POLITICO Playbook: 3 MOST LIKELY SCENARIOS for Speaker -- RYAN RECONSIDERS: He’s thinking about it, a huge change
BULLETIN - "Obama Administration Ends Pentagon Program to Train Syrian Rebels," by NYT's Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt, in London: "The Obama administration has ended the Pentagon's $500 million program to train and equip Syrian rebels, ... in an acknowledgment that the beleaguered program had failed to produce any kind of ground combat forces capable of taking on the Islamic State in Syria. Pentagon officials were expected to officially announce the end of the program" today. https://nyti.ms/1Llv85w
HAPPY FRIDAY from Sacramento, where we had dinner last night at The Firehouse in Old Sac, then sneaked across the alley for a nightcap at The Back Door. Yesterday was a totally awesome day to be on a five-hour USAir flight with no wi-fi.
By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; mallen@politico.com) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; dlippman@politico.com)
SUBSCRIBE to Playbook: https://politi.co/1M75UbX
THE 3 MOST LIKELY SCENARIOS for Speaker, in order of likelihood, via a pre-dawn mindmeld with Jake Sherman: 1) Boehner stays ... 2) A consensus INTERIM (caretaker) candidate emerges - perhaps Rep. John Kline (R-Minn.), chair of Education and Workforce, who's retiring ... 3) Paul Ryan -- who IS considering it, which is a big change, but is still resisting - reverses himself on his years of objections and yields to pleas from Romney, Boehner, McCarthy, etc.
--National Review's Eliana Johnson, Rich Lowry and Alexis Levinson: "McCarthy says ... the conference may be ungovernable. 'I don't know ... Sometimes you have to hit rock bottom.'" https://bit.ly/1VIRDZ2
PLEADING FOR PAUL -- Anna Palmer, John Bresnahan and Lauren French: "Soon after McCarthy's [announcement], Ryan released a statement [saying] 'while I am grateful for the encouragement I've received, I will not be a candidate.' ... When asked later in the day whether he would run, ... Ryan said, 'I have no comment.' ... Ryan, 45, said he wasn't interested in being speaker after Boehner's surprise resignation announcement late last month. Ryan cited his desire to spend time with his young family [, and wasn't want the job's brutal fundraising schedule]. ...
"[Other members considering bids include] Georgia['s] Lynn Westmoreland and Texas Reps. Mike Conaway and Bill Flores ... Reps. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) and Daniel Webster (R-Fla.) also are continuing their bids." https://politi.co/1L3nA68
HOW HE WENT DOWN -- "Behind McCarthy's decision to bail: 'They're going to eat you and chew you up,'" by Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer and John Bresnahan: "Publicly, he projected an air of confidence ... But in private, his allies told him the pursuit for power was changing him and he wasn't himself. Some said that even if he won, he couldn't govern. 'We need somebody to get us 247,' McCarthy said in an extensive interview ... referring to the total number of House Republicans. 'And I was never going to be able to get 247.'
"The majority leader's longtime allies - the people he recruited and helped get elected to Congress - told him they were getting hammered back home, and that it would be difficult to back him on the House floor. Other friends said McCarthy's pursuit of the speaker's gavel had become a staggering weight ... and was already starting to change him. Conservatives - namely members of the House Freedom Caucus - were making demands he believed he simply couldn't deliver on. ...
"Even if he could win, he'd be unable to move a must-pass debt ceiling increase. He figured he'd have an equally hard time shepherding through a critical spending deal. The party, as he would say after the announcement that left the entire Capitol dumbfounded, needed a new face. He had missed his moment. A McCarthy aide delivered the news to a shocked Boehner just moments before he made the announcement publicly." https://politi.co/1QdaO6z
GLENN THRUSH "Off Message" column, "Friends don't let friends run for Speaker ... Here are five reasons why only a fool, hero, caretaker ... would want the job Boehner dearly hopes to vacate by month's end, but can't. 1. Ted Cruz is running for president. ... 2. The 'catastrophic' 2013 government shutdown didn't scare the tea party. ... 3. If you have any chance of winning, you're automatically the 'establishment.' ... 4. Paul Ryan doesn't want to be speaker. And he's smarter than you. ... 5. Your best friend will be Nancy Pelosi." https://politi.co/1VIAj14
--DRUDGE banner links to "Newt For Speaker?" - Sean Hannity video: "Maybe this is a time for Newt Gingrich to come back with a flurry of ideas and a new contract." https://bit.ly/1L3caPH
NOT THE ONION - CNN graphic: "TRUMP TAKES CREDIT FOR MCCARTHY'S WITHDRAWAL."
