POLITICO Playbook: TRUMP, CRUZ dominate as others struggle – JEB’S MONEY SHUTS OFF

PLAYBOOK IN-BOX - A smart Republican's take on last night Fox Business debate: "To me the morning story is that if GOP was worried about Trump or Cruz on Monday, today they're terrified. These two dominated the debate. ... Cruz and Trump separated even further from pack ... Rubio/Christie 3rd place draw, Jeb/Carson/Kasich might as well stay home. ... [It's] Cruz and Trump, rest fighting to stay alive. Sad - but true. ... Trump has had his best debate performance to date. It pains me, but its true. ... Marco was fine. Always looked polished. But Trump and Cruz controlled conversation ... Marco had to interject to be involved ... 

"The party is starting to look like the banks on Wall Street did in April 2008: 'What did we do?' ... There's no fixing this -- buckle up."

A WELL-KNOWN DEMOCRAT writes: "Rs had a two and half hour debate, no one laid a glove on Trump. Hillary eviscerated him in 30 seconds on the Tonight Show."

JUST POSTED - "Obama gets what he wanted in the GOP debate: The president wins a seat at the center of 2016," by Isaac Dovere: "When Hillary Clinton popped up at the sixth Republican forum, it was only as an extension of Obama. But most of the time, the GOP's 2016 presidential candidates didn't even bother with their 'Obama's third term' talking point, instead landing right on Obama himself. ... Obama spent his State of the Union trying to assert a rosier vision of America now and in the future. The Republicans responded by going even darker." https://politi.co/1PfjJBY

By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; [email protected]) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; [email protected])

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It's 17 days to Iowa, 25 days to New Hampshire. "Morning Joe" is in Des Moines, with Donald Trump on-set at 7 a.m. ET. Two can play this game: Hillary Clinton PHONES IN at 8:35 a.m.

--Dallas Morning News p. 1A, above fold, "Cruz, Trump shatter truce: Pair spar over Texan's eligibility, opponent's 'New York values,'" by Todd Gillman in North Charleston, S.C.: "The bromance officially ended Thursday night." https://bit.ly/1SlK7kj

--"Trump More Than Doubles National Lead in NBC/WSJ Poll," by NBC's Mark Murray: Trump 33% ("his highest percentage in the poll") ... Cruz 20% ... Rubio 13% ... Carson 12% ... Bush/Christie 5%. "Trump's 13-point lead over Cruz is an increase from last month, when he held a five-point advantage," 27%-22%. https://nbcnews.to/1Pvw6dI

TOP TWEETS: @mattbai: "We're now at the point where either Trump is going to roll through the primaries or all political polling is going to henceforth be a joke" ... @Bencjacobs, political reporter for The Guardian: "When asked if his campaign was a direct mail scam, Ben Carson answered 'not that I know of.'" ... @FrankLuntz: "My focus group says ... #GOPDebate winner is @TedCruz. He is no longer a 'long shot'" ... 

... @JoshuaGreen: "Jeb seems like a nice man who has learned nothing during the long course of this campaign" ... CNN's @teddyschleifer: "Remember when Ted Cruz refused to get drawn into a 'cage match' w/ Donald Trump, who is a 'good friend' and someone he 'likes and respects'?"

WHAT IOWA IS READING - Des Moines Register p. A1, above fold, "Trump magic seen as wish for a leader:His charm with voters is found in the intangible quality of leadership," by Jennifer Jacobs: "More of Trump's supporters describe themselves as gun enthusiasts, neoconservatives and anti-Wall Street than supporters of his closest rivals -poll leader Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, in third, and Ben Carson, fourth."

--"Trump rents Iowa theater to show Benghazi movie," by Jennifer Jacobs: "'Trump would like all Americans to know the truth about what happened at Benghazi,' the GOP presidential candidate's Iowa co-chair Tana Goertz said Thursday night. Trump will pay for the showing of '13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi' at 6 p.m.[tonight] at the Carmike Cobblestone 9 Theatre at 86th Street and Hickman Road [in Urbandale]." https://dmreg.co/1Om4oCn ... Trailer https://bit.ly/22V1lbX

SHOT: TRUMP in debate: "And we don't need a weak person being president of the United States, OK? Because that's what we'd get if it were Jeb -- I tell you what, we don't need that." AUDIENCE: "Boo."

