Political Chess: Insights from Spain's Constituent Parliament Meeting and the Road Ahead

In the constituent meeting of the Spanish Parliament, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez achieved a partial victory. During the vote for the new President of the Parliament, several Basque and Catalan separatist parties agreed to support the Socialist candidate, Francina Armengol, in exchange for political concessions. These concessions include the recognition of the Basque, Catalan, and Galician languages in the Spanish parliament, as well as the establishment of two parliamentary inquiry committees, which will focus on the use of espionage software on opposition politicians and the investigation of the Islamic attack that occurred six years ago in Barcelona.

Yet, the support for Armengol's election does not automatically ensure that Sánchez can rely on the votes of all separatist parties for the confidence vote of the future government. Carles Puigdemont i Casamajó , the leader of the Catalan Junts per Catalunya party (JxCat) who currently resides in Belgian exile, is demanding a general amnesty for those currently facing prosecution for their involvement in organising the independence referendum on October 1st, 2017. Moreover, the political cost for a confidence and supply agreement could also involve the prospect of holding an independence referendum, akin to the one granted to Scotland by Westminster in 2014. So far, Sánchez has consistently rejected these demands, citing its incompatibility with the Spanish constitution and its unpopularity among the general population, outside of Catalonia. On the question on constitutionality, Sánchez recently indicated that he might be ready to leave these legal questions up the constitutional?court, instead of deciding at a political level.

Given this context, the likelihood of early elections in the coming months (either towards the end of 2023 or at the start of 2024) remains high. This is because the Catalan independence referendum could be perceived as an overly substantial challenge for the center-left alliance to overcome. However, without such concessions, it will be exceedingly difficult to convince separatist parties to actively support a future government led by Sánchez throughout an entire legislative term in the parliament. National opinion polls conducted after the July 2023 elections currently indicate that the socialists and conservatives, along with their respective coalition partners, could possibly secure the necessary additional parliamentary seats to govern without the need for onerous and costly confidence and supply agreements with several smaller political parties. This perspective could be appealing enough for both sides to view the prospect of early elections as less risky than forming an unstable coalition that might disintegrate after a limited period. Yet, it's important to always anticipate the unexpected.