HOW IT'S PLAYING: NYT 2-col lead, "McCarthy Withdraws From Speaker's Race, Putting House in Chaos: California Representative Says He's Not the Man to Unite a Split G.O.P" ... WSJ 5-col. lead, "House GOP Leadership in Turmoil" ... WP 5-col. lead, "A vacuum at the top for House GOP ... Move stuns caucus; contest now wide-open" ... USA Today p.1A, "Chaos on Capitol Hill as McCarthy abruptly withdraws: 'It's best to have a new face,' says majority leader" ... L.A. Times lead, "'We need a new face': McCarthy ends bid to be speaker, blindsiding GOP."
EXCLUSIVE VIDEO: behind-the-scenes clip of former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, appearing Sunday on CBS' "Madam Secretary," about a fictional SecState. AP's Frazier Moore: "'The scene takes place at a ceremony for veterans,' Albright explains during a recent phone conversation. Cast as herself, she commiserates with [Tea Leoni, playing Secretary] McCord about working with the dismissive new man brought in by the president - 'what it's like for the secretary of state to relate to men who think they're superior when they're not.'" https://politi.co/1L3qB6q
DAVID BROOKS, "Clinton's Opportunist Solution!": "[I]t would be interesting to see how government by flip-flop might work. ... In an era of polarization and dysfunction, maybe authenticity, conviction, consistency and principle are the hobgoblins of little minds!" https://nyti.ms/1VIwysu
** Presented by Chevron: Doers in Washington, D.C. help make this nation great -- and all of that doing deserves distinction. Chevron congratulates the Service to America Medal honorees, whose commitment to doing inspires us all. https://tinyurl.com/ngot8ne **
IF YOU'RE IN L.A., please join us today at Politicon, at the L.A. Convention Center. At 2 p.m. PT, Carla Marinucci (who made her debut this week as California Playbook author, and took our bosses by to see Gov. Brown yesterday), and I will interview California Attorney General (and favorite for U.S. Senate) Kamala Harris. RSVPhttps://politi.co/1VD5MXC Subscribe to California Playbook and read the first edition https://politi.co/1FWbI7b
Then at 6:30 p.m. PT, Annie Karni and I will have a "Solving for Y" conversation about millennials with Compton Mayor Aja Brown; Ronnie Cho, MTV's V.P. of Public Affairs; Hunter Schwarz of IJ.com; and Ashley Spillane, president of Rock the Vote. We'd love to see you. RSVP https://politi.co/1WQYOeM
SKDK SOLD - Release: "The Stagwell Group [formed in June by Mark Penn] ... announced its fund, Stagwell Media LLC [a private-equity fund with Steve Ballmer as a core investor], has [100%] acquired SKDKnickerbocker ('SKDK) ... [a] strategic communications and political consulting firm, with offices in Washington, ... New York City, Los Angeles and Albany ... Founded in 1968 by ... Bob Squier, ... later joined by partners Bill Knapp and Anita Dunn ... [then] partners Josh Isay and Jennifer Cunningham in New York and Hilary Rosen in Washington ...
"Over the last few years, prominent political and media professionals ... JB Poersch, Jill Zuckman, Kerri Lyon, Doug Thornell, Bill Burton, Kelley McCormick, Karen Olick, Julie Norton and Jim Mulhall have added prominence and capacity." See the release. https://politi.co/1WQWkwX ... See the note to the SKDK Family.https://politi.co/1htZ7MH
--A source close to SKDK partners said Penn has expertise in this exact type of transaction: He grew Penn Schoen Berland after it was acquired by WPP. "SKDK will get the benefit of partner companies rather than competitor companies," the source said. SKDK will operate independently - Mark isn't interested in getting involved with the client side of Stagwell companies.
SUNDAY SO FAR:
--"Meet the Press": Bernie Sanders
--"Fox News Sunday": Newt ... Dennis Ross
--"Face the Nation": Trump (taping today) ... Carson ... Reps. Mulvaney and Dent ... Panel: Ruth Marcus, Ben Domenech, Ron Fournier, Robert Costa
"60 MINUTES" LISTINGS - "President Obama: Steve Kroft questions the president about Russia's recent incursion in Syria and other topics ... L. Franklin Devine, Michael Karzis and Maria Gavrilovic are the producers. This is a double-length segment. ... Thirty Years on Death Row: In an incredible miscarriage of justice, a prosecutor admits his cowardice and indifference led to the wrongful murder conviction of a man who spent 30 years on death row. Bill Whitaker reports. Ira Rosen is the producer."
AL KAMEN's LAST COLUMN runs today on WashPost A20, The Fed Page, "Our long national Loopiness is over" (online: "Al Kamen Says a Fond Farewell to In The Loop"): "No more Loop contests. No more T-shirts. After some 2,700 columns, this is my last. So it's time to look back a bit and to thank those who made it happen. Thanks first and foremost to Bill Clinton, whose ridiculously chaotic presidential transition after the 1992 election launched this column ... called 'In Transition' ...