CHASER: JEB AD, "Enough," includes clips of Bush saying: "Donald Trump is a jerk. ... At what point do we say, 'ENOUGH of this'?" 1-min. YouTube https://bit.ly/203zmnR

MICHAEL BARBARO: Cruz beat Trump -- NYT A18 (A1 tease), "Once Dismissed, Cruz Emerges as a Slashing and Skilled Debater": "Cruz did not just dominate, ... he slashed, he mocked, he charmed and he outmaneuvered ... For the first time, ... Mr. Trump was in the position that so many who have tried to challenge him ... flustered, frustrated and unable to regain his footing." https://nyti.ms/203sHKt

--N.Y. DAILY NEWS cover, "DROP DEAD, TED - Hey, Cruz: You don't like N.Y. values? Go back to Canada." https://nydn.us/233OGU4

GLENN THRUSH, "Five takeaways from the GOP debate": "1. Cruz out-bullies Trump. ... 2. Marco Rubio: Hey guys, don't forget about me! ... 3. Ben Carson surgically removed himself from contention. ... 4. Jeb Bush was the only one speaking the real language of the presidency. ... 5. Chris Christie is cruising." https://politi.co/1Q2nLAL

** A message from the National Retail Federation: In response to President Obama's State of the Union address, NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay notes, "It's time for Washington to recognize that we do best when the government isn't tying the hands of entrepreneurs and job creators behind their backs through federal mandates or promoting special interests over those of real people who just want to work." Read more: https://bit.ly/22ZwtqK **

TOP TALKER -- "Bush donors await green light to jump ship," by Anna Palmer and Ben White: "[T]he money spigot is shutting off ... [Most of two dozen major donors we interviewed] say they are waiting for what one veteran Republican and former Bush 43 administration appointee described as the 'family hall pass' to jump to another campaign after the New Hampshire primary. ... 'Hey, I need you to throw away money on Jeb -- out of loyalty,' a Bush fundraiser has told donors recently. ... Much of Bush's Wall Street support network will shift to Rubio." https://politi.co/203NPAo

LATE-NIGHT BEST - JIMMY FALLON gives Hillary a mock job interview for president: "How did you hear about the position?" Hillary: "Fourth grade social studies." ... Jimmy: "What are your strengths?" Hillary: "I'm tenacious, determined, I've gotten results." Jimmy: "Can you type?" Hillary: "I can, in a pinch." Jimmy: "Are you a one-finger typer or a two-handed?" Hillary : "On a real keyboard, I can actually type with more than one finger, but on an iPhone, it's hard, I gotta tell you, I'm still struggling. You know what I really get annoyed by? Their spellcheck takes the word I'm trying to type and totally throws it out and puts something else in that has no meaning whatsoever and then I have to start all over."

JIMMY: "Let's not veer off the questions, Hillary. Again, we're interviewing you for this job. It's good for a stand-up comedian maybe, but not for this job." Hillary: "Well you've got to have a little bit of that, don't you think, Mr Fallon?" Jimmy : "You're chatty, Hillary. You're a little chatty Cathy. ... Lastly, is there an email address we can reach you?" Hillary laughs: "You can follow me on Snapchat." 3-min. video https://bit.ly/1OSL4hA

POWER PLAYERS -- "Former NFL player joins Ryan's staff," by Jake Sherman: "Derrick Dockery played football at the University of Texas ... and appeared in the Cotton Bowl. The offensive lineman was drafted by the Washington Redskins and ... went on to play for 10 seasons in the NFL and earned an MBA from George Washington University. Ryan ... has hired Dockery, 35, to help him build coalitions with state and local governments and the business community. Dockery first came to Capitol Hill in 2012, as an intern on Ryan's Budget Committee. ... [H]e went to work for Rep. Jason Chaffetz ... Ryan hired him at the end of last year." https://politi.co/1TZadXS

FOX INTRIGUE - @RupertMurdoch: "Another big debate tonight. Thanks Roger Ailes again for another great production. Keep 'em coming better and better than competitors."

