POLITICO Playbook: WHY ELIZABETH WARREN won’t be HRC’s V.P. – BLEAK HOUSE: GOP bigwigs more bearish on Trump chances

BREAKING - "McConnell doesn't rule out revoking Trump endorsement," by Nick Gass: McConnell tells Tammy Haddad and Betsy Fischer Martin on their latest Bloomberg "Masters in Politics" podcast: "I'm not going to speculate about what he might say, or what I might do." https://politi.co/1YeiQlg ... Bloomberg storyhttps://bloom.bg/1UkER0z ... Audio https://bloom.bg/25P88ru

--"Ryan called Trump to scold over judge comments," by Nick Gass: "Asked by Stephanopoulos [in portion of 'This Week' interview played on 'Good Morning America'] whether Trump understands the backlash, Ryan demurred. 'I don't know the answer to that question. Getting over that kind of a comment is not -- ... That comment is beyond the pale. That's not political correctness.'" https://politi.co/1Og9R1l

By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; [email protected]) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; [email protected])

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Happy Friday! TOP REPUBLICANS TURN BEARISH about Trump's chances of winning the presidency -- AND about their chances of swapping in a new nominee if he weakens and loses endorsements. One well-wired Republican with a great track record of calling this cycle said Trump's chances of winning in November dropped from one-third before the Mexican/Indianan judge incident to one-fifth now. This Republican estimates that Trump will get 45ish percent of the vote: Hillary "won't wear well and Rs in the end will largely come home. White anger is real." 

Our latest insider poll, The Politico Caucus, found that 37% of our GOP influencers would like to see an organized effort to change the rules of the convention to stop Trump. Steve Shepard calls that "sizable," but notes: "The majority of GOP insiders, a little more than 60 percent, expressed either hesitance or disdain for such an effort." https://politi.co/1YeeSJx

Trump would have to decide to go or be pushed before the convention -- party experts interviewed by Playbook don't see him losing on the first ballot. Yes, Cruz forces are strong on the RNC Rules Committee. They could, indeed, make changes to disadvantage Trump on a first ballot. So dumping Trump is theoretically and legalistically possible, but party gurus say it's not realistically practical with his 13 million primary votes. 

The discussion among the party establishment (including senators, governors, party leaders, big donors and some state legislative leaders) is whether it's possible for McConnell and Ryan to lead some sort of revolt. But there's no evidence McConnell or Ryan would do that. 

FINAL EMBERS -- "The Sanders wind-down begins," by Gabe Debenedetti: "The walls are crumbling, and Bernie Sanders knows it. ... Revolution Messaging, the firm running Sanders' digital operations, rolled out a new site designed to connect out-of-work progressives with new jobs while Sanders and his team were flying back East on Wednesday. Several of the campaign's top tech staffers say they're still on payroll, but a number of those aides who were integral to building his online fundraising juggernaut, voter micro targeting, and online videos acknowledged that they're looking past the convention, including at opportunities to help Clinton." https://politi.co/1rg18AQ

--HILLARY VIDEO -- "Obama endorses Hillary Clinton" - 3-min. video https://bit.ly/1UGKqFg

JUST POSTED - Ben "Carson says Trump knows judge attack was wrong ,'" by Kyle Cheney: "'He fully recognizes that that was not the right thing to say,' Carson said in an interview, noting he's heard Trump say so himself during a private meeting this week at Trump Tower. ... Carson ... says Trump is just spilling his unfiltered thoughts, not displaying latent racism. 'He was probably talking out loud rather than thinking. That's not a good thing to do when everything you say is going to be analyzed.'" https://politi.co/1TZbc9B

--@amandacarpenter: "Wow. Elizabeth Warren is going to make it her day job to flip the Senate. And make McConnell own Trump's judge comments. Smart."

