POLITICO Playbook: BELTWAY GOP THINKS it’s down to Trump and Cruz: One amazing thing the two have in common

GAME CHANGE: There's an increasing belief at the top of the GOP that, barring a shock, the race is effectively down to Trump and Cruz (a shock in itself). THE CONVERSATION has become: Who'd be worse? National Review and The Weekly Standard yesterday went functionally pro-Cruz by being theatrically anti-Trump. But there's a sub-rosa, and possibly larger, pro-Trump camp in the Beltway GOP, based on both pragmatism and personality. As outlined in a seminal piece this week by Politico rising star Ben Schreckinger ("How Donald Trump defeats Hillary Clinton"), Trump has a not-implausible plan for winning the general, based largely on voter anxiety plus a message of pragmatism.  https://politi.co/1nqm9rL

CNN's John King nails the pro-Trump case on "Anderson Cooper 360" on Wednesday night: "[E]stablishment figures think if it's Trump [age 69], it's just one cycle. If he loses this time, they wash their hands of him and he's gone. Ted Cruz [age 45] is their nominee and hurts them, he will blame the establishment and try to run again." https://cnn.it/1OKJtH9

--"[Sen. Lindsey] Graham: Choice between Trump, Cruz like 'being shot or poisoned,'" by Seung Min Kim and Connor O'Brien https://politi.co/1WzuuoB

--CNN's Manu Raju quotes Sen. Orrin Hatch re Cruz: "I think we'll lose if he's our nominee." https://cnn.it/1Pm6gi5

By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; [email protected]) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; [email protected])

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NEW TRUMP 1-min. ad, "Clear Difference," to air in Iowa, N.H. and S.C., goes hard against Cruz and uses footage from an interview with Bret Baier in which the senator stumbles over whether he wanted the immigration-reform bill to pass and undocumented immigrants to stay. On-air text calls Cruz "PRO IMMIGRATION" and "PRO AMNESTY."  https://bit.ly/1KuhARP

--TRUMP radio ad released this a.m. features Jerry Falwell Jr's intro of Donald at Liberty U: "I see a lot of parallels between my father and Donald Trump. ... In my opinion, Donald Trump leads a life of loving and helping others as Jesus taught in the great commandment." https://bit.ly/1Pa74Vb

NATIONAL REVIEW cover, "AGAINST TRUMP: THE EDITORS ... Glenn Beck ... David Boaz ... L. Brent Bozell III ... Mona Charen ... Ben Domenech ... Erick Erickson ... Steven F. Hayward ... Mark Helprin ... William Kristol ... Yuval Levin ... Dana Loesch ... Andrew C. McCarthy ... David M. McIntosh ... Michael Medved ... Edwin Meese III ... Russell Moore ... Michael B. Mukasey ... Katie Pavlich ... John Podhoretz ... R. R. Reno ... Thomas Sowell ... Cal Thomas Thomas."

--See the cover. https://politi.co/1ZGJ9OA ... Rich Lowry talks to Shane Goldmacher. https://politi.co/1PaduDH ... Read the editorial.  https://bit.ly/1Np7j9x ... Individual pieces, beginning with Glenn Beck  https://bit.ly/1OBMz2e

--BLOWBACK: National Review disinvited from RNC debate -- "Houston, We Have a Problem," by NR publisher Jack Fowler: "National Review was to partner, along with Salem Radio and Telemundo, [in] the debate rescheduled for February 25. [Last night], a top official with the RNC called me to say that National Review was being disinvited. The reason: Our 'Against Trump' editorial and symposium. We expected this was coming. Small price to pay for speaking the truth about The Donald."  https://bit.ly/1Kuiq0N

--@realDonaldTrump tweeted late last night: "National Review is a failing publication that has lost it's [sic] way. It's [sic] circulation is way down w its influence being at an all time low. Sad! ... Very few people read the National Review because it only knows how to criticize, but not how to lead. ... The late, great, William F. Buckley would be ashamed of what had happened to his prize, the dying National Review!"

