POLITICO Playbook: TRUMP-MENTUM EDITION! THE DAY TRUMP GOT REAL: D.C. catches on
INSIDE THE CAMPAIGNS -- "Cruz, Rubio prep for brutal debate night: In final show before Super Tuesday, the senators are poised to unleash a nasty assault and emerge the anti-Trump," by Alex Isenstadt in Houston: "Rubio has yet to aggressively engage Trump - and those briefed on his strategy say he's unlikely to [at tonight's debate at University of Houston; 8:30 p.m. ET on CNN. Rubio] has concluded that going after Trump would accomplish little, given the businessman's supporters are deeply committed and unlikely to swing Rubio's way. ...
"Rubio's team has decided his best bet is to focus fire on Cruz. They think the Texas senator's voters are less committed and could swing Rubio's way should Cruz fade. The only way to dislodge Trump ... is to turn it into a two-man race - meaning that they first need to get Cruz out of the way. ... In recent weeks, he has been aggressively appealing to Rand Paul for an endorsement. Yet three sources close to the Kentucky senator said Paul had rebuffed Cruz, saying that he had no intention to endorse anyone anytime soon." https://politi.co/1QfYJzY
--"RNC sees leverage over Trump: The GOP has resources to dangle in exchange for some message discipline from their presumptive nominee," by Daniel Strauss: RNC "chairman Reince Priebus has begun stating in private meetings that the party has sway over its at-times unwelcome front-runner because it has tools Trump will need to use to win a general election -- voter data and field, digital and media operations." https://politi.co/24r1557
By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; [email protected]) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; [email protected])
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Good Thursday morning. Chris Krueger of Guggenheim Partners wins the morning with "How Rubio Can Trump Trump -- The Conditional Probability Path" in his D.C. Download: "Trump could well be the Republican nominee on the morning of March 16 - the math is the math and his delegate lead could well be unstoppable. In our minds, the only realistic alternative is for Marco Rubio to win the first two winner-take-all states on March 15 in Ohio and Florida. We have predicted a Rubio nomination since August and he remains (in our opinion) the only candidate who can win the nomination other than Trump. Though we are also realists and concede that this is more unlikely than it is likely at this point.
"Our Rubio conviction is challenged by his requirement to post successive wins - which are based off of other candidates dropping out. Rubio essentially needs Ted Cruz to crater in his adopted home state of Texas on Tuesday (Super Tuesday/SEC primary - March 1) and for John Kasich to lose in Michigan on March 8. That would give Rubio enough time to - in theory - consolidate the 'anti-Trump' vote before the critical March 15 primaries (aside from winner-take-all Ohio and Florida are the delegate rich Illinois, North Carolina, and Missouri) where he could slingshot into the Utah and Arizona primaries on March 22 (the Mormon Primary - Arizona winner-take-all and Utah could be with majority) and the northern states in April.
"The third scenario (scenario #1 is Trump runs table and scenario #2 is Rubio shoots the moon) is that no candidate secures 1,236 delegates after the final primaries on June 7 and we are going to Cleveland on July 18 without a GOP nominee - this is entirely possible with Cruz and Rubio staying in the race through April. The debate tonight is the final one before Tuesday's critical primaries. Bottom line: the nomination is Trump's to lose via the fractured GOP prisoner's dilemma and he could put it away on March 15, though Rubio is basically the Last of the Mohicans and still has a path."
CHRIS drops the mic!