THE CONVERSATION: Is Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders now the leader of the Democratic Party's progressive wing? (Hat tip: Chuck Todd, during commercial break when we were on MSNBC's "MTP Daily" yesterday.) One of our Democratic Kremlinologists tells us there's no consensus answer yet: "She's the clear leader in D.C. - will be interesting to see if he can remain the clear leader out in the country. I doubt it."

VIDEO DU JOUR: "Warren Endorses Hillary Clinton on Rachel Maddow Show" - Rachel came down so they could do interview on-set at Nebraska Ave.  https://nbcnews.to/1ZDL6g4

TOP TWEET - @realDonaldTrump: "Pocahontas is at it again! Goofy Elizabeth Warren, one of the least productive U.S. Senators, has a nasty mouth. Hope she is V.P. choice."

PLAYBOOK FACTS OF LIFE on the possibility that Hillary picks Warren for V.P.: A Democratic insider tells us "no way in hell. She hates her, and she doesn't want a competitor for power in her White House. The 'V.P. candidate as attack dog' thing is long over. Every single Democrat is and will be attacking Trump every day."

SPOTTED: Elizabeth Warren and husband, Bruce Mann, eating dinner last night at Shake Shack in Chinatown.

SOCIAL 2016 - @HillaryClinton's 3-word tweet to Trump yesterday -- "Delete your account" -- is now Hillary's most retweeted tweet ever, at over 389K RTs and 470K likes. She was responding to @realDonaldTrump: "Obama just endorsed Crooked Hillary. He wants four more years of Obama-but nobody else does!" https://bit.ly/25Ri5Be

CLICKER - "Biden Writes an Open Letter To Stanford Survivor " via BuzzFeed: "I am filled with furious anger - both that this happened to you and that our culture is still so broken that you were ever put in the position of defending your own worth." https://bzfd.it/25QPsEv

INSTAGRAM DU JOUR - Tim Miller (@timodcpics): "'Huddling' about a 3rd party bid" with Mark Cuban outside 1 Time Warner yesterday morning after Cuban did CNN's "New Day" and also bumped into Jeff Zucker https://bit.ly/1PObnbj 

** A message from the Coalition for Fiscal and National Security: Strength at Home and Abroad: Mullen, Albright, Brzezinski, Gates, Kissinger, Panetta, Paulson and more unite to emphasize the fundamental link between America's long-term fiscal health and national security. Respected bipartisan group highlights fiscal sustainability and economic growth as foundation for continued global leadership in changing security environment. Read more: https://bit.ly/CFNS2016 **

MEDIAWATCH - "Fox News officially boots Ed Henry from Hillary Clinton beat," by WashPost's Erik Wemple: "Fox News announced ... that Henry ... won't be covering the Clinton campaign - an assignment from which he was benched in early May after In Touch magazine reported that he'd carried on an extramarital affair with a Las Vegas hostess. ... Fox News is assigning national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin."  https://wapo.st/28pJOeB

SCOOP -- WSJ 5-col. lead, "Clinton Emails Dealt With Drones: Messages sent from Pakistan moved on a less-secure system," by Adam Entous and Devlin Barrett: "At the center of a criminal probe involving Hillary Clinton's handling of classified information is a series of emails between American diplomats in Islamabad and their superiors in Washington about whether to oppose specific drone strikes in Pakistan. ... Some of the emails were then forwarded by Mrs. Clinton's aides to her personal email account ... It happened when decisions about imminent strikes had to be relayed fast and the U.S. diplomats in Pakistan or Washington didn't have ready access to a more-secure system, either because it was night or they were traveling." https://on.wsj.com/1tmhmKG

-- "Clinton BlackBerry photo led to State official's query about email account," by Josh Gerstein: "Clarence Finney, who oversaw an office responsible for [FOIA] searches, raised the question about an official account after seeing the photo in the media, according to testimony at a deposition held Wednesday ... The image went viral on social media in 2012, prompting a 'Texts from Hillary' meme."  https://politi.co/1ZDxMZd

TOP TALKER - WSJ A-Hed, "To Add Steps, Fitbit Cheats Use Pets, Ceiling Fans, Power Tools: Corporate fitness contests marred by sketchy results; the 'hamster wheel' guy," by Rachel Bachman: "Dan Adams ... taped his Fitbit activity tracker to the blade of an electric saw and left it vibrating on a work bench. When he returned early the next morning, the saw's vibrations had registered 57,000 steps. ... Workplace 'step challenges' are big with companies aiming to encourage employee fitness. In pursuit of victory, some workers are using power tools, pets and household appliances to fool digital fitness trackers ... 

