Policy Update 20th November 2024

Welcome to this week’s policy update. ?

As ever please do get in touch with me, [email protected] , if you’d like to discuss the following, or other, business issues, put forward your views and/or provide real life examples that we can use in advocacy activity. ?

If you haven’t yet, don’t forget to complete our regular British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) Quarterly Economic Survey (QES). This is open until December 9th. You can take part here: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/G698G2L . This is a key survey, used by a range of policymakers (including the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee in making decisions on interest rates). So please do get involved and make sure Cumbrian business is well represented in this national survey. ?

Cumberland Council are engaging with businesses to help shape the emerging Cumberland Economic Strategy. Their consultants, Jacobs, are looking to discuss the following issues with local firms:

• What are the key issues/barriers impacting on growth of your business?
• What are the key opportunities that could support growth of your business?
• Are your business activities concentrated in specific parts of Cumberland?
• What more should be done to attract funding/inward investment?
• Do you agree with the key themes and goals underpinning the emerging Strategy?

If you’re part of a business located in Cumberland and wish to participate in this process please contact Jacobs using?[email protected] ?to arrange a short one-to-one virtual meeting in the first instance. I did a call with them last week discussing the overall perspective for Cumberland, including bringing in issues from the Local Skills Improvement Plan. ?

If you haven’t signed up for Enterprising Cumbria's countywide Economic Summit book here now??Cumbria Economic Summit Tickets, The Pencil Factory, Keswick | TryBooking United Kingdom . A new Economic Strategy is being prepared and this event will provide a platform for the business community to ensure their needs are front and centre of the strategy and Enterprising Cumbria’s future activities. The summit is on 3rd December, 9.30am - 4.30pm?at the Keswick Pencil Factory?Rawnsley Centre, Keswick, Cumbria CA12 5PN. ?

The November Cumbria Labour Market Briefing has now been published. This contains the latest employment, unemployment and claimant data released by ONS/DWP and HMRC, together with the latest available data on NEETS, job postings, business start-ups and Companies House records.? Please note that the quarterly Universal Credit (UC) data for households has been delayed until 28th November so will be included in the December briefing.? The monthly UC data on individuals is unaffected by the processing issues at DWP and has been updated as usual. ?

Key headlines for Cumbria:

• There were estimated to be 225,205 payrolled employees in Cumbria in October, an increase of 267 from Sept and 1,426 more than a year ago.? This is a slightly faster annual growth rate than nationally.
• Median monthly payrolled earnings in Cumbria were ￡2,361 which is 97% of UK average and earnings growth has been faster year on year locally than nationally (8.9% v 7.0%).
• There were 7,350 claimants actively seeking work in October, 45 more than last month.? The count fell slightly in the former districts of Barrow and Carlisle but rose elsewhere.? Compared to a year ago, the claimant count has increased by 11.9% (+780) which is a slower rate of increase than nationally (17.5%).? The claimant rate was unchanged in Cumbria at 2.5% and is below the national average of 4.2% in all former district areas.? However, claimant rates for young adults (18-24) in Barrow remain above the UK average and this was also the case in Copeland last month.
• There were 41,932 UC claimants in October (in work, seeking work, not available for work), an increase of 633 from last month and 5,292 more than a year ago. ?The UC claimant rate was 14.0% in October compared to 17.5% nationally.? Almost three quarters of UC claimants have been claiming for more than 12 months.
• There were 508 young people (16-17) classed as NEET in September which is 133 more than in August and is a NEET rate of 4.9%. ?It is usual for the NEET count to rise at this time of year as young people are still deciding on their post-16 routes and it can take a couple of months before the figures are a true reflection of activity.
• According to Lightcast there were 8,295 active online job postings during October, 92 fewer than in September.? However, the number of new postings during the month increased by 287 which may be due to seasonal Christmas recruitment activity.?
• There were 455 small business start-ups in the quarter ending September which is 82 fewer than last quarter and 105 fewer than the same quarter last year.
• There were 197 new Companies House incorporations in September and 225 businesses were newly recorded as dissolved/in liquidation during October.
• There were 30,750 active companies on the FAME system at the end of October, 13 more than in September.? Of these, 6.0% had posted financial results showing growth and 4.8% had posted results showing a decline.? Of the active businesses, 648 had a high risk credit score which represents 4.1% of those on the system that have a score and is below the UK level of 6.9%.

Key national headlines:

• Payrolled employment was static nationally compared to last month but has increased year on year.
• The UK employment rate was largely unchanged at 74.8%, the unemployment rate (including non-claimants) increased to 4.3% and economic inactivity decreased to 21.8% (this dataset is deemed sufficiently unreliable by ONS that it has now been downgraded from having national statistics status).
• The number of vacancies (measured via a business survey) decreased by 35,000 in the quarter for the 28th consecutive period but remains above pre-pandemic levels.
• Annual growth in regular earnings (excluding bonuses) was 4.8% and in total earnings (including bonuses) growth was 4.3%.? When adjusted for inflation, regular pay increased by 1.9% and total pay by 1.4%.

