POLITICO Playbook: BIDEN’S BURDEN: would need swift poll movement, vast hiring, buckets of money

POLITICO Playbook: BIDEN’S BURDEN: would need swift poll movement, vast hiring, buckets of money

Good Tuesday morning. THE CONVERSATION: Fiorina fades in CNN/ORC, falling from 15% to 4% in a month. https://cnn.it/1LAK5NT

INSIDE THE CAMPAIGNS -- Eli Stokols: In Denver on Sunday night, George W. Bush told a hundred donors to his brother's campaign that the candidate who really gets under his skin is Ted Cruz, who worked in the policy shop of the former president's 2000 campaign in Austin: "I just don't like the guy." (43 has done four Jeb fundraisers in less than a month.) Cruz replied: "I have great respect for George W Bush, and was proud to work on his 2000 campaign and in his administration." https://politi.co/1OPLvZr

By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; [email protected]) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; [email protected])

**SUBSCRIBE to Playbook: https://politi.co/1M75UbX

BIDEN'S BARRIERS -- Edward-Isaac Dovere and Gabriel Debenedetti: "He'll ... have to hope that the argument being made by his advisers is correct: that 2016 is the Joe Biden election, with an electorate desperately yearning for the authenticity that's always been his brand and searching for the middle-class values that no one else running strikes quite like he does ... People who've spoken to him about running say he believes all that could fall into place. ...

"With just over three months until the Iowa caucuses, ... [he] would have to make people believe right away that Clinton is not the reason he's getting in the race. ... For Biden's campaign to seem like more than a lark, he'd [need] an immediate surge in polls, ... leapfrogging Sanders and cutting into Clinton ... Every trip ... would require a paid ride on Air Force Two. Between that and the Secret Service and advance staff required when the vice president goes anywhere, each campaign stop could run tens of thousands ...

"Biden ... has no political operation in place ... [To help with] fundraising, media and messaging, field, travel, policy, ... the vice president would need to immediately hire a host of Dem professionals who are either willing to jump ship ... or, more realistically, to reel in some pros who were planning to sit out 2016."https://politi.co/1Pwo9cQ

TWEETS DU JOUR: Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart): "If I were Biden, I'd take advantage of this moment to tell different friends different things, just to see who leaks and who he can trust" ...@frankthorpNBC:"There's a new @VP Biden-decision @Snapchat geofilter" https://bit.ly/1PwanH6

WASHPOST ruffled the Gang of 500 last evening by accidentally posting a 1,600- word, just-in-case story, "Biden to launch a presidential campaign," by Paul Kane: "His public consideration of the race was originally dismissed by many Washington insiders ... It evolved into the plausible candidacy of an elder statesman."

--The file was quickly replaced with: "Editor's note: This file was inadvertently published." PK explained on Twitter: "It happened when editors were embedding video file": "I have a he-says-no story also written."

--Deputy National Editor Scott Wilson emailed his troops, with subject line "The mistake tonight": "It's inexcusable. ... People are laughing at us on Twitter, yes. But PLEASE let's not get into online exchanges over this - let them have fun, and it will burn out. We'll only increase the mirth if we are defensive. ... We are working with other newsroom departments to make sure this does not happen again." Read the dummy story.https://bit.ly/1M4kXVi

2016 PLAYERS - L.A. Times, bottom A1 (with big pic), "Dreamer takes action: A Peruvian-born Clinton backer jumps into the campaign battle, pressing young Latinos to vote," by Kate Linthicum in Brooklyn (online: "Never eligible to vote, young immigrant plays key role in Clinton campaign"): "As Latino outreach director, [Lorella] Praeli spends her days ... winning endorsements from Latino leaders and fine-tuning ... messages to ... the nation's fastest-growing bloc of voters. ... Praeli hopes to obtain citizenship in time to vote in the election that she is helping shape." https://lat.ms/1KlJ3Du

MIKE MURPHY, head of Jeb super PAC, "Explains His Theory That Jeb Bush Is Still The Candidate to Beat," by Bloomberg Politics' Sasha Issenberg: "[W]e got this paper crown of frontrunner early that we didn't want and I don't think realistically we should have had. Because what happens is when the punditocracy says, 'You're the frontrunner,' then they take a bunch of meaningless polls and a Donald Trump or a Kardashian or whatever jumps in and they say, 'Now you're not the frontrunner.' So they put you on trial for them being wrong at the beginning. I think we're getting a little bit of a bad rap on all that stuff but, you know, who cares? We're going to power through it."