"The tracker-on-your-dog technique is common enough that Chicago-based Stridekick, which operates wellness programs at about 200 companies, tested trackers on its own employees' pooches. ... 'Dogs typically do between 13,000 and 30,000 steps in a day.' ... A CFO at a small company boosted his step total by attaching his tracker to his foot and tapping it throughout meetings." https://on.wsj.com/1UGlyuy ... YouTube by Dan Adams (the electric-saw guy), "The secret to winning Fitbit challenges" https://bit.ly/1UqoTxN

LATE-NIGHT BEST - "'Slow Jam the News' with President Obama": "Jimmy Fallon and President Obama slow jam the news [and drops the mic at the end], discussing Obama's legacy, accomplishments and thoughts on the 2016 election." 7-min. video https://bit.ly/1WHKlVg

-- "David Letterman told Tom Brokaw that after his retirement, 'I couldn't care less about late night television,' in the former late night host's first in-depth TV interview since leaving his show. ... Letterman's interview with Brokaw premieres during 'On Assignment,' the limited series from 'Dateline NBC,' on Sunday ... at 7 p.m. ET."

"GOLIATH vs. DAVID" -- USA Today banner, "TRUMP'S TRAIL OF UNPAID BILLS: Plumbers, waiters, painters claim they got stiffed," by Steve Reilly (online: "Hundreds allege Donald Trump doesn't pay his bills"): "Trump often portrays himself as a savior of the working class who will 'protect your job.' But ... he has been involved in more than 3,500 lawsuits over the past three decades - and a large number of those involve ordinary Americans ... who say Trump or his companies have refused to pay them. At least 60 lawsuits, along with hundreds of liens, judgments, and other government filings, ... document people who have accused Trump and his businesses of failing to pay them for their work. 

"Among them: a dishwasher in Florida. A glass company in New Jersey. A carpet company. A plumber. Painters. Forty-eight waiters. Dozens of bartenders and other hourly workers at his resorts and clubs, coast to coast. ... And, ironically, several law firms that once represented him in these suits and others. ... The actions ... paint a portrait of Trump's sprawling organization frequently failing to pay small businesses and individuals, then sometimes tying them up in court and other negotiations for years." 

--TRUMP INTERVIEW: "I am known for paying on time, and I'm also known for giving bonuses to people if they do a great job. But you're right: If somebody does a POOR job, I'm not the quickest pay. ... Let's say they do a job that's not good ... I'll deduct from their contract, absolutely. ... That's what the COUNTRY should be doing." https://usat.ly/1rg9atC

--FLASHBACK - Reuters, Nov. 13, 2015, "Special Report: Trump's art of the deal - Dispute your bills," by Emily Flitter https://reut.rs/1U4FzRn

WORTH THE CLICK -- "The unlikely friendship of Orrin Hatch and Muhammad Ali," by John Bresnahan: "Ali's wife, Lonnie, asked Hatch to speak at her husband's funeral Friday in Louisville, Ky., Ali's hometown. Hatch said he was honored to do it. '[Ali] helped me by being my friend,' Hatch said in an interview in his Capitol Hill office. 'I have to say that it was one of the great friendships that I've had in my lifetime.'" https://politi.co/1OfZiv7

WEEKLY NEWS QUIZ, by Politico's Diana D'Abruzzo: "Who was left out of Hillary Clinton's victory victory speech? And 11 other questions from the news" https://politi.co/1U4GvVQ