TOP TWEETS: @hughhewitt: "Lessons of @realDonaldTrump campaign: Do all earned, national media. All of it. Often. Have fun. Spark it up. Never use talking points" ... @Taniel: "Trump alone got more votes in Nevada [Tuesday] night (34,531) than there were voters in Nevada's 2012 caucuses (32,961)" ...@CGasparino:"interesting campaign gossip: @MikeBloomberg supporters say he is open to running as @HillaryClinton's no 2 ...stranger things have happened" ... @felixsalmon: "A Clinton-Bloomberg ticket would make a lot of sense for both of them, and all but guarantee the election." ... @MarkHalperin: "Billionaire self-funding front runner Trump apparently has ZERO TV ads on in Super Tuesday states. Today sorta last day to add buys"
DONALD DOMINATES -- "Trump-mentum smacks Capitol Hill in the face: Anxiety, anger and the first glimpse of support surface in Congress as lawmakers reckon with the reality TV star as their likely standard bearer," by Lauren French and John Bresnahan: "Some Republicans are now comparing Trump to Ronald Reagan ... Others are saying he's more Barry Goldwater, who led the party to disastrous defeat. Some think he's unhinged; many others still don't know what to make of him. Reps. Chris Collins of New York and Duncan Hunter of California became the first sitting Republicans to endorse Trump." https://politi.co/1oJbhWA
--"Rep. Franks circulating letter calling for Cruz or Rubio to drop out of race," by Lauren French: "A senior House Republican is asking fellow lawmakers to sign on to a letter that urges either Sen. Marco Rubio or Sen. Ted Cruz to drop out of the presidential race for the good of the GOP. Rep. Trent Franks [R-Ariz.] sent the letter" last evening. https://politi.co/1LHlJT6 ... https://bit.ly/1LHvTmy
--MATT TAIBBI in Rolling Stone, "How America Made Donald Trump Unstoppable: He's no ordinary con man. He's way above average - and the American political system is his easiest mark ever": "The first thing you notice at Donald Trump's rallies is the confidence." https://rol.st/1QzCwIS
--"A Look Inside Trump's Global Deals Exposes Trouble in Many Spots," by Bloomberg's Stephanie Baker and Tim Higgins: "[A]n examination of his operations abroad reveals that, while he has made many millions selling his name, he has chosen a number of inexperienced ... partners, sometimes infuriated buyers and associates and moved late into saturated markets, producing less income than advertised." https://bloom.bg/1Q3iPvY
** A message from U.S. Travel Association: Airports are essential to a robust American economy , but outdated infrastructure, reduced capacity and limited choices for travelers constrain efficiency and growth. FAA renewal should adjust the Passenger Facility Charge (PFC) cap to help airports evolve and meet the demands of modern air travel. bit.ly/1QLPK5L **
HILLARY STRATEGERY -- BEN SMITH, "The Only Strategy For Hillary Clinton Is To Scorch The Earth": "In reality, nobody is that excited about Hillary Clinton, and young voters, women and men - the foot soldiers of any Democratic Party movement - aren't coming around. ... And that means that when she faces a Republican, she will have to destroy him - something the people who will be doing the destroying acknowledged when I asked them earlier this month. 'The slogan is "Be Afraid. Be Very Afraid,' said Paul Begala ... an adviser to the pro-Clinton super PAC Priorities USA. ... [T]he broad theme of ... attacks will be that 'the Republican Party has gone insane.'" https://bzfd.it/1p782rU
TRANSITIONS - "Ryan Walker joins BP as Senior Director, Federal Government Affairs," reporting to Mary Streett -- Geoff Morrell, BP's SVP of U.S. Communications & External Affairs, announces new member of his broader team: "Walker joins BP after 8 years serving as chief of staff to Congressman Bob Latta (R-OH-5) [where BP has a refinery]. Walker will represent BP with members of Congress and their staffs, focusing on downstream issues.
"Prior to his service with Congressman Latta , Ryan spent 5 years with the late Congressman Paul Gillmor (R-OH-5) serving lastly as his Legislative Director. Ryan also has extensive campaign experience, most recently serving as campaign manager for Congressman Latta's 2014 re-election campaign. Ryan is from Defiance, Ohio, and lives in Burke, Va., with his wife, Kirsten, and two children."
