POLITICO Playbook: THE FIGHT TO WATCH: Rubio v. Cruz – WHY MARCO = Obama ’08
SCOOP DU JOUR - "Bush v. Trump: Behind the Vegas rumble Jeb Bush has considered declaring he would not support Donald Trump as the GOP nominee," by Alex Isenstadt and Shane Goldmacher in Vegas: "Prior to the debate, senior Bush aides began looking into the possibility of making a clear break with Trump - potentially with the candidate stating that, if Trump were the nominee, Bush would not support him. ... The Bush campaign has already examined whether such a statement would disqualify him from certain state primary ballots, some of which demand that candidates sign a loyalty pledge." https://politi.co/1RRu9gv
GET SMART FAST - "How Cruz and Rubio exposed the GOP's rift on foreign policy," by Michael Crowley: "Cruz, playing the role of foreign policy realist, said that President Barack Obama had left America less secure by pushing for the ouster of Arab dictators, including Assad, whom Obama insists must leave power. ... [Rubio]'s full-throated support for human rights and democracy echoes, to many Republican ears, Bush's grandiose, transform-the-Middle-East philosophy." https://politi.co/1Roc5LE
By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; [email protected]) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; [email protected])
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Good Wednesday morning. FROM OUR DEBATE TAKEAWAYS: The increasingly raw fight between Rubio and Cruz provides the GOP race's top subplot coming out of fight night in Vegas - two skilled, 44-year-old senators scrapping to survive as the party's not-Trump. It's the fight to watch on both substance and optics: Differing views on surveillance, immigration and defense spending; Rubio's smooth confidence versus Cruz's shrill sureness. Rubio scored an enviable trophy - a banner headline in Wednesday morning's Des Moines Register that says: "Iowans: Trump slips, Rubio shines." This field feels narrower all the time.
Rubio is the Obama of 2008: He rises to big moments, lives up to the hype, and is a gifted communicator and performer. A Rubio adviser said his candidate "is restrained and self controlled -- he does not get in every fight. ... When Cruz dodged the question on his support for the path to citizenship, Marco let it go because he knew the Twitterverse and the commentators would handle it." ... But Frank Luntz emailed from a focus group he was conducting [in Vegas] for Fox News: "Cruz won those exchanges handily. In fact, some people switched sides." ...
Jeb finally showed spine, but is still out-matched. ... "Donald, you're not going to be able to insult your way to the presidency," Bush said, to applause. "[L]eadership is not about attacking people and disparaging people." Even after mustering that, Bush was far from fearsome. Luntz said: "The television is a very intimate medium. It rewards those who speak louder and fight harder. That was Trump, not Bush." Tim Miller, the Bush campaign's communications director, insisted by email that Jeb was "the only one to stand up to Trump -- say he's wrong, and that he's not a Commander-in-Chief ... Everyone else cowered in the face of Trump and the Muslim ban."
Roger Stone, a former Trump adviser who remains an ally, told us: "Trump will never come across as a polished politician, but he withstood the attacks and sustained no damage. Went in the front-runner -- came out the front-runner." ... Ben Carson is like his polls - fading. Saying "boots on the ground" three times in one sentence isn't foreign policy. https://politi.co/1QrTuhI
--Des Moines Register front-page banner: "Iowans: Trump slips, Rubio shines." See the page.https://politi.co/1Yk1DE9 ... Read the story. https://dmreg.co/1k2arRu
BUSH on TRUMP: "He's a chaos candidate. And he'd be a chaos president."
TRUMP: "Jeb doesn't really believe I'm unhinged. He said that very simply because he has failed in this campaign. It's been a total disaster. Nobody cares. And frankly, I'm the most solid person up here. I built a tremendous company and all I want to do is make America great again. ... Honestly, I think Jeb is a very nice person. ... But we need tough people. ... I know you're trying to build up your energy, Jeb, but it's not working very well. ... I'm at 42, and you're at 3. So, so far, I'm doing better."
BUSH: "Doesn't matter. Doesn't matter."
