POLITICO Playbook: CRUZ, TRUMP SQUEEZE MARCO AFTER ANOTHER DISAPPOINTMENT

Good Sunday morning. PLAYBOOK FACTS OF LIFE: Turn out the lights, Establishment. The GOP nominee is either a man hated by the establishment writ large (Trump) or the man most hated by his fellow Republican senators (Cruz). They have won 18 of 19 states. They have 81% of delegates. They whooped Bush -- and now Rubio, absent a miracle. No money, convention tricks or momentum swings can change this course. (Hey, remember all those stories from one month ago, saying the establishment was warming to Trump because they disdain Cruz?)

So Republicans awake to this reality: Their nominee will be one of the two most divisive and anti-establishment Republicans in the country. Both are anti-immigration hardliners with no track record of winning over women, or Hispanics, or Asians or young people. Burn that RNC autopsy report, quick! All the chips are on white conservatives.

By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; [email protected]) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; [email protected])

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SUPER SATURDAY: Sanders wins Kansas, Nebraska ... Clinton dominates Louisiana (71-23) ... Cruz takes Kansas, Maine ... Trump edges Cruz in Kentucky, Louisiana.

--CNN.com banner, "Trump campaign shows cracks" - Chris Moody: "Trump remains the ... front-runner, but he didn't clean up on Saturday. His losses to Cruz in Maine -- where Gov. Paul LePage had endorsed him -- and Kansas give hope to other campaigns that a strong ground game can at least chip away at his delegate count." https://cnn.it/1RNY5c1

--"Cruz wins CPAC straw poll," by Eliza Collins: Cruz 40% ... Marco 30% ... Trump 15% ... Kasich 8% https://politi.co/21O79Wp

--"Cruz and Trump seek a two-man fight to the finish," by Kyle Cheney and Alex Isenstadt: "Cruz is pouring resources into Rubio's home state of Florida, where polls show Trump leading - and where a Rubio loss would effectively end his campaign. ... Cruz ... is unlikely to compete for a win in Florida, which awards all of its delegates to the top finisher. Instead, his decision to open 10 offices there on Friday seems aimed at suffocating Rubio's support and knocking him out of the race." https://politi.co/1QCIdXo

BULLETIN - AP/Englewood, Colo.: "Peyton Manning has told the Denver Broncos he will retire after 18 NFL seasons. ... Chris Mortensen of ESPN first reported the decision."

SUNDAY BEST - Trump on "Face the Nation," taped last night in the ballroom at Mar-a-Lago (John Dickerson flew down and did it in person): "[W]e've become very weak and ineffective. I think that's why we're not beating ISIS. It's that mentality. ... We cannot beat ISIS. We should beat ISIS very quickly. General Patton would have had ISIS down in about three days. General Douglas McArthur. We are playing by a different set of rules. ... 

"[T]he ISIS people chop off the heads, and they then go back to their homes and they talk. And they hear we're talking about waterboarding like it's the worst thing in the world, and they've just drowned 100 people and chopped off 50 heads. They must think we are a little bit on the weak side. ... [W]e are playing by rules, but they have no rules. It's very hard to win when that's the case."

DICKERSON: "Isn't that what separates us from the savages?"

TRUMP: "No, I don't think so. ... We have to beat the savages."

DICKERSON: "By being savages?"

TRUMP: "No, well. We have to play the game the way they're playing the game. You're not going to win if we're soft and they have no rules. Now, I want to stay within the laws. I want to do all of that, but I think we have to increase the laws because the laws are not working. Obviously, all you have to do is take a look at what's going on. And they're getting worse. They're chopping, chopping, chopping, and we're worried about waterboarding. I just think -- I think our priorities are mixed up."

SNEAK PEEK -- DAVID REMNICK with the lead "Talk of the Town" item in the forthcoming New Yorker, "American Demagogue ... How has this coddled scion of a New York real-estate baron emerged as a populist hero?": "It was all so funny once. For a long time, Trump, with his twenty-four-karat skyscrapers, his interesting hair, and his extra-classy airline, was a leading feature of the New York egoscape. The editors of the satirical monthly Spy covered him with the same obsessive attention that Field & Stream pays to the rainbow trout. ... 

"No American demagogue--not Huey Long, not Joseph McCarthy, not George Wallace--has ever achieved such proximity to national power." https://bit.ly/1Rv767f

DRIVING THE DAY: Clinton-Sanders debate in Flint, Mich., at 8 p.m. on CNN, and livestreamed on CNN.com.