--Weekly Standard anti-Trump editorial in forthcoming issue, "The Confidence Man," by Bill Kristol:"We have usually succeeded in distinguishing reality from reality show. ... Our presidents have been a mixed lot, but no true tin-pot Caesar has yet occupied the Oval Office."  https://tws.io/1ndceVB

AMAZING FACT - Upshot's Nate Cohn: "Neither [Trump nor Cruz] has been endorsed by a sitting governor or senator."  https://nyti.ms/1Qp408z ... AP's Erica Werner (with bonus Josh Holmes quote): "[F]our GOP senators have endorsed ... Rubio." https://apne.ws/1UfW4Wi

 

--WashPost A1, top of col. 1, "One card for Trump: He's not Ted Cruz -- GOP elite fears senator's inflexibility, finds his personality grating," by Bob Costa, Phil Rucker and David Fahrenthold: "Perhaps most notably, parts of the establishment are starting to think Trump can win."  https://wapo.st/1Pa2CG5

 

--N.Y. Times A1, bottom of page, "Trump or Cruz? G.O.P. Argues Over Who Is a Greater Threat," by Jonathan Martin: Charlie Black said that if Cruz were the nominee, "elected leaders and party elders would try to sit down and try to help Cruz run a better campaign, but he may not listen ... You can coach Donald ... If he got nominated, he'd be scared to death. ... [H]e would call people in the party and say, 'I just want to talk to you.'" https://nyti.ms/1ndfvUW

--"Cruz reveals he doesn't have health insurance," by Nick Gass: "'I'll tell you, you know who one of those millions of Americans is who's lost their health care because of Obamacare? That would be me,' Cruz told a Manchester ... audience. 'I don't have health care right now.' Cruz explained that he had purchased an individual policy and that Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Texas had canceled all of its individual policies in Texas, effective Dec. 31."  https://politi.co/1Jn8HP5

 

** A message from Boeing: In less than a century, Boeing took the world from seaplanes to space planes with decade after decade of innovation, inspiration and wonder. We're proud to celebrate our centennial anniversary as the world's largest aerospace company -- and we're ready to write history for the next 100 years. Come along for a breathtaking journey at boeing100.com. **

 

RUBIO STRATEGERY -- "Rubio scales back Iowa advertising," by Ken Vogel and Steve Shepard: "Rubio had long planned an ambitious Iowa advertising assault in the weeks leading up to the caucuses, but his campaign has quietly scaled back its ad buys in the state by more than $500,000 ... The change appears due partly to a switch from offense to defense, but it also comes at a time when the Florida senator is focusing his hopes for an early state victory in South Carolina, where his campaign is increasing its advertising buys." https://politi.co/1P9xl5W

--"Marco Rubio Releasing 'Marcomentum' Ads in Iowa, New Hampshire" - IJ.com's Justin Green, featuring average voters who say things like, "He understands my generation ... He gets the new economy ... Go Marco!" https://bit.ly/1ndcDaD

"MORNING JOE" will be back in Des Moines at Java Joe's coffeehouse for live shows on caucus day and the morning after.

TRAIL PIC - NBC embed Alexandra Jaffe @ajjaffe: "Decco made this for Rubio after the debate where he dropped this [philosophers/welders] line...he's now touring their HQ"  https://bit.ly/1OARhxg

 WORTH THE CLICK - Politico Magazine's Friday Cover, "Rubio's Crisis of Faith: Why his complicated, unique religious journey is causing him trouble with voters" who want him to "pick" between Catholicism and evangelicalism -- by Michael Kruse: "Rubio has perhaps the most unusual personal religious story of anyone on the campaign trail. ... When he talks about his faith, he sounds off-the-cuff sincere. ... Rubio wants to be saved more than he wants to be president. And the former could cost him the latter. ... There are two very different sets of people [in Florida] who believe Rubio is in THEIR congregation." https://politi.co/1ZGyrI9

WHAT WORKS: Des Moines! - "How America's Dullest City Got Cool: How one meeting, a visionary planner and old-fashioned Iowan cooperation changed Des Moines' identity," by Colin Woodard: "Des Moines tapped the latent power of the heartland - a cultural ethos of working together and good manners that's helped account for Iowa's stability - and harnessed it to an ambitious plan to jump-start downtown by building cultural amenities, attracting creative class types and retaining big employers." https://politi.co/1S8yhsj