The BCC continues to be busy on your behalf. Recent activity includes:

• Director General, Shevaun Haviland, meeting with Director of Special Advisers and Chancellor Engagement, Louise Tinsley, ahead of the Chancellor’s Mansion House speech to discuss BCC’s positioning on pension reforms and investment for infrastructure and UK business.?
• Head of Policy, William Bain, participating in a Department for Business & Trade (DBT) roundtable with the UK Chief Negotiator Matthew Davies on CPTPP, raising key issues on export support and the role of SMEs in Asia-Pacific markets.
• William attending an HMRC Windsor Framework forum meeting.?
• William participating in a UK Domestic Advisory Group Trade and Customs subgroup meeting,?addressing issues like rules of origin and EU exports.
• William taking part in an HMG China Audit policy roundtable meeting with DBT officials, discussing trade links with China.
• Deputy Director of Policy, Jane Gratton, meeting with DBT officials to discuss the draft Code of Practice on the Right To Switch Off and on Pay and Wages, as part of the Plan to Make Work Pay.
• Jane meeting with Department for Work & Pensions (DWP) officials to discuss the Statutory Sick Pay consultation.?
• Jane taking part in a roundtable with the Education Secretary and?the Chair of Skills England to discuss the?skills strategy and Local Skills Improvement Plans (LSIPs).
• Policy Manager, Ben Martin, meeting with the National Infrastructure Commission to discuss their report “Developing Resilience Standards in UK Infrastructure” along with its key points and recommendations to the Government.?
• Home Office briefing on the rollout of the Foreign Influence Registration Scheme (FIRS) in 2025, potentially impacting trade with several countries. We will consult with members once the guidance is released.
• Contributing to Sir Martin Donnelly’s Economic Diplomacy Review for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, focusing on the opportunities to better support UK exports in key markets, and securing inward investment.
• Discussion hosted by the Overseas Development Institute on trade opportunities in Southern Africa, exploring key issues such as supply chains, critical minerals, e-commerce, and UK services links.

Over the coming weeks engagements taking place include, for example:

• Shevaun meeting with Minister for Trade Douglas Alexander on the Minister’s and BCC’s respective priorities and interests.?
• Shevaun and Director of Membership, Anne-Marie Martin, meeting with the EU Ambassador to the United Kingdom.?
• William Bain meeting with a delegation of the Mauritania Embassy, attending DBT’s Gulf Co-operation Council negotiations and taking part in a sub-group meeting of the Domestic Advisory Group on regulatory cooperation and level playing field.?

The BCC policy team is meeting regularly with ministers and officials on the Employment Rights Bill and the wider Plan to Make Work Pay.?They are drafting responses to the four initial consultation documents,?with policy position based on evidence from Chambers, member businesses, the Employment Export Panel and BCC’s Insights Team:

• Industrial Relations: strengthening union right of access to workplaces and lowering ballot thresholds?
• Statutory Sick Pay:?payable to everyone from the first day of illness?
• Zero Hours Contracts: right to be offered a permanent, guaranteed hours contract after 12 weeks and compensation for curtailed or cancelled shifts (and to apply this to agency workers too)?
• Collective Consultation /Fire and Rehire: Requiring firms to consult across more than one establishment when twenty or more people are at risk of redundancy and imposing higher financial penalties for those who flout the rules.

Please get in touch we me with any views, [email protected] . ?

Cumbria Tourism is working with GC Insight to produce a viability study that will explore and test opportunities to develop and potentially expand the Cumbria Coastal Route 200 (CCR200).?The CCR200 viability study is being funded by Cumberland Council and Westmorland & Furness Council through the UK Shared Prosperity Fund.?Developing and extending the 200 miles ‘CCR 200’ concept beyond a motorhomes route into a multi-user sustainable/active travel route (involving train hopping, cycling, walking, horse riding, camping, etc) is a key action in Cumbria’s Destination Management Plan (DMP).?An important component of the research is engaging with stakeholders, to explore a range of issues around the CCR200, including:?

• Role of the CCR200 in meeting regional strategic objectives.?
• Expectations of the CCR200’s proposed development.
• Opportunities and challenges for development and expansion.?
• Complementarity with other initiatives.?

Stakeholders are invited to attend one of the following workshops on 26th November:?

• Rosehill Theatre, Whitehaven, 10am – 12noon.?
• Furness College, Barrow-in-Furness, 2.30pm - 4.30pm.?

You can find out more and book your place here?Expansion of Cumbria Coastal 200 (CCR 200) – Viability Study | Cumbria Tourism . If you can’t attend either workshop but would like to be involved in the consultation, please give your views by completing this survey by November 2024.?If you have any questions regarding the workshops, please contact [email protected] . ?

Customs procedures continue to be the main export hurdle for UK businesses, according to a major new survey of businesses by the British Chambers of Commerce Insights Unit, published during International Trade Week.?The survey of over 1,300 businesses during July and early August showed:?

