POLITICO Playbook: THE ONCE-IN-A-CENTURY consequence of losing Justice ‘Nino’ Scalia – AN OBAMA CABINET MEMBER who might get confirmed

SUNDAY BEST - Donald Trump to John Dickerson on "Face the Nation," pretaped this a.m. re last night's debate: "I thought this might have been my best performance. ... I could be so politically correct you would be just bored to tears, John. ... [B]ut ... there's a lot of lies out there. ... These are dishonest people."

TRUMP (who told Jeb during the debate: "The World Trade Center came down during your brother's reign - remember that"), on whether he's blaming 43: "I am not blaming him, although ... the CIA said there was a lot of information that something like that was going to happen. I'm not blaming anybody. It's a tragedy. ... His CIA knew about things happening ... But when Jeb gets up and says we were safe under his brother, we weren't safe. ... 

"There were no weapons of mass destruction. I'm not blaming anybody ... [W]e also had an economic collapse at the end of his term. ... Without that collapse, we wouldn't have had Barack Obama. ... This is a crazy business. I deal with Manhattan real estate. These people are babies compared to the politicians -- robocalls put out."

DICKERSON: "Your tax returns. When are we going to see them?"

TRUMP: "I'd say over the next 3 or 4 months." Transcript https://bit.ly/1VdWEo0

By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; [email protected]) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; [email protected])

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SNEAK PEEK ... CBS NEWS Battleground Tracker, to be announced on "Face the Nation": "Trump keeps a large lead in South Carolina ... 42% followed by Cruz at 20% and Rubio at 15%. ... Kasich has gotten a little bounce out of his surprisingly strong showing in New Hampshire, and is at 9%." https://bit.ly/1PKTzZ8

Good Sunday morning, and happy Valentine's Day. Gentlemen: Call your Mom (or aunt or grandma), and thank her for being your first Valentine.

DAVID AXELROD instantly tweeted yesterday that Justice Scalia's death "is a seismic event" for the presidential election that will focus both sides on the stakes. Brian Williams put meat on that bone during an MSNBC phoner with Ari Melber: This is now the rarest of presidential elections - one where control of the White House, Congress and Supreme Court are all in play. MSNBC's breaking coverage pointed out that the Court is of acute interest to the donor class in both parties: Until yesterday, a topic the candidates talked about in fundraisers, even if they didn't hit it on the stump.

RACHEL MADDOW, who went back to her radio roots with a phoner with Ari Melber: "Whenever there's an opening on the Supreme Court, all of American politics realigns." Obama won't replace Scalia with someone with similar inclinations, she went on, so this "hot and unpredictable primary season" is likely to lead to a hot and unpredictable general. Maddow: "Barring some major national security event, this is kind of as big a jolt as we could get." Suddenly the most important place in American politics, Maddow added, isn't South Carolina or Nevada, but the United States Senate. 

DAN ABRAMS , calling in to Tom Llamas on ABC's "World News Tonight," speculated that President Obama might nominate a liberal Republican, or someone who has effectively already been vetted: a sitting or former Senator. 

THINKING OUT LOUD, Maddow floated an intriguing idea: Another example of someone who has already been vetted is a Cabinet-level official in the Obama administration: "The first person who springs to mind for that kind of a scenario is Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson, who is a VERY distinguished attorney, who is a personally very reserved and non-ideological person but has served in several administrations as a top Pentagon lawyer, as a very trusted national security expert and legal mind." Audio of Rachel https://bit.ly/1QAlTNm Jeh Johnson bio https://1.usa.gov/1KOQ5rA

JEFFREY TOOBIN, in a phoner with CNN's Poppy Harlow: "[I]t is worth remembering ... that it is only February. And President Obama is going to be president for another 10 months. That's practically a quarter of his term. If there's no vote on a successor, that will leave the Supreme Court shorthanded for over a year ... Certainly, it would take some time for a new president to nominate and confirm someone." Toobin transcript https://cnn.it/1PwN7a0

JOE SCARBOROUGH pointed out to telethon host Ari Melber that Chief Justice Roberts is the latest in a long line of Republican appointees who have disappointed conservatives: "Scalia was the exception." Scarborough pointed out a potential major campaign topic as a result of the loss of Scalia: Interpretation of the SECOND AMENDMENT - a top issue for the Republican base in South Carolina and nationally - is now "up in the air."