ARTICLE OF THE DAY - WSJ A1, above fold, "New Questions on Iran Swap: A $1.7 billion payment to Tehran at time of U.S. prisoner release called ransom by some," by Jay Solomon: "The White House described the settlement as a victory for taxpayers, arguing that the U.S. was likely to lose in arbitration under way in The Hague, Netherlands, and could have been held liable for billions more if the process had dragged on." https://on.wsj.com/23iHWSh

TOP-ED - SecDef ASH CARTER on Politico, "It's Time to Accelerate the ISIL Fight": "[I]n three weeks [the counter-ISIL coalition] will meet again in Brussels ... Every nation must come prepared to discuss further contributions to the fight. Since no country is immune from an ISIL attack, no country can afford to ride free." https://politi.co/1Np3e53

YOU'RE INVITED: Please join us in downtown D.C. NEXT MONDAY for Playbook Cocktails: a one-on-one conversation with former National Security Adviser Tom Donilon, followed by a keynote interview with former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates about his new book, "A Passion for Leadership." Doors open at 5:30 p.m. at the W Hotel. RSVP: https://bit.ly/1OvLFlC

SUNDAY SO FAR:

--NBC's "Meet the Press": Exclusive with Hillary, from Iowa ... Bernie ... Roundtable: David Brooks, Chris Cillizza, Kasie Hunt, Kristen Welker

--CNN's "State of the Union": Jake Tapper interviews Jeb ... Panel: Donna Brazile, Amanda Carpenter, Bill Press, Kevin Madden

--"Fox News Sunday": Marco talks to Chris Wallace, live and exclusive from Iowa ... Rep. Adam Schiff ... Sen. James Lankford ... Power Player: Jeff Roe, Cruz campaign manager ... Panel: George Will, AP's Lisa Lerer, Michael Needham of Heritage Action for America, Juan Williams

--"Face the Nation": Trump phoner ... Bernie ... Carson ... CBS News Battleground Tracker numbers for Iowa, N.H., S.C. ... Panel: Matt Lewis, Ed O'Keefe, Ruth Marcus and Nancy Cordes

--CNN's "Inside Politics," on the road at Smokey Row Coffee in Des Moines, with Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Martin, Des Moines Register's Jennifer Jacobs, Jeff Zeleny. The show invites Des Moines political junkies to attend the live show at 8:30 a.m. ET / 7:30 a.m. local.

TOP TALKER: Snowmageddon II - "Looming blizzard could rank near top 10 to hit Eastern US," by AP's Ben Nuckols and Seth Borenstein: "Snowfall as heavy as 1 to 3 inches an hour could continue for 24 hours or more ... That puts estimates at more than 2 feet for Washington, a foot to 18 inches for Philadelphia and 8 inches to a foot in New York. ... [Metro] will shut down entirely [at 11 p.m.] and remain closed [until Monday a.m.] ... New York City is just inside the storm's sharp northern edge, which means it is likely to see heavy accumulations ...

"All major airlines have issued waivers for travel over the weekend, allowing passengers to rebook onto earlier or later flights ... FlightAware estimates airlines will cancel at least 2,000 flights Friday and another 3,000 Saturday ... By Sunday afternoon, ... the airlines hope to be back to full schedule. One major event in Washington was still on: the March for Life, an annual anti-abortion rally ... will be held [today], the [43rd] anniversary of ... Roe v. Wade ...

"The U.S. Capitol Police said sledding on Capitol Hill -- which only recently became legal after an act of Congress -- would be welcome for the first time in decades."  https://apne.ws/1lBzRGg

TO TELL YOUR KIDS: "Metro will protect hundreds of railcars by storing them in the tunnels during the storm." Metro press release  https://bit.ly/1WAdO0i

GET SMART FAST ... COVER OF THE ECONOMIST, "Who's afraid of cheap oil?": "Low energy prices ought to be a shot in the arm for the economy. Think again ... Collapsing revenues could bring political instability to fragile parts of the world, such as Venezuela and the Gulf, and fuel rivalries in the Middle East. Cheap oil has a green lining, as it drags down the global price of natural gas, which crowds out coal, a dirtier fuel. But in the long run, cheap fossil fuels reduce the incentive to act on climate change. Most worrying of all is the corrosive new economics of oil. In the past cheap oil has buoyed the world economy because consumers spend much more out of one extra dollar in their pocket than producers do.

