POLITICO Playbook: WHAT’S NOT WORKING for ’16ers: Remember Jeb ‘shock and awe’?

THE CONVERSATION: GLENN THRUSH on "Five 2016 strategies that have already failed: For starters, letting Trump bully you": "1. Smile and do nothing when The Donald hits you. For all his bravado, Trump grew up a ... rich kid in a Forest Hills mansion. But he learned early ... the rule of the Queens schoolyard: If you smack the other kid - and he doesn't punch back - his lunch money is yours. ... 2. Rand Paul: Redefine what it means to be a 'Republican.' ... 3. Jeb Bush: Shock and Awe. Remember the distant past (the early summer) when Jeb! had it all figured out? ... 

4. Hillary Clinton: Get off my lawn. ... 'There is no doubt that she needs to find a consistent, authentic voice, which means shedding caution and chucking scripts,' Axelrod says. 'Authenticity is a leading indicator in presidential elections, and this is her test. But if candidates were equities I would buy a lot of HRC shares right now. I think they are trading low.' ... 5. Scott Walker: Fly under the radar. ... After a lackluster first debate performance, he now sits at about 6 percent nationally, and 5 percent in must-win Iowa." https://politi.co/1F13Bpf

By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; [email protected]) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; [email protected])

Good Friday morning - love short weeks. It's 9/11. At 8:45 a.m., President Obama, the First Lady and White House staff will observe a moment of silence on the South Lawn. Fourteen years ago today - Tue., Sept. 11, 2001 - the lead of the N.Y. Times (the shortest shelf life for any newspaper in history) was: "KEY LEADERS TALK OF POSSIBLE DEAL TO REVIVE ECONOMY: BUSH IS UNDER PRESSURE."

FRIENDS SAY that after watching Biden on "Colbert" last night, they think he's LESS likely to run. Hard to see how you say this, then come back in a couple weeks and say you're all-in: "I don't think any man or woman should run for president unless ... they can look at folks out there and say, 'I promise you have my whole heart, my whole soul, my energy and my passion.' ... And I'd be lying if I said I knew I was there. I'm being completely honest. Nobody has a right, in my view, to seek that office unless they are willing to give it 110 percent of who they are." https://bit.ly/1F111iS... https://politi.co/1XSyxhH

--VIDEO: Part 1 https://bit.ly/1UKZlfv ... Part 2 https://bit.ly/1Nlvw4n

A REPUBLICAN explains why Trump keeps calling Jeb "a low-energy person," and why it irritates Bush so much: "It's like he's saying he's low T."

JEB BUSH, in N.H. to JAKE TAPPER, on CNN's "The Lead," re Trump: "I think he believes that he can insult his way through the presidency and I don't think history is a really good guide for that. I think he needs to begin to say what his vision is for the future ... I think Governor Jindal is absolutely correct that he's not a serious candidate. ... Look, I don't get it. I don't see how over the long haul that you can insult your way to the nomination or the president -- certainly not the presidency, and not the nomination either. ... 

"I'm pretty confident I'm going to be the Republican nominee." 

5 DAYS TO DEBATE - "Fiorina will appear in top-tier CNN Reagan Library debate," by CNN Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta: Five are in the 6 p.m. J.V. debate; 11 are on the main stage at 8 p.m.

--"[R]ankings based on an average of all qualifying polls: ... 1) Donald Trump: 23.929 ... 2) Jeb Bush: 11.500 ... 3) Scott Walker: 9.429 ... 4) Ben Carson: 8.929 ... 5) Ted Cruz: 6.286 ... 6) Marco Rubio: 5.643 ... 7) Mike Huckabee: 5.571 ... 8) Rand Paul: 4.714 ... 9) John Kasich: 3.214 ... 10) Chris Christie: 3.143 ... 11) Carly Fiorina: 2.229 ... 12) Rick Perry: 1.814 ... 13) Rick Santorum: 1.214 ... 14) Bobby Jindal: 1.057 ... 15) George Pataki: 0.529 ... 16) Lindsey Graham: 0.471." https://cnn.it/1FB5VOz