PETE WILLIAMS - who was a calm guest on MSNBC, then had a live hit and track package on "NBC Nightly News," then was back on MSNBC - said Scalia "was considered to be in robust health - never showed any sign that he was slipping, physically or mentally." Williams explained that there are a number of potential 5-4 cases this years - "a real shadow over the rest of the term ... a real cloud over these cases."

SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM, on Fox News, joked that the only Obama nominee he could imagine getting confirmed this year is Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah).

PRESIDENT OBAMA in Rancho Mirage, Calif., just before the GOP debate: "I plan to fulfill my constitutional responsibilities to nominate a successor in due time. There will be plenty of time for me to do so, and for the Senate to fulfill its responsibility to give that person a fair hearing and a timely vote. These are responsibilities that I take seriously, as should everyone. They're bigger than any one party."

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JOHN OLIVER'S LESSONS FOR D.C.: "Think less British Invasion and more British persuasion. In a new #BEInsight, communications firm Blue Engine Message & Media describes what John Oliver and HBO's Last Week Tonight, returning this Sunday, can teach issue advocates about moving an audience. No joke." https://bit.ly/1KOYKKA

6 POTENTIAL NOMINEES, by N.Y. Times: "Merrick B. Garland, 63: Chief judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit [nominated by Bill Clinton] ... Padmanabhan Srikanth, 48: A judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. He was nominated by President Obama and confirmed to the federal bench by the Senate in May 2013 by a 97-0 vote ... Patricia Ann Millett, 52: A judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. Her nomination in 2013 by Mr. Obama (to fill the seat vacated by John G. Roberts Jr. after his elevation to the Supreme Court) was one of three nominations caught up in a Senate debate over the use of the filibuster. ... 

"Jacqueline Nguyen, 51: A judge on the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. She was nominated by Mr. Obama and confirmed in May 2012 ... Kamala D. Harris, 51: California attorney general, an elective post she has held since 2011. She is the first African-American, Asian-American and woman to hold the job. [Currently running to succeed retiring Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.)] ... Cory Booker, 46: A first-term Democratic member of the United States Senate [D-N.J.]." https://nyti.ms/1Qf8cTQ

GET SMART FAST - "Scalia's Death Undercuts Conservative Hopes on Unions, Abortion," by Bloomberg's Greg Stohr: "The clearest impact may come in [a] union dispute, which has threatened to end requirements that public-sector workers in 20-plus states pay fees to their collective-bargaining representatives. Scalia's absence means that, even if union foes can win over swing justice Anthony Kennedy, they probably won't do better than a 4-4 split." https://bloom.bg/1SOwKKf

FOR HISTORY - The headlines: N.Y. Times banner, "JUSTICE ANTONIN SCALIA IS DEAD AT 79: Voice of Conservative Renaissance in Three Decades on the Court" -- See the page. https://nyti.ms/1PwOXI3 ... L.A. Times banner, "SCALIA'S DEATH ROILS CAMPAIGN AND COURT: CRUCIAL CASES COULD FACE DEADLOCK" -- See the page. https://lat.ms/39ZQ8K ... WashPost banner, "Supreme Court conservative dismayed liberals: First Italian-American justice was known for his intellect, wit and biting opinions" ... N.Y. Post cover, "SCALIA DEAD" https://nyp.st/1Xrp7rV ... N.Y. Daily News cover, "SCALIA DEAD." https://nydn.us/vp5qdB

--N.Y. Times Quotation of the Day: SHANNEN W. COFFIN, who was counsel to Vice President Dick Cheney, on replacing Justice Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court: "It has been 80 years since an election-year vacancy has been filled and the politics of the court has changed drastically since those days." A1 article by Mark Landler in Rancho Mirage, Calif., and Peter Baker, "Battle Begins Over Successor as Obama Vows to Press On." https://nyti.ms/1PKNsUH

JEB'S GREAT NIGHT ... GLENN THRUSH "5 takeaways from the GOP debate: Rubio levels Cruz, Bush unleashes on Trump and W. still rules the Republican Party": "Jeb Bush finally beat Donald Trump. It took him eight tries, but the substantive and polite former Florida governor (By "polite," I mean he lets his super PAC do the lead-pipe wet work), finally got under Trump's armor. With nothing left to lose, Bush seemed more confident and less inclined to let Trump get in the last word." https://politi.co/1oBrOeA

JEB to BRET BAIER in live postgame interview, re Trump: "I went to shake his hand and he walked away. So I'm still under his skin."

