POLITICO Playbook: BIDEN CAMPAIGN would draw Obama alumni, who are conflicted

Good Monday morning from last day in Seattle; headed back tonight.

THE CONVERSATION - "Potential Biden run divides Obama orbit," by Isaac Dovere: "While many say they'll stick by Clinton, several members of the Obama orbit acknowledge they've become hesitant to say positive things publicly about Clinton, worried that this could be interpreted as tipping Obama's hand toward her or insulting Biden. ... Part of the problem is Biden's timing. ... If Biden got in at this point, 'a lot of Obama folks would be like, "We love him,"' said [one] Obama campaign aide, 'but I don't see the path for him.' ...

"Obama seemed confident enough that Biden would skip the race to go short of endorsing Clinton outright ... West Wing ... staffers still haven't gotten together to talk through what a candidacy would actually mean, both in terms of internal logistics and the political navigation. ... [A] number of Obama veterans say confidently that there'd be a heavy dose of Obama alumni who'd show up for a Biden campaign." https://politi.co/1JuI08F

By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; [email protected]) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; [email protected])

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--WSJ A1, below fold, "Biden Leans Toward A Run, As Trump Rattles GOP Rivals," by Carol Lee and Reid Epstein: "Biden would enter as a clear underdog. ... Still, the vice president's deliberations illustrate how, with just six months before the first ... contests, both major parties' campaigns are in a state of flux. Democrats are increasingly insecure about Mrs. Clinton's candidacy." https://on.wsj.com/1PLXkyt

--Boston Globe, bottom of A1, "Moulton hints he'd support a run by Biden ," by Jim O'Sullivan: U.S. Rep. "Seth Moulton [a Marine Iraq war veteran from Salem], who bucked establishment Democrats last year in unseating a nine-term incumbent [Richard Tisei], has signaled he is open to breaking ranks again, hinting at support for Vice President Joe Biden if he decides to run." https://bit.ly/1JNpqKP

--TRACK THE LATEST ELIZABETH WARREN intrigue: Today is the debut of Politico's Massachusetts Playbook, written in Boston by Lauren Dezenski, one of Beacon Hill's best-wired rising stars. Join the New England conversation by clicking the blue "subscribe" button here. #mapoli #bospoli

FORTHCOMING RELEASE - "Vice President Biden Announces New Communications Director": "The Vice President [will announce] today that Kate Bedingfield will serve as his Communications Director, starting [today]. She succeeds Shailagh Murray, who was appointed Senior Advisor to President Obama. Bedingfield comes to the Vice President's office from Motion Picture Association of America, where she was the Vice President of Corporate Communications. ...

"Prior to working at MPAA, Bedingfield was an associate communications director at the White House where she managed communications planning around the Administration's priorities. While at the White House, Bedingfield also served as the Deputy Director of Media Affairs and the Director of Response. [Before that, she worked on John Edwards presidential campaign and was] communications director for Jeanne Shaheen for Senate. ... A native of Atlanta, ... Bedingfield graduated from the University of Virginia. She and her husband live in Washington ... with their son."

WHITE HOUSE PROMOTIONS: "Jeff Tiller [maestro of the rainbow lighting at the White House the night of the #LoveWins decision] has been named Associate Communications Director. Most recently, he [was] Director of Specialty Media. Tiller previously worked as Special Assistant to the Press Secretary and Senior Press Lead in the Office of Scheduling and Advance. Tiller joined the White House in 2010. ...

"Hallie Ruvin has been promoted to Director of Specialty Media. Ruvin [was] Associate Regional Communications Director and previously did press advance for the White House and on the 2012 campaign. [Before] joining the White House, she worked at the State Department."

TWEET DU JOUR -- @rupertmurdoch: "With Trump becoming very serious candidate, it's time for next billionaire candidate, Mike Bloomberg to step into ring. Greatest mayor."

NEW CHRISTIE AD OUT THIS AM - He speaks directly to camera, interspersed with scary images on the screen and a foreboding soundtrack: "Lawlessness in America and around the world under Barack Obama. Sanctuary cities engulfing Americans in crime. Drugs running rampant and destroying lives. ISIS beheading Christians. Iranian radicals and nuclear weapons. Now Hillary Clinton thinks the law doesn't apply to her. Really? We need a strong law-enforcer as president." Video https://bit.ly/1NOZRqw

SOUNDBITE OF THE DAY: California Gov. Jerry Brown to Chuck Todd on "Meet the Press": "This email thing, it has kind of a mystique to it. You know, an email is just an utterance in digital form. But it has some kind of a dark energy that gets everybody excited. So I don't know how - it's almost like a vampire. She's going to have to find a stake and put it right through the heart of these emails in some way." Video https://nbcnews.to/1EeINKA ... Transcripthttps://nbcnews.to/1hCk3Cf

