Political Disorder Created by GOP Base, Not Trump

You know you can't trust this president to do what's right for this country. You can trust he will do what's right for Donald Trump." "He has betrayed our national security and will do so again. He has compromised our elections, and he will do so again." "If you have found him guilty and you do not remove him from office, he will continue trying to cheat in the election until he succeeds." "What are the odds, if left in office, that he will continue trying to cheat? I will tell you: 100 percent. Not five, not ten, or even fifty, but 100 percent."

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Adam Schiff

First Impeachment Manager of Donald Trump.

Donald Trump's emergence as a presidential candidate in 2016 is more of a symptom of existing problems within the Republican base rather than the cause. The rise of Trump is a part of long-term trends within the GOP, such as the increasing influence of conservative media, the Tea Party movement, and the party's rightward shift on many issues. A broader decline in trust in institutions and expert authority created a fertile ground for Trump's anti-establishment message to take root. Furthermore, the frustration with the Obama administration and the desire for a starkly different leadership style and policy direction also contributed to Trump's appeal.

The Republican base has harbored grievances over many issues, particularly the perceived loss of traditional values, for years. These include the waning majority of the U.S. white population, rapid social changes, and demographic shifts that made these voters feel that their traditional way of life was under threat. Economic dislocation, particularly in the Rust Belt and rural areas, along with social changes, have driven many voters toward a more populist and nationalist stance, seeking leaders who promise to address their concerns directly.

Increasing political polarization has pushed the Republican party toward its ideological extremes, as a significant portion of the Republican base felt betrayed by establishment politicians who they believed had failed to deliver on promises. Conservative media, particularly outlets like Fox News, talk radio stations, and online platforms, have played a significant role in shaping the views and priorities of the Republican base. These media sources often amplify the same themes that Trump capitalized on. These sentiments and many more were present before Trump emerged as a political figure.

The Underlying Issues

For Republicans, this meant a shift towards more hardline positions that Trump was able to tap into effectively. Trump's candidacy and subsequent presidency tapped into and amplified the rage and frustration that many Republican voters were already feeling. Trump played a pivotal role in galvanizing and mobilizing these existing sentiments; the moment we are in is primarily a result of broader trends and forces within the Republican base that predated his rise to political prominence. His often inflammatory and divisive rhetoric further polarized the political landscape. Trump positioned himself as an outsider willing to challenge the status quo and "drain the swamp."

Trump's rhetoric and populist messaging, which included attacking elites, the media, and the political establishment, resonated with voters who felt marginalized and ignored by traditional politicians as he promised to return to "traditional" values and addressed concerns about immigration and multiculturalism.

The Republican Party's leadership and strategy over the years, including opposition to Democratic initiatives and embracing specific wedge issues, have contributed to its current state and base. The party's leadership has played a significant role in shaping the current state of the party and its base by capitalizing on and amplifying the grievances and frustrations of its voters rather than addressing or redirecting them away from cultural and identity issues – a sense of us-versus-them, deepening political and social divides, thereby ensuring voter loyalty and turnout.

As the Senate Majority Leader during Donald Trump's first impeachment trial, Mitch McConnell played a pivotal role in the proceedings and ultimately in the trial's outcome. The decision not to convict Trump and remove him from office had significant implications. The House of Representatives impeached Trump in December 2019 for abusing his power and obstructing Congress. The charges stemmed from allegations that Trump solicited foreign intrusion in the 2020 U.S. presidential election by urging Ukraine to investigate his political rival, Joe Biden.

McConnell had substantial control over the trial's procedures, including decisions about witnesses and evidence. The trial was relatively quick, and there was an absence of new testimonies from witnesses, which was advantageous to Trump. Ultimately, Trump was acquitted on both charges, with only one Republican senator, Mitt Romney, voting to convict on one charge. McConnell voted to acquit, later stating that the voters should decide Trump's fate in the upcoming election.

Consequences of the Acquittal

The acquittal arguably emboldened Trump, empowering and reinforcing his sense of invulnerability and deepening his influence over the Republican Party. McConnell's choice during the first impeachment set the stage for future events, including the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot and Trump's second impeachment. Handling the first impeachment was a factor in the escalating tensions and actions that led to the second impeachment.

After the Capitol riot and Trump's second impeachment, McConnell criticized Trump's actions, stating that the former president was "practically and morally responsible" for provoking the violence. Despite this, McConnell voted to acquit Trump in the second impeachment trial as well, citing constitutional concerns about impeaching a former president. McConnell's decisions during both impeachments have impacted his legacy and the Republican Party. His strategic calculations reflect his priority of party loyalty and political survival over constitutional duties.

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In his closing argument during the first impeachment trial of Donald Trump, Representative Adam Schiff, who served as the lead impeachment manager, delivered a poignant warning about the potential consequences of acquitting Trump. Schiff's warning was clear and direct:

"You know you can't trust this president to do what's right for this country. You can trust he will do what's right for Donald Trump." "He has betrayed our national security and will do so again. He has compromised our elections, and he will do so again." "If you have found him guilty and you do not remove him from office, he will continue trying to cheat in the election until he succeeds." "What are the odds, if left in office, that he will continue trying to cheat? I will tell you: 100 percent. Not five, not ten, or even fifty, but 100 percent."

Since the two impeachments, Donald Trump has been indicted in multiple jurisdictions and convicted in several cases, marking a historic first for any former U.S. president. Trump's presidency has debased the office through his norm-breaking conduct, legal and ethical controversies, lawlessness, undermining of democratic institutions, and contributions to national and international division. ?

Adam Schiff's warnings during the first impeachment trial of Donald Trump seemed prophetic, particularly in light of subsequent events. After his acquittal in the first impeachment trial, Trump continued in his behavior, abusing his power as president. Trump pressured state officials, the Department of Justice, and others to support his unfounded claims of election fraud. Trump's persistent claims of widespread voter fraud, despite a lack of evidence, culminated in the storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. The resulting insurrection was an attempt to disrupt the certification of the electoral college results, a direct challenge to the democratic process that Schiff had warned about.

Mitch McConnell had the opportunity to end Trump's presidency during the first impeachment trial but chose not to. Political considerations and the dynamics within the Republican Party influenced his decision. The choice has had profound and lasting effects on the political landscape, contributing to Trump's continued influence and the polarization of American politics.

So let the GOP self-destruct, shed old skin's attire, and rise anew: A period of self-destruction and transformation might be necessary for it to shed outdated practices and emerge stronger. In the meantime, maintaining vigilance, promoting bipartisanship, supporting reform efforts, engaging in civic education, and fostering dialogue are crucial for ensuring a healthy and functioning democracy.

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Nicholas A. Owoyemi

President & CEO (Author)

Moderate Voices of America

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