POLITICO Playbook: EXCLUSIVE: What Marco Rubio is thinking – BUSH BLAME GAME BEGINS
Good Thursday morning. WHAT MARCO IS THINKING: My favorability and poll numbers have remained steady, despite what my media buyers tell me is more than $22 million spent attacking me this cycle -- more than any other candidate. That shows who Jeb and Ted are REALLY afraid of! Attacks on others are minimal, compared to what I've faced: Kasich and Right to Rise have spent roughly $3.5 million in New Hampshire against Trump (including the desk ad that had me in it).
My media wizards tell me Jeb's super PAC, Right to Rise, has run at least $20 million against me, and Cruz super PACs have spent at least $2 million! The negative ads started the first week of December, and continue this week. And those numbers don't include radio and digital, which my guys say is likely several million more.
By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; [email protected]) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; [email protected])
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BITE OF THE DAY -- JOE SCARBOROUGH on "Morning Joe," re the Dems' limited debates: "They made a mistake and it's blown up in their face. ... [I]t seems, today, if there's a nomination [that'll] be locked up quickly, it could be the Republican nomination [for Trump]. I've been talking to so many supporters of Hillary -- so many Democrats over the past week and a half -- and they're just shaking their heads, saying they don't know what's going on, and don't know what's wrong with Hillary, and Bernie Sanders cannot be the nominee. They are going through what the Republicans have been going through for six months."
"BUSH BLAME GAME BEGINS: With Jeb failing, supporters, staff and donors start pointing the finger at the Super PAC's chief, Mike Murphy," by Anna Palmer and Eli Stokols: "They think his attacks on Marco Rubio are doing more harm than good. And they worry that, at the end, all he will have accomplished is the destruction of the Bush family brand. The big-money supporters fueling Jeb Bush's super PAC have found their bogeyman: Mike Murphy, a sharp-witted, Twitter-obsessed veteran GOP ad man who runs the pro-Bush super PAC Right to Rise.
"'It looks like they're blowing the whole thing up , like even if Jeb can't win, they're not going to let anyone else win either,' said a Florida Bush backer and Right to Rise donor ... 'You might as well light all of this money on fire. Most of all, they're hurting the reputation of a really great man.'" https://politi.co/1UdsDUX
TOP TWEETS -- @davidfrum: "How to stop Trump: What if every powerful donor got together, agreed on 1 candidate, & gave $100+ million to his SuperPac. Would that work?" ... @BuzzFeedAndrew: "The Rubio surge is coming -- every pundit since April." ... Michael Barbaro @mikiebarb: "Jeb greets entire Fox news team at this event by name, including crew, shakes their hands. Does not do this with any other member of media".
TOP TALKER -- "Bill Clinton questions Hillary's Super Tuesday plan : The former president is starting to get more deeply involved in his wife's campaign. And he's getting worried," by Annie Karni: "[T]he former president is urging his wife to start looking toward the delegate-rich March primaries - a shift for an organizing strategy that's been laser-focused on the early states. Bill Clinton ... has been phoning campaign manager Robby Mook almost daily to express concerns about the campaign's organization in the March voting states, which includes delegate bonanzas in Florida, Illinois, Ohio and Texas. ... On a recent conference call with allies from March states, the campaign's director of grassroots engagement, Adam Parkhomenko, did not have any answers for surrogates who wanted to know when to expect the arrival of Clinton troops en masse." https://politi.co/1Sz4UAR
JOHN PODESTA on Medium, "The Sanders campaign asked where our climate plan was. I Googled it for them": "Hillary Clinton pledged in her launch speech to make America the clean energy superpower of the 21st century. Hillary also released two bold goals to make America a clean energy superpower, as part of a comprehensive energy and climate agenda: First, to have more than half a billion solar panels installed across the country by the end of her first term. And second, to generate enough clean renewable energy to power every home in America within 10 years of taking office." https://bit.ly/1WwPpZg
MEDIAWATCH -- "Sunday's '60 Minutes' [Charlie Rose interview with Sean Penn] Is The Most-Watched Non-Sports Broadcast This Season - Drawing More than 20 Million Viewers": "It was 60 MINUTES' best ratings in households and key demos since December 16, 2012 and the most viewers for a 60 MINUTES program since Nov. 16, 2008, when the broadcast featured the first interview with President Elect Barack Obama and his wife Michelle."
