Polish President and Prime Minister at the White House

On March 12th, US President Joe Biden invited President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Donald Tusk to Washington for a joint visit. Many indications suggest that the main reason for this special invitation is not only the anniversary of Poland's accession to NATO but also the Americans' concern about their interests in Poland and competition from the French and Koreans.

Such unique invitation for a joint visit of the President and Prime Minister to the White House on the 25th anniversary of Poland's accession to NATO shows the US government's concern about relations with Poland. This is not the first extraordinary action provided by Biden’s administration in recent months. On February 1st, US Ambassador to Warsaw, Mark Brzezinski, hosted an event in honor of the renewal taking place in Poland and of the new Polish parliament. This event was a rarely practiced expression of support for one of the political dispute sides in another country in the world of diplomacy. In turn, on February 14th, James Taiclet, president of the American defense corporation Lockheed Martin, met in Warsaw with President Duda and W?adys?aw Kosiniak-Kamysz, deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense. What do these activities have in common and what is their purpose?

The change of power in Poland created a surprising problem for the American administration. In previous years, Biden's team and the right-wing PiS government (Law and Justice, national-conservative party) were divided by political differences. However, they did not interfere with contacts with the Prime Minister and the effective pursuit of American interests in Poland. Currently, the direct link to the Prime Minister's Office has been severed. According to political observers, Americans can count on direct contacts with the government only at the ministerial level. However, it is Prime Minister Tusk who personally makes strategic decisions in Poland. It is up to him, among others, to cast the deciding vote on the: continuation of multi-billion-dollar US military orders (such as HIMARS rocket launchers); possible further orders (such as two additional squadrons of F-35 aircraft), and on the selection of partners for planned nuclear power plants in Poland.

In each of these areas, the Americans face increasing competition from the French and the Koreans. Tusk has already announced the signing of a new treaty with France concerning, among others, defense and nuclear energy. Korea have recently raised the capital of their Eximbank, which will allow further preferential loans for the purchase of Korean armaments by Poland (including Chunmoo rocket launchers and K2 tanks).

In addition, last week a significant text appeared on the front page of Gazeta Wyborcza, a medium considered favorable to the new government. It exposed numerous controversies and doubts about the reliability of the selected contractors for the nuclear power plant in Lubiatowo-Kopalino by the Baltic Sea. The situation primarily concerns the Westinghouse Electric Corporation, which was selected for this implementation by the previous government. According to the authors, the real beneficiary of the construction will be the political and business environment of former US President Donald Trump.

The text can be interpreted as a preparation of the ground for the possible cancellation of the investment being made with Westinghouse. If there were a replacement for French contractor EDF, it would be a huge financial and image disaster for the Joe Biden administration. It would certainly be used by the Republicans during the ongoing US election campaign. The cancellation of planned U.S. arms purchases would also not help the current president's plan for re-election.

As a result, the expected joint visit of the Polish President and Prime Minister to the White House may not be, as some domestic commentators predict, a paternalistic attempt to reconcile the quarreling Polish parties, nor an emphasis on the essence of the North Atlantic Pact. Instead, it may be a pretext for a direct meeting between Biden and Tusk and an attempt to pressure him to continue further cooperation in strategic areas.

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