"Today that reckoning is less straightforward ... American consumers may have been saving more than was expected. Oil producers are tightening their belts, having spent extravagantly when prices were high. ... As oil collapses against the backdrop of a fragile world economy, it could trigger defaults. ... [T]his oil shock comes as the world economy is still coping with the aftermath of the financial crash. ... [T]he world could yet be laid low by an oil monster on the prowl." See the cover.  https://econ.st/1P9XYaU Read the editorial. https://econ.st/1PsgtDj

--N.Y. Times Quotation of the Day - Andrew T. Levin, former adviser to Fed Chair Janet Yellen, on how the decline of oil prices is causing other problems, too: "There's a feedback between financial markets and the economy. You might think markets are irrational, but even if they are, that spills over into the real economy."1-col. lead of A1, "LOWER OIL PRICES ARE NOT BRINGING ECONOMIC GAINS: A SHIFT FROM THE PAST -- Benefits for Consumers Are Partly Offset by Hit to Industry," by Binyamin Appelbaum https://nyti.ms/1PIzNws

FUTURECAST - S.F. Chronicle A1, at fold, "Apple's land grab a clue to its future," by Wendy Lee (online: "Inside Apple's massive Bay Area expansion"): "The world's most valuable tech company, Apple now owns or leases more than 8 million square feet of office space in San Francisco, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale, Cupertino and San Jose, according to CoStar Realty Information Inc. Nearly 30 percent of the square footage has been snapped up in the past year." Hard paywall  https://sfchron.cl/1Vd9Itz

#OscarsSoWhite -- L.A. Times A1, top of col. 1, "Movie academy might change its rules : Feeling the heat, the board decides to look at ways to bring diversity to Oscar," by Rebecca Keegan and Glenn Whipp: "At a closed-door meeting Tuesday night, the academy's 51-member Board of Governors will discuss expanding the number of films in the best picture category to 10 every year and increasing the number of acting nominees in each category. In addition, the board will consider changing the way the academy invites new members by allowing prospective members to put themselves forward, rather than waiting to be sponsored by current members." https://lat.ms/1JnZRk1

-"2016 Oscar-Nominated Movie Posters With The White Actors Removed," by BuzzFeed's Jamie Jones: "Nothing to see here. Seriously, there's literally almost nothing left to see here."  https://bzfd.it/1NkT19G

PLAYBOOK HIGHLIGHT REEL:

--"Fox News Channel announces criteria for upcoming Republican primary debate [Jan. 26 in Des Moines]": "The primetime debate will feature candidates that place in the top six spots nationally, or place within the top five in Iowa or New Hampshire. The earlier debate will be presented at 7PM/ET and will be moderated by ... Bill Hemmer and Martha MacCallum. The primetime debate will begin at 9PM/ET, moderated by ... Bret Baier ... Megyn Kelly and ... Chris Wallace. ...

"[T]o qualify for the primetime debate, candidates must place in the top six spots nationally in an average of the five most recent national polls, or place within the top five in Iowa or New Hampshire in an average of the five most recent Iowa or New Hampshire polls recognized by FOX News."

--"New Bernie Sanders ad leans on Simon and Garfunkel," by Nick Gass: "The [1-minute] ad features the Simon and Garfunkel staple playing over footage of quotidian scenes of Americana: windmills blowing across a wintry landscape, tugboats sitting on a dock, farmers at work, city dwellers in cafés, a father and daughter walking through what appears to be a suburban neighborhood, a man tossing bales of hay." https://politi.co/1OAQNXN

--DAVID BROCK's response -- AP's Lisa Lerer and Catherine Lucey: "Brock ... criticized a new ad from Sanders, saying it presents a 'bizarre' image of America, focused on white voters. Brock ... said Thursday that a new Sanders ad was a, 'significant slight to the Democratic base. ... From this ad it seems black lives don't matter much to Bernie Sanders.' ... The people featured in the commercial are overwhelmingly white, with only a few individuals possibly representing other racial or ethnic groups."  https://apne.ws/23iaLyl

NICK EVERHART of Content Creative Media responds to a Cruz campaign quote in yesterday's Playbook: "So he refuses to respond to the charges in the ad and instead makes up an attack against a small businessman from Ohio."