--"CNN Staffers Complain to Jeff Zucker About Obsessive Trump Coverage," by The Wrap's Jordan Chariton: "At a network town hall on Thursday, producers complained about the obsessive coverage, ... including airing full campaign rallies ... One producer expressed concern that the network ... bumped an Anderson Cooper special on the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina ... to air a post-Trump-rally hour hosted by Don Lemon. On ... Trump coverage, Zucker simply responded 'we are not perfect.'" https://bit.ly/1i31uql (h/t Politico Media Pro)

STRATEGERY - N.Y. Times, bottom of A1, "In 2nd G.O.P. Debate, Trump's Rivals Seek Points, Not Knockout," by Patrick Healy and Jonathan Martin: Jeb and Carly "are expected to take on Mr. Trump most aggressively ... Bush's advisers say he will confront Mr. Trump for not 'sharing the values' of conservatives ... Rubio, ... frustrated that the last debate did not give him many chances to talk about foreign policy, ... will look for openings to win over Republicans who are most concerned about the nation's security ... Rand Paul ... hopes to shore up his Tea Party support by talking about [restraining] the federal government." https://nyti.ms/1KIqUXq

OK, WE GET IT! USA Today p. 1A today, "On the trail, Rubio has missed the most votes of any senator" ... NYT, July 15, "Rubio Has Missed Most Votes This Year of Senators Running for President" ... Politico, Feb. 18, "Rubio tops list of absentee lawmakers."

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FOURTH QUARTER - N.Y. Times 2-col. lead, "DEMOCRATS HAND VICTORY TO OBAMA ON PACT WITH IRAN: Senate Vote Ensures Nuclear Deal Will Take Effect Without Veto Battle," by Jennifer Steinhauer: "Obama is likely to go down in history as a rare president whose single biggest foreign policy and domestic achievements were won with no Republican votes, a stark departure from his 2008 campaign that was fueled by the promise of bridging Washington's yawning partisan divide. As with the Iran accord, the health care law - passed exclusively with Democratic votes - was a policy achievement that has come to define his presidency, in part through the vehemence of its opponents in Congress." https://nyti.ms/1KIqEaW

--WashPost, top of col. 1, "U.S. is set to take in 10,000 refugees: Figure reflects pressure over response to Syrian conflict, migration crisis," by Juliet Eilperin and Carol Morello: "[T]he United States has lagged far behind several European countries in its refugee aid efforts, largely due to the time-consuming screening procedure to block Islamist militants and criminals from entering the United States under the guise of being legitimate refugees. Almost 1,600 Syrian refugees have arrived in the United States since the civil war began [in 2011] ... 

"Many of the Syrians so far have ended up moving to Michigan and California, where there are sizeable Arabic-speaking communities and where they often have family living." https://wapo.st/1L64DRK

SUNDAY SO FAR: 

--"Fox News Sunday": Kasich ... Refugee crisis: Senate Homeland Security Chair Ron Johnson and Senate Foreign Relations Chair Chris Murphy ... Power Player: John Urschel, Baltimore Ravens ... Panel: Brit Hume, Julie Pace, George Will, Juan Williams

--CNN's "State of the Union" - Jake Tapper, from the Reagan Library: Walker ... Panel: Dana Bash, Hugh Hewitt, Ana Navarro (so good: "CNN Political Commentator, Good Friend of Senator Marco Rubio & Supporter of Jeb Bush"), Van Jones 

--ABC's "This Week": Carson ... Roundtable: Steve Inskeep, Robert Costa, Kristen Soltis Anderson, Maria Cardona

--CBS's "Face the Nation": Trump via ... Carson ... CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker poll results ... Axelrod ... Panel: Peggy Noonan, Peter Baker, Gwen Ifill, John Heilemann

--NBC's "Meet the Press": Sanders ... Christie ... Roundtable: David Brooks, Ron Fournier, Sara Fagen

