POLITICO Playbook: BUSHIES FRET at dynasty-fest -- JEB’s SILENT HUG with Mike Murphy

BREAKING - Out this a.m. from Gallup: "In U.S., Support for Tea Party Drops to New Low," by Jim Norman: "17% say they consider themselves Tea Party supporters ... 54%, highest ever, neither support nor oppose the movement ... Major drop in support from independents who lean toward GOP." https://bit.ly/1jKwPiR

Good Monday morning. Secretary Clinton is 68 today, in case you missed the spam onslaught from her campaign. Chelsea: "Will you sign my mom's birthday card?" [And let us harvest your data!] ... Bill: "I already signed it; you should too!" ... Sen. Barbara Mikulski: "Wish Hillary a happy birthday!" ... Sen. Barbara Boxer: "I have a feeling this is going to be an important year for her (and for all of us)!"

 --HER BIRTHDAY PRESIDENT: David Plouffe endorses in a blast email with subject line, "Go win this thing, Madam Secretary": "During the most intense days of the 2008 primary, ... I would never have imagined writing this email. ... Be a part of this by chipping in $1 right now."

By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; [email protected]) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; [email protected])

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--INSTAGRAM DU JOUR: @hillaryclinton, whose account was taken over for J.J. by Katy Perry: "My birthday gift [a necklace that says 'POTUS'] to fellow Scorpio, Hillary, says it all. -Katy" https://bit.ly/1Wd3KbP

 THE CONVERSATION - "Bush family gathers to rescue Jeb," by Eli Stokols in Houston: "'The patient is either in intensive care and in need of some good doctors ... or being put into hospice and we're going to see a slow death,' said one K street lobbyist [at a concurrent summit for top donors to Jeb campaign and super PAC]. ... At the gathering on the fourth floor of the cavernous Hilton Americas Houston hotel, donors moved casually through the hallways, smiling while brushing past reporters ...

"Upstairs in the presidential suite, Barbara Bush handed out the Jeb! bumper stickers she keeps in her walker to adoring donors. When Jeb Bush thanked the 150 donors for making the trip to Houston at Sunday evening's barbecue dinner, ... it served as motivational fuel for many bundlers. 'He seemed like he's in a really good place, like a burden had been lifted,' said a bundler from Miami.

"But ... many donors also voiced concerns about the direction of the campaign. 'Having 41 around helps take the edge off, but we all read the same newspapers and look at the same polls and it's tough right now. There are a lot of people we thought would have written checks who aren't on board yet,' one donor said. ...

 "Sunday afternoon in a hotel ballroom adjacent to one rented by the campaign, Mike Murphy, the strategist guiding Bush's Right to Rise super PAC, ... gave attendees a sneak peak of his next round of feel-good television spots ... This exercise in nostalgia ... is ... laying bare how a family held in such high esteem by generations of Republicans no longer represents the party it once led. ...

"Bush, betraying his frustration , ... raised eyebrows Saturday by offering what sounded like an exit narrative. 'I've got a lot of really cool things I could do other than sit around, being miserable, listening to people demonize me and me feeling compelled to demonize them. That is a joke,' he said in South Carolina. 'Elect Trump if you want that.' ... 

"George W. Bush will take questions from attendees Monday morning; and donors will get to pose for pictures with 41, 43, Jeb and their wives before they leave that afternoon, a historic opportunity used to incentivize bundlers who rounded up $100,000 in contributions. ... Jeb ... bumped into Murphy ... The two old friends, barred by federal law from coordinating, embraced in a quick hug."  https://bit.ly/1i8CxJU

--"Bush super PAC considering staff for early voting states," by AP's Tom Beaumont and Julie Bykowicz in Houston: The Right to Rise super PAC "is considering placing organizing staff in Iowa and New Hampshire, [following] the decision of his formal campaign to refocus its efforts on the two early-voting states. ... A faithful core of roughly 100 Bush supporters made the trip to Houston, ... fewer than expected due in part to the rains that pounded south Texas ... Among the invited were people who had raised at least $50,000 for the campaign ...

 "Right to Rise has spent $14.7 million on ads through the end of this week, mainly in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina ... 'Our primary mission is to tell Jeb's story through paid advertising, but we're always exploring other ways we can help amplify his positive message,' said Right to Rise spokesman Paul Lindsey. ...