-- GABE SHERMAN on NYMag.com, "With Roger Ailes Absent, Fox News Is Drifting -- There Isn't Even a 'Trump Strategy'": "Fox ... generates as much as 30 percent of Murdoch's profits. 'He wants a smooth handover,' one executive told me. Right now the two leading internal candidates are Michael Clemente, who's in charge of news, and Bill Shine, who oversees Fox Business. ... [D]uring this year's ... primary, Fox isn't functioning like the disciplined campaign it's historically been. 'There's no directive on anything,' one anchor told me. 'There used to be directives on everything, and now there's not, which is kind of nice.'"  https://nym.ag/1Ptciri

MEDIAWATCH -- "Sunday With: Chuck Todd," by Kathleen McCleary in this weekend's Parade: "I loved my old Sunday routine. I had a way of watching all of three and parts of five [Sunday morning news] shows. I miss reading the Sunday New York Times and the Washington Post at a more leisurely pace, while having the iPad open, drinking coffee. ... Politics and history were big in my house. I was forced to watch the prime-time news conferences with Jimmy Carter or Ronald Reagan or the debates or conventions. I didn't realize until I went to school that I knew more about the elections than anybody else. 

"I like that you can follow it like you follow sports. Keeping track of politics uses a similar part of the brain-a lot of stats, a lot of numbers, competition, whether it's on the field or on the trail. ... I love my [Sunday] 2 o'clock nap. Somewhere around then I totally hit the wall.'" 3-4 hours: How much sleep a night he gets since taking over as "Meet the Press" host ... 2.5 miles: The distance of his daily 4:30 a.m. run. https://bit.ly/1NaFL7r

SUNDAY SO FAR: 

--CNN's "State of the Union": Jake Tapper has Trump (tape) and Sanders.

--CBS' "Face the Nation": John Dickerson sits down with Sanders tomorrow in Burlington. Also tapes Rubio tomorrow; Kasich is live. Panel: Molly Ball, Mike Gerson, Tavis Smiley, Jerry Seib

--"Fox News Sunday": Cruz ... Speaker Ryan ... Panel: George Will, Karl Rove, Carol Lee, Chuck Lane ... Power Player: Corey Lewandowski, Trump Campaign Manager

--"Meet the Press": Bernie ... Jeb ... Amal Clooney, international human rights lawyer ... New NBC/WSJ poll numbers

GOOD LUCK WITH THAT -- "RNC member urges party to rally against Trump," by Alex Isenstadt in Charleston : "At a breakfast at the RNC's winter meeting, Holland Redfield, an RNC committeeman who represents the minority-rich Virgin Islands, ... made clear that angry voices in the party posed a grave threat to the GOP's future ... Redfield said he had received a warm response." With video https://politi.co/1Zznjlx

--"Anti-Trump Cavalry That Never Came," by BuzzFeed's McKay Coppins : "Trump is leading every national poll by 10 points or more - and while single-digit candidates and their backers spend millions to bludgeon each other on TV and radio, they've barely lifted a finger to take on the frontrunner." https://bzfd.it/1JNGKjg

STUART STEVENS, Romney strategist, on DAVID AXELROD podcast, "The Axe Files," from the University of Chicago Institute of Politics: "Donald Trump is ... somebody who's changed parties five times which is, you know, more than he's changed wives, and he's able to manipulate that. ... He's selling hate. And there's always a certain market for hate. And I think ultimately it's a loser's market. ... I think that Donald Trump is like a zeppelin, floating overhead. This large slow-moving hydrogen-filled thing just waiting for people to start poking. And he is incredibly thin-skinned." ... 