"[After the inauguration, the column continued as] 'The New Regime.' After a few months, the regime wasn't so new. So, over my bitter objections (it sounded goofy, too Chicago), it became 'In the Loop.' ... Often [Post colleagues] send [items] ... that ... don't work as full news stories. More often I get them because other reporters want complete deniability, so they can say: 'I simply don't know how he gets this stuff.'" https://wapo.st/1JWvudE
--AL EMAILS US, when asked about junkets of his own: "Been thinking about this for many months. But I don't have any specific plans. Probably going to take some time to relax, travel to Italy to improve my Italian and practice what they call the dolce far niente (the sweet doing nothing), catch up on reading and then maybe teach journalism somewhere. Likely going to spend more time in New York City, helping my wife with her clothing business there for women who've had breast cancer treatments, working the forklift in the warehouse."
--HADAS GOLD wrote when Al's retirement was announced last week: "Kamen began his reporting career at the Rocky Mountain News before joining The Post in 1980. Before starting 'In the Loop,' Kamen covered local and federal courts, the Supreme Court and the State Department. He also assisted Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein in writing 'The Final Days' and Woodward and Scott Armstrong in writing 'The Brethren.'" https://politi.co/1jSAPh4 ... Full text of memo https://bit.ly/1LatikE
--A STORY I TELL JOURNALISM STUDENTS when explaining the bloodlines of Playbook: When I had the honor of being a young Metro reporter at The Washington Post, we got our news from print papers. And if I woke up late (those were the days), I'd always quickly read just two things: Al Kamen -- and Maureen Dowd. I was covered! That way, if I ran into my boss (or Don Graham) in the elevator, I'd know what was up. Hat tip, Al!
THE CONVERSATION -- RYAN LIZZA on NewYorker.com, "New Clue Suggests Biden May Run": DNC staffers "briefed Biden's aides on ... the primary calendar, filing deadlines, ... ballot-access issues, and the ... state-by-state selection process for delegates and super delegates." https://nyr.kr/1LDk7yu
--PLAYBOOK HEARS: NO BIDEN ANNOUNCEMENT before Tuesday debate. Yes, decision was supposed to be this weekend. He keeps putting it off.
--"Clinton donors place side bets on Biden: LGBT-rights activists and mega-donors throw support behind vice president's potential bid," by Annie Karni: "A Denver-based philanthropist who in May was appointed to the board of the pro-Hillary Clinton PAC Correct the Record has stepped down ... and donated to the campaign to draft ... Biden... LGBT rights activist Scott Miller and his husband, mega-donor Tim Gill, each gave $25,000 to Ready for Hillary [and] have now donated $50,000 to the Draft Biden campaign as well." https://politi.co/1WQJChO
TWEET DU JOUR -- @mateagold: "Here's our burn rate calculation so far for Q3: Carson: 64% Rubio: 81% Paul: 186% (!) Clinton: 88.8% Sanders: 44.85."
--"Ted Cruz raises $12 million over the summer," by CNN's MJ Lee and Teddy Schleifer: "His cash flow over the last three months brings his total fundraising so far to $26 million. ... [T]here are signs that other conservative alternatives are gaining steam: Ben Carson, powered by a legion of small-dollar donors, says his campaign raised $20 million in the third quarter. And Donald Trump has pledged to self-finance his campaign." https://cnn.it/1Zkkouk
--NYT A22, "Rubio Campaign Seeks to Use Signs of Momentum to Lure New Donors," by Jeremy Peters in Vegas: "The campaign reported raising about $6 million in the third quarter, much less than it had raised in his first quarter on the campaign trail, though it said that it still had a healthy $11 million on hand. Its senior strategists told donors [in Vegas] that Mr. Rubio's two strong debate performances and his climb in national polls were already helping them recruit new donors. And they set an ambitious fund-raising target for the next quarter of about $15 million." https://nyti.ms/1FW8dh8
--"Nagging him on campaign trail, will Rubio's missed votes hurt him?" by Marc Caputo: "Rubio has missed about 30 percent of his votes ... this year ... Obama ... missed about 25 percent in a comparable period when he ran for president in 2007. But Rubio is being hammered. Obama barely got touched as did the Senate's all-time missed-votes leader for this point in a presidential campaign - Democrat John Kerry of Massachusetts, who missed 62 percent of his votes in the first nine months of 2003." https://politi.co/1WQpqfV
MEDIAWATCH -- ELIZABETH WILLIAMSON to NYT - Per a Times memo: "Williamson will be joining the editorial board to write about all manner of politics. She comes from the Wall Street Journal, where she has been covering the White House, presidential and congressional races, and national politics, all with great depth and flair. Prior to that she was a reporter at The Washington Post, covering Congress and the federal government. She began her journalism career as a freelance writer in Eastern Europe, before joining the Journal as its Warsaw bureau chief in 2000."