 "Jay Zeidman, a Houston fundraiser for Bush who attended the Right to Rise briefing on Sunday, said he felt 'reassured' after listening to the super PAC leadership."  https://bit.ly/1MevMxQ

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 BIDEN tells Norah O'Donnell on "60" Minutes" that there was no "Hollywood moment" with Beau: "Some people have written [!] that ... Beau on his death bed said, 'Dad, you've got to run.' Or there was this sort of Hollywood moment ... Nothing like that ever, ever happened. ... Beau all along thought that I should run and I could win. But there was not what was sort of ... made out as kind of this Hollywood-esque thing -- that at the last minute Beau grabbed my hand and said, 'Dad, you've got to run.' Like, 'Win one for the Gipper.' It wasn't anything like that." Video and transcript  https://cbsn.ws/1Wd7utE

 SPEAKER RYAN - "GOP moneymen: Ryan a fundraising juggernaut: His cash network will more than compensate for weekends at home, allies say," by Jake Sherman and Anna Palmer: "Boehner held a lot of fundraisers on the golf course. Ryan isn't a golfer. So instead of a five-hour event playing golf, allies say, Ryan can hold two events in the same time and can bring in five times as much money by attracting many more donors. Associates also say he is unusually efficient with his time, even tending to donors on drives between events." https://politi.co/206UdaM

 ACELA DRAMA: Christie campaign says the governor "didn't get kicked off" Acela's quiet car as he returned from his "Face the Nation" hit yesterday - he "voluntarily left." Statement from Sam Smith: "On a very full train, the Governor accidentally took a seat in Amtrak's notorious quiet car. After breaking the cardinal rule of the quiet car, the Governor promptly left once he realized the serious nature of his mistake and enjoyed the rest of his time on the train from the cafe car. Sincere apologies to all the patrons of the quiet car that were offended."

 SPOTTED: Mike Bloomberg and Lincoln Chafee at the Washington International Horse Show at the Verizon Center Saturday night. Bloomberg (according to the announcer) was there to see his daughter, Georgina, compete in the $125,000 Longines President's Cup Grand Prix. Chafee watched his daughter Thea finish 9th in the Washington Junior Equitation finals.

 TOP TALKER -- "Study: Kids take 100-plus required tests through 12th grade," by AP's Jennifer Kerr: "[K]ids spend [20-25 hours a year] taking standardized tests, ... according to a ... study of 66 of the nation's big-city school districts by the Council of the Great City Schools. It said testing amounts to about 2.3 percent of classroom time for the average 8th-grader in public school." With graphic https://bit.ly/1OQAloP

CAPTION CONTEST for pic of Jon Karl trailing Hillary through the Capitol, as she throws up her hands and smiles during a break in the Benghazi hearing. See the contest pic by Reuters' Gary Cameron. https://bit.ly/1S0nONT

--6 OF YOUR BEST: "Love these guys! They just won me the election." -- Lucia Brawley, VP of comms. for media tech startup amp.it in Miami. ... "Watch me Nae Nae!" -- Darryl Price, software engineer in Denville, N.J. ... "Haters gonna hate." - Andrew Hedlund, bankruptcy reporter for The Deal ... "Considering 'jazz hands.'" - Stacey Stowe, NYT contributor ... "Would you consider managing the Washington Nationals?" - Nathaniel Haas, USC law student and former Politico intern ... "So what do you think happened to Luke Skywalker?" -- Matt Fitting, grassroots advocacy manager for the American Heart Association.

--VOTE BY TONIGHT for your favorite of the top 10 - with the top caption writer winning a framed copy of the photo, signed by both Jon Karl and photog Gary Cameron. https://bit.ly/1R796nu

TOP-ED - MIKE BARNICLE on The Daily Beast, "Hillary Clinton, Trey Gowdy, and the True Victims of Playing Politics with War": "By the time Trey Gowdy and Hillary Clinton finished their opening remarks at Thursday'scongressional inquiry on Benghazi, Joshua Wheeler was dead in Iraq half a world away from Washington where policy is set that sends men just like him to the fight." https://thebea.st/1P04znS

JAKE TAPPER "State of the Union" highlights - "Sanders: I am not 'shouting' at Hillary Clinton" https://cnn.it/1LVzUar ... "Trump: World would be '100%' better with Hussein, Gadhafi in power" https://cnn.it/1Xs5FeS