--"Clinton's Iowa message for 2016 is less global, more local," by AP's Catherine Lucey in Des Moines: "Clinton has gone hyperlocal in Iowa. ... [She] has spoken about the Republican governor's efforts to close mental health institutions, mourned a murder in an Iowa City area mall, deplored the deportation of an area pastor originally from Honduras and peppered her remarks with all sorts of other regional references. ... The approach is a stylistic shift from ... 2008." https://yhoo.it/1Lsm7Go

PICS DU JOUR -- Derek Dye @voterdye: "Facebook tells me Aaron Schock has resurfaced in West Hollywood [at the Equinox gym]:" https://bit.ly/1JuthKX

--@kurtbardella: "1st post @TheDailyShow appearance for #JonStewart - hosting @WWE @SummerSlam": https://bit.ly/1fAMKxo

** A message from PhRMA: DYK? Medicine prices fall significantly over time because the biopharmaceutical marketplace is unlike any other part of the health care system. Innovator companies invest in research to develop new medicines, and over time they become available as lower-cost generic versions - typically up to 80% less. Read more at https://onphr.ma/1J7ezb6. **

BREAKING - "Stock Rout Spreads Through Europe After China Plunge," by Bloomberg's Nick Gentle and Stephen Kirkland: "A wave of selling gripped global markets as the rout in all but the safest assets deepened. Chinese shares tumbled by the most since 2007, stocks in Germany headed for a bear market ... 'Everyone seems to be selling off, and there's panic,' said Michael Woischneck [of] Lampe Asset Management GmbH in Dusseldorf." https://bloom.bg/1Purwh4

DEEP DIVE -- "The ISIS alumni association of Europe : A new generation of terrorists moves freely across EU borders and can tap into an international network," by Politico's Vince Chadwick in Brussels, with Matt Kaminski: "Call them a new European generation of terror. Coming from across the Continent, thousands of twentysomething men, with a handful of women among them, are heading to Iraq and Syria. ... Back on European soil, graduated if you will from this terrorist Erasmus program, they're hard to track." https://politi.co/1NEySQw

WORTH THE CLICK -- EVAN OSNOS in The New Yorker, " The Fearful and the Frustrated: Donald Trump's nationalist coalition takes shape-for now" (Homepage headline: "Trump and the White Nationalists: By stoking paranoia about immigration, Trump has found a following among far-right extremists"): "Trump's campaign announcement was mocked and condemned-and utterly successful. ... How did a real campaign emerge from a proposition so ludicrous that an episode of 'The Simpsons' once used a Trump Presidency as the conceit for a dystopian future? ...

"To inhabit Trump's landscape for a while, to chase his jet or stay behind with his fans in a half-dozen states, is to encounter a confederacy of the frustrated-less a constituency than a loose alliance of Americans who say they are betrayed by politicians, victimized by a changing world, and enticed by Trump's insurgency. ... Trump's candidacy has already left a durable mark ... Trump has bequeathed a concoction of celebrity, wealth, and alienation that is more potent than any we've seen before." https://nyr.kr/1U22zQI

PALACE INTRIGUE -- GABE SHERMAN in N.Y. mag, "The Heirs: A three-way[,] mostly civilized family contest to become the next publisher of The Times": "Three finalists have emerged ... chairman and publisher Arthur Ochs Sulzberger Jr.'s 35-year-old son, Arthur Gregg 'A.G.' Sulzberger, best known for leading the committee that produced the digital wake-up call known as the 'Innovation Report'; Sulzberger's nephew David Perpich, 38, a Harvard M.B.A. who successfully launched the paper's digital subscriptions; and Sam Dolnick, 34, the son of Sulzberger's cousin Lynn Golden Dolnick, an influential and outspoken fourth-generation family member. A.G. and Sam have ascended through the newsroom ranks as Perpich climbed the business side. ...

"Inside the competitive newsroom of the Times, job appointments are forensically dissected by Times journalists ... So it's not surprising that handicapping the race between the Sulzberger cousins is a popular pastime at the paper. ... The cousins rarely, if ever, acknowledge any suggestion of a rivalry. 'They hate the idea of a horse race,' a Times staffer says. ... All three cousins grew up steeped in Times mythology, gathering at Hillandale, the onetime Sulzberger Connecticut estate ...

