rapid Shifts in Alliances:?The Abraham Accords, normalising relations between Israel and several Arab nations, showcased how unpredictability could result in breakthroughs. However, the long-term sustainability of these agreements remains uncertain.
• Erratic Messaging:?Frequent shifts in U.S. policy left allies like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel uncertain about the extent of American commitment.

The Positive Case: Stability Through Calculated Risks

For some, Trump’s unpredictability acted as a catalyst for recalibrating power dynamics in the region:

• Deterring Iran:?The Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and subsequent sanctions significantly impacted Iran’s economy, curbing its regional influence in the short term.
• Encouraging Regional Cooperation:?Fear of U.S. disengagement under Trump pushed Arab states to seek new alliances, leading to regional cooperation that could outlast his presidency.
• Shifting Focus:?Trump’s transactional approach shifted the focus from ideological conflicts to pragmatic economic and security interests, such as arms deals and counterterrorism.

The Negative Case: Instability Through Volatility

Critics argue that Trump’s unpredictability exacerbated existing tensions and created new ones:

• Weakening U.S. Credibility:?Sudden decisions, such as the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria, left allies feeling abandoned and emboldened adversaries like Turkey and Russia.
• Polarising Allies:?Favouritism towards specific leaders, such as Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia and Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, alienated other regional players and exacerbated divisions.
• Escalating Conflicts:?Trump’s confrontational approach toward Iran, including the killing of General Qasem Soleimani, brought the region to the brink of war without offering a viable long-term strategy.

A Mixed Legacy: Lessons for the Future

The impact of Trump’s unpredictability on MENA stability is complex and multifaceted:

• Short-Term Gains, Long-Term Risks:?While certain actions created immediate results, such as curbing Iran’s influence, they often lacked follow-through, leaving a vacuum for other powers to exploit.
• Empowering Non-State Actors:?The focus on state-level deals often ignored the role of non-state actors like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, whose influence continues to destabilise the region.
• Unclear Policy Goals:?Without a coherent strategy, unpredictability risks becoming a liability, leaving allies and adversaries alike guessing about U.S. intentions.

Conclusion: A Double-Edged Sword

Trump’s unpredictability in the MENA region is both a strength and a weakness. While it can disrupt entrenched dynamics and encourage recalibration, it also risks fostering instability by alienating allies, emboldening adversaries, and creating power vacuums. For the region to achieve lasting stability, unpredictability must be paired with a clear and consistent strategic vision. Otherwise, the MENA region may remain caught in a cycle of short-term gains and long-term uncertainty.

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