• 45% of businesses cited customs procedures as the top barrier to exporting. That’s slightly down on the 2023 figure of 49%. Other top barriers cited include export documentation (39%), regulations and standards (35%) and tariffs (33%).??
• 40% say geo-political events have significantly impacted their business over the last year. Issues linked to the war in Ukraine, conflict in Gaza and Brexit are cited as the main events impacting trade. They include energy costs and shipping delays.??
• 37% of exporters anticipate an increase export business over the next 12 months, with 16% expecting a decrease. Manufacturers are the sector most likely to expect an increase in exports.
• 91% of non-exporters do not expect to export.
• When asked what would most encourage them to export, businesses cited a need to improve access to the EU market, simplify trade regulations and reduce bureaucracy, and provide greater export support.?
• Most exporters are not familiar with new or upcoming trade changes. 65% of respondents are unaware of the Border Target Operating Model. Ahead of the UK joining the Asia Pacific trade bloc CPTPP in December, over half of respondents (53%) are unaware of the plans. 52% have no knowledge of safety and security certificates needed from this month for imports from the EU.??The launch of new biometric checks for foreign travellers, including Britons, entering the EU has the highest level of preparedness from business. 34% of respondents are not aware and 37% know some details or are actively preparing for the change, due later this year.??

You can read here thoughts from William Bain on how the forthcoming Trade Strategy can boost UK trade Bright horizons for UK traders as International Trade Week dawns - British Chambers of Commerce . ?

Findings from the BCC’s Insights Unit, show that half of UK businesses say they have been impacted by the conflict in the Middle East.?This is a rise in impact since February 2024, when firms were asked specifically about Red Sea disruption, and two-fifths (37%) were affected, and almost double the proportion (26%) who said they were affected in late October 2023. ?The main impacts cited are increased costs, shipping disruption and delays, and uncertainty on oil prices.?Some businesses report cancelling work in the Middle East because of the conflict.?Shipping container rates have fluctuated significantly since the current Middle East conflict began in October 2023. The cost of shipping a 40ft container from Shanghai to Rotterdam has risen from just over $1,000 then, to just under $4,000 now, having peaked at over $8,000 in July.? ?

Save the date for Chambers’ Global Annual Conference on 26th June 2025, at the QEII Centre, London, for a day packed with thought-provoking discussions, inspiring keynote speakers, and unparalleled networking opportunities. The host of the conference will be multi-award-winning journalist Clive Myrie. Clive is one of the best known and most experienced foreign correspondents and TV news presenters. Keep an eye out for further information on our agenda and speakers. ?

In September BCC published a report on the future of the oil and gas industry in the North Sea. This examined the current policy framework around the North Sea, including licensing, decommissioning, green infrastructure and the fiscal regime. A recommendation from the report was to form a?North Sea Transition Taskforce, which was now been launched and will be led by Philip Rycroft, a former Permanent Secretary in the UK Government, bringing together the expertise of supply chain businesses, unions, environmental groups, and energy policy experts to deliver the widest possible consensus on the right way forward for the North Sea as a critical asset. The taskforce will review four key areas: assessing the scale of the problem, identifying which operations in the North Sea need to be managed, evaluating the impact of the transition on the workforce, and exploring the governance arrangements being put in place to manage the transition. BCC will continue to update Chambers on the progress of the taskforce as this work develops. If you’re a Chamber member involved in the North Sea, either directly or as part of the supply chain, please get in touch with any views, comments or case studies which could support the work of the taskforce, email me, [email protected] . ?

The Careers & Enterprise Company is hosting an Employer Excellence in Careers Education Seminar exploring how employers can address skills needs early to scale and sustain growth in their businesses.?Chaired by Peter Cheese (CIPD CEO), BCC's Deputy Director of Public Policy, Jane Gratton, will join a panel with other experts from Capital College Group, AND Digital, Flannery Plant Hire, and NHS England. Discussion will focus on?how employers can develop young people’s skills, including through modern work experience, and help them transition from education to employment, collectively exploring the question:?How can employers develop the skills and work readiness of young people to unlock growth??The seminar is on 22nd November, 10.30-12, love streamed from The Wellcome Collection. You can register to join online here Webinar Registration - Zoom . ?

Open for applications: Driving International Trade Conference 2025. BCC will be hosting Chambers’ inaugural Driving International Trade Conference on 20th March 2025 in central London. This exclusive, free-to-attend, event is designed for C-suite leaders who are focused on expanding their international reach and navigating the complexities of global trade.?Spaces are limited so if you’re interested please get in touch as soon as possible with me, [email protected] . The event is aimed at business owners and/or senior executives at the following organisations:?

• Small and medium-sized businesses with propensity and capacity to scale up.?
• Businesses with propensity and capacity to grow.
• Any sector, revenue, and turnover.?

It’s aimed at UK businesses but international firms will also be considered.??

Taking place from 2nd?to 5th December, the Morocco Investor Mission presents a valuable chance for UK businesses in green energy and infrastructure sectors to connect with Moroccan and African leaders. This event, coordinated by Invest Africa and held in Casablanca and Rabat, aligns with Morocco’s 2030 investment goals. UK businesses are invited to register here Morocco Investor Mission — Invest Africa . You can download the draft programme here Draft-Programme1_MIM-Dec-202495.pdf .

Suzanne Caldwell, Managing Director