AXE: "Would you support him if he were the nominee?" Stevens : "Oh, God no -- not in a million years. ... I think if Donald Trump were the nominee - which I don't think he will be - there will be a very strong third-party candidate." https://bit.ly/1Wdfvk3

BEING THERE -- "Google sponsors a souped-up spin room," by Hadas Gold: "Reporters entering the filing center at the North Charleston Coliseum ... encounter[ed] interactive video walls, 360-degree and virtual-reality camera equipment, YouTube studio setups, roving Google staffers to help them use all of it and baristas to hand out local food and coffee drinks ... Google ... partnered with the [RNC] to pimp out the filing centers at GOP debates. ... Harbinger Outreach, the firm that physically puts the rooms together, spent three days with a staff of about 50." https://politi.co/1JNIk4K

PIC DU JOUR -- @jonkarl: "The Trump folks have come to watch the debate here in the media room. Apparently the audio in their room went out." https://bit.ly/203ru5V

--"The 12 biggest moments of the GOP debate," by Kyle Cheney https://politi.co/1Rp1IHR

SOCIAL -- Top social moment on Facebook: "Ted Cruz: 'I'm not going to take legal advice from Donald Trump' in their exchange about Cruz's eligibility to be president." ... Most engaged states: "1. New Hampshire ... 2. Vermont ... 3. South Carolina ... 4. Virginia ... 5. New Jersey".

--Per Twitter - "Final share of conversation ... 38% Trump 22% Cruz 11% Bush 10% Rubio 9% Carson." ... Top moments: "1. Christie to President Obama, 'kick your rear end out of the White House.' https://bit.ly/203rGC9 ... 2. Trump discusses 9/11 and "New York values.' 3. Trump and Cruz go back-and-forth on polls". https://bit.ly/1SlDbUd

INSIDE THE CAMPAIGNS -- "Carson's finance chief [Dean Parker] resigns amid campaign storm," by Kyle Cheney: "Parker, a tech industry entrepreneur from Mobile, ... recently began earning a $20,000 monthly salary, which veteran campaign operatives say is unusual for what is typically an unpaid, honorary role. ... Many ... expenses were paid through a network of limited liability companies set up for individual consultants on Parker's finance team." https://politi.co/1mZJgZ7

MONEY HONEYS -- "Cruz mega-donors' path to 'kingdom building': The religious billionaire Dan Wilks had run-ins with the law," by Ken Vogel: "A Texas billionaire who has played a key role in boosting Ted Cruz's presidential campaign - including donating millions to a super PAC and facilitating outreach to hundreds of influential religious conservatives - was charged with assaulting a police officer and accused of threatening his estranged wife ... 25 years ago." https://politi.co/1mZJsYC

HOT VIDEO -- "The complete lyrics to the infectious 'USA Freedom Kids' song from the Donald Trump rally," by Nick Gass: "Cowardice Are you serious? Apologies for freedom-I can't handle this! When freedom rings-Answer the call! On your feet! Stand up tall! ... Enemies of freedom Face the music Come on, boys-take 'em down!'Cause the Donald Trump knows how To make America great. Deal from strength or get crushed every time." https://politi.co/1RS1NCu 2-min. video https://bit.ly/1RS1Oq6

FUTURECAST - USA Today, bottom of p. 1A, "White House proposes $4B for self-driving cars," by Brent Snavely of Detroit Free Press and USA Today's Nathan Bomey: "National Highway Traffic Safety Administration regulators said they would seek unified national regulations on self-driving cars. Regulators are also encouraging automakers to run trials. ... Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx said the president's 2017 budget ... includes $4 billion over 10 years for pilot projects, including a program to test self-driving cars by investing in technologically connected roads." https://usat.ly/1Qa8mjM

MAYOR EMANUEL - Chicago Tribune p. 1: "Mayor ducks questions about his knowledge of McDonald case details. Chicagoland, Page 4."