KARA SWISHER of Re/code waterboards N.Y. Times Executive Editor DEAN BAQUET at a conference in N.Y. on Wed. evening: "I wanna give you a little quiz on your social-media practices ... You're the leader of this company that's gotta change ... You Twitter?" Dean: "No. Maybe twice." Kara: "Yes, it IS twice, actually." Dean: "I would be lying if I said it was for some philosophical reason, but it's for time." Kara: "I guess GIFs are out." Dean: "Right." Kara: "Do you, uh, Snapchat?" Dean: "No." Kara: "Why, because it's for the kids?" Dean: "Time. Time. Time." Do you Perisocipe?" "No. Time." Kara: "Vine?" Dean: "Time." Kara: "I'm getting a little thin here. Meerkat?"

--WHAT DEAN SHOULDA SAID: "Let me turn the tables on you. I know that you do ALL of those things. Those seem like a HUGE distraction. How many unique visitors do you have? How many paying subscribers do you have? What is the average amount each of them pays? Well, congratulations on Meerkatting." https://on.recode.net/1UKXLKD

LEAKED INVITE -- "Jeb Bush Deploys George W. Bush to Court Pro-Israel GOP Donors," by Mother Jones' Russ Choma: "[T]he former president was scheduled to meet in New York City behind closed doors [yesterday] with some of Jeb Bush's top donors. The topic of this pay-to-attend exclusive luncheon session with W was to be the United States' 'special relationship' with Israel." https://bit.ly/1QrY24l

CLICKER - OBAMA ALUMNI -- Arun Chaudhary post on Medium, "Photo Gallery: The First 100 Days of the Bernie Sanders Presidential Campaign": "We have selected fifty-one photos to show the political revolution in practice as this campaign touches all corners of the country." https://bit.ly/1EXjnRR

HOT ONLINE: Jeb photo-bombs NH1's Paul Steinhauser on a live hit -- 18-sec. video https://bit.ly/1FAHJMq

--Weekly Standard, "Clinton Campaign Collapses": "Shortly before the start of a 'Grassroots Organizing Meeting with Hillary Clinton' at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, the backdrop of the stage fell down." America Rising video https://tws.io/1gdj5KU

--"This Is Why You're Losing, Hillary Clinton" - Esquire: "Watch her whip! Watch her nae nae! Watch her face settle into a desperate and mirthless grin as she strains to look like a regular human being! ... Ellen's DJ tWitch came over to teach her this year's Hot New Dances, and because the whole world is one big Iowa State Fair for the next 14 months, Hillary had no choice but to learn, and to leave us with this indelible mental image." 18-sec. videohttps://bit.ly/1M0AcLw

TV TODAY - "30 for 30 film on George W. Bush's first pitch post-9/11 to air on ESPN Friday morning," by Dallas Morning News' Julie Fancher: "It will be shown immediately after the moment of silence at 8:46 a.m. [and a second time at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2] ... The film focuses on Bush's ceremonial first pitch during Game 3 of the 2001 World Series ... [and] features interviews with Bush and [Laura]; ... Condoleezza Rice; former Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter; ... Rudy Giuliani; former Yankees manager Joe Torre; former CIA Director George Tenet; and former Secret Service Agent Nick Trotta." https://bit.ly/1O4Xkvw

MEDIAWATCH -Parade magazine, "Sunday With Lester Holt: The Bass-Playing News Anchor Rediscovers Weekends Off," by Beverly Keel -- Q: "Is it different reporting the news vs. watching?" A: "After 9/11 it took almost a full year in which the flood of emotions came over me, because at the time we were so focused on covering this fast-moving story. We weren't experiencing it like the rest of America. We were in shock and horror, but the tears didn't really flow until the one-year anniversary, which hit me very hard. This is also nice." ... Q: "What do you love about working in news?" A: "I love that I have a job where no two days are the same. I like the dynamic nature of what we do. We witness life turn on a dime and how people's lives can just flip-flop - a horrible tragedy, winning a $100 million lottery." https://parade.com/lesterholt

--MSNBC has hired JACOB SOBOROFF as a correspondent. Soboroff previously co-hosted Pivot TV's "TakePart Live," and was also a host on "Huffpost Live."

