Political Shifts: Biden, Le Pen, UK Labour, and Iran's Presidential Run-off

*Following recent elections, this note aims to quickly update readers on key developments.

Biden's Challenges Raise Concerns for Democratic Leadership

Following the recent Presidential debate, a CNN poll reveals that 67% of viewers favored Trump over Biden, raising serious questions about Biden’s viability as the Democratic candidate. This is further coupled with growing dissent within the Democratic donor base signaling a potential shift, as key figures like Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, and VP Kamala Harris are considered as alternatives. Given the upcoming Democratic Convention on August 19-22, a decision on Biden’s replacement would ideally be made beforehand.

Le Pen’s National Rally Dominates French Elections

Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (NR) is poised for a significant victory in the first round of the French elections, with over two-thirds of voters supporting the far-right party. This election saw a record turnout of nearly 60%, a stark increase from 40% in 2022. Initial projections show Macron’s centrist Together bloc with 20.3% of the vote. A second round on July 7th will determine the final candidates for those who received less than 25% of the vote. NR's campaign focused on cost of living, wages, anti-immigration, and energy costs, resonating with a broad audience despite some public opposition.

UK Labour Party Leads Ahead of July 4th Elections

The UK elections set for July 4th indicate a strong lead for Labour over the Conservatives. Polling suggests Labour is on course for a sweeping victory due to widespread dissatisfaction with the Conservatives' handling of the economy, Brexit, social welfare programs, and NHS funding.

Iran’s Presidential Run-off: Reformist vs. Conservative

Iran's presidential run-off on July 5th will see reformist Masoud Pezeshkian and conservative Saeed Jalili vying for leadership after neither secured the necessary votes in the initial round. With a turnout of only 40%, the lowest since 1979, the results could significantly impact Iran’s foreign relations. Pezeshkian’s victory might open up dialogue with the West, while Jalili’s win could pose challenges given his ultraconservative stance and close ties with Khamenei.