Politicians making promises they can′t keep…yet again?
Paul Thompson
Public Affairs expert. I also write about Leadership, Productivity, Self-Discipline and Mindset | Personal Growth & Leadership Coach | Occasionally write about UK politics.
Stephen Bush critiques how Labour and the Conservatives are storing up trouble for themselves in making promises they won’t be able to keep in ‘How British politics lost touch with reality.’
This includes Labour’s 2030 clean energy pledge criticized for lacking detail and constrained by self-imposed budget limits. Or the Conservative′s promise to get rid of "low value" university courses even though these courses are financially crucial for universities. ?He says this is “…part of a wider British disease of politics detached from policy, of arguments about politics divorced from questions about whether you can even implement the proposals at the end of the day.”
Would things be different if there were another voice amongst political parties highlighting this to voters? Maybe, but Bush flags how the UK’s electoral system shields established parties from accountability, even when they make impractical promises and take a “holiday from reality at the same time.”
The problem, he argues, is that both the right and left parties are failing (deliberately?) to be up front about the current limitations faced by the UK due to global changes and financial constraints, especially amidst challenges like new international conflicts, the need for decarbonisation and an ageing population.
Do election campaigns barely move the needle on what voters think?
?We all must suffer another few weeks of the election campaign – but will it make any difference to the final result? Phil Collins in ‘Lukewarm Landslide’ highlights a fascinating graph (above) that suggests – apart from a couple of exceptions - ?how the parties are perceived in the eyes of voters doesn′t change much during a campaign.
Something Sir John Curtice also confirmed in his pithy round-up of polls so far. So, even if there are lots of undecided voters still to decide which way they′ll jump it isn′t the campaign that will make the big difference.
The battle for the centre-right after the election
John Joxley′s great article on how the Conservatives should be preparing for defeat and preparing for the future is a good place to start to begin getting your head around how the centre-right could splinter after the election (if Labour win).
In ‘Fighting for 2029’ he points out that even though the party is facing a defeat on the scale of the 1997 election, the situation is “far worse than when Blair came to power. They have boxed themselves into a demographic dead end”. Apparently, approximately 25,000 Tory voters die each month and aren’t being replaced.
Personal and economic scandals under Johnson and Truss haven′t done the party any favours and with the demographic trend may have made it harder for them to recover.
In addition, with figures like Matt Goodwin and Dominic Cummings floating starting new parties on the centre right after the election this could fragment the Conservative′s base. And with Nigel Farage running as an MP, where might he and Richard Tice try to take Reform after the election? (see Matthew Goodwin′s article on what he thinks Farage is trying to achieve).
?Joxley also points out the dangers for the party of being reduced to a rump and the negative impact this has in terms of attracting new supporters and new donations. Not many people want to be associated with a party that looks like it can′t win (although the FT reported that a trio of Conservative donors who won′t fund Sunak′s election campaign would consider funding? leadership bids of Priti Patel, Suella Braverman or Robert Jenrick). Plus, being a rump party makes it more vulnerable to new challenger parties on the right who may find it easier to get new and fresh support.
The real reason economic levelling up is failing in England (and how to change it)
?Political levelling up (i.e. devolution) has seen good progress but economic levelling up hasn’t. In ‘The North in Numbers’ on The Northern Agenda there′s insightful chats with several local leaders and experts about the scale of the challenge for whoever wins the election to make faster progress on levelling up in England (including Professor Sir Michael Marmot, director of The Institute of Health Equity).?
Problems discussed include lack of serious funding to meet the scale of the ambition, the politicisation of levelling-up funds, lack of political will/long-term thinking from some central government departments to give more control to local leaders and to learn from other countries, and optimism bias about projects being ‘shovel-ready.’
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Worth listening to…
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How much do we really know about the kind of prime minister Keir Starmer might be, and does the Diane Abbot saga demonstrate a flaw in his character as a leader?? Steve Richards, Tim Montgomerie, Miranda Green and Iain Martin discuss this in ‘How Good is Keir Starmer.’ Also discussed is how Starmer manages the Labour party, his successes, strengths and possible failures as a prime minister (in the future).
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Worth reading…
The election campaign has been notable so far for very little conversation about the UK′s future relationship with the EU (even though the Trade and Co-operation Agreement is up for review in 2026). Philip Stephens charts the failures of Brexit to date and notes how even if Labour wanted to rejoin Brussels is not “about to allow a Starmer administration to “cherry-pick” the areas of collaboration it wants in any new association agreement.”
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Camilla Cavendish on how age has become a defining feature in the UK election campaign, but why the assumptions Labour and The Conservatives have about the views of old vs young voters could be mistaken.
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Peter Foster considers what Labour needs to do in reforming Whitehall if it is going to deliver it′s 5 missions. Whilst changing the structure of government is important for this, Foster thinks this is a “second order” issue and the first-order issue is early “big, brave decisions (on fiscal rules, public investment, planning reform, Europe and trade) early on.
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Morgan McSweeney, who is Keir Starmer’s election campaign director and credited with reforming Labour following its 2019 election defeat, was profiled in The Sunday Times. The article touches on his background, how his politics developed and his relationship with the Labour leader.?In case you′re interested in Starmer′s team also check out this profile of his chief of staff, Sue Gray.
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With only 42% of voters decided how they will vote, and almost half of voters not knowing who would make the best prime minister, could the election result be a lot closer than people expect? This is a key finding in polling carried out by Lord Ashcroft:
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?Foreign policy isn′t the number one issue in the election campaign but as I wrote last week may end up dominating the early days of a Labour government. Politico looks at how the UK and US relationship might evolve and how Labour has been preparing so far.
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