NEW JON KARL project gives him an excuse to dive into the video archives, "This Week in History with Jonathan Karl": The first episode covers Henry Kissinger's prediction in 1972 that the Vietnam War was winding down, and Ronald Reagan's "A Time for Choosing" speech in 1964. 90-sec. video https://abcn.ws/1kF0IBn

FIRST LOOK -- JOHN WEAVER of Kasich for America to send a memo "Three Months" to "Team KFA":"[N.H. v]oters want a candidate who has balanced budgets and created surpluses, who they also believe cares about them and will work across party lines to get things done. This is John Kasich in a nutshell." https://politi.co/1Rw72Wc

 WHAT IOWA IS READING - Des Moines Register p. 1A, above fold, "Democrats' big show reflects a clarified contest: It didn't sway many undecideds; O'Malley still factor in 3-way race," by Jennifer Jacobs: "'The event felt like Democrats have concluded the race is over,' said David Yepsen, who wrote about Iowa politics for The Des Moines Register for 34 years. ... [T]he JJ dinner's presence on the calendar may have helped prompt decisions that have narrowed the race from a six-way to a three-way." https://dmreg.co/1PNFtu6

WHAT NEVADA IS READING: This runs at bottom of Las Vegas Review-Journal front page ("For Rubio, it's now presidency or nothing") ... WashPost, top of col. 1, "For Rubio, it's the West Wing or bust:Frustrated with Senate, Republican defends his absences from votes," by David Fahrenthold: "Five years ago, Rubio arrived with a potential that thrilled Republicans. ... But Rubio had arrived at one of the least ambitious moments in Senate history ... Rubio must convince voters that his decision to leave ... is ... a mark of character." https://wapo.st/1N1TLp7

2016 PLAYERS -- "Marco Rubio's 'Knife Fighters,'" by BuzzFeed's McKay Coppins: "The Rubio campaign is being helmed by a combative strategist, Terry Sullivan ... The leading pro-Rubio super PAC is headed by Warren Tompkins ... Rubio's chief digital strategist, Wesley Donehue, is said to have actively hyped unsubstantiated rumors in 2010 that Nikki Haley had an affair with a local South Carolina blogger."With pic of Wesley in straw boater https://bzfd.it/1kGoVY7

CARSON STRATEGERY -- N.Y. Times, top of col. 1, "Calm Manner Helps Carson Surge in Polls:Provocative Comments Draw Evangelicals," by Trip Gabriel in Ames, Iowa: "On Facebook, Mr. Carson answers nightly questions from his 4.3 million 'friends' ... Book sales are another below-the-radar means of cultivating support. He is on a 26-day book tour, notably wending through Iowa, Florida and South Carolina, that critics derided as a campaign vacation." https://nyti.ms/1GskHx5

MEDIAWATCH: David Shepardson to Reuters - Reuters D.C. hires, beat switches - Bureau chief Kevin Krolicki emails the staff: "Jonathan Landay will join us [from McClatchy] to cover national security ... Shepardson will join Reuters [from Detroit News] to cover regulatory policy with a focus on technology and telecommunications. ... Emily Stephenson has joined the team covering the presidential election. ... Andy Sullivan has joined the domestic policy team."

-- FIRST LOOKS -- "Twitter to partner with CBS News for Iowa Democratic debate [Nov. 14]":"Twitter will provide CBS News with real-time data and insights, and will bring live reactions and questions from voters around the country onto the debate stage."

 - "Stephen K. Bannon to Headline New Morning Show 'Breitbart News Daily' Exclusively on SiriusXM": https://bit.ly/1Kyfa34

 BUSINESS BURST - WSJ A1, "Wal-Mart Shrinks the Big Box, Vexing Vendors ... seeks to boost sales with fewer products," by Sarah Nassauer: "[T]he retail behemoth has already removed about 15% of store displays over the past year, and the average Wal-Mart supercenter-home to around 120,000 products-has about 2,500 fewer items than a year ago." https://on.wsj.com/1RwCzqX

SPORTS BLINK - "Redskins [now 3-4] Complete Biggest Comeback In Team History," by Redskins.com Managing Editor Andrew Walker: "The Washington Redskins trailed 24-0 during the first half of Sunday's game vs. the Buccaneers, but came all the way back to win ... 31-30. On three occasions -- as recently as 1999 -- the Redskins have come back from a 21-point deficit to win, but they've never, in their 83-year history, done anything like they did ... Sunday." https://bit.ly/1Wd5Hdr