POSTGAME PANELISTS on Fox, anchored by Bret Baier, loved Rubio. Steve Hayes: "For anyone who thought Marco Rubio incapable of answering questions spontaneously, that was blown away." Kirsten Powers agreed Rubio "bounced back" and "really had the money lines." Charles Krauthammer, talking to Bret from San Diego, rated the debaters 1) Rubio 2) Bush 3) Cruz. Krauthammer: "Kasich played the game of being above it all ... could help him."

TRUMP in the spin room, to Kerry Sanders, live during MSNBC's postgame: "Hillary's worst nightmare is me." The others, he said, "won't win." Steve Hayes said on Fox that Trump "was at some points screaming and yelling."

HOW IT'S PLAYING: The (Columbia) State, banner, "Candidates: Wait on justice" ... (Charleston) Post & Courier lead story, "GOP brawls in Greenville: Bush, Trump lash out, Rubio and Cruz go at each other in heated debate" ... N.Y. Times A1, below fold, "In Fiery Debate, Bush Takes On Scrappy Trump" ... WashPost A1, below fold, "GOP rivals turn fierce in run-up to S.C. vote: Rubio seeks recovery; Trump attacks on 9/11, national security." 

WHAT NEVADA IS READING: Las Vegas Review-Journal p. A1, below fold, "Sanders outspends Clinton on TV ads," by Ben Botkin: "Sanders has spent $2.93 million, while Clinton has paid $1.46 million for campaign ads as of Thursday ... Democrats will caucus [next Saturday], Republicans on Feb. 23." https://bit.ly/1Lo58DC

THE WORLD'S MOST FAMOUS Mock Convention: Washington and Lee University in Lexington, Va. (Mike's alma mater) - Bill Larson, double W&L alumnus (undergrad and law, and longtime Friend of Playbook) emails: "On Saturday, Washington and Lee University's 26th Mock Convention predicted Donald J. Trump will win the 2016 Republican Presidential nomination. The prediction is based on years of research conducted by 56 state and territory chairs, five regional chairs, and two national analysts. Recognizing the Convention's history of accuracy, former Vice President Dick Cheney noted during his address to the students, 'I've been in politics long enough to know that if you want to see where a presidential election is headed, the place to be is at the Washington and Lee University Mock Convention.' 

"Former Speaker Newt Gingrich added, 'I think this every-four-year-project is one of the great, unique learning experiences in America; it really is remarkable.' Mock Convention emulates the actual convention for the party out of power with sessions of speakers, a complete party platform, and full roll call vote. Former RNC Chair Ed Gillespie, Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin, and Rep. Bob Goodlatte joined Cheney and Gingrich at the convention after a parade with floats for each delegation down Lexington's main street. The Convention was the culmination of over three years of work by student leaders, and included participation of nearly every student on campus." See the release, which explains the students' careful choice. https://bit.ly/1Wl4v3t

--N.Y. Times A19, "Students' Mock Convention, Usually Accurate, Predicts Trump as G.O.P. Nominee," by Nicholas Fandos in Lexington, Va.: "For a political culture awash with polls and punditry, the mock convention at Washington and Lee University offers one of the most meticulous and intriguing predictions of its kind, having successfully forecast the nominee of the party not in the White House in 19 of 25 attempts, including all but two since 1948." With awesome pics https://nyti.ms/1QAulfG

BONUS GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Daniel Lippman, filing from NYC:

--"The Wow Factor," by Seth Wickersham and Don Van Natta Jr. in ESPN The Magazine: "Few could have guessed that the league's return would become so bloody, bitter and, most of all, emblematic of how power in the NFL truly works." https://es.pn/1RwQoZJ (h/t Longreads.com)

--"I Was a Super Bowl Concession Worker," by Gabriel Thompson in Slate: "What it's like making less than $13 an hour to serve $13 beers at one of the biggest games on Earth." https://slate.me/1LlmOzM

--"The 'Wellness Craze': Six Stories About Fitness," by Emily Perper on Longreads: "Maybe it's because I'm so enamored with Netflix binges and junk food and sleeping in, but I'd rather read about exercising than exercise myself. Here are several of my favorite stories about fitness magazines, FitBit, yoga and athleisure." https://bit.ly/20Qtnqg

--"The Math Revolution," by Peg Tyre in the March issue of The Atlantic: "The number of American teens who excel at advanced math has surged. Why?" https://theatln.tc/1PRV1MN