DECONSTRUCTION -- WashPost Style front, bottom of page, "Critic's Notebook: Notice Sarah Palin's sweater? You were supposed to," by fashion critic Robin Givhan: "Palin chose an eye-catching, silver spangled cardigan for her public endorsement of Donald Trump. ... She [wore] a black pencil skirt topped off with a mini-black cardigan studded with what resembled needle-thin, glistening stalactites. ... [T]o see a politician ... dressed in such a bold manner, was to see someone who has come to steal the spotlight rather than share it." https://wapo.st/1UdD1Mh
** A message from Boeing: In less than a century, Boeing took the world from seaplanes to space planes with decade after decade of innovation, inspiration and wonder. We're proud to celebrate our centennial anniversary as the world's largest aerospace company -- and we're ready to write history for the next 100 years. Come along for a breathtaking journey at boeing100.com. **
DATA DU JOUR -- WashPost's Erik Wemple: "Whereas the cable nets routinely charge under $10,000 for a 30-second spot on a humdrum news night, prices on a Trump debate night can extend into the $200,000 range." https://wapo.st/1WvgaNG
--"Bush, Rubio Have Spent $91M in Ads vs. Trump and Cruz's $8M," by NBC's Mark Murray: "Team Bush: $58.8 million ... Team Rubio: $32.6 million ... Team Sanders: $12.8 million ... Team Clinton: $11.6 million ... Team Christie: $11.4 million ... Team Kasich: $10.8 million ... Team Carson: $4.6 million ... Team Cruz: $4.2 million ...Team Trump: $4 million ... Team Fiorina: $1.0 million ... Team O'Malley: $219,000." https://nbcnews.to/1ZNjb1u
BACKSTORY -- "How the RNC squashed its only conservative-media debate," by Hadas Gold and Shane Goldmacher: "More than a year ago, huddled in secret, the [RNC] began negotiations with conservative news organizations to wrest at least one presidential primary debate from the grip of the mainstream media. It was to be an event by and for the GOP's base, free of the constraints of a big network, to ensure candidates a forum to speak about conservative issues in a conservative frame for conservative voters. ... It was a battle that scarred the newspaper, sidelined a senior RNC official and threatened to damage the Republicans' relationship with one of the most influential evangelical voices in the country." https://politi.co/1V9ldSK
AMERICA RISING's COLIN REED emails: "Crossroads' new ad hitting HRC from the left on hypocrisy over Wall Street donations ... was released Sunday morning to Playbook, and Clinton got asked about it hours later on 'This Week': Fast forward a few hours, and the issue came up again during Sunday's debate ... Now, she's getting hit by Sanders with a similar line of attack ... Now, weeks before the first votes are cast, the issue of Clinton's hypocrisy is bubbling up in a big way, helping drive the conversation and drive coverage."
AIR WAR -- "New group attacks Ted Cruz as a false prophet," by Alex Isenstadt: "Near the beginning of the commercial, [Americans United for Values] cites a POLITICO report from December that Cruz said at a New York fundraiser that he wouldn't make combating gay marriage a top priority." https://politi.co/1RUOhQi
--CRUZ's Rick Tyler responds: "This ad was produced by a convicted felon who lied to a grand jury, it's unsurprisingly not believable."