--"Political heat offers few fixes for Flint: The city whose water crisis is playing a key role in the Democrats' 2016 messaging has problems that elude easy political remedies," by Politico's Annie Snider in Flint: "Eighteen months after the contamination began, and five months after state officials finally acknowledged the problem, people here say they are still largely on their own." https://politi.co/1SrNeqA

FIRST LOOK -- "GoFundMe, which has become a hub for people trying to help Flint deal with its water crisis, is planning to use the attention surrounding [tonight's] Democratic debate to help raise more money for the Flint Crisis. They [just released] a video featuring Marseille Allen, a Flint resident, who raised over $54,000 for Flint on the platform, and will encourage debate viewers to donate to a Flint campaign or start their own." 3-min. video https://bit.ly/1psJZUq

** A Message from Nuclear Matters: Providing more than 62% of America's carbon-free electricity, existing, state-of-the-art nuclear energy plants play a vital role in achieving our clean-energy and carbon-reduction goals. The industry also supports more than 475,000 jobs nationally and provides critical tax revenue locally for roads, schools and other public priorities. Learn more at NuclearMatters.com. **

"JAKE TAPPER" (who was actually in D.C., being inducted into the Gridiron Club) stars in "Saturday Night Live" cold open, with a haughty "Trump" calling Christie "a sad, desperate little potato back there" - plus a scarily peppy "Hillary." YouTube https://bit.ly/1p8vl4V

OUCH! Tampa Bay Times lead story, "Trump taunts Rubio on his turf: Florida's delegate-rich prize is on the line as Trump draws 10,000 to a rally in Orlando," by Adam Smith and Michael Auslen in Orlando: "Rubio's invisible Florida campaign for most of the past year. Only a few days ago - months after Trump opened his first campaign offices in Florida - the Rubio campaign started opening offices outside his Miami-Dade County home turf. Veteran Republican organizers, likewise, have only in recent days started seeing much sign of Rubio reaching out to people who have not yet returned their mail ballots. ... 

"The Florida senator has repeatedly predicted he will win his home state, even though he has not led a single poll of Florida Republicans in six months. Two recent polls have shown him trailing by as much as 20 percentage points. Now, finally, Rubio is focused on Florida, scheduling campaign stops throughout the state, including Tampa on Monday and Sarasota on Tuesday." https://bit.ly/1U3V6OI

TRUMP POUNDS RUBIO - AP's Jill Colvin in West Palm Beach, Fla.: "Trump said at a news conference at his golf club, ... where dozens of friends and club members mixed in with reporters covering his campaign[:] 'Marco has to get out of the race. Has to ... a very, very bad night ... You've got to be able to win. And he has not been able to win. And I think it's time that he drops out ... I would love to take on Ted one-on-one. That would be so much fun.'" https://apne.ws/1np4csC

--BEN SCHRECKINGER in Orlando, "Trump savages Rubio at Florida rally": "Calling the Florida senator an 'idiot,' Trump portrayed Rubio as beholden to his donors ... 'What does he do with all his free time? He's got the highest delinquency record in the United States Senate in many, many years.'" https://politi.co/1UJRKRy

TRUMP on N.Y. POST cover, "HEY MITT! KISS MY BLUEGRASS: Trump grabs Kentucky, Louisiana, Romney's thunder" https://nyp.st/1Yi2Ih8

CONNECTING THE DOTS: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel p. 1A, top of col. 1, "Trump spoils rise of GOP trio: Front-runner wreaks havoc on state's stars," by Craig Gilbert: "[C]onsider the pain he has inflicted on three Republican stalwarts from Wisconsin: Scott Walker, Paul Ryan and Reince Priebus. Not long ago, this trio was hailed as the vanguard of an emboldened national party that clobbered Democrats in midterm elections and redefined how far conservatives could go in blue and purple states. But today that party is having a manic, Trump-fueled identity crisis, and all three have been ensnared in the struggle." https://bit.ly/1L90cb5

AP DELEGATE COUNT: "Clinton picked up at least 55 delegates to Sanders' 47 in Saturday's contests, with seven delegates yet to be allocated. Overall, Clinton had at least 1,121 delegates to Sanders' 479, including superdelegates ... It takes 2,383 delegates to win the Democratic nomination.