2016 NERDCAST -- "Trump's big-money blues": Politico "national editor Kristin Roberts, senior investigative reporter Ken Vogel, senior correspondent Eli Stokols, senior politics editor Charlie Mahtesian and campaigns editor Scott Bland discuss Donald Trump's inability to raise big money, Hillary Clinton's good week and Elizabeth Warren's VP prospects." https://politi.co/22XFwr0

MIKE MURPHY interview -- "Trump nom - Archaeologists will be studying the ruins for a while," by CNBC's John Harwood : Mike "Murphy, 54, sat down recently with me in a Georgetown tavern ... HARWOOD: "Paul Manafort, Tony Fabrizio who have gone on board with Trump: What is their capacity to overcome some of this resistance with their connections, their knowledge of the party, their ability to talk to Republican audiences?" MURPHY : "The problem is they're like Charlie Manson's fox trot instructors. Yeah, they could teach him how to dance. But he's too busy trying to cut their heads off, because he's insane. So they can add the noise of a campaign. But it's ultimately all about Trump. And Trump's favorite thing to do is rent a hall, read the crowd, tell them what they like to hear, and then get on his plane and watch himself on cable.' ...

HARWOOD: 'Did you make less than $1 million?' MURPHY: 'Yes, I did. Personally, definitely less than $1 million.'HARWOOD: 'Can you say how much?' MURPHY : 'Well, you know, I hate being goaded by the media into, like, releasing my tax returns. I would say, if I did, the year I worked on the super PAC my income went down, not up. I was generously paid, but it was in the mid-to-upper six figures.'" 3-min. video https://cnb.cx/1WHJPqm

2016 PLAYERS - L. A. Times A1, above fold, "Meet Hillary Clinton's BFF: She gives millions and lends an ear, but they don't talk politics," by Evan Halper in S.F.: "Susie Tompkins Buell [is] a wealthy San Franciscan who ranks near the top of the sprawling national network of Clinton benefactors, was obsessing about the candidate's nourishment. Few people in the orbit of the Clintons have done more for their care and feeding than this 73-year-old fixture of Bay Area philanthropy and salon society who wanted nothing to do with politics - she didn't even vote - until a chance meeting with Bill Clinton well into her adult life.

"Buell not only has become a fundraising powerhouse ... She has also become Hillary Clinton's soul mate. Theirs is among a handful of friendships that have been key to fueling the candidate's ambitions ... It reflects the uncanny Clinton ability to build and maintain unyielding loyalty from the people positioned to help them the most." https://lat.ms/25OWm0f

--"Clinton bolsters digital team with DNC staffer," by Gabe Debenedetti: "Clinton's campaign has brought on the [DNC's] longtime digital director as it ramps up operations ahead of its general election battle against Donald Trump. Matt Compton, a three-year veteran of the DNC, will become the presumptive Democratic nominee's deputy digital director, serving under digital director Jenna Lowenstein - with whom he worked at the DNC - and working with chief digital strategist Teddy Goff and senior advisor Katie Dowd." https://politi.co/1WHKc4h

--"Clinton hires Sanders' top student organizer," by Gabe Debenedetti: "[T]he campaign has hired Bernie Sanders' director of student organizing to serve as her national campus and student organizing director ... Kunoor Ojha is the Clinton campaign's first major hire from the Sanders campaign, and her move to a role where she will work with the state teams to mobilize young voters represents a significant step in the former secretary of state's outreach to the Vermont senator's most ardent backers." https://politi.co/1sygamO

SUNDAY SO FAR:

--NBC's "Meet the Press": Steve Schmidt ... David Plouffe ... Roundtable : Tom Brokaw, Hugh Hewitt, Joy Reid, Amy Walter

--ABC's "This Week": George Stephanopoulos interviews Paul Ryan ... Paul Manafort ... Bernie Sanders ... Roundtable: Donna Brazile, Kellyanne Conway, Matthew Dowd, Katrina vanden Heuvel, Bill Kristol