YOU'RE INVITED: Please join us in downtown D.C. NEXT MONDAY for Playbook Cocktails: a one-on-one conversation with former National Security Adviser Tom Donilon, followed by a keynote interview with former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates about his new book, "A Passion for Leadership." Doors open at 5:30 p.m. at the W Hotel. RSVP: https://bit.ly/1OvLFlC
MONEY HONEYS -- "What Kind of Man Spends Millions [$11M] to Elect Ted Cruz?" by Bloomberg's Zachary Mider : "Mercer [co-CEO of a big hedge fund] is the biggest single donor in the race. ... Some allies privately say they think he's pro-life and opposed to gay marriage, and others say the opposite. ... Unlike many of his peers in New York financial circles, he doesn't shrink from the culture wars. He's supported a campaign for the death penalty in Nebraska and funded ads in New York critical of the so-called ground-zero mosque." https://bloom.bg/1OxjODO
--"Billionaire green activist [Tom] Steyer not ready to back Clinton, open to Sanders," by Reuters' Richard Valdmanis: "Steyer said Clinton's position on energy and climate - which calls for increased use of solar and wind power, lower oil use, and a revamping of the aging U.S. oil and gas pipeline network - was good but needed some work." https://reut.rs/1nyF8QC
PLAYBOOK HIGHLIGHT REEL:
--N.Y. Times A1 in National Edition (inside in N.Y.), "'90s Scandals Have Feminists Wary of Clinton," by Amy Chozick: "deeper debate unfolding among liberal-leaning women about how to reconcile Mrs. Clinton's leadership on women's issues with her past involvement in her husband's efforts to fend off accusations of sexual misconduct. ... Over the years, the Clinton effort to cast doubt on the women included using words like 'floozy,' 'bimbo' and 'stalker.'" https://nyti.ms/20fn23Y
--"As Supreme Court Clerk, Ted Cruz Made Death Penalty His Cause," by NYT's Jason Horowitz: "In interviews with nearly two dozen of Mr. Cruz's former colleagues on the court, many of the clerks working in the chambers of liberal justices, but also several from conservative chambers, depicted Mr. Cruz as 'obsessed' with capital punishment. Some thought his recounting of the crimes - 'dime store novel' was how one described his style - seemed more appropriate for a prosecutor persuading a jury than for a law clerk addressing the country's nine foremost judges.'" https://nyti.ms/1T643XJ
POLL DU JOUR -- NEW WBUR poll of 436 likely New Hampshire voters, "Registered Undeclared (Independent)": Trump: 26% ... Kasich: 15% ... Cruz: 15% ... Jeb: 10% ... Marco: 7% ... Rand and Carson: 5% ... Fiorina and Christie: 4%. https://bit.ly/1lyzxYU
DAILY TRUMP -- "Trump Is Losing the Davos Primary Among His Fellow Billionaires," by Bloomberg's Matthew Campbell, Jacqueline Simmons and Simon Kennedy: "The collapsing center of U.S. politics poses a growing threat to global business, according to Davos delegates ... 'Trump is right now busy chasing the Mexicans,' T.K. Kurien, the [CEO] of Indian information-technology services firm Wipro Ltd., said ... 'But after he finishes with the Mexican story, I am pretty sure he'll train his guns on us.'" https://bloom.bg/1KryCA5
--"Americans: Best and Worst Things About a Trump Presidency," by Gallup's Frank Newport: "More than four in 10 cannot name anything positive about a potential Trump presidency." https://bit.ly/1nad99k
--"Clinton Library set to release [nearly 500 pages of] Donald Trump records," by Josh Gerstein: "The records will detail the Clinton White House's interactions with Trump and his Trump Organization, as well as how Clinton aides prepared to field questions about Trump's entry into the 2000 presidential race, where he sought the nomination of the Reform Party for a few months before dropping out. ... 'Also present is a printed database entry concerning Trump's invitations to White House events, a photograph of President Clinton with Donald Trump at Trump Towers in New York, [and] an autographed copy of Mr. Trump's book The Art of the Deal.'" https://politi.co/23fzkvR
USED NEWS - NYT, in today's paper, "Fading Presidential Hopes Complicate Rand Paul's Senate Re-Election Bid" https://nyti.ms/1ZDVH9E ... Politico's Shane Goldmacher and Anna Palmer, 10/23, "McConnell presses Paul to focus on Senate bid" https://politi.co/1PGJV94 ... Politico's Kevin Robillard, 10/9, "Republicans fret about Paul's Senate seat" https://politi.co/1nzQ00E
SUNDAY SO FAR: CNN's "Reliable Sources" has Brian Stelter interview Marty Baron about his fight to bring Jason Rezaian home.