SHOT -- CHARLIE HURT column from Vegas, "'King of Instagram' Dan Bilzerian likes what he sees in Donald Trump: High-living Internet star makes rare political foray": "'I'm not super-political,' he said ... in the lobby of the Trump International Hotel, where he had just stopped by to meet the Bad Boy of politics, ... Donald Trump, ahead of [the] debate. 'He's pro-gun ... Speaks his mind. He's not politically correct.'" https://bit.ly/1JbwI5U
CHASER - "Matt Drudge makes rare live appearance at GOP debate," by Politico's Hadas Gold: "A rare sighting in the CNN GOP debate audience at the Venetian Hotel on Tuesday night: Matt Drudge, ... spotted ... next to conservative commentator Ann Coulter." CNN screenshot https://bit.ly/1UyrJTr
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TOP TWEETS: @RichLowry: "Rubio v Cruz was the main event. I give it to Rubio on pts, but Cruz did just fine. Christie was strong. Trump unscathed" ... @rupertmurdoch: "Donald Trump seems to be getting even more thin skinned! Is flying around the country every day tiring him? Would anybody else." ... @BillKristol: "Hate to say it, but my sense is Trump has had a good debate. If you were for him, no reason to defect. If you weren't sure, he seems sane." ...
@murphymike : "Clear Trump doesn't have any idea what 'nuclear triad' means." ... @davidaxelrod: "Hawks on stage disdain @realDonaldTrump when he says he'd sooner have spent money at home than on foreign wars. But I bet voters spiked up." ... Stuart Rothenberg @StuPolitics: "Dr. Carson, you don't pass on a question, especially after you have complained that you are getting asked questions."
--"All those times Bush used the word 'serious' during the debate," by Politico's Nick Gass: "More than any other candidate, Jeb Bush had one word on his mind: serious ... 'serious' or 'seriousness' no fewer than 12 times." https://politi.co/1T12fNz
THE DEBATE, in a dozen sentences -- Politico's Ben Schreckinger saves the best for last: "Ted Cruz: 'We will build a wall that works, and I'll get Donald Trump to pay for it.'" https://politi.co/1OvJFcA
CLICKERS -- "What you didn't see on TV: Behind the scenes of the debate" - 22 pics https://politi.co/1k1LV2E
HOW IT'S PLAYING: N.Y. Times 1-col. lead, "TRUMP AND RUBIO BECOME TARGETS IN G.O.P. DEBATE: A FOCUS ON TOUGHNESS -- Immigrants and Foreign Intervention Rise as Glaring Divisions" ... WashPost 1-col. lead, "Security issues shape debate: SHARP SPLIT ON HOW TO FIGHT THREATS -- Cruz, Rubio and Paul clash over NSA program" ... WSJ A1, cols. 2-5, "Terror Tops the Agenda During Republican Debate" ... USA Today 1A, at fold, "A fierce time, a fierce debate: Candidates show combative sides" ... L.A. Times A1, cols. 1-2: "Tough talk dominates GOP debate."
SOCIAL 2016 - "New GOP Snapchat Ad Has 'Hillary Clinton' Partying As Foreign Foundation Cash Rains Down," by BuzzFeed's Katherine Miller: "The Republican super PAC dedicated to keeping Hillary Clinton out of the White House will roll out a new series of Snapchat ads with a Clinton double dancing with foreign dictators. The three ads from Future45, the super PAC whose backers include Rubio supporters Paul Singer and Ken Griffin, [ran] during the Snapchat live story for Tuesday's ... debate ... [and] in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, D.C., and, of course, Nevada." https://bzfd.it/1O82YOU
--#GOPDebate conversation on Twitter: Trump 35% ... Bush 13% ... Cruz 11% ... Rubio & Carson tied at 9%"
--Largest follower growth for GOP candidates: 1. @realDonaldTrump ... 2. @RealBenCarson ... 3. @marcorubio ... 4. @tedcruz ... 5. @CarlyFiorina.
--Top Tweeted moments: 1. Trump to Bush, "You're a tough guy, Jeb, I know" www.cnn.it/1TOVDSm ... 2. Trump and Bush debate immigration and security www.cnn.it/1k1oYwF ... 3. Trump: "I...can't imagine somebody booing, these are people that want to kill us" www.cnn.it/1RQT8jU
--Top Facebook moment: Bush and Trump exchange: "You can't insult your way to the presidency."
--Top candidates discussed on Facebook: "1. Donald Trump ... 2. Ted Cruz ... 3. Jeb Bush ... 3. Marco Rubio (third place tie) ... 5. Ben Carson."
