Political Storm

Good morning.?We pause today to reflect on the horrific terrorist attacks against Israel one year ago and the taking of innocent hostages. We stand in solidarity with all those affected by the violence and loss and offer our sincere hope that the coming year brings strength, healing, and a renewed commitment for lasting peace.

Closer to home, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Senator J.D. Vance faced off last week in a spirited, but at times, substantive debate in New York City.

Walz and Vance both spent much of the 90-minute debate defending the records of their respective running mates while also engaging in the sort of policy-heavy discussions that have become increasingly rare in modern political debates. On healthcare, Vance was pushed to elaborate on Trump’s comments about having the “concepts of a plan” to replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA), to which he suggested “allowing states to experiment a little bit on how to cover both the chronically ill but the non-chronically ill.” Walz, who was in Congress when the ACA was passed, took issue with that suggestion saying, “What they’re saying is, if you’re healthy, why should you be paying more? So what they’re going to do is let insurance companies pick who they insure.” Walz also pushed back on Vance’s claim that Trump worked to “salvage” the ACA, pointing out that the Trump administration tried, and failed, to overturn the ACA throughout Trump’s first two years in office while Republicans controlled all three branches of government. Walz also used his platform to draw a contrast between Democrats and Republicans on reproductive healthcare, pointing out how Trump “brags about how great it was that he put the judges in and overturned Roe v. Wade.” Walz shared the stories of multiple women who had serious medical complications, and some who even died, due to their state’s restrictive abortion laws that were passed in the wake of the repeal of Roe v. Wade.?

Vance often pivoted to immigration and the economy—two issues where Trump has maintained a steady lead over his Democratic counterparts. Vance brushed off a question about Trump’s mass deportation policy, tactfully flipping the question into an economic argument saying, “You make it harder for illegal aliens to undercut the wages of American workers. A lot of people will go home if they can't work for less than minimum wage in our own country. And by the way, that will be really good for our workers who just want to earn a fair wage for doing a good day's work.” Similarly, he suggested that removing millions of migrants will help alleviate the housing shortage before adding that he supports Trump’s proposal to utilize dormant federal land to build more housing. On the immigration issue, arguably the biggest vulnerability for Democrats, Walz took a page from Kamala Harris’s playbook. Walz repeatedly reiterated his support for the stalled bipartisan border bill, accusing Donald Trump and his allies in Congress of intentionally torpedoing the bill so as to campaign on the issue, while at the same time demonizing immigrants in communities like Springfield, Ohio. ?

Vance, who was has the lowest approval rating of a VP candidate in modern history, was successful in softening his edges in front of a national audience. That strategy was on full display early in the debate, when Vance opened his response to the first question about Israel preemptively striking Iran with, “I was raised in a working class family.” Vance has relentlessly attacked Walz’s military service and accused him of lying about using fertility treatments to start a family—neither of which he brought up in last week’s debate. Walz also missed a chance to confront Vance about his “childless cat lady” quip and other outdated comments regarding women.?

Absent a glaring mistake, which neither candidate made last week, VP debates rarely move the needle in presidential elections. Nonetheless, the debate was the largest television audience either candidate had appeared in front of and the first chance that many voters had to hear from the two men on a national stage. In conclusion, Walz landed a few punches and Vance’s inability to say who won in 2020 will haunt him, but overall, Vance won on points and did himself the most good.

The bigger impact on the race is more likely to come from Mother Nature in the form of Hurricane Helene.?

The timing and the location of some of the worst damage—Georgia and North Carolina—means the recovery and response will play out in the glare of the presidential campaign.

There is plenty of precedent.?In 1992, Hurricane Andrew landed in Florida in the final days of the presidential election and FEMA’s chaotic relief efforts were politically damaging to then-President George H.W. Bush who went from winning Florida by a 22-point landslide in 1988 to a narrow, 2-point victory in the aftermath of Andrew.

From August 2004, Florida was pummeled by four successive hurricanes that delivered serious damage to the then-key swing state. Less than two days after Hurricane Charley first made landfall, President George W. Bush was on the ground touring hard-hit neighborhoods, the first of a several visits he made to review storm-related damage. With FEMA’s performance winning plaudits, Bush won the state that year by 381,000 votes—a dramatic improvement over 2000, when he won Florida by a mere 537 votes. That year, Florida’s 27 electoral votes were the margin of victory. Of course, the next year the Bush administration’s failed response to Hurricane Katrina permanently damaged his presidency.