"Cruz won at least 64 delegates Saturday, making a small dent in Trump's lead for Republican convention delegates. Trump picked up at least 49, Rubio at least 13 and Kasich nine. Overall, Trump led with at least 378, Cruz had at least 295, Rubio 123 and Kasich 34. It takes 1,237 delegates to win the Republican nomination for president." https://apne.ws/1Rv0FB6

RUBIO INTERVIEW -- N.Y. Times p. 21, "Rubio's Policies Might Shut the Door to People Like His Grandfather," by Jeremy Peters in Miami: "Rubio acknowledged that some would see a conflict between the stricter immigration and refugee policies he supports and his grandfather's experience [coming from Havana to Miami in 1962]. ... Rubio said the difference between then and now is how much more sophisticated foreign infiltrators like the Islamic State have become, and how dangerous they are. ... 'Times have changed ... Policies have to change. If there's a conflict there, I think that's just a reality.'" https://nyti.ms/1TXzSTS

MAUREEN DOWD on cover of NYT Sunday Review, "Chickens, Home to Roost: Trump, wicked fun and just plain wicked": Bill "Kristol, the midwife to three debacles - Dan Quayle, Iraq and Sarah Palin - solicited suggestions for the name of the new party that Republicans will have to start if Trump secures the nomination. How about 'Losers'? ... How lame was it that after saying he was a crazy choice, Rubio, Ted Cruz, Paul Ryan and John McCain turned around and said they will support Trump if he's the nominee?" https://nyti.ms/1QuEfCq

LOOKING AHEAD ... L.A. Times 2-col. lead, "Black votes matter up North too: African American voters appear poised to reward Clinton's loyalty with victory in Michigan and beyond," by Cathleen Decker in Detroit: "African American voters steadied Hillary Clinton's campaign in the South and now are poised to propel her forward in a corridor of Northern industrial states where voting kicks off with Tuesday's Michigan primary. Much has been made nationally of the power of Latino voters, but black voters actually had more pull in the 2012 presidential election, according to a study by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. 

"It found that African Americans accounted for President Obama's victories in seven states with 112 electoral votes - without which the nation's first black president would have lost the White House. ... Latinos, by contrast, determined the outcome in four states with 49 electoral votes; without them, Obama still would have been reelected."  https://lat.ms/1R18ynD

PRINT HEADLINES: N.Y. Times 1-col. lead, "2 CRUZ VICTORIES BUOY CHALLENGE TO TRUMP DRIVE: ANOTHER RUBIO SETBACK -- 2 Triumphs for Sanders - Clinton Handily Wins Louisiana," by Jonathan Martin, sans dateline (online: "Cruz Keeps Up Pressure on Donald Trump; Bernie Sanders Takes 2 on 'Super Saturday'") https://nyti.ms/1QWIF1U ... WashPost 1-col. lead, "Double victories boost Cruz: TEX. SENATOR USED POPULIST PITCH -- Sanders makes little headway against Clinton," by Jose DelReal in New Orleans https://wapo.st/1TiWmPm

DRIP, DRIP ... WashPost, top of col. 1, "Clinton authored sensitive emails: Written by her, 104 from her server were later deemed classified," by Roz Helderman and Tom Hamburger: "Clinton wrote 104 emails that she sent using her private server while secretary of state that the government has since said contain classified information, according to a new Washington Post analysis of Clinton's publicly released correspondence. ... In roughly three-quarters of those cases, officials have determined that material Clinton herself wrote in the body of email messages is classified. Clinton sometimes initiated the conversations but more often replied to aides or other officials with brief reactions to ongoing discussions.

"The analysis also showed that the practice of using non-secure email systems to send sensitive information was widespread at the department and elsewhere in government. ... Clinton spokesman Brian Fallon ... said the classification determinations 'were after-the-fact . . . for the purposes of preparing these emails for release publicly.'" https://wapo.st/1RuZn9n

THE BEST LINES from last night's 131st anniversary dinner of the Gridiron Club and Foundation: 

--S.C. GOV. NIKKI HALEY: "The Gridiron is an amazing event. As I look out I see some of the most gifted journalists in the world here. Plus the ones who go on tee-vee. I've enjoyed the sketches tonight. ... See, when the press makes fun of themselves they call it parody. When the press makes fun of Republicans they call it journalism. ... 

"Since I'm not really well known in Washington, let me tell you a little about myself. My parents are from India. I have 2 brothers and a sister. Out of the four of us, only 1 works with computers. You tell me we haven't assimilated. [Laughter] My first job was keeping the books in my mother's store. She built it into a multi-million-dollar company providing good American jobs. Or as her relatives back in India called it -- outsourcing. ...

"Secretary of State Madeline Albright is here. [Peering into audience:] Just a reminder: There's a special place in hell for women who don't laugh at other women's jokes. ... And of course the Castro twins are here. ... Didn't Ben Carson do a great job separating them? ... President Obama's not here tonight -- there was apparently some confusion at the White House. The president pulled out when he realized it was Julian and Joaquin speaking, not Fidel and Raul. ... 