"[T]he eight trustees of the Ochs-Sulzberger trust, which elects 70 percent of the company's board of directors, are not automatically lined up in A.G.'s favor, a senior executive with knowledge of the family dynamics told me. The Golden wing has the most votes, with three trustees (Sam's uncle Michael, aunt Trudy, and cousin Hays). Arthur and his brother-in-law Steven Green represent the Sulzbergers. Perpich can count on his father, Joe. The swing votes include Carolyn Greenspon, who's said to back Dolnick or Perpich; and James Cohen, who's said to be undecided." https://nym.ag/1KH3M5B

SENATE RACES: GOP already spending big - Manu Raju: "On paper, Democrats are in prime position to make Mitch McConnell a one-term majority leader. Republicans are on defense across the map, with 24 incumbents trying to keep their seats versus just 10 for Democrats. Only two Democratic-held seats, Sen. Michael Bennet's in Colorado and ... Harry Reid's in Nevada, are seen as winnable for Republicans. At least seven GOP-controlled seats are at risk of flipping.

"Republicans currently have a 54-46 advantage, so Democrats need to pick up five seats, or four if they win the White House and have the vice president to break a tie. The problem is that despite that advantage, Democrats know full well they'll be outspent, probably by a lot. ...

"Republican groups have already dropped more than $12 million - compared with just $2.5 million from Democrats, according to media tracking sources. It's far more cash than at a similar point in the 2012 cycle, when groups from both sides had spent about $2 million each. Republican groups are wasting little time bashing Democrats on issues as diverse as the Iran nuclear deal to health care." https://politi.co/1Jr4rHt

FOURTH QUARTER - N.Y. Times, top of col. 1, "News Analysis: Future Risks Of Iran Deal -- Fears on What Comes After Its 15-Year Limit," by David Sanger and Michael Gordon: Obama's "problem is that most of the significant constraints on Tehran's program lapse after 15 years - and, after that, Iran is free to produce uranium on an industrial scale. ... Even some of the most enthusiastic backers of the agreement ... fear Mr. Obama has oversold some of the accord's virtues as he asserts that it would 'block' all pathways to a nuclear weapon." https://nyti.ms/1EdB8fu

--Las Vegas Review Journal lead, "Reid supports Iran nuke deal: 'BEST PATH FORWARD'" https://bit.ly/1EQrqKX

POLITICAL LORE - WashPost Style lead, "Has the clock stopped for Dixville Notch? A down-at-the-heels corner of New Hampshire, famous for its midnight first-to-vote status, tries to save the tradition," by Ben Terris in Dixville Notch: "Dixville was always too small to be recognized as an actual town, but like a political version of Brigadoon, it appeared every four years. This was home to the midnight voters, the 20-some-odd folks who gathered at the Balsams [ski resort] to cast the first ballots in the nation. Polls closed by 12:07 a.m., ensuring that the results and the funny dateline would appear ... in newspapers throughout the country. ...

"But when the Balsams closed in 2011, it took Dixville with it. ... Millsfield [12 mi., 30 mins away] will almost definitely hold a midnight vote next year. No one should be surprised if Dixville pulls it off, as well. ... The real race won't take place on primary night; it's taking place now. If both places hold a midnight vote, there's still no telling where the reporters will show up. Or if they'll bother to show up at all." https://wapo.st/1MO1fN1

TRAIL MIX - "Trump attended big-donor fundraiser last month," by Katy O'Donnell: "[E]ven as Trump publicly scorned other candidates' use of super PACs, he tacitly gave approval to the Make America Great Again PAC by attending a fundraiser the group held in New York last month. Trump spoke for between 10 and 15 minutes at the mid-July fundraiser, where about 200 people packed into a private residence in Manhattan." https://politi.co/1hV6M7E

WHAT IOWA IS READING - "Caucus politics can't cool longtime friendship," by Des Moines Register columnist Kathie Obradovich : "Iowa Democratic Party Press Secretary Josh Levitt ... [and] Charlie Szold, the communications director for the Republican Party of Iowa ... are buddies. Levitt, 25, of New York, and Szold, 25, of Connecticut, met eight years ago as freshmen living on the same dorm floor at American University." https://dmreg.co/1JMhV79

ENGAGED - Polson Kanneth, senior editorial producer at CNN's "State of the Union" and an ABC News alum, was engaged Saturday to Sandy Kotha, a senior business analyst at Capital One. He proposed on the bridge between Woodley Park and Cleveland Park on Connecticut Ave., where he first told her he loved her. WashPost's Ed O'Keefe and his wife, Valerie, were there to take pics. https://bit.ly/1JfksmN

WEEKEND WEDDINGS:

SCOTT CONROY, Jo Kent -- NYT: "William M. Gardner, the secretary of state of New Hampshire and a justice of the peace, officiated [at the Mountain View Grand Resort in the nape of the Presidential Range in Whitefield, N.H.]. ... Kent, 31, ... is a correspondent in New York for the Fox Business Network. ... Conroy, 32, is the senior political reporter for The Huffington Post in New York. He is an author of 'Sarah From Alaska: The Sudden Rise and Brutal Education of a New Conservative Superstar.' He graduated from Georgetown." With pic https://nyti.ms/1I6IH2q