HOLLYWOODLAND - USA Today above fold, "WHITEOUT 2: DIVERSITY A NO-SHOW AT OSCARS -- For 2nd year in a row, no actors of color get a nod," by Patrick Ryan: "[A]ll 20 slots in the lead and supporting acting categories went to white actors. Last year's "whiteout" (the first since 1998) sparked social media outrage and inspired the Twitter hashtag #OscarsSoWhite, which was revived Thursday in response to this year's picks. ... [Underlooked for supporting-actor nomination:] Idris Elba's menacing turn as an African warlord in 'Beasts of No Nation.'" https://usat.ly/203vcfO

--L.A. Times A1, "WHERE'S THE DIVERSITY? The industry faces a new round of questions as another all-white acting lineup causes an outcry. ... It's past time for Hollywood to stop defining a great drama as white men battling against hardship," by Mary McNamara, senior culture editor: "The winner of the 2016 Oscar in practically every category is ... white men facing adversity ... The Hollywood blacklist ('Trumbo'), the vagaries of Wall Street ('The Big Short'), Cold War politics ('Bridge of Spies'), life alone on Mars ('The Martian'), a grizzly bear attack, murderous companions and the hostilities of a cruel winter landscape ('The Revenant')." https://lat.ms/1OuIURz

--CLICKERS -- "Oscar Nominations: Complete List" https://bit.ly/1NaFukW

--DAVID BOWIE on the covers of Billboard https://bit.ly/1P3GS0s ... and The Hollywood Reporter https://bit.ly/1OSmRrL

STATE OF THE ART -- "Change.org Launches Mobile Elections Platform -- 'Change Politics' -- to Increase Citizen Participation": "On Change Politics, every voter can: Submit questions directly to the candidates, and upvote questions so that the most popular rise to the top."  https://chn.ge/1n4mwb2 ... www.changepolitics.org

OUT AND ABOUT ... SPOTTED at the screening of "Soul on Ice," a documentary about the history of black hockey players, at the E Street Cinema, sponsored by the NHL and Washington Capitals: Ted Leonsis of Monument Entertainment/Caps, NHL's Gary Bettman, Bill Daly and Ken Martin, Barry Trotz of the Caps, NHL's Willie O'Ree, who broke the color barrier in 1958 with the Bruins, Anson Carter, alum of MSG/NBC/NHL, Kevin Weekes of NHL networks and an NHL alum, Neal Henderson of Fort DuPont Ice Hockey Club, Lori Mezzanotte of USA Warriors Hockey, CHC players Nick Lewis (UPS), Mike Wertheimer (Rev the Vote), Chris Gullott (Bridgestone Americas), Joe Bowzer (U Army), Brian Cohen (American Gaming Association), Rep. Mike Quigley, Patrick Murphy, acting Secretary of the Army. Trailer https://bit.ly/1OtpzAn

-- Actress and activist Minka Kelly was the guest of honor last night at a DC reception for fashionABLE, an organization and marketplace that empowers women who have overcome challenges ranging from addiction to prostitution. The event was hosted by Kimball Stroud of Impact Arts + Film Fund, Laurie Knight of NBWA, and Marissa Mitrovich of Politiquette.com. Pic  https://bit.ly/1UTqaz5

CONGRATS to Politico Magazine, per Susan Glasser, "for their nomination as a National Magazine Award finalist in feature photography ['Honors the use of original photography in a feature story, photo-essay or photo portfolio'] for Mark Peterson's great photo essay on the 2016 campaign (with demonic Ted Cruz pic), also props to creative director Janet Michaud and Elizabeth Ralph who wrote the captions. This is Politico Magazine's third National Magazine Award nomination in its two years of existence." https://politi.co/1OlMnnz ... Full list of finalistshttps://bit.ly/1RK2vU9