As recently as 2012, another hurricane upended the election when Hurricane Sandy tore through the Eastern Seaboard about a week before Election Day. Many believe that storm halted Mitt Romney’s late momentum while also highlighting President Barack Obama’s leadership and helping his reelection.?In fact, exit polling found that 15 percent of voters?identified hurricane response as the most important factor in their vote and Obama won a majority of those voters.

Which bring us to today.?Former President Donald Trump has a flare for drama and an intrinsic advantage in the optics of projecting leadership.?Before the storm even hit he was framing the narrative and he beat President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris to the scene, visiting hard-hit Valdosta, Georgia, days before they did.

Trump seized the narrative, flooding the zone with lies and unsubstantiated claims including that Republican Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp had been unable to reach Biden although Kemp later confirmed that he had already been in contact with Biden. Trump also claimed to be receiving reports that the federal government and North Carolina Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper were “going out of their way to not help people in Republican areas.” Republican governors in several of those states denied this claim.

Trump also?claimed?that Biden and Harris “sacrificed Americans to an Open Border, and now, they have left Americans to drown in North Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, and elsewhere in the South.” Other Republicans have picked up on Trump’s cues and amplified his message.

The result? The Biden administration has been on the defensive ever since, forced to prove a negative by publicizing FEMA’s extensive efforts, correcting the record about Biden’s communications with governors and rolling out various Cabinet members to underscore the breadth of the government’s response. Biden was forced to travel to four states in two days to inspect the damage. Harris cut short a campaign trip to Nevada to return home for an event at FEMA headquarters, followed by a visit to Georgia Wednesday.

This issue is not going away. After Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina are the biggest electoral prizes on the swing state map. In those two states, voter perceptions about presidential leadership in a moment of crisis and profound loss could have a real impact on who wins.

In a race this close, everything matters.?Remember, the margin in Georgia was less than 12,000 votes in 2020.

In addition to being deadly, Helene was severe. In western North Carolina, where the scope of the devastation and the loss of life has been astonishing, close to one million votes were cast in 2020 in the?25 counties designated for FEMA assistance. In Georgia, close to 650,000 votes were cast in the more than 40 FEMA-designated counties there.

While much of the impact was in Trump country—including many of the rural counties he counts on in state after state to offset his metropolitan losses—there are hurricane-affected areas that Democrats rely on as well. Asheville’s Buncombe County provides modest Democratic margins in North Carolina that have been key to Democratic victories in the state. Likewise, in Georgia, the Democratic margins provided by Savannah’s Chatham County and Augusta’s Richmond County are an important counterweight to the sea of red votes cast in South Georgia.

In the hardest hit counties of North Carolina where the recovery will be measured in years, not weeks and months, there are other basic questions about polling places, election infrastructure and mail service that need to be resolved over the next month.?It also makes any polling in those states even less reliable.

Of course, the storm has created other political problems as well:

• The senators from North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia?called on Congress?to pass emergency funding—even if it means reconvening before Election Day. The damage is in the tens of billions of dollars. They are also receiving support from a colleague seeking to lead Senate Republicans next year: Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas)?wrote,?“It is clear the devastation will require Congress to act promptly and significantly.”

• In a separate bipartisan plea, 33 lawmakers from both chambers called for?special relief for the agricultural sector, which suffered “catastrophic losses” in the storm: “To prevent deep and lasting economic damage to the agricultural industry in the southeastern United States, it is imperative that Congress make appropriations as soon as possible upon the completion of damage assessments to fully fund unmet agricultural disaster relief needs in our states and across the nation.”

• They are not alone. Even before Helene struck, lawmakers elsewhere were pressing for additional funding to cover other disasters. Senators from Hawaii, Louisiana, Vermont, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Alaska called on Senate leaders and appropriators to boost funding for FEMA’s Disaster Relief Fund and the Community Development Block Grant Disaster Recovery program.?