SEAN SPICER on RNC.com, "Déjà Vu, Team Clinton Unhinged": "This was supposed to be a different campaign that had learned from the mistakes of 2008. Instead, it seems we're living it all over again." https://bit.ly/1JjTdLJ

MEDIAWATCH -- NYT's new Modern Love podcast finally goes live -- "The debut episodes feature the essays 'Just One Last Swirl Around the Bowl' performed by award-winning actor Jason Alexander, and 'A Craigslist 'Missed Connection' Lure' performed by Broadway actress and musician Lauren Molina."  https://nyti.ms/1noZiwyThe podcast on iTunes  https://apple.co/23gxmeI Release  https://politi.co/1Nmauia

--Adrian Chen , a former Gawker staffer, is joining The New Yorker on Feb. 1 as a staff writer, contributing to both the magazine and newyorker.com. He wrote an excellent piece last November for the magazine about Megan Phelps-Roper, formerly of the Westboro Baptist Church:  https://bit.ly/1NhknUP

--@BuzzFeedAndrew has changed the name of his Twitter account to "new york values."

WASHINGTON, INC. -- "Edelman Launches Integrated Advocacy Offering ": "The Integrated Advocacy offering combines the strength of the world's largest communications marketing firm with deep political and issue campaign experience to build, manage and execute winning advocacy programs for clients who need to shape public opinion, influence public policy, promote and protect their reputation or preserve their license to operate. Edelman Senior Vice President Jon Berrier, a veteran advocacy campaign strategist [and Bush-Cheney '04, Schwarzenegger '06 alum], will lead the new offering."  https://politi.co/1RCAGNj

TRANSITIONS - "Facebook's DC office has brought on Nkechi 'Payton' Iheme to help manage the social media company's public policy goals in the federal government and administration. Payton joins ... after serving as a senior policy advisor in the national security and international affairs division of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. ... Payton also has worked in Congress for Senator Barbara Boxer."

OUT AND ABOUT IN DAVOS -- For the seventh year running, the FT CNBC Davos Nightcap took place last night at the Steigenberger Grandhotel Belvédère. The event, hosted by FT CEO John Ridding and CNBC chairman Mark Hoffman, gathered 350 of the world's most influential business leaders, government officials and economists, who enjoyed 1920s themed cocktails and canapés. 

SPOTTED : Jamie Dimon, Ivan Glasenberg, Professor Lynda Gratton, Ajay Banga, Michael Corbat, Tony Fratto, Richard Edelman, Lionel Barber, Becky Quick, Andrew Ross Sorkin, Gillian Tett, Martin Wolf, Zanny Minton-Beddoes, Lord Mandelson, Carolyn Everson, John Veihmeyer, Sam Kass, Sarah Wynn-Willams, Howard Lutnick, Klaus Kleinfeld, Daniel Loeb, Stephen Schwarzman, Kathleen Lacey, Adi Ignatius, HH Prince Saud Al-Saud, chairman, Felix Salmon, John Studzinski, Gene Sperling, Mark Ein, Jake Siewert.

SPORTS BLINK - WashPost A1, below fold, "The Big Shorts: An era in basketball fashion is coming to an end," by Jorge Castillo: "[T]he hemline is creeping back up. In early November, Cleveland Cavaliers superstar LeBron James declared he would wear skinnier and shorter shorts this season, his 13th in the league, because he wanted to present a more professional appearance. But while he is the highest-profile convert to the shorter short, he isn't the first. The emerging generation of pro basketball players, one that came of age wearing tighter clothes off the floor, beat him to it."  https://wapo.st/1nBXr7k

BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): D.C. attorney Leonard Silverstein

BIRTHDAYS: Josh Earnest, spending the day at home with his wife, Natalie, and their son, Walker, if it's a snow day. The former "West Wing Week" host celebrated yesterday at the office with the comms teams with champagne and cupcakes, and special guests Natalie and Walker (h/ts Antoinette Rangel and Teresa Vilmain) ... Rob Collins, the pride of Syracuse and former NRSC executive director, now at S3 Group ... Kendra Barkoff of SKDKnickerbocker and a Joe Biden alum ... Dave Schnittger, former Boehner deputy chief of staff and the pride of Cincinnati, now a senior policy adviser at Squire Patton Boggs ... Jim Oliphant, senior political correspondent at Reuters, the pride of Columbus and an L.A. Times and Chicago Tribune alum ... former Sen. Birch Bayh (D-Ind.) is 88 ... Politico's Zach Warmbrodt and Jesse Shapiro ... Politico health reporter Brianna Ehley (h/ts Joanne Kenen and Erin Mershon) ...