--Brett Zongker, who has been at the AP for more than 11 years there, including 9 on the arts/culture beat, is joining the media team at George Washington University.

FIRST LOOK -- "The Red Arrow Diner, a New Hampshire Political Institution , to Be a Broadcast Center for SiriusXM during the First Presidential Primary": https://bit.ly/1XOsj2l

ROBYN BASH PROMOTED -- Tom Nickels has been promoted to EVP of gov't relations and public policy at the American Hospital Association, and Robyn Bash has been promoted to VP of gov't relations and public policy operations at the association.

WEDDING - MOLLY BOYL to ADAM FROMM -- Pool report: "On a perfect La Jolla day last weekend, Molly Boyl, counsel at the Science, Space and Technology Committee, and Adam Fromm in Rep. Issa's congressional office,tied the knot at the St. James by the Sea church, where Molly's family have been members for over 50 years, and the church she was baptized in. ... Special guest appearance by Congressman Darrell Issa, who brought the couple together when they found themselves working at the Government Reform Committee. Some are calling it one of the best achievements from the 112th Congress." Pic https://bit.ly/1i2xYRt

WELCOME TO THE WORLD: Rana Dayananda Singh was born Tuesday, 45 YEARS TO THE HOUR of the birth of father, Vinay Vijay Singh , senior adviser at Commerce's International Trade Administration, and mother Priya Dayananda, KPMG lobbyist. Baby RDS weighed 8 pounds, and is looking forward to the Philly Eagles opener and palak chaat at Rasika. Pic https://bit.ly/1IZm7cw

BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Charlie Szold, Iowa GOP's comms. director (h/t girlfriend Anastasia Voskresenskaya, who was on time)

BIRTHDAYS: Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson is 58 (hat tip: Luiza) ... Markos Moulitsas, Daily Kos founder and publisher is 44 ... Nels Ericson (h/t Cathie, Anders, Tate, Gus) ... Ted Olson is 75 ... Maria Bartiromo is 48 ... Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is 50 ... former Sen. Daniel Akaka ("Aye!") is 91 ... Politico's Joe Schatz, on the ground in Brussels doing reporting before launch of Politico Pro's Europe Brief (h/t Marty Kady) ... Politico's Kara Nelson, Sammy Yaish, Gloria Pazmino ... Claude Marx ... Pete Breen is 4-0 ... Gaylord Lanham ... Marit P. Babin Stout ... Jon Downs ... Lee Verstandig ... Liz Kennedy ... Maura Hogan, alum of Cowan, State and Kerry, now an MBA candidate at Boston College ... Cyrus Artz, legislative director for Rep. Virginia Foxx ... Bob Packwood ... Sharon Gallagher, partner/co-founder at Sage Communications (h/t Jon Haber) ... 

... Gordon Bronson, alum of OFA, White House and Interior ... Ian Solomon, Obama Senate and Treasury alum, former U.S. executive director at the World Bank, now at the University of Chicago (h/t Sarah Nolan) ... Robin Givhan ... Walter Alarkon ... Dianna Plantan ... Bruce Koeppl ... Leticia Reyes ... Wendy Kloiber ... Paul "P Flo" Florence ... Tom Boyd, co-chairman of DLA Piper's Government Affairs Group ... Elizabeth Feldman ... Rob Lalka ... Maya Spanderashvili ... Kyle Gerron ... Karen E. Watson ... Brooke Salkoff ... actress Betsy Drake is 92 ... movie director Brian De Palma is 75 ... sports reporter Lesley Visser is 62 ... Harry Connick Jr. is 48 ... Jon Buckland (Coldplay) is 38 ... Ludacris is 38 ... Charles Kelley (Lady Antebellum) is 34 ... actress Mackenzie Aladjem is 14 (h/ts AP)

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