--"The Diplomat and the Killer," by Raymond Bonner in The Atlantic: "When four American women were murdered during El Salvador's dirty war, a young U.S. official and his unlikely partner risked their lives to solve the case." https://theatln.tc/1KL1yII (h/t Longform.org)

--"Gravitational Waves Exist: The Inside Story of How Scientists Finally Found Them," by Nicola Twilley on NewYorker.com: "Just over a billion years ago, many millions of galaxies from here, a pair of black holes collided. ... Then, on September 14, 2015, at just before eleven in the morning, Central European Time, the waves reached Earth." https://bit.ly/1Smfn2Q (h/t TheBrowser.com)

--"Head over Heels: Inside Steve Madden's Empire," by BuzzFeed's Doree Shafrir: "Steve Madden's shoes made over $1 billion last year and are in the closet of practically every woman under 30 in America. He may not be an artiste, but that doesn't bother him - most of the time." https://bzfd.it/20sSycY

--"Poverty in Charlotte: 'It Was Never Okay,'" by Lisa Rab in Charlotte Magazine:

"A working mother fights to give her kids a better life in a city where that's next to impossible." https://bit.ly/1mxed6H

ENGAGED: Andy Newbold of W20 Group and alum of Claire McCaskill and NextGen Climate, to his longtime girlfriend, Marli Keeley, on Friday along the Russian River in Healdsburg, Calif. The ring was made by her mom, a jeweler, with Marli's input. Pic https://bit.ly/211A1qD

BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Megan Becker ... (was Friday): Chris Hodgson, both members of Team Scalise, who celebrated jointly at a small get together with members of the Whip and chief deputy whip team at Los Cuates in Georgetown last night (h/ts TJ Tatum)

BIRTHDAYS : ABC's Martha Raddatz, the pride of Idaho Falls ... Mayor of the World Michael Bloomberg is 74 ... Carl Bernstein is 72 ... Hugh Downs is 95 ... former Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.) is 69 ... Ede Holiday, President George H.W. Bush's Cabinet Secretary; and Treasury counsel, the first woman to occupy that job ... Ed Patru, V.P. at DCI Group (h/t Collegio) ... Karen Anderson of KLA Strategies, an Obama CEA, Clinton and Brookings alum, the pride of Athens, Ga., and sweetheart of the economics set ... Alan Blinder, who covers the South for the NYT, based in Atlanta (h/t JMart) ... Oscar Ramirez, principal at the Podesta Group, is 41 ... Dave Cuzzi, president of Prospect Hill Strategies and a BAE and Sununu alum ... Sakina Jaffrey, who plays chief of staff Linda Vasquez on "The House of Cards" ... 

... John Buckley ... Sheila Riggs ... Brooke Lierman ... Kate Sullivan ... Jen Pihlaja, spending her day producing another award winning TV ad (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) ... Jacob Luneau, president of Red Pelican Strategies in Baton Rouge ... Jeremy Robbins, executive director of the Partnership for a New American Economy (h/t Sarah Doolin) ... Dan Walsh, SVP of Valente and Associates and a Greenberg Traurig alum ... Hannah VanHoose, legislative aide for Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mt.) ... Wesley Goodman, a Conservative Action Project and Jim Jordan alum now running for the Ohio House ... photographer Rod Lamkey ... the U.S. Chamber's favorite Aussie, Mark Elliot, EVP of the Chamber's Global Intellectual Property Center ... Sharon Daniels ... 

... Matt Angle, former DCCC executive director and former chief of staff to Rep. Martin Frost ... Galen Main ... digital and political strategist Pete Solecki, a Blue State Digital alum ... Carlos Sanchez, a Pelosi alum ... Colin Van Ostern ... Jenny Nielsen ... Sarosh Mahdi ... WashPost alum John Vockley ... Neal Mann ... Bill Beach ... Alan Feinberg Jr. ... Griff Hathaway ... Gwendolyn Elaine ... Lindsay Jackson ... Mike Inganamort ... WJLA's Brianne Carter ... Gwendolyn Elaine ... Pat O'Brien ... Florence Henderson (Carol Brady on "The Brady Bunch") is 82 ... TV personality Pat O'Brien is 68 ... Teller (Penn and Teller) is 68 ... Pro Football Hall of Famer Jim Kelly is 56 ... actor Freddie Highmore is 24 (h/ts AP)

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