--CBS's "Face the Nation": Bernie Sanders ... Paul Ryan ... Corey Lewandowski ... Panel: Ed O'Keefe, Jamelle Bouie, Ben Domenech, Nancy Cordes

--"Fox News Sunday" - Bret Baier anchors: Trump surrogate: Sen Jeff Sessions, chair, Trump National Security Committee ... Clinton surrogate: Sen. Amy Klobuchar ... Panel: Brit Hume, Julie Pace, George Will, Juan Williams

--CNN's "State of the Union" - Panel: Bakari Sellers, Amanda Carpenter, Andre Bauer Nina Turner

--CNN's Inside Politics, hosted by John King from 8 to 9 a.m.: Peter Baker, Abby Phillip, Jennifer Jacobs, Laura Meckler.

CLEVELAND WATCH - "The launch of Platform.gop, a brand new site where any and all Republicans can offer input on what should be included in the Republican Party platform that will be written at Convention. Since '13 the RNC has taken in feedback from 500,000+ individuals about the direction of our Party. This website enables us to hear even more." www.platform.gop

BEYOND THE BELTWAY ... "MAJOR VICTORY" FOR GUN CONTROL - L.A. Times A1, top of col. 1, by Maura Dolan and Brittny Mejia: "The U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals decided ... that California counties may restrict permits for carrying concealed firearms in public. ... 'It should not be minimized how big a victory this was for gun control advocates,' said UCLA law professor Adam Winkler. 'Not only does it affirm the constitutionality of restrictive conceal-carry laws in California's major cities, it also makes it less likely the Supreme Court will step in.'" https://lat.ms/28ptYAJ

TRANSITIONS: "Correct The Record has hired Margaret Ann Morgan as press secretary. Morgan previously served on CTR's digital team and spent nearly three years in Hattiesburg, Mississippi as a television reporter, covering city and state governments. CTR also hired Yolitzma Aguirre as Latino Booker and Regional Media Specialist. Aguirre was previously director of communications for Latino Leaders Magazine in Dallas, Texas."

--REBECCA COFFMAN is joining R Street Institute as media director. The RNC alum comes from Freedom Partners, where she was communications manager and was previously national press secretary for Generation Opportunity.

CHRIS and twin bro MIKE SCHRIMPF, both Kasich alumni, have launched a new communications and public affairs firm, Red Tack. They plan on doing a mix of corporate, association, and political work. Mike will remain in Chicago and Chris will stay in Columbus. www.redtackstrategy.com

FRAN PERSON, personal aide to Vice President Biden from 2006-14, spoke to a packed D.C. fundraiser of more than 100 former and current White House aides last night in a conference room at AKPD. Person is running for the 5th South Carolina congressional seat currently held by Republican Mick Mulvaney. It's the district once held by the fictional TV star Frank Underwood in House of Cards. Co-hosts included David Axelrod, Jay Carney, Mike Donilon, Ron Klain, Dylan Loewe, Reggie Love, Jeff Nussbaum, Missy Owens, Jake Sullivan, Herbie Ziskend.

--SPOTTED: Pete Rouse, Reggie Love, Stef Feldman, Lou Frillman, Amy Dudley, Maureen Tracey-Mooney, Sudafi Henry, Astri Kimball, Adi Kumar, Eric Feldman, Kendra Lamy, Mike Manatos, Missy Owens, Kate Berner, Annie Tomasini, Moe Vela, David Zikusoka, Rick Wade, Herbie Ziskend.

SEAN BARNEY, former Carper and Third Way staffer, and a U.S. Marine, is running for Congress in Delaware. He hosted a D.C. fundraiser last night with Vote Vets, Reps. Seth Moulton and Ruben Gallego who are also both Marines. Attendees saw a new web ad about Sean being shot in Iraq: https://bit.ly/25Ri93V SPOTTED: Jim Kessler, Joe Trippi and Jon Soltz. 