--On Trump: "It created a false zombie frontrunner. He's dead politically, he'll never be president of the United States, ever. By definition I don't think you can be a frontrunner if you're totally un-electable. I think there's there an a-priori logic problem in that."

--On the long-term plan: "From February 1 to March 15, we have a bunch of big states; Ohio, Florida, Illinois, North Carolina probably. ... We see February 1 to March 15, 45 days, as our period to seize the nomination and get in front ... Most of these other guys are all running on spec. We're at a point now where we're significantly funded for those 45 days ... Nobody else is in that situation in this race. Nobody's close."

--On his spending priorities: "We're very focused on March. We're going to start buying March television time very shortly." https://bloom.bg/1RTDZg4

ANDREW ROSS SORKIN 's "Dealbook" column on N.Y. Times B1, "A Bloomberg Run? Drums Are Beating": "Bloomberg has told friends that if in March, the deadline for when an independent candidate would need to declare a run, the leading candidates were in his view problematic, he would reconsider. But only if he could win." https://nyti.ms/1OFOqoW 

** A message from Altria. While you may not know the name, chances are you do know many of our companies. Altria is more than just tobacco, and today our companies are focused on evolving as adult consumer preferences change. For a closer look at Altria today, visit bit.ly/altriatoday **

DAILY TRUMP: As of yesterday, Trump is the longest-lasting "fad" candidate to remain the frontrunner in a presidential primary - among both Ds and Rs - since at least 2004, per Bruce Mehlman at Mehlman Castagnetti in his quarterly Washington Update. "The Donald's 91 days (3 + months!) at the front of the pack put him well ahead of other one-time front-running 'fad' candidates like Herman Cain (22 days in '12), Mike Huckabee (37 days in '08), Newt Gingrich (44 days in '12), Lieberman (63 days in '04) and Howard Dean (90 days in '04)." https://bit.ly/1LvleON

 --"Bush plummets to single digits in ... Florida poll," by Marc Caputo: "Bush's 9-percent, fourth-place showing in the University of North Florida poll is his worst showing in any survey of likely Florida Republican voters. ... Rubio ... runs in third, with 14.9 percent of the GOP vote. Carson, a West Palm Beach resident, is at 19.3 percent. Trump, a part-time Palm Beach resident, is at 21.7 percent." https://politi.co/1klSvlu Read and subscribe to Marc's Florida Playbook https://politi.co/1JDm23W

--WSJ A1, at fold, "Trump, Carson Gain Steam in GOP Poll," by Janet Hook: "Trump ... was the first choice of GOP primary voters, with 25% support, up from 21% in a late September Journal/NBC News poll. ... Carson ... placed second in the new survey, with 22% support, a slight rise over last month ... Rubio ... rose to 13% in the poll from 11% last month. He was the only other GOP candidate to draw double-digit support." Cruz 9%, Bush: 8%, Fiorina 7%. https://on.wsj.com/1LAG245

HAPPENING TODAY -- "Key Bloc of Black Mayors to Back Hillary," by NBC's Perry Bacon: "Clinton will announce [today] that 50 current and former black mayors are backing her, including Michael Nutter of Philadelphia, Kasim Reed of Atlanta and Steve Benjamin, the mayor of Columbia [S.C.] and president of the African American Mayors Association." https://nbcnews.to/1RlDAly

CHRYSTIA FREELAND re-elected as a Liberal Canadian MP -- Toronto Star's Daniel Otis: "Freeland is an award-winning author and a former editor at the [Financial Times,] Globe and Mail and Thomson Reuters. ... Freeland, who lives in the newly created riding [electoral district], ran a campaign that focused on job creation, rail safety and improving transit." https://on.thestar.com/1M30zh8 A Twitter pic of her and her daughter on election day https://bit.ly/1jymSFc

THE LEAD AMERICAN CONSULTANT for Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada, the upset winner in federal elections last night, was Precision Strategies (partners Stephanie Cutter, Jen O'Malley Dillon, Teddy Goff). Since 2013, Precision has helped the LPC and Team Trudeau map the path to victory in specific ridings (precincts) across the country -- data work, paid digital ads, field, strategy.