--"Freedom Caucus hires new executive director," by Lauren French: "Justin Ouimette [is] currently the policy director for the Freedom Caucus ... [and previously worked in] South Carolina Rep. Mark Sanford's office as a legislative director. The hire means the Freedom Caucus has officially passed on hiring Ed Buckham, a controversial former top aide to Tom DeLay and central figure in the Jack Abramoff scandal." https://politi.co/21iZVtp
BITE DU JOUR -- TAPPER'S TOUGH LOVE TO TWO TRUMP-DENIERS: On yesterday's "The Lead," Jake Tapper (who'll moderate the Miami GOP debate March 10) listened to S.E. Cupp and Ana Navaro talk about how Marco Rubio could still pull it out. Tapper: "You guys sound like, I mean I hate to say this, I'm a loyal Philadelphia Phillies fan. You guys sound like Philly fans." Cupp: "This could be our year!"https://cnn.it/1KLAUQ9
COMING ATTRACTIONS -- "Romney: Trump's tax returns may contain 'bombshell,'" by Nolan D. McCaskill: "Phoning into Fox News on Wednesday, Romney called for the top three Republican presidential candidates to release their tax documents - especially Trump. Romney accused Trump of 'dodging and weaving' on the issue, noting that he had been vague about when he would make the records public. 'We're gonna select our nominee. We really ought to see from all three of these fellas what their taxes look like to see if there's an issue there ... I think in Donald Trump's case, it's likely to be a bombshell." https://politi.co/1Leu4m5 ... https://bit.ly/1RpnE2Y
--@realDonaldTrump: "Mitt Romney, who totally blew an election that should have been won and whose tax returns made him look like a fool, is now playing tough guy" ... @danpfeiffer: "GOP establishment figures coming out and saying they won't vote for Trump will undoubtedly not be the thing that stops him"
RUBIO to Megyn Kelly last night: "I'll admit he's the front-runner and that I am certainly an underdog, but I have been an underdog my entire life." https://bit.ly/1T8JY4u
WORST-TIMED EDITORIAL -- WashPost lead editorial, "The moment of truth: Will the Republican Party defend itself against a bullying demagogue?" (online: "GOP leaders, you must do everything in your power to stop Trump"): "History will not look kindly on GOP leaders who fail ... to prevent a bullying demagogue from becoming their standard bearer. ... Is the Republican Party truly not going to resist its own debasement?" https://wapo.st/1LcZrh7
THE NARRATIVE: USA Today, above fold, "TRUMP DOES THE IMPOSSIBLE - AGAIN: Candidate continues to defy naysaying experts and predictions of meltdown" ... N.Y. Times 2-col. lead, "G.O.P. Fears What's Next If Trump Can't Be Stopped," twinned over "Candidate Often at Odds With Orthodoxy" and "Rubio Has Party, but Not Time, on His Side" ... WashPost 2-col. lead, "GOP trio must act fast to stall Trump: MOGUL COULD BE OUT OF REACH BY MARCH 15 - Home states may seal the fates of Cruz, Rubio, Kasich" ... L.A. Times 2-col. lead, "GOP coming to terms with Trump's rise Republican leaders continue to resist his candidacy, but some say they'd back him" ... WSJ A1, above fold "Cruz Faces Must-Win Challenge In Texas."
JON WARD, "Why Chris Christie never went after Donald Trump": "'It's ironic to me ... For a good part of my career I got criticized for taking too many people on. Now those same people are saying I didn't take on Donald Trump enough.'" https://yhoo.it/1oJaTqU
THINGS TRUMP SAYS -- "Donald Trump Said A Lot Of Gross Things About Women On 'Howard Stern,'" by BuzzFeed's Andrew Kaczynski and Nathan McDermott : "[T]he roots of Donald Trump's rhetoric come, in fact, in part from The Howard Stern Show. Trump appeared upwards of two dozen times from the late '90s through the 2000s with the shock jock ... Trump frequently discussed women he had sex with, wanted to have sex with, or wouldn't have sex with if given the opportunity. He also rated women on a 10-point scale." https://bzfd.it/20Wva83
TERROR COMES HOME - USA Today banner, "ISIL-linked video targets Facebook, Twitter CEOs," by Jessica Guynn in S.F.: "A video purportedly made by supporters of the Islamic State makes direct threats against Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey for combating terrorism on their Internet platforms. The 25-minute propaganda video was released by a group calling itself 'the sons of the Caliphate army.' In it, photographs of both technology leaders are targeted by bullets. The video was spotted by Vocativ deep web analysts on the social media service Telegram, which is used by ISIS." https://usat.ly/1mZguHO