SNEAK PEEK - TIME's new cover, "The Poisoning of An American City: Toxic water. Sick kids. And the incompetent leaders who betrayed Flint" - Filmmaker and Flint native Michael Moore writes for TIME: "Let me not mince words: This is a racial crime. If it were happening in another country, we'd call it an ethnic cleansing. ... Flint went through a three-decade economic and social assault. Those who could get off the sinking ship-myself included-escaped. And those who were abandoned and left behind? They got their water poisoned." https://ti.me/1SyZQwr ... See the cover. https://bit.ly/1NkLB6z
DAVOS DIARY - BIDEN'S MIDDLE CLASS MESSAGE -- Per Ryan Heath of Brussels Playbook : It was standing room only in the 1500 seat main hall to listen to VP Biden. "I am about access to the middle class. They call me middle class Joe in Washington. That's not meant as a compliment, it means I am not sophisticated ... Middle class is not a number, it is a value set, an idea, a belief in possibilities ... I can define middle class in one word. It's about possibilities ... It's about anyone who works hard can achieve ... [The middle class is] the main reason for political, social and economic stability in our democracies. It is the fiber that holds us together." What used to happen in middle class America: "If you contributed to profitability, you got to share in profitability ... That promise has been broken."
MILESTONES -- "Scientists: 2015 was Earth's hottest year [since records started in 1880]," by Politico energy reporters Darren Goode and Andrew Restuccia: "[D]on't expect the news to change any minds on the presidential campaign trail. ... Wednesday's news opens them up to more attacks from Hillary Clinton and other Democrats who have sought to paint the GOP as anti-science." https://politi.co/1Ucwm5f
--See a Bloomberg animation of the Earth's warming climate in monthly measurements over 136 years: https://bloom.bg/1V9pFRm
--N.Y. TIMES Quotation of the Day - Gerald A. Meehl, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, on record-setting heat in 2015: "The whole system is warming up, relentlessly." 2-col. lead of the paper, "2015 Far Eclipsed 2014 As World's Hottest Year, Climate Scientists Say: A System 'Warming Up, Relentlessly' -Greenhouse Gases Are Blamed," by Justin Gillis https://nyti.ms/1QnZqYo
SPOTTED: Global Strategy Group's Matt Canter, a DSCC alum, and Citi's Kamran Mumtaz, a Bloomberg alum, at the Washington Wizards-Miami Heat game last night in which the Wizards won 106-87.
SEND YOUR spottings to [email protected].
BEYOND THE BELTWAY -- "New Menino Survey of Mayors Reveals Top Priorities for Cities Across the Country" - release from Citi, which sponsored the survey: "Mayors cited the need to fix crumbling roads, grow mass transit, and repair water infrastructure ... while raising concerns about receiving too little financial support from federal and state government." With an Ed Skyler cameo https://citi.us/1ZDScQr
WASHINGTON, INC. -- BETH WILKINSON's new trial firm - "Beth Wilkinson, Alexandra Walsh and Sean Eskovitz, today announced the opening of Wilkinson Walsh + Eskovitz, a boutique law firm of elite trial lawyers who together have tried more than 100 cases to verdict. They will be joined by Eric Liebeler, Brant Bishop and Brian Stekloff in opening up the firm. From its offices in Washington, D.C. and Los Angeles, the firm will represent clients across the country, including the National Football League, Pfizer, Altria, Medtronic, Georgia Pacific and Major League Baseball." https://politi.co/1Nl5Elj
TRANSITIONS - AIRBNB's policy team staffs up -- "This week, members of the Airbnb [public policy] team will be in Washington for the U.S. Conference of Mayors' Winter meeting, where we will discuss how home sharing helps families make ends meet and delivers more tax revenue to cities. ... The team is led by Chris Lehane. ... New additions: Sarah Bianchi is Head of Global Policy Development and Head of Federal Policy. ... Patrick Hannan is the San Francisco Public Policy Lead. ... Michael O'Neil is the Midwestern Public Policy Lead. ... Laura Spanjian is the Public Policy Lead for the Southwest and manages Airbnb's work to make home sharing more environmentally sustainable." https://politi.co/1RApQaA
--Preston Maddock is the new comms. director for the state Democratic Party in Pennsylvania, where he hopes to bring another Dem. senator with him when he returns to DC: "Preston was press secretary for American Bridge ... [and] worked as a spokesman for Alison Lundergan Grimes' senate campaign in 2014, and as press aide at Organizing for Action and President Obama's reelection."