--Precision will send this email this morning -- subject line, "Here's how you win a historic election upset": "[C]hoose a leader with a vision for real change-and the skill to articulate it. ... [B]ring it home with of a lot of grit and perseverance. In other words, Canuck the hell out of it."

--"Canadians oust Keystone champion: Liberal victor Justin Trudeau blamed Prime Minister Stephen Harper for increasing tensions with Obama," by Politico's Elana Schor: "Obama will wake up ... with a new Canadian leader who's more interested in helping him reach a global climate change deal ... Trudeau led his [left-leaning] Liberal Party to a decisive win ... Harper's Conservatives' ... nine-year reign has been marked by notable friction with the U.S. over Obama's slowness to decide on Keystone." https://politi.co/1RluZ2g

--POLITICS OF CHANGE -- "A stunning election result - and a lesson in the politics of humility," by Susan Delacourt of Ottawa-based iPolitics: "Monday night's astonishing results have to be seen as a firm rejection to Harper [whose dream was to recast Canada as a more conservative country]. In the relentlessly positive Trudeau, Canadians have chosen ... Harper's absolute opposite. ... This election has been a humbling journey for all of the political parties. ... When [Trudeau] went into this campaign, he was running third."https://bit.ly/1QO5U02

 --HOW IT'S PLAYING: Toronto Star banner, "It's a new Canada" ... Globe and Mail banner, "TRUDEAU TRIUMPHS" ... National Post banner, "MAJORITY: Trudeau leads liberals to historic comeback" ... N.Y. Times, top of col. 1, "In Canada, Stunning Rout By Trudeau Harper's Conservatives Are Soundly Beaten."

FOURTH QUARTER - USA Today, across bottom of 1A, "Obama enlists corporate America to sell clean energy," by Greg Korte (online: "Obama: Clean energy is good for business, not just 'tree-huggers'"): "The White House is enlisting Fortune 500 CEOs in its attempts to reach a breakthrough agreement on climate change, announcing agreements with 68 more companies committed to reducing their greenhouse gasses ahead of international talks in Paris ... putting a business-friendly face on his clean energy initiatives."https://usat.ly/1GQuW92

INSTAGRAMS DU JOUR -- @petesouza: "President Obama looks at the moon through a telescope on #astronomynight" https://bit.ly/1PDmmlp ... @whitehouse: "Take a look at the millions of galaxies that populate the patch of sky known as the COSMOS field, short for Cosmic Evolution Survey."https://bit.ly/1GfHNHo

 MEDIAWATCH -- WashPost Style front, lower right corner, "A top editor at The Post will helm ESPN site," by Paul Farhi: Kevin "Merida, 58 [one of two managing editors, the #2 job after Executive Editor Marty Baron], will join ESPN [as editor in chief of] a ... digital venture called the Undefeated[,] ... which aims to cover the intersection of race, culture and sports in the United States. The Undefeated has often been called 'the Black Grantland' ... Its founding editor, ... Jason Whitlock, was demoted in June after a troubled tenure in building up the site's staff ...

"Merida ... was the first African American to hold the [paper's] managing-editor job ... 'We're in the digital age, and we're not starting magazines and newspapers anymore,' he said. 'But there are digital start-ups, and this is a chance to create something new. It's a great opportunity at this stage of my career.' ...

