POLITICO Playbook: DONALD-DOMINATED DEBATE is potential nightmare for Jeb, Marco, RNC

Good Wednesday morning. I'm in a hotel room in NYC -- doing "Morning Joe" on-set. Fall asleep to Donald Trump on CNN; wake up to Donald Trump on CNN.

QUINNIPIAC POLL, out at 6 a.m. - Release: "Clinton is behind or on the wrong side of a too-close-to-call result in matchups with [Marco, Jeb, Walker] in Colorado, Iowa and Virginia ... Perhaps the biggest loser ... is Donald Trump, who has negative favorability ratings of almost 2-1 in each state ... In several matchups in Iowa and Colorado, ... Sen. Bernie Sanders ... runs as well as, or better than Clinton against Rubio, Bush and Walker." https://bit.ly/1OlKbuS

By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; mallen@politico.com) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; dlippman@politico.com)

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OUR SECOND "The Agenda" package, on transportation, just went live -- MICHAEL GRUNWALD: "Today, we spend more than five times as many federal dollars on roads as we spend on public transit. We spend more building new road capacity than we spend fixing existing roads. Those priorities affect the competitiveness of our economy, the sustainability of our environment, the livability of our cities, and the mobility of the poor, not to mention the amount of time we spend banging our fists on our steering wheels in traffic and the likelihood that our bridges will collapse." https://politi.co/1fkUG5V

DEBATE DASHBOARD: 15 days - "Will GOP debate be the Trump show? Despite RNC's efforts, first showdown of 2016 could be focused on candidate from the angry fringe," by Dylan Byers, with Steve Shepard: "[O]n Aug. 6, in Cleveland, the GOP hopefuls will appear ... flanking a real estate mogul and reality television star who is all but certain to steal the spotlight, go on the offensive and thwart their hopes for a peaceful debate. Trump's presence ... is likely to transform the first ... debate into a major media event, bringing big ratings to Fox News, the debate sponsor.

"[I]t will likely turn the traditionally policy-focused event into a pageant of personality, which is a potential nightmare for other candidates. ... From [Madison] to Miami, campaign aides are ... wrestling with the Trump factor - strategizing on how to engage with him (if at all) and how to stave off his attacks. 'He might be the only person on that stage with nothing to lose,' said one senior Republican campaign adviser, 'and he isn't going down alone.' ... [C]andidates will be eager to ensure that they aren't just playing bit parts in a two-hour Donald Trump show. ...

"'Unless everything changes, ... I imagine Trump will be pretty much the top five stories of the debate just by showing up,' said Mark Leibovich, the chief national correspondent for The New York Times Magazine. 'There's the "Will the other candidates attack Trump?" story, the "Will Trump hold his own as a serious candidate?" story, the "Will Trump have a grasp of the issues?" story, the "What attention-getting thing did Trump say?" story and the "Did you hear what Trump said about Candidate X?" (or "What did Candidate X say to Trump?") story, etc. ... Maybe someone like Jeb can sneak into the top six.'" https://politi.co/1KjX1Md

LATE-NIGHT BEST - "'Advice for Future President Trump?' [Jon] Stewart Talks with Obama for One Last Time" Video https://bit.ly/1g3TYLj

2016 PLAYERS - "The man behind Trump's run: The highly-paid, PR-savvy 'bomb-thrower' managing Donald's campaign is a lot like his new boss," by Ben Schreckinger and Cate Martel: "The man behind Donald Trump's presidential campaign has a knack for spectacle, an eye toward making money and a proven willingness to defy the Republican Party. In other words, Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski [pronounced "LEW an Dow ski"] is a lot like his new boss. Lewandowski, who has been advising Trump since January and managing his improbable ... run to the top of ... has spent the past decade and a half drifting away from the party establishment.

"He left a short stint at the [RNC as legislative political director for the Northeast] in 2001 to manage the failed reelection campaign of a rogue senator [Bob Smith of N.H.] before landing ... at the Koch brothers-backed Americans for Prosperity, where he primaried New Hampshire Republicans ... until joining up with Trump. ... Lewandowski cemented a reputation in New Hampshire political circles for getting things done, even if it means ruffling feathers. ... Lewandowski, 40, supports a family of six and lives in [an $800,000] home in Windham, on the Massachusetts border ...