--Jessica Jennings left yesterday as press secretary at the British Embassy, where she's been for five years and has accepted a job as the Deputy Director of Media Logistics for the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.
--"Mercury Welcomes Modia Butler [as New Jersey managing director]": "Butler most recently served as chief of staff in New Jersey to U.S. Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ), overseeing all of Senator Booker's state operations." https://politi.co/1V7OtJM
- Lisa Boothe has announced her new firm High Noon Strategies will focus on political communications and public affairs work. She's worked on the Dan Sullivan and Tommy Thompson Senate campaigns, Capitol Hill for a few different members, been the VP of political polling and public affairs research at WPA Research, and been at the Black Rock Group. www.highnoonstrategies.com
--BRAD BAUMAN and JOSH COHEN's new firm: "The Pastorum Group (TPG), a new full-service communications firm working for progressive candidates, clients and causes opened its doors in Washington, D.C. today." Cohen is an SEIU, DNC and OFA alum. Bauman is the former executive director of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Tory Brown is a principal who previously worked for Media Matters and In the Public Interest and Managing Principal Michelle Coyle served as VP at Rising Tide Interactive. https://politi.co/1KryW1E
--GOOGLE ELECTIONS TEAM adds new Dem leadership: Zach Wineburg is "a veteran campaigner, most recently a Principal at Precision Strategies ... Wineburg's experience includes managing the reelection of Congresswoman Gabby Giffords in 2008, stints at the DSCC and DGA and a member of the senior leadership team on President Obama's 2012 re-election in Iowa. He holds his masters from Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, and undergrad in Poli-Sci from Mary Washington."
--"Fox News Channel Producer Joanna Hill Joins Rational 360": "Joanna joined Fox News in January of 2013 and most recently served as a Washington D.C. Bureau based Guest and Talent Booker for the daytime news program 'Happening Now.'"
--"Cornerstone Government Affairs adds ... Todd Webster, Chief of Staff to Senator Chris Coons": "He joins Cornerstone as a Vice President and immediately boosts the firm's trade, foreign affairs, judiciary, energy, financial services, and telecommunications capabilities." https://bit.ly/1S6AZhP
OUT AND ABOUT -- Perkins Coie Political Law Group hosted an election year kickoff party last night at the National Archives. SPOTTED : Sen. Elizabeth Warren, David Brock, Guy Cecil, Mindy Myers, Marc Elias, Bob Bauer, Amy Dacey, Preston Elliott, Kim Rogers, Stephanie Schriock, Paul Dunn, Sadie Weiner, Zach Wineburg, Anne Caprara, Justin Barasky, Patrick McHugh, Michael Meehan.
--The Smoot Tewes Group rang in 2016 last night at Blue Jacket. SPOTTED at Paul Tewes and Julianna Smoot's soiree were Obama alums Mitch Stewart, Dan Kanninen, Dan Leistikow, Scott Goodstein, Chuck Loveless, Paul Booth, Brett Veerhusen, Lynda Tran & Mark Beatty and Daniel Beckmann, Chris Fleming, Daniel Dozier, Rob Roberts, Aaron Wells, Rich Kotchmar, Jess Maher, Brian Farnkoff, Ross Morales Rocketto and Wildfire Contact's Veronica Young, Josh Grossfield, Emily Parcell.