"Merida said the Undefeated - which will be based in Washington - will consist of 'great narrative work,' investigative and accountability reporting, commentary, still and video photography ... The site currently has seven employees. Merida said the number will increase 'significantly,' but he declined to be specific. ... Baron said he has made no decisions about replacing Merida." https://wapo.st/1RltnFK

--"Megyn Kelly Sees Ratings Rise Since Debate Clash," by TVNewser's Mark Joyella: "On Sunday night, Trump urged his supporters to get Kelly's attention by turning off Fox News between 9 and 10 p.m. ... But ... Nielsen ratings ... show Trump's ongoing 'feud' with Kelly ... has done nothing to hurt her popularity. Since the August 6 Fox ... debate, 'The Kelly File' is up 9% among total viewers and up 6% in the ... 25-54 demo versus the eight months preceding the debate." https://bit.ly/1MASxN7

--VIDEO: Megyn Kelly grills Marco Rubio: "BUSH: RUBIO 'MISLED' ON FUNDRAISING."https://bit.ly/1QOaGug

CONVENTIONWATCH -- "Journalists Urge Republicans Not To Charge For Workspaces At 2016 Convention," by HuffPost's Michael Calderone: "The Northeast Ohio Media Group reported ... that journalists will not be charged to attend the convention, held in July at Cleveland's Quicken Loans Arena, but will have to pay $150 ... for a workspace that includes [an] electrical outlet." https://huff.to/1GfEzn6

VALLEY TALK - WSJ A1, at fold, "TECH STARTUPS FEEL THE IPO CHILL: Sky-high valuations start to backfire on some Silicon Valley companies," by Rolfe Winkler, Douglas MacMillan, Telis Demos and Monica Langley: "[T]his year, ... 14% of IPOs in the U.S. were done by tech companies, the smallest percentage since at least the mid-1990s ... Many U.S. based companies that went public ... have seen their stock prices suffer, posting a median return of zero." https://on.wsj.com/1MATq8o

 BUSH ALUMNI - MARK McCLELLAN named director of Duke's new Health Policy Center: "The center, founded with a $16.5 million gift from Duke medical school alumnus Robert J. Margolis and his wife Lisa ... will connect the intellectual resources at Duke with policymakers and policy analysts in the public and private sector. ... McClellan is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and director of the Health Care Innovation and Value Initiatives, and much of this work will be moving to the new Duke-Margolis Center."https://bit.ly/1LlksTo

TRANSITIONS - OBAMA ALUMNI -- Elizabeth Jarvis-Shean , former Obama White House and 2012 research director, has joined Nuna, a San Francisco-based healthcare technology company, as head of comms. She was previously director of global comms at Tesla and a senior comms. advisor at Civis Analytics.

HAPPENING TOMORROW at 7 p.m."The United States Holocaust Memorial Museum is sponsoring a ... discussion ... on FDR's handling of the Holocaust, featuring Jay Winik, the best-selling author of "1944: FDR and the Year That Changed History," and Richard Breitman, the co-author of "FDR and the Jews." PETER BAKER will offer a contemporary perspective. RSVP https://bit.ly/1MR47rV

 WEEKEND WEDDING -- Sara Costin of the Costin Outreach Group and former Clinton/Gore Northeast political director, married Chris Mockus, VP of CM/PM Transportation of AECOM, over the weekend in Newport Beach, CA. The sunset wedding, officiated by Harvey Englander, managing partner of EKA, felt like a pseudo Clinton/Gore reunion. Pics https://politi.co/1MR3kqR ... https://politi.co/1klRBpc

SPOTTED: Susan (Hirschfeld) and Dan Unger, Tracy (Olmstead) and Ben Austin, Liana Schwarz and Mike Montgomery, Aviva and Dan Rosenthal, Lisa (Levin) and David Beaubaire, Janna Sidley, Amanda Crumley, Mary McGuire, Stacie Spector and Ken Bailey, Lisa (Cowell) and Ray Shams.