"His rift with 'the country club Republicans,' as he's known to call them, can be traced to another presidential campaign that ticked off the party. In February 1999, New Hampshire Sen. Bob Smith launched a long-shot bid for the Republican nomination, irking the local GOP ... In April 2014, AFP and Citizens United held a 'Freedom Summit' in New Hampshire, the first Republican cattle call of the 2016 presidential cycle, where Trump and Lewandowski met." https://politi.co/1HQQq65

--"Trump gives out Lindsey Graham's cellphone number," by Nick Gass and Adam B. Lerner: "'I wonder what caused that,' Graham told a POLITICO reporter who dialed the number, about the influx of calls." https://politi.co/1LCiKh9

--"Graham's phone is still ringing," by WashPost's Ed O'Keefe: "Graham ... was spotted [last] night at the movie theaters in Gallery Place ... on his way to a viewing of 'Minions' ... with Sen. Kelly Ayotte ... and her two young children. Riding up the escalators, ... Graham took out his cellphone and showed ... that indeed, the calls are still coming. 'Half of the calls are saying, 'Keep it up.'" https://wapo.st/1SB0KEm

JOE SCARBOROUGH on Facebook: "If [Trump] is as dangerous and undisciplined as party insiders fear, then they have nothing to worry about. The savagery of the American political process will grind Mr. Trump down like it does all those who dare to reach for the political holy grail. But if Trump pulls of a Berlusconi and wins the presidency in spite of his perceived shortcomings, then there was little that the out-of-touch Republican establishment could have done anyway. ...

"The burden of dethroning the Donald falls on GOP politicians like Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and others who have politely played by the old rules of an outdated political system that is no longer relevant to most Americans. The longer Trump's opponents play it safe, the longer Trump will continue his ... ascent. If anyone in the field plans on showing ... courage, ... the DC Establishment had better hope they find it soon. Because there is at least a small chance that Mr. Trump will stop making unforced errors." https://on.fb.me/1LssGLC

** A message from Chevron: STEM education is critical to building a more competitive America. At Chevron, we're working with Project Lead The Way to support innovative, hands-on learning programs. See how Chevron is helping over 80,000 students learn the skills to compete for the jobs of the future. https://tinyurl.com/q3sgsfd **

COMING THIS FRIDAY: We are excited to launch POLITICO New Jersey Playbook, where we harvest all the fresh politics and policy news the Garden State has to offer and deliver it to your inbox. Written by Matt Friedman in Trenton, Playbook is filled with news and analysis that reflects the state's colorful political culture. Sign up in advance by visiting https://www.politico.com/newjerseyplaybook/ and clicking the "Subscribe" button in the right hand corner.

YOU'RE INVITED! Join me and New Jersey Playbook author Matt Friedman as we mark the launch of New Jersey Playbook with a conversation about New Jersey policy, politics and the news of the day with Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.). this Monday at 10:30 a.m. at The Newark Club. RSVP: https://politi.co/1HIC9ud

CHRISTIE'S MONEY - "Meg Whitman Joins ... Christie ... as National Finance Co-Chair," by Bloomberg's Terrence Dopp: "Whitman, 58, joins Home Depot Inc. co-founder Ken Langone, hedge fund manager Steven Cohen and Pennsylvania Congressman Pat Meehan ... The group also includes banking scion Nicholas Loeb and ... Bobbie Kilberg, ... as well as Texas oilman Al Hill Jr., St. Louis financier Jeffrey Fox and ... management consultant Chris Vincze." https://bloom.bg/1fkI8vA

SWEET ON 16 - WSJ lead editorial (with unusually large A1 tease), "The Case of Kasich": His strength is his Ohio record, not his tendency to moralize": "His staff includes the strategists John Weaver and Fred Davis, alumni of the Jon Huntsman '12 and John McCain '00 campaigns, who specialize in getting Republican candidates to run as non-Republicans. If Mr. Kasich is ... running to lecture Republicans about everything they're wrong about, he'll lose." https://on.wsj.com/1LCEyJA

BROADCAST ROW -- WashPost Style cover, bottom of page, "An anchor quiets the howls: Gift flap hasn't kept GOP hopefuls off Stephanopoulos's Sunday show," by Paul Farhi (online: "Republicans take the heat off ... Stephanopoulos"): "'This Week' still finishes behind ratings leader 'Face the Nation' among all viewers, but it has been the most watched Sunday-morning public-affairs show for seven straight weeks among those ages 25-54." https://wapo.st/1Owvdmv

THE MONEY, HONEY - "Clinton raising money in finance sector as she raps industry," by AP's Ken Thomas and Lisa Lerer: "In her first campaign finance report, people ... in banking, finance, investment, money management, private equity or venture capital contributed more than $1.6 million ... The vast majority ... were for the maximum legal amount of $2,700." https://yhoo.it/1KjUlOA