... Gregg Pitts , consultant at Air Charter Team, the pride of Warren, Ohio and former Bush W.H. Travel Office director ... Ado Machida, president of the International Stability Operations Association and a Bush 43 WH alum ... Democratic fundraiser Chris Lowe, a partner in a NYC private equity firm ... Elizabeth Ashford, senior director of global comms at Activision Blizzard and former chief of staff to California Attorney General and Senate candidate Kamala Harris ... Ken Gross ... Adam Beck, Obama '08 and '12 staffer (now Professor Beck) ... Alexander Wells, compliance officer in the Financial Intelligence Unit of JPMorgan Chase ... Ashley Codianni, director of social publishing at CNN ... Chris Lavery ... WashPost's Julie Zauzmer (h/t Sarah Gadsden) ... Ginny Simmons ... Charlie Meyerson, VP of editorial/development at Rivet Radio ... Kian Hudson, judicial law clerk at Seventh Circuit Court Appeals ...

... Kevin Bohn, CNN producer and editor extraordinaire (h/t Gloria Borger) ... Carla Jacobs, public policy associate at Uber, is 3-0, celebrating in Chicago with a few friends visiting her from D.C., Denver, and Connecticut (h/t fiancé Dan English) ... Buckeye Laura Allen, deputy press secretary at EPA and an Obama '12 alum in OH, is 3-0, celebrating with karaoke to ring in the snOMG2016 storm (h/t Mara Sloan) ... Cara Baldari, senior policy director of family economics and legal counsel at First Focus, is 3-0 (h/t Pam Eichenbaum) ... Seema Ibrahim, staff assistant for Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.) (h/t Ross White) ... Anna Sperling McAlvanah, the pride of Bainbridge Island, Wash., and legislative assistant to Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), is 3-0 (h/t her very proud father Dale Sperling) ...

... Mike Simmons, deputy commissioner of Chicago's Dept. of Planning and Development and a Rahm alum ... Carol McDonald (h/t Teresa Vilmain) ... DoD alum Jason Forrester ... Stephen Belkam ... KCRW senior producer Christian Bordal ... Gretchen Elizabeth, director of comms. and gov't affairs at New Frontier Financials and a Bill Shuster and Fox News alum ... Paul Roales, elected to West Lafayette (Ind.) City Council at the age of 25, and Democratic nominee for the Indiana District 26 State Rep. race in 2010 ... Stephen Belkam ... Steve Rosenthal ... David Sanders ... Bush 43 WH alum Christa (Bailey) Allen ... author Joseph Wambaugh is 79 ... actress Linda Blair is 57 ... actress Diane Lane is 51 ... DJ Jazzy Jeff is 51 ... celebrity chef Guy Fieri is 48 ... actor Kevin Sheridan is 34 ... Sami Gayle ("Blue Bloods") is 20 (h/ts AP)

 

DESSERT -- "With 22.3M digits, new prime number sets record," by AP's Heather Hollingsworth:"Mathematicians at the University of Central Missouri have discovered a record-setting prime number that's so large it would take about 6,000 pages of paper to print. The 22.3-million-digit discovery is the 49th known Mersenne prime number and the fourth discovered at the university."  https://yhoo.it/1P9zqih

 

** A message from Boeing: Since July 15, 1916, we've been making the impossible, possible. In less than a century, Boeing took the world from seaplanes to space planes with decade after decade of innovation, inspiration and wonder. We're proud to enter our centennial anniversary as the world's largest aerospace company -- and we're ready to write history for the next 100 years. Join us this year for events and activities that celebrate the people and moments that inspire us to live by our founder Bill Boeing's philosophy -- "build something better." Come along for a breathtaking journey at  boeing100.com. **

 

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