Policy Update 20th June 2023

Welcome to this week’s policy update. As ever please do get in touch with me, [email protected],?if you’d like to discuss any of the following, or other business issues. We’re also keen to receive any real life examples you’d like to put forward as they really do help in lobbying activity.

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As usual the BCC (British Chambers of Commerce) is busy on your behalf with government and others. This week:

• Shevaun Haviland, BCC Director General, will be attending a Ministerial Roundtable hosted by the Rt Hon Kemi Badenoch MP, Secretary of State for Business and Trade.
• She will also be meeting with the General Counsel of the World Trade Organisation.
• And she will be in Geneva for the 13th Annual World Chambers Congress.
• Baroness Martha Lane Fox CBE, BCC President, will be attending The Times CEO Summit.
• Sarah Howard MBE, BCC Chair, will be attending the UK government’s Skills for Growth Conference.
• The BCC team will be hosting a Quarterly Economic Survey session for Labour MPs.

And last week, BCC took part in the Domestic Advisory Group meeting of business and other stakeholders on UK-EU Trade.

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Thanks as usual to Ginny Murphy, Senior Analyst, Cumberland Council, for the June 2023 Labour Market Briefing which contains the claimant data and HMRC data released by ONS this morning together with the latest available data on job postings, NEETs, business start- ups and business performance.

Key national headlines are that:

• Employment and unemployment both increased in the quarter to April whilst economic inactivity fell slightly.?
• The employment rate of 76% is 0.2 percentage points up on last quarter but still 0.6 percentage points lower than before the pandemic.?However total workforce jobs rose by a record 395,000 to a record high of 36.8m, driven by increases in health and social care jobs as well as those in hospitality.?Alongside this, total hours worked also reached a record high in the latest quarter.
• The unemployment rate of 3.8% was up 0.1ppt over the quarter but is 0.2 percentage points lower than before the pandemic.
• The inactivity rate (those not in work and not seeking work) was 21%, a fall of 0.4 percentage points over the quarter but still 0.7ppt higher than before the pandemic and inactivity due to long term ill health remains at a record high.
• The number of vacancies, measured via a survey of businesses, fell in the quarter to May to 1,051,000 and fell in 13 of the 18 surveyed sectors but remains 250,000 higher than before the pandemic.?
• Annual growth in total pay (including bonuses) was 6.5% and growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 7.2%.?However, in real terms this represents falls of 2.0% and 1.3% respectively.?Average annual private sector regular pay growth was 7.6%, the highest growth seen outside the pandemic period and public sector pay growth was 5.6%, the highest growth rate since 2003.

Key local headlines are that:

• The total number of payrolled employees rose to 222,888 in May 2023 which means there are 2,559 more residents in payrolled employment than a year ago (+1.2%).
• Median payrolled earnings were ￡2,124 in Cumbria in May 2023 which is 95% of the UK average.?Annual growth in payrolled earnings in Cumbria has exceed the average for the UK (8.6% v 7.0%).
• The count of claimants actively seeking work fell by 525 to 6,745 between April and May 2023 and is 550 lower than a year ago.?The count fell in all 6 of the former district areas.?The claimant rate in Cumbria was 2.3% in May 2023 compared to 3.7% nationally and is below the national figure in all districts.?However, claimant rates for 18-24 year olds remain above the national average in Barrow and are the same as nationally in Allerdale.
• There were 36,160 claimants of Universal Credit in May 2023 (including those seeking work, already in work or not available for work).?This is an increase of 464 from April and means 12.1% of the population aged 16-64 is in receipt of UC.?There were increases in claimants in work and not available for work but the number seeking/planning/preparing for work fell.
• There were 317 young people aged 16/17 classed as NEET in April 2023, down 44 from March, giving a NEET rate of 3.4% compared to a national rate of 4.9%.?The rate was below the national rate in all 6 former district areas.
• There was a significant rise in active online job postings in May 2023, up by 3,253 compared to April to reach a record high of 13,739.?This is a monthly increase of 31% compared to 23% nationally (NB: this is a different methodology to the ONS vacancy survey).?As is generally the case, the highest volume of postings was for vacancies in the health sector followed by retail, accommodation and food & beverage services.?Occupations most in demand were kitchen & catering assistants, care workers, nurses, cleaners & domestics and sales assistants.
• There were 606 small business start-ups in the quarter ending April 2023 which is 148 more than last quarter and 50 more than the same quarter last year.
• There were 30,736 active companies in Cumbria at the end of May 2023, 94 more than in April and there were 193 businesses newly recorded as dissolved/in liquidation during the month.
• There has been a temporary interruption in our supply of financial risk data from Red Flag Alert and April 2023 remains the latest when 2,675 businesses had financial red flags which was an increase from March but lower than a year ago.?This data will be restored to the briefing next month.

This briefing can also be downloaded from the Intelligence Observatory website https://www.cumbriaobservatory.org.uk/economy-employment/economy-employment-further-information/, where a host of other useful information is available.