 FIRST LOOK - Public affairs firm Ichor Strategies launches in NYC, D.C. and L.A. - Forthcoming release: "founded by Eric Eve ... and Karen Hancox."  https://politi.co/1i6N0VX

ENGAGED -- Alex Bleiweis, White House Associate Director of Scheduling Correspondence, proposed Friday to Rose Albert, a clinical social worker. Alex popped the question with custom-made ice cream containers that said "Ring Around the Rosie." Alex then surprised her the next evening with an engagement party attended by friends and family. Pic  https://bit.ly/1i6FzOG

WEEKEND WEDDINGS -- AVIK ROY married SARAH WILLIAMS this weekend at St. Thomas Fifth Avenue in New York. Sarah is founder and CEO of Pro Bono Speaks. Roy is advising Marco Rubio on public policy. Pic https://bit.ly/1OQaNIf ... Bonus tweet from Grover Norquist https://bit.ly/1NuVce6

--Lindsay Hamilton, Chief of Staff at the Center for American Progress, married Phil Elwood, SVP at Ipsos.Pic https://bit.ly/1N1EaWv

 -- Gintautas Dumcius, reporter for MassLive.com, married PR pro Amy Derjue on Saturday. Pichttps://bit.ly/1LQsGRt

 - "Adrianne Berman, Mitchell Malasky" - NYT: "Mrs. Malasky, 29, works in Alexandria ... [for] Grant Thornton ... Mr. Malasky, 30, is the media center director for the" DNC. With pic https://nyti.ms/1OPF4XM

BIRTHDAYS: Hillary Rodham Clinton is 68 ... NYT's Mark Landler ... Reuters' Caren Bohan, the pride of Dover, Mass. ... Paula Faris, "The View" co-host, is 4-0 ... Bloomberg's Tom Johnson, an ABC News alum ... HuffPo's Nico Pitney ... Jefrey Pollock, president of Global Strategy Group (h/t Glen Caplin) ... Frank Lavin (h/t Carl, Karl) ... Scott Jennings, a Bush 43 and McConnell-world alum, now principal at RunSwitch Public Relations in Lexington, Ky., is 38 ... Richard Yamada, American Mathematical Society Congressional Fellow at U.S. Senate ... Phil Blando ... Max McGloin ... Mark Rozell ... Ilia Rodriguez ... Aakash Kumar ... Morgan Corr ... Cotton Puryear is 52 (h/t Stach) ...

... NBC's Katy Tur, spending the day on the road with Trump in NH (h/t Erika Masonhall) ... Politico's Dani Feldman ... Kristin Lynch, comms for Rep. Jared Polis and a Mark Udall alum ... Christine Stineman, partner at Strategic Elements LLC and campaign manager at the (Bloomberg/Murdoch backed) Partnership for a New American Economy, who celebrated by enjoying Des Moines' finer nightlife spots with friends (hubby tip: John Stineman) ... Aleta Greer of Glover Park Group ... Beth Ver Steeg is 21 (h/t boyfriend Jesse Rifkin) ... Aiden O'Connell of LCV is 27 (H/t DJW) ... Simon Boehme, a Truman Scholar, Mitchell Scholar and member of the Education Dept.'s National Advisory Committee on Institutional Quality and Integrity, is 24 (h/t Daniel Strunk) ... Molly Fitzgerald, director of comms. and marketing for Biothera and a Brunswick Group alum ...

... Jake O'Donnell, Van Hollen road warrior and better half of the BrO'Donnells, is 26 today (h/t lesser half) ... Shilpa Pesaru, deputy mid-Atlantic finance director for Hillary Clinton for President ... Jerry Crawford ... Michael Sabbath ... Adam Klaus ... Caroline Cunningham ... Kirk Fabel ... Graham Link ... Katrina Coleman (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) ... CBS News alum Kerri Forrest ... Nancy Pearson ... Brian Cragin ... John Grady ... actress Shelley Morrison is 79 ... author Pat Conroy is 70 ... Jaclyn Smith is 70 ... Pat Sajak is 69 ... Keith Strickland (The B-52's) is 62 ... Patrick Breen ("Madam Secretary") is 55 ... Keith Urban is 48 ... actor Tom Cavanagh is 47 ... Seth MacFarlane ("Family Guy") is 42 ... Olympic silver medal figure skater Sasha Cohen is 31 ... Schoolboy Q is 29 (h/ts AP)

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