The Politics of Crisis Management

As the world enters the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic, this once in a century event provides crisis and risk managers with first-hand, objective lessons for responding to a true crisis. We have seen the numerous response strategies that have been implemented around the globe, with varying degrees of success. However, whatever the nature of this true crisis event is, there are some basic concepts that need to be borne in mind by those responsible for taking decisions that literally affect the lives of millions.

Academic studies for crisis response provide a good starting point for any examination of the actions taken, (or not taken) by political leaders. Studies indicate that the population, i.e. the general public, are expecting ‘strong and decisive leadership’ from their respective governments. What people actually get is the more typical crisis response ‘Blame Game’, where politicians get caught up in a cycle of accusation and counter accusation. The case in point here are the current issues between the EU and the UK regarding production and export of the Astra-Zenica vaccine.

 At this point, it is worth injecting a modicum of sanity into the ongoing debate. The general public need an answer to the question ‘when will things return to normal? For a potential answer, we need to listen to the medical subject matter experts. Dr Anthony Fauci clearly falls into this category, although he will be recognised for more his more recent comments, rather than his overall track record. His biography, available at the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIAID, states that:

 ‘In a 2020 analysis of Google Scholar citations, Dr Fauci ranked as the 32nd most-cited living researcher.’[1]

 In answer to the above question, Dr Fauci gave his view that:

 ‘around 70 to 85 percent of the population needs to be vaccinated to see a "dramatic decrease" in cases and really get a good handle on the pandemic’[2]

 Returning to the EU/UK debate, various political leaders and diplomats that have offered their views on the challenges of vaccine production and distribution that would seem to be more caught up in ‘Blame Game’ politics rather than focusing on the larger picture. The supporting evidence for this statement is taken from a recent BBC report that highlights:

 250,000 doses of the Astra-Zenica vaccine due to be delivered to Australia were impounded by Italy a few weeks ago

 The Astra-Zenica production facility in the Netherlands hasn’t received its EU license to distribute vaccines or their components.[3]

 One of the more erudite questions engendered from the above is how can Astra-Zenica vaccines be blocked from export if the company does not a have a license to produce them in Europe in the first place? Moving to comments made by the EU Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen stated that EU has exported more than 10 million jabs to the UK, but the UK has yet to export any in return.[3]  These comments are both emotive, appealing to ‘EU’ citizens, and appear not to accurately reflect the reality. A check of the AZ website[4] show that they are a publicly traded company with a global presence. AZ is not owned by the EU, so comments that indicate the EU has exported vaccines to the UK would appear to infer that it is the UK who are to blame for a slower vaccine rollout in Europe. On balance, the EU Commission President also admits that the EU was slower than the UK in placing in contracts for vaccines. A rare admission?

So what can those responding to a crisis learn from the above?

 1. Listen to the scientific advice where required

 2. Take the politics out of the equation

 3. Do not lose sight of the Strategic Objective

 In this case, the strategic objective would seem to be to have 70 to 85% of the population vaccinated to contain the pandemic. In the longer term, what is required is an unbiased, non-political, and objective review of lessons learned from 2020 and beyond, rather than comments based on political expediency. On a personal note, I am a British expat, living in the Middle East, I have received a US developed vaccine and I am not an AZ shareholder.

[1] https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/anthony-s-fauci-md-bio

 [2] https://bestlifeonline.com/fauci-stopping-covid/

 [3] https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-52380823

 [4] https://www.astrazeneca.com/investor-relations/shareholder-information.html