"I visited Donald's office a few years back. It's exactly what you'd expect - understated, refined, tasteful. I'm glad I got to see it when I did. I couldn't get in there now, what with the new ban on brown people entering Trump Tower. By the way, when I endorsed Marco everyone assumed we cut a deal. We did. He promised I could borrow his boots. 

"But back to Donald - he also got into a fight with Pope Francis. He was very upset that the Pope questioned his faith. To prove the Pope wrong, Donald said he'd build a stairway to heaven and make Muslims pay for it. Sorry, just got a new text. Donald is suing me for that joke. Bless your heart. ... Reince Priebus, who I saw earlier, used the RNC to control the debates so they didn't damage the Republican brand. Heckuva job, Priebus!"

VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN (excerpts released by White House): Walks to podium with "Hail to the Chief" playing. "God, I love that song. ... I've always ranked among the poorest members of Congress-and all of these years, it didn't bother me much before. Until I learned my net worth was even less than Bernie Sanders. Look, when a socialist has more money than you- you know you've been doing something really wrong for a long, long time. ... 

"A lot of you have brought up a clip from a speech I made in 1992. On the Senate floor. Talking about a potential nomination to the Supreme Court. Look, what can I tell you? That was a different time. A Clinton was at the top of the polls. The Bush dynasty was in trouble. Donald Trump was saying outlandish things. As I said, a totally different time. ... 

"That debate where Robo Rubio appeared. Look, it shows exactly why I've never bothered with any talking points. They just get you in trouble. And when Marco brought my name up in a debate, he said Biden's got 1,000 years of experience in Washington. Well, you know what that makes me? A millennial!

"That's why I'm on Snapchat, which is perfect for me. It cuts off me after 10 seconds. And everything disappears the next day. But Twitter, now that's another thing. I can't even say 'hello' in less than 140 characters."

JOKE THAT GOT BIGGEST APPLAUSE OF NIGHT: "I told Barack: If you really, really want to remake the Supreme Court, nominate Cruz. Before you know it, you'll have eight vacancies. ... And Donald Trump. Donald has attacked every person of color - except John Boehner. ...

"But, folks, on a serious point, Trump said he likes "people who don't get captured." What a terrible thing to say about my friend and a genuine war hero, John McCain. So tonight I call on Donald Trump to be a man of his word - and release Chris Christie right now."

THE CASTRO BROTHERS - HUD Secretary Julián Castro and Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas): 

Julián: "Now, usually, when you want to hear two of the exact same thing, you just go to a Marco Rubio speech. Today, we both live in Washington. But Joaquin is in Congress, which means I'm the only one who works in Washington."

Joaquin: "I've always wondered: Why do people take such an immediate dislike to Ted Cruz?" Julián: "Probably because it saves time."

Joaquin: "We have to talk about Marco." Julián: "Yes, Marco Rubio and his very fancy boots." Joaquin: "The last time Washington was this riled up about a man in high heels, it was J. Edgar Hoover."

Julián: "All of the VIPs are here tonight. But there's one notable absence-President Obama." Joaquin: "Just like the State of the Union, the custom is for one person to stay home for security reasons. So he stayed behind, in case, God forbid, something happened to Valerie Jarrett." Julián, turning to Jarrett at the head table: "Boss, that was Joaquin who said that."

Joaquin: "Jake Siewert of Goldman Sachs is here, and we know why. This is the only place he can watch such high-profile speakers for less than 200-grand."

Joaquin: "There's been a lot of talk in Washington about the Biden Rule on Supreme Court nominations." Julián:"Which is weird, because I always thought the Biden rule was: "Never cash in Amtrak rewards on a regional ticket."

FIRST LOOK - RNC, "Clinton's Reckless Reset: 7 Years Later": "It was seven years ago today, when Hillary Clinton led a failed 'reset' in U.S.-Russia Relations." https://bit.ly/1oYHkBl

LATE-NIGHT BEST - "Bill Maher Calls Out Republican Hypocrisy On 'Real Time'": "New rule ... You can't spend the first half of a debate bitching about how immigrants are ruining the country and the second half on the uplifting stories of your immigrant parents." 6-min. video https://huff.to/1OWj87S

USED NEWS - Today's NYT p. 1, top of col. 5, "Trump Flirted With State Bid Before '16 Race: Governorship Viewed as a Steppingstone" https://nyti.ms/1Ygk0eK ... Politico's Eli Stokols and Ben Schreckinger, Feb. 1,"How Trump Did It": A few weeks before Christmas 2013, "25 New York political operatives had come to ask him to run for governor." https://politi.co/1QBwM2d