BIRTHDAYS : NYT's Matt Apuzzo, an AP alum, is 37... Morgan Allen, second son of Scott and Sheri (hat tip: Evan) ... Greg Lowman of Sphere Consulting (h/t Courto) ... Josie Martin (h/t Uncle Jonathan) ... Michelle Malkin is 45 ... Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) is 60 ... former Labor Secretary Hilda Solis is 58 ... Beth Mason ... Greg Propper (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) ... L.E. Simmons (h/t nephew Peter Watkins) ... Pablo Manriquez ... Rep. John Ratcliffe (R-Tex) (h/t Matt Mackowiak) ... WashPost senior editor at large Ann Gerhart ... Gil Klein ... Lamia Rezgui ... Evan Zuckerman ... Ellison Barber ... Nelson Mullins' Mick Nardelli ... Colleen O'Kane ... Khelan Bhatia, AARP manager of voter education ... Clare McCann, special assistant at the U.S. Dept. of Education ... Jeffrey Zubricki ...

... Gordon Pennoyer, formerly with RNC conventions, now director of strategic comms. at Chesapeake Energy ... Bloomberg's Christie Boyden, the pride of Leesburg, Va. ... Lamia Rezgui ... Justin Hart, VP of Surf Air ... Thomas Willard, principal analyst at NearMedia ... Colleen Rhodes Culbreth ... Taylor Gerlach ...Japan's Empress Michiko is 81 ... Tom Petty is 65 ... Jim Sonefeld (Hootie & The Blowfish) is 51 ... Snoop Lion (formerly Snoop Dogg) is 44 ... actress Jennifer Nicole Freeman is 30 (h/ts AP)

DESSERT - Trailer for "Star Wars: The Force Awakens," expected to be one of the most successful films of all time, debuts on "Monday Night Football"; ticketing sites crash -- AP's Lindsey Bahr in L.A.: "The 2:35 minute spot offered teases into the backstories of the ... newest characters, like John Boyega's Finn, a stormtrooper who's questioning his allegiances, Daisy Ridley's scavenger Rey, seen exploring an old ship, and Adam Driver's Darth Vader-obsessed Kylo Ren. 'The Force Awakens' takes place some 30 years after ... 'Return of the Jedi' ...

"The trailer ... gave fans their first look at Carrie Fisher, who is reprising her role as Princess Leia. Luke Skywalker, portrayed again by Mark Hamill, has yet to be seen in full in any of the film's advertisements and is suspiciously missing from the official poster, too. ... 'Monday Night Football' airs on ESPN, which, like Lucasfilm, is a subsidiary of The Walt Disney Company." https://yhoo.it/1jyp8MP See the trailer.https://bit.ly/1klVUAH

 ** A message from Altria. Our family of companies includes some of the most enduring names in American business: Philip Morris USA, U.S. Smokeless Tobacco Company, John Middleton, Ste. Michelle Wine Estates, and Nu Mark, an innovation company which makes e-vapor products. We know our companies' products aren't for everyone, so we're working to meet society's expectations - while producing quality products for adults.

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Gehrig Wiles - MBA

Change Management Advisory and Consulting Services

9 年

So Martin, how are things on Mt. Olympus?

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Martin Wright

Using my proven knowledge/expertise in Administration to the advantage of a Great Employer. Unfluencer??

9 年

Why is there such a paucity of interesting or viable candidates - on any side?

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Paolo di Montorio-Veronese

Chairman ???? ANTARCTICA Foundation

9 年

Dear Vice President, there is still a little bit of time...just about...."when there is a will, there is a way".

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C. Anderson "Andy" Romagnano

Democratic candidate for Emerald Coast Utilities Authority District 3

9 年

Biden doesn't have a chance. 2016 is the year of the woman. Women are tired of being pushed around by sexist men and this campaign by Biden would be an example of that. Accept it men, women's equality is coming to America.

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Robert Giffin

Security Engineer at By Light Professional IT Services

9 年

Does it not bother anyone that we all freely acknowledge that a candidate requires 'buckets of money' to run for office? Any office? It's like, this is how it should be. What does this say about our political system? We all seem to acknowledge this, does this mean that the majority LIKE it this way and want to keep it? I certainly don't like OR support it.

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