--HUNTER WALKER to Yahoo News: "Hunter will be covering ... 2016 ... with a focus on the Hillary Clinton campaign. Prior to joining the Yahoo News team, Hunter was politics editor and senior political correspondent for Business Insider. Other posts have included Talking Points Memo, The New York Observer, and The Daily."
--DAFNA LINZER to NBC NEWS - Deborah Turness and Phil Griffin email the staff: "Linzer will be the Managing Editor of Politics for NBC News and MSNBC ... She joined MSNBC in 2013 as Managing Editor of MSNBC digital ... [S]he was ... at ProPublica ... foreign correspondent for [AP] ... in Jerusalem and the United Nations."
VALLEY TALK -- "Netflix ... Raised The Price Of Its Most Popular Plan," by TechCrunch's Matt Burns: "now ... $9.99. Existing customers will have a grace period, but the price is effectively immediately for new subscribers ... Netflix quietly raised prices for Europeans in late August." https://tcrn.ch/1Llj6cl
KEMP BOOK PARTY: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce hosted a reception honoring Morton Kondracke and Fred Barnes for their new book, "Jack Kemp: The Bleeding-Heart Conservative Who Changed America." Two Chamber insiders -- Scott Reed and JT Taylor, who worked closely with Kemp over the years -- gathered a crowd of more than 150 political influencers, business leaders, and members of the Kemp family: Joanne, Jimmy, and Jennifer Andrews. Chamber President and CEO Tom Donohue welcomed guests. Suzanne Clark, the Chamber's executive vice president, moderated a panel. $16.47 on Amazon https://amzn.to/1NtwY6F
--SPOTTED at the reception: former congressmen Bob Walker, Vin Weber, and Tom Reynolds; former senator Bill Brock; Raul Fernandez; Bruce Bartlett; Wayne Berman; Charlie Black; Matt Rhoades; Blair Latoff and Josh Holmes; Marc Short; Bob Woodson; David Smick; Stan Anderson; Sam Geduldig; Molly Ball.
OUT AND ABOUT - SPOTTED at Stanton & Greene, for RNC's Madeleine Westerhout 25th birthday: Sean Spicer, RNC's Liam O'Rourke, Julia Griswold, Ramsey Ratcliffe, Anne Marie Hoffman, Vera Minter, Brian Plaut, Natalie Strom, Carrie Bock, RNC Finance Director Cara Mason, NRCC's John Reedy, Katie Martin.
BIRTHDAYS: DNC CEO Amy Dacey, the pride of Auburn, N.Y. (h/ts Danielle Jones and Jon Haber) ... Shailagh Murray! (h/t Neil) ... Tom Perriello (h/t Manatos) ... C-SPAN founder Brian Lamb is 74 (cable tip: Howard Mortman) ... Trent Lott is 74 (h/t Lott allies) ... British Prime Minister David Cameron is 49 ... Vivek Kundra, the nation's first Federal CIO (h/t Tom Gavin) ... The New Republic's Gabriel Snyder ... WashPost's Aaron Blake ... Mashable's Juana Summers (h/t Ginger Gibson) ... Chris Kofinis (we jumped the gun yesterday) ... Rachel Pearson ... Pon Hunter ... Tom Petrillo ... Virginia Hume ... Politico's Michael Marcialis and Valerie Berg ... Lenny Speiller ... Monica Hinojos ... Dr. Russell Moore (h/ts Jonathan Collegio, Joe Moore, Deckard, Jon Ward) ... Clare Doody of West Wing Writers ... Annastacia Langthorn ... Michael Tubman of the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions ... David Cohen, Obama WH alum and now an NYU Law School student ... Zack Hale ...
... Bo Obama ... Leah Fabel Young, associate editor of One Day, TFA's alumni magazine and an Examiner alum ... Bubba Sanderson ... Nicole Schlinger ... Vivian Myrtetus ... Becki Donatelli ... Michael Smith ... Dana Wolfe ... actor Fyvush Finkel is 93 ... retired MLB All-Star Joe Pepitone is 75 ... Jackson Browne is 67 ... Scott Bakula is 61 ... movie director Steve McQueen ("12 Years a Slave") is 46 ... World Golf Hall of Famer Annika Sorenstam is 45 ... Sean Lennon is 40 ... Randy Spelling is 37 ... Lecrae is 36 (h/t Jon Ward) ... Spencer Grammer is 32 ... Scotty McCreery ("American Idol") is 22 (h/ts AP)
** Presented by Chevron: Doers in Washington, D.C., help make this nation great --and all of that doing deserves distinction. Chevron congratulates the Service to America Medal honorees, whose commitment to doing inspires us all. https://tinyurl.com/onpdsz6 **
To view online:
https://www.politico.com/playbook/2015/10/politio-playbook-october-9-republicans-speaker-210634
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