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Corinne Hoare, professor at AU's school of communication and former director of comms. for OMB, and Tom Hoare , a DHS and White House alum, currently senior director at SAP, welcomed Thomas Holton Hoare, IV to the world on Dec. 23. Holton goes by his middle name and arrived a bit over 3 weeks early. Holton weighed in at 6 lbs, 9 oz and measured 21 inches long. Pic https://bit.ly/1oZTtWG

LEAP WEDDING ... Emmarie Huetteman, Christopher Trepky - N.Y. Times: "Emmarie Huetteman and Christopher Thomas Trepky were married Feb. 29 under the District of Columbia's self-uniting marriage statute. The ceremony was at the Tidal Basin next to the National Mall ... The couple met at the University of Michigan ... Huetteman, 29, ... is a reporter for The New York Times in Washington. She received a master's degree in journalism from Northwestern. ... Trepky, 30, is a sales associate at Read Wall, a custom men's wear store, in Washington." With pic, and how they took the leap https://nyti.ms/1QuCXHC

OUT AND ABOUT -- Kevin and Jaclyn Madden and Edith Gregson and Erik Smith held a going-away party last night at the Gregson/Smith home for Joe and Giovanna Lockhart as they prepare to move to NYC.

SPOTTED: Joel Johnson, Eun Yang and Robert Kang, Elizabeth Thorp, Jack and Susanna Quinn, Steve Elmendorf, Rebecca and Jeff Rosen, Juleanna Glover and Christopher Reiter, Peter and Meredith Hutchins, Jenny Murphy, Ankit Desai, Nora Connors and Hudson Desai, Doug Maguire and Kate Beale, Shari Yost and Jason Gold, Jeremy and Robyn Bash, Brett O'Brien, Carly Coakley, Isaac Baker, Christine Turner. 

BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Diana Fakhouri, senior social media strategist at Hillary for America (and HFA's resident aeropress connoisseur) turned 29 (h/t Margarita Diaz)

BIRTHDAYS : Abby VandeHei (Pack tip: Johnny) ... Chairman Alan Greenspan is 90 (hat tips: Andrea, Margaret Carlson) ... Facebook's Jennifer Yuille Skyler, the pride of Flint and a CBS, NBC and CNN alum (h/t Ed) ... Saul Anuzis, former chairman of the Michigan Republican Party ... David Bradley ... John Stossel of Fox Business is 69 ... sports correspondent Armen Keteyian is 63 ... former FBI and CIA director William Webster is 92 ... former Sen. Kit Bond (R-Mo.) is 77 ... Pablo Chavez, LinkedIn's head of global public policy (h/ts Stewart Verdery and Jessica Herrera-Flanigan) ... Alex Stroman on the RNC's press team (h/t best work friend Ali Pardo) ... 

... Blake Gottesman (h/ts Jared, JSD) ... Brooke Gladstone, co-host of WNYC's On the Media ... Theodore Furchtgott ... Sandra Salstrom, press secretary for Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-ND) ... Chris Leavitt, former campaign manager for Ed Gillespie and a GOP Virginia strategist ... Alyssa Backlund ... Lisa Todorovich Porter ... Brendon Plack, staff director of the Senate Republican Conference ... Ellen Canale ... Emily Leviner, legislative director and counsel for Rep. John Ratcliffe (R-Tex.) ... 

... WashPost food critic Tom Sietsema ... Karen Lightfoot, comms. director and senior policy advisor for the Select Investigative Panel of House Energy and Commerce ... Mike Thigpen of RBC Wealth Management ... Courtney Beese ... Sam Spence, web editor at Charleston City Paper and a Joe Trippi alum ... Katy Bayless, director of federal relations for her alma mater, Clemson University ... Ghana celebrates its national holiday (h/t @BCIU) ... Anna Kopperud ... Stephanie Linder, a director of development at Rice University ... 

... Andie Coller ... Kathleen J. Becker ... Steve Fox ... Adrian Perez ... Jenny Vidas ... Lanon Baccam ... Jeff Hunter ... Samantha Waterman ... Joseph Porcelli (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) ... David Gilmour (Pink Floyd) is 70 ... Rob Reiner is 69 ... Shaq is 44 (h/t Lehane) ... Tyler, the Creator is 25 ... actor Dillon Freasier is 20 ... actress Savannah Stehlin is 20 (h/ts AP)

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