OUT AND ABOUT: Outgoing White House spokesman Frank Benenati, celebrated his last day before heading to the EPA by joining Lower Press colleagues and Brady Briefing Room regulars with a toast of Jameson at The Exchange last night, then singing and dancing along to Miley Cyrus' "Party in the USA."

BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Candi Wolff, Citi's head of global gov't affairs and former President George W. Bush's chief congressional liaison (h/t Kamran Mumtaz) 

BIRTHDAYS : Jeff Zeleny, CNN's senior Washington correspondent and the pride of Exeter, Neb. ... Sasha Obama is 15 ... Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal is 45 ... John Edwards is 63 ... Eliot Spitzer is 57 ... Jeff Greenfield is 73 ... Nat Hentoff is 91 ... F. Lee Bailey is 83 ... Sidewire's Meredith Carden, a Michelle Obama alum and the pride of Chicago, is 3-0, celebrating with close friends and oysters in Brooklyn (h/ts Herbie Ziskend and boss Tucker Bounds) ... Joe Trippi, political consultant, commentator, author, digital strategist, believer ... Stef Weiss, VP of comms. and knowledge management at America's Promise (h/ts Jon Haber) ... John DiBiase, comms director for gov't affairs at the National Association of Realtors ... Rep. Lynn Jenkins (R-Kans.) is 53 ... NBC's Kate Snow ... Carlos Elizondo, the amazing Social Secretary to the Vice President and Dr. Biden for the past 8 years and the creative genius behind the Beach party last weekend (h/ts Marc Adelman and Courtney O'Donnell) ... Joe Nolan, legislative assistant for Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) ... Chad Rhoades, general counsel for Sen. Tillis (h/ts Daniel Keylin) ... Paula Burris of the American Association for Justice, "the best Administrative Assistant anywhere" (h/t Randy White) ... Daryn Iwicki, senior trainer and curriculum specialist at AFP's Grassroots Leadership Academy ... 

... Shirlethia Franklin, deputy chief of staff and counselor to Attorney General Loretta Lynch ... Thomas Showalter, director of the National Youth Employment Coalition and a Kennedy/Harkin HELP alum ... John Yoo ... Al Mottur, shareholder of Brownstein Hyatt ... Square's Semonti Mustaphi Stephens, a Michelle Obama alum and the pride of Crystal, MN ... Charmion Kinder, comms. manager for Disney Citizenship at The Walt Disney Company and a Michelle Obama alum ... WSJ's Corinne Ramey ... Suzy Vilmain ... Louisa Wachs ... Jim Wisley (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) ... John Pearson ... former Oklahoma Gov. Brad Henry ... Courtney Pearson Drake ... Jan Ruckman ... Pete Slover (h/t Dick Keil) ... Chris Merriman ... Teryn Norris, director of energy technology at PIRA Energy Group and a DOE alum ... Prince Philip is 95 ... Football Hall of Famer Dan Fouts is 65 ... Elizabeth Hurley is 51 ... Olympic gold medal figure skater Tara Lipinski is 34 ... Kate Upton is 24 (h/ts AP)

** A message from the Coalition for Fiscal and National Security: The Coalition for Fiscal and National Security is chaired by Admiral Mike Mullen, and includes Albright, Baker, Brzezinski, Chertoff, Gates, Hadley, Hagel, Hamilton, Hayden, Kissinger, Napolitano, Nunn, O'Neill, Panetta, Paulson, Ridge, Scowcroft, Shultz, Volcker, Warner, and Zoellick. This bipartisan group has released a new statement to draw our country's attention to the fact that America's global leadership requires a foundation of fiscal sustainability and economic growth, and to the urgent need to update and reprioritize our defense and foreign policy strategies to reflect a changing security environment. The Coalition is convened by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. Read more: https://bit.ly/CFNS2016 **

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