N.H. MOOD MUSIC - Union Leader, bottom of A1, "Best year in a decade for NH jobs -- Mixed performance: More than 10,000 jobs added in the past 12 months, but the pace is expected to slow," by Dave Solomon in Concord https://bit.ly/1HIwkwW

K STREET SIREN -- WSJ 1-col. lead, "Talks Eye Overseas Taxation Overhaul," by John McKinnon: "Top lawmakers and the White House are in the early stages of discussing an ambitious overhaul of how the U.S. taxes its multinational firms [as] part of an effort to find funding for a long-term highway bill ... All sides acknowledge that an overhaul could raise revenues for highways by imposing a one-time tax on foreign corporate earnings sitting offshore." https://on.wsj.com/1Iebdjh

THE DEAL - USA Today banner, "Ad dollars stack up against Iran deal: As Congress starts review, ... lobbying lets loose," by Oren Dorell: "AIPAC, ... Citizens for a Nuclear Free Iran, United Against a Nuclear Iran and the Republican Jewish Coalition are among groups that will spend ... $20 million [to] $40 million to blast the deal ... The opponents' effort dwarfs that of supporters." https://usat.ly/1RPr2rd

--TOM FRIEDMAN column, "Backing Up Our Wager With Iran": "Supporting this deal doesn't make you Neville Chamberlin; opposing it doesn't make you Dr. Strangelove. Both sides have legitimate arguments. But having studied them, I believe America's interests are best served now by focusing on how to get the best out of this deal and cushion the worst, rather than scuttling it. That would be a mistake that would isolate us, not Iran, and limit our choices to going to war or tolerating an Iran much closer to nuclear breakout." https://nyti.ms/1CUC8UV

--NEW ON THE TWITTERS: The White House's @TheIranDeal: "Follow to get the facts": https://1.usa.gov/1MHTMM3

TODAY'S LEAST-SURPRISING STORY - N.Y. Times 1-col. lead, "PRESIDENT'S PLAN FOR GUANTáNAMO IS SEEN FALTERING ... Growing Concern Amid Delays on Detainee Transfers," by Charlie Savage: "The administration's fitful effort to shut down the prison is collapsing again." https://nyti.ms/1DtX6oE

THE BIG IDEA - NYT, top of col. 5, "Built on Terror, ISIS Is Planting Roots to Govern: Transition Forces West to Rethink Strategy," by Tim Arango in Istanbul: "[T]he group [holds territory and] is putting in place the kinds of measures associated with governing: issuing identification cards for residents, promulgating fishing guidelines ... [A] military strategy alone, without political reconciliation to offer alienated Sunnis an alternative authority, is not sufficient." https://nyti.ms/1LsI0I4

SUNDAY's NYT MAG cover story, "Christians in the Middle East are being forced out of their homes, enslaved and killed. Why is no coming to their aid?" by Eliza Griswold. https://nyti.ms/1Ieaz5c See the cover. https://bit.ly/1HQyyIu

VALLEY TALK -- "Twitter Is Deleting Backgrounds, So Take One Last Look At Yours (If It's Not Too Late)," by BuzzFeed's Alex Kantrowitz: "[T]he company is removing all custom backgrounds from [your home and notification tabs], leaving only a few pages on Twitter - such as single tweet, list, and collections pages - with backgrounds. ... The intention is to make pages with tweets on them less busy and more clear." https://bzfd.it/1MjDECd

MEDIAWATCH - "Fox News' Sean Hannity Gives an Exclusive Tour of His Midtown Manhattan Office," by AdWeek's Carrie Cummings: "Keepsakes: The glove is from Muhammad Ali, and the American flag flew over Iraq. ... Executive Photos : This collage captures a day Hannity spent on the campaign trail with President George W. Bush. ... Uniformity: Hannity wears only white shirts so he's never forced to choose a color. ... Trump Card: Don't read anything into his Trump tie collection." With lots of pics https://bit.ly/1TPm8If

ENGAGED: Politico breaking news reporter Nick Gass to Jeanette Gaida, a senior program assistant at the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine. They met online, through mutual interests in January 2014. He proposed to her at their apartment overlooking the Washington Monument with a ring I got from her favorite jeweler in the Chicago area, near her hometown." Pic https://bit.ly/1Kk7xAj

WELCOME TO THE WORLD - CNN's Jim Sciutto emails: "Gloria [Riviera of ABC News] and I welcomed a little girl into the world Monday afternoon. She's gorgeous like her mom and, like her dad, happily satisfied with eating and sleeping! We are over the moon!" Pic https://bit.ly/1LCnovJ