• The stopgap spending bill passed last week extends FEMA’s current funding level of $20 billion, which leaders say is enough in the short term. And figuring out just how much aid will be needed could take weeks still. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told Fox that it will take “30 days or more” to assess the damage adding, “Congress will have to address it.” Significantly, he did not commit to bringing members back early.

Buckle up.

Including today, there are just 30 days until Election Day. You can check your voter registration and find your polling place here.?

Meanwhile, in New York City, Mayor Eric Adams continues to dealing with the fallout from his recent federal indictment on bribery, campaign finance, and conspiracy charges. Adams has continued to maintain his innocence and has resisted calls to resign, telling reporters, “I’ve done nothing wrong. Time will prove that. And people will look back on this moment and say, ‘We’re glad we gave this man the opportunity to do the work he’s doing.’”

New York Governor Kathy Hochul has the power to remove Adams, but has yet to call on him to resign. Instead, Hochul reportedly?told Adams he should “clean house” and dismiss staffers who have been linked to corruption investigations as a way to regain the trust of New Yorkers. While Hochul did not elaborate on her thoughts or plans regarding Adams, she offered, "I’ve talked to the mayor about what my expectations are, and I don’t give out details of private conversations.”?

One of those scandal-ridden aides, Tim Pearson, submitted his resignation to Adams last Monday, saying he has “decided to focus on family, self-care, and new endeavors.” Pearson was one of Adams’ closest confidants and maintained a broad portfolio that included everything from public safety to migrant issues. Pearson, the fifth senior member of the administration to resign in the last three weeks, had his phones seized by federal investigators in early September and is the subject of at least two separate investigations by the New York City Department of Investigation.?

Furthermore, First Deputy Mayor Sheena Wright is also leaving according to multiple sources. The news comes barely a month after federal agents?raided?her home and seized her electronic devices amid the investigations.

Adams and his legal team, led by celebrity attorney Alex Spiro who has represented the likes of Jay Z and Elon Musk, has gone on the offensive, accusing the U.S. Attorney’s Office of leaking details of the indictment before formally charging the mayor. In a separate filing, Adams has asked the court to throw out the federal bribery charge, arguing that the travel upgrades didn’t rise to the threshold to constitute bribery. Spiro offered, “Gratuities are not federal crimes. Courtesies to politicians are not federal crimes. That's just what happens.”?

In Albany, Budget Director Blake Washington sent a letter to all state agencies?last week advising them to keep their upcoming budget requests at or below this year’s funding level. The letter states, “While there is a growing consensus that the national economy is proceeding toward a ‘soft landing,’ New York’s status as the world’s financial capital makes it susceptible to a multitude of economic, geopolitical, and market risks. A thorough consideration of state commitments will allow the state to be better positioned to meet planned out-year spending growth, and in the event of an economic downturn, will lessen the need for potential reduction in critical services at a time when New Yorkers would otherwise be in most need of our support. To accomplish this, agency budget requests for State Fiscal Year SFY 2026 should not exceed the total SFY 2025 Enacted Budget agency funding levels, excluding one-time investments.”?

Next year’s budget, which is expected to face a $5 billion spending gap, will have to address a number of unresolved fiscal issues. Lawmakers will have to agree on a funding solution for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA), which is facing a $15 billion shortfall after Hochul’s decision to delay the implementation of congestion pricing in parts of New York City, in addition to a $33 billion ask for the next fiscal plan. Hochul will likely again look to two of state state’s largest expenses—Medicaid and school Foundation Aid—as areas to potentially cut costs. She has tasked the Department of Health’s Commission on the Future of Health Care with developing solutions to slow down New York’s exploding Medicaid costs, and has employed the Rockefeller Institute for a study to explore changes to the Foundation Aid formula after her proposal in last year’s budget was met with pushback from the Legislature.?

Agency budget requests are due by October 17th, with Hochul presenting her budget proposal to the Legislature in January.?

We will be focusing on this in more detail over the next few months.

Congratulations are in order for our colleague Michael Cinquanti, who left on October 1 to start his own firm. He was a valued part of the OD&A team for four years and will be missed. We have no doubt he will continue to provide excellent counsel, advice, and lobbying services to his clients and we look forward to collaborating with him in the future.

Best of luck, Mike!

Finally…

What’s old is new again…especially when it comes to British bathrooms.?

[Read on.]

-Jack O’Donnell