BIRTHDAYS: White House Social Secretary Deesha Dyer, celebrating tonight with dinner with close friends at Woodward Table, then volunteering on Martin Luther King Jr. Day (h/ts Antoinette Rangel and Addie Whiesenant) ... Mark Penn, president and managing partner of private equity firm The Stagwell Group, focused on the marketing services industry, is 62 (h/ts Beth Sidhuk, Matt Schaible, Teresa Vilmain) ... Bush 43 WH alum Scott Stanzel ... Chuck Babington is 62 (we jumped the gun yesterday) ... New Yorker staff writer Jon Lee Anderson ... Lorraine Voles, VP of external relations at GWU (h/t Jon Haber and Teresa) ... Pat White, president of ACT for NIH (h/t Carol Blymire) ... Adam Levine, of Mercury, not the Voice, and a Bush WH, NBC and ABC alum (h/t Keil, girlfriend Jaci Deitch) ... Valeri Vasquez, ex-State/current Cal grad student, is 3-0 (h/t DJW) ... Lisa Garcia, former COS at USTR ... 

... Rebecca Haller, Politico's director of audience insights ... Sam Schulz, senior editor at Politico States and an NBCUniversal alum ...Politico's Dale Bishop ... Sarah Kliff, deputy managing editor for visuals at Vox.com and "Recovering health policy nerd. Obsessive dog owner" ... Katherine LaBeau, policy director and counsel at the Council on Foundations and an OMB alum ... Sadie Belle, daughter of Tali Stein and Mo Elleithee ... CNN's Jeremy Diamond ... Jonathan Lynn, head of comms at the IPCC and a Reuters alum ... Claire DeMatteis, Esq., long-time senior counsel to VP Biden when he was in the U.S. Senate and now general counsel at Affinity Health Plan, Inc. (h/t @AdvisorGlobal) ... Sarah Svoboda, formerly of the NewsHour and BBC America, now a producer for Bloomberg News in D.C. (h/t Ben Chang) ... Christopher Nulty, manager of U.S. public affairs at Airbnb and a Yahoo and SEIU alum ... Daniel Arkin, the morning editor at NBC News Digital (h/t Gary Cohn) ... Mike Hoffman, executive editor and marketing director at TandemNSI and a Military.com alum ... 

... Jonny Hiler, Rex's dad and legislative director for Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) ... Stephen Lewis, producer for MSNBC's "The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell" ... Lisa (Burgess) Belot, senior director of strategic comms for the U.S. Chamber ... Melissa Green, who was Peter Orszag's CoS, and now heads up Rahm's D.C. office ... David Agnew, managing director of Macquarie Group's Infrastructure & Real Assets division and an Obama W.H. alum ... Emily Bradley, director of strategic comms at the Thomas Jefferson Foundation and a "Face the Nation" alum ... Joe Coletti, business strategist in U.S. Municipal Finance at RBC Capital Markets and a vet of McCain N.H. and Ohio ... Teresa Sadaba Garraza ... Joe Fuld ... Bob Brammer (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) ... Jordan Ray ... Gregory Ehrlich ... Erin Matticola ... Eliza Pink ... Erin Lardy ... James Thompson ... Sean Tuohey ... Toni Verstandig ... Todd McKinley ... Israr Khan ... Chad Lowe is 48 ... Eddie Cahill is 38 ... New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees is 37 ... Pitbull is 35 ... Skrillex is 28 (h/ts AP)

** A message from the National Retail Federation: Retailers care about jobs because the industry is the nation's largest private sector employer and the leading creator of jobs. One in four American jobs - 42 million positions - are supported by retail. A third of Americans found their first jobs in retail and nearly two-thirds have worked in retail at some point in their lives, according to NRF research. As of December, retail employment in 2015 had increased by nearly 175,000 jobs over 2014.

Retail jobs are good jobs. Studies show that retail jobs pay wages competitive with similar positions in other industries, that most retail workers are happy in their jobs and that hiring managers throughout the economy value retail experience highly when evaluating job applicants. Unlike other industries that might be concentrated in a few specific locations, retail employees live and work in every city and town from Maine to Hawaii, and retailers are vital members of each community they serve. Learn more at nrf.com/SOTU. **

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