POLITICAL ROUNDUP - PROTESTS, A BATTLE OVER BUDGET AND LOOMING ELECTIONS (AGAIN)
Monfort Advisory brief / August 2020
Last Saturday evening (August 1), about 10,000 people (and some speculate that possibly double that number) gathered outside Prime Minister Netanyahu’s residence in Balfour St. in Jerusalem. At the same time, thousands more gathered in Tel Aviv, in Caesarea outside Neatnyahu’s private residence and in hundreds of bridges and intersections all across the country. This was the largest protest since the beginning of the demonstrations, about a month ago. Every evening, thousands travel to Jerusalem to gather in Balfour St., with even more arriving on Saturdays, to protest the situation. If the “situation†sounds vague, this is because this protest movement has no clear call, clear leaders or clear agenda. It is composed of hundreds of groups, all protesting what they feel most passionately about - corruption, the economic crisis, for protecting democracy, for the mismanagement of the second wave of Corona, the occupation, etc. The one commonality of all protesters is a desire to see Netanyahu replaced.
This is a protest movement that has not been seen in Israel before, not only for its size (it is still smaller than the 2011 social justice protests), but for its persistence, noise and diversity - in messages and in types of people. With a determination that seems unwavering and even growing, with numbers increasing weekly and in the absence of identifiable leaders that can be smeared or coddled, these protests indeed seem to shake Netanayhu and test his composure. The evidence is his frequent reference to this movement and attempts to discredit it, by calling it violent (it is not), saying protesters are calling for violence against him and his family (they are not) and saying it is much smaller than it is said to be by the collaborating media (if anything, media reports are downplaying the size of protests). Political protesters all seem unified in estimating that Netanyahu is more disturbed and concerned by these protests than he lets on. The anti-Netanyahu voice seems to be growing and unifying unlikely partners, while the pro-Netanyahu camp has failed to show up yet to voice support.
With Netanyahu seeing growing dissent, with himself as the main target, he is scrambling to find his way out of this bind. The ruthless second wave of Corona and the unfolding economic crisis are all blamed on him, and with his trial starting in January (Netanayhu will have to attend court three days a week), pressure is mounting on him to resign. His possible way out, which has become more possible in recent weeks, is to go to yet another election (fourth, if you’re keeping count). His pretense: a dispute over budget. While the unity agreement with Blue and White says the budget will be for 2 years, Netanyahu is pushing for a budget till the end of 2020, meaning for 3 months. This will give him an exit ramp in three months to fail to pass another budget, in which case the Knesset is dissolved, and the country goes to election. With this issue unresolved, and an August 25 deadline to pass a budget, any budget, there is growing speculation that Netanayhu is pushing hard for election in November, which will leave him as interim Prime Minister for the foreseeable months (including the beginning of the evidence stage of his trial).
It is not decided yet, especially given it is a risk to go to election against the backdrop of mass protests, economic crisis and Corona. The prominent theory in political circles is that the next couple of days will revolve around looking at election polls, after which Netanayahu will make his decision - elections in November or not.