If you’re recruiting then it’s worth considering a series of recruitment events being run by Cumbria LEP:

“Are you recruiting? Do you offer flexible ways of working? If you answered yes to both of these questions then our Flexible Working Recruitment events may of interest to you. We are seeking Cumbrian employers who are recruiting and who offer flexible working arrangements, to attend our events to promote job opportunities and vacancies across Cumbria. By actively promoting and discussing more flexible ways of working, we may attract more people into the labour market.?Examples of flexible working could include: reduced hours, flexible start and finish times, condensed hours over reduced days such as a 4 day week, flexible lunch. The format of the day will be a market stall approach with different businesses holding their own stall. The events will be supported by the Cumbria LEP, DWP and Centre for Leadership and Performance.

If you would like to be part of one or more of our events, or wish to find out more, please let me know. The details of the events are shown below and the times will be confirmed nearer to the dates, however please plan for a full working day at this stage:

• 19th September: The Forum, Barrow
• 21st September: People First Conference Centre, Carlisle
• 26th September: Kendal Town Hall, Kendal
• 28th September: Solway Hall, Whitehaven

Contact [email protected].“

Have Your Say on a Destination Plan for Cumbria - Stakeholder Workshop, 4th July, University of Cumbria, Ambleside Conference. Cumbria Tourism is currently leading the development of a fresh Destination Management Plan (DMP) for the county. This is a critically important strategic document for the industry which will become not Cumbria Tourism’s DMP, but our collective DMP. It will create a shared statement of intent to manage our destination over a stated period of time; with defined roles; identified actions; apportioned resources, measures and monitoring. Your input, and that of a broad range of stakeholders and partners, is invaluable. This workshop begins that process and attendees will join facilitated groups to help inform and shape the plan. To ensure representation from as many organisations and businesses as possible, bookings will be limited to two per organisation/member business. Please book here by no later than 2th June: Upcoming Events | Cumbria Tourism.

Calling all Landlords in Westmorland and Furness! Discover the latest industry insights, grants, and government updates at our Landlords' Forum. Join us on Thursday 6th July, from 5pm to 7pm at Penrith Town Hall. Don't miss out on this valuable event designed to help you thrive in the local housing sector. Register now by emailing [email protected].

The Power of Partnership - Unlocking business action on Net Zero. In the Autumn of 2022, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) convened an ‘Advisory Group on Business’ (AGB), comprised of senior leaders from a range of sectors, regions and experience across the UK. The group was set up to provide solutions from the business community to keep the UK’s Net Zero commitment on track. The group, chaired by BCC Director General, Shevaun Haviland, sent a report to the CCC for consideration. You can read the report here: Green Innovation Hub (britishchambers.org.uk).

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The Groceries Code Adjudicator’s (GCA) 2023 annual survey reveals that inflation has continued to create challenges for the groceries sector. The results of the tenth annual GCA survey show that 91% of suppliers had requested at least one cost price increase (CPI) in the previous 12 months. 28% of respondents reported a refusal to consider a CPI or an unreasonable delay in reaching a decision on a CPI request, the most reported issue in 2023 and over the past six years. You can read the survey here: Improved compliance from Retailers despite inflationary pressures persisting - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk).

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Latest guidance from the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC). The NCSC are currently seeking to understand the UK impact across different sectors of the?recent cyber attack affecting HR payroll provider Zellis. The NCSC have provided some guidelines for businesses which may use Zellis as a provider.?If you think you have been impacted by this, or by the underlying MOVEit vulnerability and data extortion incident - NCSC.GOV.UK, please do let NCSC know through their reporting page: Where to Report a Cyber Incident - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk). The NCSC also encourage the use of the following tools/services:

• The free and easy to setup NCSC Early Warning service, which helps to notify organisations of their susceptibility to known vulnerabilities - Early Warning - NCSC
• The Exercise in a Box tool, designed to help organisations prepare for an incident - Exercise in a Box - NCSC.GOV.UK
• The NCSC Subscription Centre, including weekly threat reporting - Subscribe - NCSC.GOV.UK

UK trade data for April 2023 has been released by the Office for National Statistics. You can read BCC’s response to the Declaration and call for further actions here: BCC WELCOMES ATLANTIC DECLARATION (britishchambers.org.uk).

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The Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) has launched a short consultation on common usage charges at ports in England for receipt of inbound consignments of SPS goods from the EU ahead of checks beginning at the end of January 2024. This is open until 9th July and you can get involved here> Charging arrangements at government-run Border Control Posts - Defra - Citizen Space. Defra say that they are particularly keen not to disproportionately impact small businesses.

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Defra has issued new guidance on risk categories of plant and animal products entering GB from the EU on the introduction of the new border control processes later this year. You can find out more here: TOM risk categories for animal and animal product imports from the EU to Great Britain: summary tables - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk).

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The Electronic Travel Authorisation scheme (ETA) will apply to those passengers visiting the UK or transiting the UK who do not need a visa for short stays. The scheme will be implemented in a phased manner, on a nationality basis, over the next two years. There are information sessions over the coming weeks which aim to familiarise attendees with the ETA scheme and provide the opportunity to ask questions. You can find information and book here: ETA_Events_June_-_July_2023.docx (live.com) and download the factsheet here: Albums (brandworkz.com).

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Suzanne Caldwell

Managing Director