--"War on terror comes to Silicon Valley," by John Shinal for USA Today: "While Facebook has removed terrorist material for some time, this week Zuckerberg made a point of publicly supporting efforts to fight terrorism. In a speech ... to the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, he said: 'If we have opportunities to basically work with governments... We feel a pretty strong responsibility to help make sure that society is safe.'" https://usat.ly/1mZgEyV
--"Apple has option to make FBI court victory moot," by Politico Pro cybersecurity reporter David Perera:"Though Apple may not win its court fight with the FBI over iPhone security, it has technical options that could render any government victory effectively moot. A few minor changes in the design of future iPhones could make it impossible for anyone - including law enforcement and Apple itself - to skirt the device's security." https://politico.pro/1QGzE35
LIFE ONLINE - "Facebook rolls out expanded Like button reactions around the world," by The Verge's Casey Newton: "For the first time, you'll be able to react to friends' posts with something other than a gesture of pure positivity. Long press on the Like button and you'll now see 'love,' 'haha,' 'wow,' 'sad,' and 'angry,' and posts will now show the mix of reactions they've received. ... Testing in Spain and Ireland led to two reactions being trimmed from the initial list: 'yay' and 'confused.' In both cases, users who posted the reaction once were unlikely to use it again." https://bit.ly/1LeKZFi
--N.Y. Post cover, "FACE LIFT! Finally, moods on Facebook" https://nyp.st/1LHpQOT
MEDIAWATCH - "CNN Seeing Dividend From Its Investment in Politics," by Nick Corasaniti on NYT A18: "Live town hall meetings are not a new invention in the televised coverage of presidential politics. But with anchors like Mr. Cooper moderating, fact-checking and bantering, CNN has turned the genre into a powerful supplement - if not antidote - to the often-acrimonious debates ... Committing $50 million more than it spent in 2012, CNN added 45 journalists to its political team." https://nyti.ms/1QzCRLL
--"PBS NewsHour Names Award Winning Correspondent John Yang to Staff": "Yang most recently served as a Chicago-based correspondent for NBC News." https://to.pbs.org/1Lex5CV
FUTURE OF MEDIA -- "Letterman And Leno Fans Have Given Up On Late-Night TV, Says TiVo Research," by International Business Times' Oriana Schwindt: "According to TiVo's data, 69 percent of Letterman's audience is nowhere to be found; only 11 percent of his devotees have followed 'Late Show' into the era of Stephen Colbert ... 16 percent of Leno's fans made the transition to Jimmy Fallon fandom, and 12 percent found solace in one of the other three talk shows ... That's 72 percent unaccounted for." https://bit.ly/1QFXjAP
MARTY BARON, WashPost executive editor, "I'm in 'Spotlight', but it's not really about me. It's about the power of journalism": "One journalist wrote me that 'the story that inspired the movie serves as a wonderful, wonderful reminder why so many of us got into this business in the first place and why so many stayed despite all the gloom and doom and all the left hooks' ... A reporter for a major national publication said he had gone to the movie with his entire family. 'My kids suddenly think I'm cool.'" https://wapo.st/1p7u51n
SPOTTED: David Gregory having drinks at The Jefferson during last night's rush hour downpour.
GRETCHEN CARLSON appears in the premier episode of the 4th season of House of Cards, playing herself interviewing Monica Crowley and Juan Williams: "In this crazy year of Presidential politics it was an honor to be cast for 'House of Cards' Season 4 premiere episode as myself on 'The Real Story' set. Politics is what I do every day so that came naturally. The extra perk was finding out I wasn't killed off by Frank pushing me in front of the subway."
TV TONIGHT - "During a special 8 PM ET 'College Tour' edition of Hardball, Chris Matthews will sit down in front of an audience of students for a one-on-one conversation with Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders live from Sanders' alma mater, the University of Chicago."