--POOL REPORT: "They were regaled with the blessing of the married hug, the blessing of the journey, and The Wolfman's Brother meditation. Recessional Hymn: Loving Cup (Phish Version) ... First Dance: Leon Bridges: Coming Home." Pic of the couple kissing next to their cake https://bit.ly/1KfbtnE The couple dancing https://bit.ly/1U1J6j1

--SPOTTED: Bill Gardner, Pierre S. DuPont IV, Steve Chaggaris, Shushannah Walshe, Peter Hamby, Jackie Alemany, Elizabeth Holmes, Tyler Jameson, Tim Miller, Emily Chang, Evan Osnos, Kevin Gamble, Adriana Diaz, Dave Salvo, Victor Paige, Sandra Smith, Suzy Greenberg, and the one and only Carl Cannon.

TORRIE MILLER, comms director for Sen. Richard Shelby/Banking Committee, and Kyle Matous, policy director for the House Rules Committee, were married at the Church of the Ascension, followed by a reception at the Montgomery Country Club. Pic https://bit.ly/1JqO5yt

--SPOTTED: Sen. Richard Shelby, Rep. Pete Sessions, Rep. Mike Rogers, Doug Andres

Kyle O'Connor, Alec Davis, Caroline Boothe, Ryan Ethington, Rachael Leman

Robert Cousins.

--ALINA SELYUKH, a Reuters tech policy correspondent, married Brian Pickeral, a software engineer at Freddie Mac, at Westwood Farm in Orange, Va. on Saturday. Pic https://bit.ly/1NOLr9X

BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): John Hall of Targeted Victory ... Ian Jeffries of Association of American Railroads and a Senate Commerce alum ... Emily David, Delaware enthusiast and ASGK associate (h/t Mary Sophia Williams)

BIRTHDAYS: Todd Harris, partner at Something Else Strategies and the pride of Walnut Creek, Calif. (hat tips: Ieva, Emilija) ... David Gregory is 45 ... Major Garrett is 53 ... Mike Huckabee is 60 ... Facebook's Mary Hood, a CBS News alum ... Sen. Bob Corker ... Max Cleland ... Sen. Joe Manchin ... Natalie Strom, RNC press assistant extraordinaire (h/t Sean Spicer) ... Galia Slayen, a McAuliffe and Hagan alum, currently on the Kentucky AG race (h/t Ben Ray) ... comms guru Ricki Seidman, former Obama-Biden campaign staffer, former Clinton staffer, judicial nominations veteran and senior principal at TSD Communications (h/t Jon Haber, filing from Amsterdam) ... Bonnie Reiss, global director of the USC Schwarzenegger Institute, is ageless and spending the day in Arizona with family (h/t Conyers Davis) ...

... CBS Radio's Pam Coulter ... Politico New York's Brendan Cheney ... Sahar Wali, national comms. director for SEIU ... "Inside City Hall" host Errol Louis ... Abbie McDonough, Sen. Heitkamp's comms director ... Aaron Houston, political adviser at Ghost Group ... JB Britten ... Merrit (Martin) Gillard, senior editorial associate at CFED and a Commerce alum ... Randan "Rannie" Swindler ... Harry Rhoads Jr. ... Media Matters alum Lisa Reed ... Bob Friebert ... Joann Orner ... Emily Cherniack ... Courtney Robinson ... Danny Finnegan ... Trey Barnes ... Shirley Hufstedler, the nation's first Education Secretary (under Carter) is 90 ... Kenny Baker (R2-D2 in "Star Wars") is 81 ... Baseball Hall of Famer Cal Ripken Jr. is 55 ... Craig Kilborn is 53 ... actor-comedian Dave Chappelle is 42 ... Rupert Grint ("Harry Potter" films) is 27 (h/ts AP)

DESSERT -- One Direction "to disband in March" - The (London) Sun: "Harry Styles, Liam Payne, Louis Tomlinson and Niall Horan have mutually agreed to an extended hiatus of at least a year to pursue solo projects. The lads made the decision not to tour again at a meeting in London last weekend. The world's most successful band will NOT launch a tour to support their fifth album, a move likely to devastate their millions of fans around the world. ... 1D's new album ... will be released in time for the lucrative Christmas market." https://bit.ly/1U1IWrQ

** A message from PhRMA: Medicine prices fall significantly over time because the biopharmaceutical marketplace is unlike any other part of the health care system. Innovator companies invest in research to develop new medicines, and over time they become available as lower-cost generic versions. Nearly 90% of all medicines dispensed in the U.S. are generics and typically cost up to 80% less. For example, the average price for cholesterol-lowering Lipitor dropped from $85 a month to $4 - a 95% drop in price. Savings created by generics free up resources to invest in new treatments - creating headroom for continued innovation. Read more at https://onphr.ma/1J7ezb6. **

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