--Politico energy reporter Eric Wolff: "[Miriam and I] welcomed Solomon Kenneth Walter Wolff and Diana Judith Wolff into our lives on July 11. Diana spent 6 days in the NICU and Solly (as we're calling him) is still there, which is why it took me so long to get this email out. On the plus side, both babies are coming along well, and with two, we can each claim that one of them looks like us (and definitely not like Winston Churchill)." Pics https://bit.ly/1HQmGWZ... https://bit.ly/1LCks29

--David P. Gelles, senior broadcast producer at 'The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer," and Danna Gelles, a third-grade teacher at the Charles E Smith School in Rockville MD: "After the show Friday night I had a second live show to produce. Part of the theme of crazy shit happens on Fridays...It was the best possible Breaking News event. Introducing our tiny little girl Lia Gelles 5lbs 11oz Born Saturday July 18, 2015 at 12:10am at Sibley Memorial Hospital. Pic https://bit.ly/1LsrmIw Video of Wolf announcing the birth https://bit.ly/1MnPHPZ

BIRTHDAYS : Reid Cherlin ... former Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole (R-Kan.) is 92 ... former Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas), is 72 ... David Shuster of Al Jazeera America and the pride of Bloomington, Ind. ... AFL-CIO's Will Fischer ... Politico's Craig Howie and Vicki Nguyen ... Eagles great Don Henley (h/t Kurt Bardella) ... Tarun Chhabra, the NSC's director for human Rights and national security issues... Alex Pappas of the Daily Caller, spending at least a portion of the day at the Brooks Brothers outlet in Leesburg (h/t a co-worker) ... Buzz Brockway ... Michael DiRienzo, executive director of the Silver Institute, a.k.a Mayor of P.J. Clarke's (h/t Tim and Kiki Burger) ... Caleb Smith, the Speaker's Digital Communications Director (h/t Seamus Kraft) ... Meghan Sullivan of the Mortgage Bankers Association (h/t Jeff Grappone) ... AJ Jorgenson, comms director at the Manufacturing Institute ... New York Magazine's Annie Lowrey, an NYT alum ... Dewey Square Group's Elise Shutzer, celebrating in Iceland ...

... ESPN senior writer Don Van Natta Jr., an NYT alum and the pride of Pinecrest, Fla. ... Ceci Alvarez ... Eleni Tavlarides, daughter of Mark Tavlarides and Jennifer Swanson ... Kevin Eastman ... CNN's Terence Burlij, a NewsHour alum ... Warren Bass, senior editor of WSJ's Review section ... Shelly Porges, a State alum now managing director at Reservoir Q Global and a "Global Entrepreneurship Advocate," per her Twitter ... Nathan Naylor, SVP at FleishmanHillard ... Sarah Obenour ... Soren Dayton, advisor at International Justice Mission ... Will Fischer, executive director of the Union Veterans Council and an AFL-CIO alum ... Mike Gibson, president of Advocacy Group ... Mike Moffo ... Kerry Allen, legislative assistant for Sen. Amy Klobuchar and a Bill Nelson alum ... Maor Cohen ... Travis Korson, principal at Millennial Strategy Group ... Rep. John Larson ...

... Maury Forman ... Marie Westfried ... Christine Patronik-Holder ... Les MacDonald ... Sam Chiron of the National Parks Conservation Association ... Steven Bennett, VP and COO of Brookings and brother of Matt ... Enrique Goni ... Arshi Siddiqui, partner at Akin Gump and Pelosi alum ... KBH ... Mary Masserini ... Jeffery Winmill, associate attorney at Van Ness Feldman ... Andrew Feinberg ... Gary A. Waters ... John Kim Cook ... Orson Bean is 87 ... 75! How old is Alex Trebek? ... Danny Glover is 69 ... actor-comedian-director Albert Brooks is 68 ... Don Henley is 68 ... Willem Dafoe is 60 ... David Spade is 51 ... Patrick Labyorteaux is 50 ... Keyshawn Johnson is 43 ... Britain's Prince George of Cambridge is 2 (h/ts AP)

BIRTHDAY TOMORROW: David Brock

** A message from Chevron: Project Lead The Way is providing students with the problem-solving skills they need to compete for STEM jobs of the future. At Chevron, we're proud to partner with PLTW to support STEM education for over 80,000 students. See how we're supporting America's future innovators. https://tinyurl.com/nmljbna **

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