ENGAGED -- Chandler Hudson, VP of digital at FP1 Strategies, to Adam S. Bair , a senior consultant at Booz Allen Hamilton: "We've known each other since we were babies - we were actually family friends growing up, and we started dating after college. We both moved to DC and the rest is history! He proposed on the rooftop of the Capella hotel in Georgetown, which was filled with flowers and candles and overlooked the canal." 3 pix, with the comment "God is so good." https://bit.ly/1nacxAx
BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Ryan Taylor, comms. director for Sen. Roger Wicker and a Barrasso alum ... Adam Radman, grassroots campaign manager for Americans for Tax Reform ... WTOP's Mike McMearty
BIRTHDAYS : Eric Holder, former attorney general, is 65 (hat tips: Kevin Lewis, Margaret Richardson) ... Gary Locke, former Commerce Secretary and Ambassador to China, is 66 (h/t Jim Sciutto) ... Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen is 63 ... Becca Glover Watkins, comms. director for Sen. Richard Burr and an Issa alum (paw tip: Poppy and h/ts Katy Summerlin and Taylor Holgate) ... Tyler Cowen, GMU economist and Marginal Revolution blogger ... Matt Cooper, political editor at Newsweek and the pride of South Orange, N.J. ... Politico's John Shinkle, the pride of Dayton, Ohio ... Politico's Jennifer Haberkorn ... Jonathan Grella, EVP of public affairs at the U.S. Travel Association (Aggressive!) (h/t Michael Jacobson) ... Philly Daily News' Will Bunch ... Jim Davidson, shareholder at Polsinelli (h/t Jon Haber) ... CNN Washington Bureau Chief Sam Feist (h/t Matt Dornic) ... Chris Donovan, senior producer at ABC News and the pride of New Hampshire, is 41 ... Campbell Spencer (h/ts Hilary and Teresa Vilmain) ...
... Josh Isay , a managing partner in SKDKnickerbocker's NYC office ... Michael Canderson, a Center for American Progress fundraiser and alum of Sen. Tim Johnson (h/t Michael Sozan) ... Jamie Waters, Bush alumnus now VP at Compass Advisers Group (h/t Deckard) ... Subrata De, VP of Multi-Platform Newsgathering at ABC News (we jumped the gun on Monday) ... Roberto Jose Coquis, an OFA and Obama 43 administration alum and a fun, devoted dad and hubby; lover of all things sports n' politics (h/t wife Judy Pino) ... Steve Rosenthal, president of the Organizing Group ... Will Holley, counsel for Marco Rubio for President and a Mercury and Bush WH alum (h/t Peter Watkins) ... Michael Vanzetta ... Elizabeth Wickett ... OFA and DHS alum Jordan Grossman, now chief of staff at HHS' ONC (h/t wife Julie Siegel) ... Kevin Bohn, Washington supervising producer for weekend coverage for CNN ...
... AP's Matt Friedman ... Collin Hansen ... Forrest Brown, campaign coordinator at Unified Social and a PCCC alum ... Tommy McKone, senior associate at Global Security & Intelligence Strategies ... Ron Bell ... Tony Reinke ... Kyle O'Connor, former Obama WH speechwriter, now comms strategist at Nest ... Margaret Olmos ... Josh Warren, Treasury alum now VP of corporate development at BlackRock ... Michael Lemov ... Katie Loovis, director of corporate responsibility at GlaxoSmithKline ... Len Colodny is 78 ... Cynthia Faulkner ... McCain LD Joe Donoghue ... Amy Allman ... Ron Bell ... Jeff Simmons (h/t Teresa Vilmain) ... Tony Reinke ... Margaret Olmos ... World Golf Hall of Famer Jack Nicklaus is 76 ... opera singer-conductor Placido Domingo is 75 ... Billy Ocean is 66 ... Robby Benson is 60 ... Hakeem Olajuwon is 53 ... Emma Bunton (Baby Spice) is 40 ... actress Izabella Miko is 35 (h/ts AP)
DESSERT - "'Star Wars: Episode VIII' release delayed to Dec. 2017 [from May 2017]," by AP's Jake Coyle: "Disney offered no reason for the delay, but rumors have recently swirled that writer-director Rian Johnson ('Looper'), who is taking over for J.J. Abrams, is rewriting the script. Production is set to begin next month in London." https://yhoo.it/1PjAYZ3
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