COVERING THE COVERAGE -- "Blitzer, Hewitt contain GOP's barroom brawl: CNN's moderators prod candidates to engage with each other, but don't let them get out of control," by Politico's Hadas Gold: "With his silvery aplomb, [Hugh] Hewitt was able to accomplish something that has sometimes eluded some questioners brought into the other GOP debates - take the spotlight off the moderators and keep it on the candidates. It was a reflection of the overall command of the entire CNN team, which produced the smoothest and most informative debate of the raucous campaign season." https://politi.co/1TPd45f
FIRST LOOKS - REP. BARBARA COMSTOCK endorses Marco: "Rubio represents a strong, new generation of leadership who can turn the page from the failed Obama/Clinton policies, focus on the future, rejuvenate our economy, and create a strong, safe and prosperous America that provides everyone the opportunity to experience the American Dream."
--A snippet from Bruce Mehlman (lobbying firm Mehlman Castagnetti) quarterly Washington Update shows, over time, Trump's rising poll numbers, even as he has made continuous and increasingly outlandish remarks. https://bit.ly/1Yf5h7o
BREAKING -- "Ryan unveils budget deal, touts benefits to GOP," by Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Lauren French : "Speaker Paul Ryan unveiled a massive tax and spending package Tuesday night, arguing that the GOP didn't win every fight, but they kept many of their policy preferences in place for the next 10 months. ... The bills will get a vote later this week -- either on Thursday or Friday. The omnibus spending bill will likely be carried by Democrats, who consider it a major victory, while the tax bill will get many more Republican votes. The two pieces of legislation represent the last order of business for the House this year. After the deal was announced, many members of both parties said Democrats won this round on federal spending." https://politi.co/1lOClSS
ON BACKGROUND -- GOP wins in the omnibus: "Lifts the government's 40-year-old ban on crude oil exports. ... Increases defense funding ... Prevents a taxpayer bailout of ObamaCare's risk corridors program. ... Freezes most IRS operations and stops the IRS from suppressing the civic participation of 501(c)(4) organizations. ... Implements new pro-life provisions, including a prohibition on gene editing, and maintains all existing protections, including the Hyde Amendment."
REMEMBERING AP's DOUG WILLIS - AP's Tom Verdin: "Willis, who followed Ronald Reagan from the governor's office to the presidential campaign trail and covered Jerry Brown's first stint as governor during a three-decade career writing about California politics, ... was 77. ... Colleagues recalled him as a congenial but fierce competitor who never forgot a fact or let sources off the hook ... [and was] determined, cordial, tenacious - and a bit rumpled. ... Willis started with the AP in San Francisco in 1969." https://apne.ws/1ZbEZ2Y
REMEMBERING EVELYN LIEBERMAN - Send [email protected] your best memories of her and we'll share them in Playbook tomorrow.
POLL DU JOUR - "Ipsos Calls 2016 Election for Obi Wan Kenobi": "In a head-to-head matchup among Millennials: Darth Vader (27%) would beat Trump (18%) ... Yoda (50%) would beat Clinton (26%) [among millennials], and among the general public the margin is 41% for the candidate from Dagobah, compared to Clinton's 25% against him ... Hillary Clinton would fare better against Vader, winning this hypothetical matchup by 32% compared to 16% to the individual formerly known as Anakin Skywalker ... Among the general public, Yoda would soundly beat real human being Donald Trump 42% to 24%."
FIRST LOOK -- "Mic has hired Celeste Katz as Senior Political Reporter. ... Katz is a veteran newswoman who has been at the forefront of aggressive, fast-moving reporting, most recently at the New York Daily News. She will report to Mic's Politics Editor, Stefan Becket."