--"Yahoo Global News Anchor Katie Couric interviews Jane O'Meara Sanders, wife of Presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders, about the state of the presidential race" at 9:30 a.m. today.https://yhoo.it/1TzBLog
MILESTONE -- "Beijing overtakes NYC as 'Billionaire Capital of the World,'" by AP's Gerry Shih: "The Chinese capital has overtaken the Big Apple as home to the most billionaires - 100 to 95 - according to Hurun, a Shanghai firm that publishes a monthly magazine and releases yearly rankings ... Rupert Hoogewerf, the founder of Hurun, attributed China's explosive wealth creation to Chinese market regulators allowing a flood of new [IPOs] after holding back new IPOs for several years." https://yhoo.it/1Q2WA9r
SNEAK PEEK - TIME's cover story on Driverless Cars, "No traffic. No accidents. No deaths. All you have to do is give up your right to drive." TIME Assistant Managing Editor Matt Vella: "Self-driving cars will likely join digital surveillance and unmanned drones among the advances and controversies that mark our times. Freedom vs. security, that quintessential quandary of the 21st century, will frame the transition from human drivers to more-skillful computers." . https://bit.ly/1KL6tti
DEEP DIVE -- "Kerry's world's fair dream crushed by debt: Dozens of vendors built a chic U.S. pavilion at last year's Milan expo, but no one knows how to pay them," by Sarah Wheaton: There are "nearly 40 ... merchants in Italy and the United States whose unpaid invoices total $26 million." https://politi.co/1QfPWxS
FIRST LOOK - "Planned Parenthood Votes' Million Dollar Ad Buy": "The campaign, which will run in Texas, Virginia and Michigan, includes videos, a digital ad buy, mail and phones, and highlights Clinton's defense of Planned Parenthood and women's health." https://bit.ly/20WujEw
OUT AND ABOUT: Rep. Jared Polis hosted the launch event last night for the Congressional LGBT Caucus's new political arm, Equality PAC, at his swank Capitol Hill townhouse. Polis co-chairs the PAC with Rep. Mark Takano, who noted the 114th Congress is "the gayest congress yet -- that we know of."
--SPOTTED : Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi and Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer; Barney Frank, PAC Board members: Reps. David Cicilline, Joe Kennedy, Ruben Gallego, Elizabeth Esty, Gwen Moore, Grace Meng, Derek Kilmer, Dan Kildee, and Suzan DelBene; also Reps. Mark Pocan, John Carney, Jan Schakowsky and Barbara Lee; on the non-elected side: CAP's Laura Durso, Diego Sanchez, Mary Beth Stanton, the always glamorous Sarah McBride, Monisha Smith, Kirk Freeman, Suzanne Beall, Ali O'Donnell, Joe Paone, Tarn Goelling, Brian Huseman, David Stacy, Sean Meloy, Justin Friedman.
OUT AND ABOUT in HOUSTON: "FamousDC took over Houston with [a pre-debate] party ... at one of Houston's hottest restaurants, Batanga. The venue was packed with elite guests including Sean Spicer, Zeke Miller, and Alex Swoyer among others who all enjoyed delicious cocktails and food, live music and [a] damn good time." https://bit.ly/1VGb2Wi
HAPPENING TOMORROW - 6th annual battle of the journalism bands at Journopalooza: "[P]roceeds [go] to reporters working in conflict zones in Iraq and Syria. Andy Sullivan [of Reuters is] playing in Hot Pocket, a 1980s cover band that also includes WashPost columnist John Kelly and author Dan De Vise, a WaPo alum. ... Other notable acts: [defending champion and 'possibly the world's only band with three Pulitzer Prizes'] Suspicious Package, featuring cartoonist Tom Toles, Josh Meyer of NBC and Tim Burger ... the Nativemakers, featuring Carl Hulse of the New York Times; Nobody's Business, featuring Jonathan Landay of Reuters and Freddie Kunkle of the Post. Shark Week, featuring Daniel Newhauser of National Journal and Notaries Public, featuring Emily Crockett of Vox." https://bit.ly/1QGvhFn ... https://bit.ly/1SWPLK3
REMEMBERING DAVID SHUSTER's DAD ARNOLD - He posts on Facebook: "[M]y dad passed away early [Wednesday] morning. As my amazing brother Jon Shuster so eloquently noted, Dad was a strong, willful man with an easy smile. We learned so much about fatherhood from him. Dad's greatest legacy was his unconditional love and joy for all things family." https://on.fb.me/1QfwbTK
WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Winston and Stephanie Lord: "Levi Thomas Lord entered this world on Friday, February 19. It was a story for the ages -- we had an unintended and unattended home birth as Levi just couldn't wait any longer to meet everyone. He was two weeks early, and Stephanie and he are doing great. ... He is named after Levi Dykes (Stephanie's 4th great grandfather who fought and died for the Union during the Civil War) and Thomas Lord (My 9th great grandfather who walked 100 miles with his family from Cambridge, MA to found Hartford, CT)." https://bit.ly/1oJ9pNj ... https://bit.ly/1VGbxzV
--"CNNI Supervising Producer Camille Elhassani and her husband Georgia Tech mathematics professor Matt Baker announce the birth of their son Sami Abraham Baker. He came into the world on February 12th after 41 hours of labor weighing in at 8lbs 8ozs. Mom, dad and baby are all doing well."
BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): CBS News embed Jackie Alemany (h/t Peter Hamby)
BIRTHDAYS: Bob Schieffer, the pride of Austin, is 79 ... Keith Smythe Meacham (hubby tip: Jon) ... Andy Rosenthal, NYT editorial page editor ... Tom Nides, vice chairman of Morgan Stanley and former Deputy Secretary of State under Hillary Clinton (h/ts Virginia, Jon Haber, Ben Chang) ... Andrew Burk, VP of digital at FP1 Strategies (h/t Meredith McPhillips) ... Barbara Levin, VP of comms. at CNN ... Lauren Kapp, president of Prospect Media Group and a HuffPost and NBC alum ... Jessica Yellin (h/t Feldman) ... WashPost alum Anne Kornblut, director of strategic comms. for Facebook ... Politico's Hadas Gold and Matt Dixon ... Miro Weinberger, mayor of Burlington VT ... Dan Riordan (h/ts Jon Haber) ... Hollis Gurley, the pride of Friona, TX, and a Shared Employee for too many Members of Congress to list here (h/t 1-800-Reception crew) ... Jack Burns, son of Mike Burns, Rep. Payne, Jr.'s comms director, and future Playbook contributor, is 1 ... Greg Crist, longtime GOP communicator and current S.V.P. of American Health Care Association ...
... Bridgett Frey, deputy campaign manager and comms. director at Van Hollen for Senate ... Paul Nash ... A Texas trio: Texas GOP consultant David White ... RSC chairman U.S. Rep. Bill Flores (R-TX) ... Austin American-Statesman alum Arnold Garcia, now at Crosswind Media & Public Relations ... Bayanne Surdashi ... Bob Healy ... Trey Graham ... OFA alum Laurin Manning ... Jonathan Nabavi ... Charles Faulkner ... Stuart Wagner ... Gloria Torres ... Julie Goldman ... Harrison Clark ... George M Urban ... Jim Mulhall ... Christina Sanchez ... Genevieve Craggs (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) ... country singer Ralph Stanley is 89 ... humorist Jack Handey is 67 ... Tea Leoni is 50 ... comedian Carrot Top is 49 ... singer Julio Iglesias Jr. is 43 ... Chelsea Handler is 41 ... Rashida Jones is 40 ... rock musician Erik Haager (Carolina Liar) is 29 (h/ts AP)
DESSERT -- "'Damn, Daniel' Was On 'Ellen,'" by BuzzFeed's Michelle Regna: "Meet Josh and Daniel. Josh is the voice behind "Damn, Daniel" and Daniel is the one with the Vans. They are only 15 and 14 years old ... One day after school, Josh decided to compliment Daniel on his outfit and post it to his Snapchat, as teens do these days." https://bzfd.it/21iC0u3
** A message from U.S. Travel Association: How can Congress fix what's wrong with flying? Adjust the Passenger Facility Charge (PFC) cap to help airports improve outdated infrastructure, restore air service and competition, and adapt to post-consolidation air travel. FAA reauthorization is a critical moment to do this. The PFC user fee provides local authorities with the ability to finance airport infrastructure enhancements and address issues that benefit travelers, as opposed to the inefficient status quo that surrenders control to Washington. Without action to provide airports with necessary tools to modernize, air capacity constraints will severely limit economic growth. bit.ly/1QLPK5L **
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