MEDIAWATCH - "Guardian US Taps Former MSNBC Exec Richard Wolffe for 2016 Team," by HuffPost's Gabriel Arana: He will be "a columnist helping to cover the 2016 election. Wolffe, who helped launch MSNBC.com in 2013 but left the site in November amid a broader shakeup, will file his first piece on [the] debate." https://huff.to/1TOSRMR
--"Heilemann, Mark Halperin, Mark McKinnon launching Showtime series," by Politico's Hadas Gold: "The [documentary] series, called 'The Circus', will debut in January before the Iowa caucuses and run through election day. Filming has already begun, with McKinnon being spotted regularly on the campaign trail and at debates interviewing political players. Showtime President David Nevins, who has known Halperin since high school, said the show will be in the same vein of their weekly sports series, 'A Season With,' which shows the behind the scenes drama around a sports team's season ... The trio approached Showtime about a documentary series about four months ago, and Nevins said he was immediately interested in the prospect of a real time documentary series as the election unfolded, instead of waiting until after election day."https://politi.co/1UxD1aA
--"Brian Williams Returns To NBC For First Time Since Suspension," by HuffPost's Judah Robinson:"Williams returned to NBC on Tuesday afternoon -- the first time he has appeared on the network since he was suspended in February. Williams led NBC's coverage of a press conference about Los Angeles schools, which were shut down Tuesday morning after an email threatened an attack. He was filling in for current 'NBC Nightly News' anchor Lester Holt, who was out sick. The coverage, simulcast on NBCNews.com and MSNBC, was available to NBC affiliate stations on an optional basis." https://huff.to/1ITElD7
WILLARD SCOTT retires - "Today" looks back on his career: "Willard Scott started as an NBC page in 1950. Now, after a remarkable 65 years at the network, 35 of them at TODAY, he is heading off into retirement. But before he does, the TODAY anchors gather[ed] to look back at highlights of his long career, and former first lady Barbara Bush and former TODAY film critic Gene Shalit pay him special personal tributes." Videohttps://on.today.com/1RnRV4s
SPOTTED at Voto Latino's 2015 holiday party: Larry Gonzalez of the Raben Group, Maria Teresa Kumar and her husband Raj Kumar, Luis Miranda Director of Communications DNC, Eloy Martinez of American Gaming Association and Byron Tau of the Wall Street Journal.
BIRTHDAYS: Politico's Jake Sherman, the pride of Stamford, Conn., is 3-0 (hat tip: Irene) ... Google's Jesse Suskin ... Whitman Spencer Deckard ... Jano Cabrera, corporate SVP at McDonald's and a Burson-Marstellar ... alum Time alum Jim Kelly ... Lesley Stahl is 74 ... Glover Park Group's Jenni "Tiger" LeCompte ... Peter Orszag, vice chair at Citi ... Rebecca Collegio (h/t Jonathan) ... Carol Browner, a top enviro leader of past 25 years and senior counselor at Albright Stonebridge, former director of the W.H. Office of Energy and Climate Change Policy under President Obama, former administrator of the EPA under President Clinton (h/ts Teddy Downey, Ben Chang and DJW) ... Ross Berry, the executive director of the New Hampshire Republican State Committee, is 26 (h/t Theo Meyer) ... CRC Public Relations' Adam Bromberg ... Matt Mariani of the Children's Partnership (h/t Charlotte Brown) ... William Schulz ... Susan Liss (h/ts Jon Haber) ... Emily Gaumer (h/t Teresa Vilmain) ...
... Kelsey Knight, comms. director for Rep. Mike Rogers ... Lesley Stahl ... Bloomberg Politics' Kendall Breitman ... Amy Siskind, president and co-founder of The New Agenda ... Mark Sump, president and CEO at Activate ... John Bailey ... Andrea Taylor Recher ... Whitney Kuhn, publicist and senior account executive at Sunshine Sachs ... AP's Joan Lowy ... Craig Veith ... Jody Murphy, executive director at the Virginia House Democratic Caucus ... Scooter Slade ... Mohammad Reza Noroozpour ... Emily Merwin ... ABC7 alum Doug Culver ... Bloomberg alum Phil Mattingly, who recently left for CNN ... Politico alum Caitlin McDevitt ... RNC alum Tom Kise, now senior comms. advisor at Freedom Partners Chamber of Commerce ... Melissa Wisner ... former Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn ... Sharon Dickens (h/t Claude Marx) ... Elisa Beneze ... former Rhode Island Gov. Don Carcieri ... Christina Mulvihill, Sony's senior director of external relations ... Steven Bochco ... Allison Thompson ... Jodie Steck ... civil rights attorney Morris Dees is 79 ... TV producer Steven Bochco is 72 ... former Nevada Gov. Jim Gibbons is 71 ... actor-comedian JB Smoove is 50 ... Daniel Cosgrove is 45 ... actress Anna Popplewell is 27 (h/ts AP)
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