Policy Update 20th February 2024

Welcome to this week’s policy update. ? ?

As ever please do get in touch with me, [email protected] , if you would like to discuss the following, or other, business issues, put forward your views and/or provide real life examples that we can use in advocacy activity.

If you haven’t yet please do input to the Chambers’ Quarterly?Economic Survey?(QES) Q1 2024 which is now collecting responses. As the largest and most representative independent business survey of its kind in the UK, the QES is closely watched by policymakers such as the Treasury, the Bank of England and the Office of Budget Responsibility, while also attracting significant media attention. So please do take the opportunity to complete this survey and make sure the Cumbria experience is well represented! You can complete it here:?https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/TGBX9QJ . ?

Don’t forget, the first Cumbria Careers Day takes place on 6th March, organised by Cumbria Careers Hub. It would be fantastic if as many businesses as possible would get involved in what we hope will become a growing annual event. You can do so in whatever way works for you, for example opening up your business to visitors, arranging an activity with a local school or putting content out on social media. We certainly will be! You can find out more and get involved here.

The team at British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) continue to be busy working on your behalf. This week:

• Director General, Shevaun Haviland, is meeting with the Secretary of State for Business and Trade, the Rt Hon Kemi Badenoch MP. The focus of the meeting will be to discuss Free Trade Agreements, along with other business leaders.
• Shevaun is also meeting with the Second Permanent Secretary to HM Treasury, Beth Russell, to discuss priorities ahead of the Spring Budget on?6th March.

Last week the BCC:

• Joined over 20 EU Ambassadors for a discussion on the experiences of UK businesses with EU trade, and to present our policy recommendations and new findings. Shevaun Haviland, took part in a wide ranging conversation on trade, the economy, and infrastructure. BCC will be engaging further with the EU Ambassadors next month.
• Took part in a meeting with British Chambers in EU and Belgium, on the latest regulatory and policy developments in Brussels and what it means for UK businesses.
• Were also briefed on the latest developments on trade between the UK and India.

The latest UK trade data for December 2023, the final quarter of the year, and 2023 overall, were released by the Office for National Statistics on Thursday. Overall, goods exports volumes fell 4.6% in 2023, while services exports volumes rose by 5.3%. You can read BCC’s response here: ?Strong Trade In Services Boosts UK Exports? - British Chambers of Commerce . ?

The next meeting of the BCC Trade Policy Committee is on 27th February. Again, please let me know of any issues. ?

Last week Chambers launched our People and Work Challenge report, ‘Boosting Skills: Journey through education and work’.?The report outlines a 10-point plan to boost workforce skills, by supporting people at every stage of their journey through education and employment. Among the recommendations in the report are:

• An industrial strategy that is fit for purpose.
• Funding a business support service to help employers identify, plan and invest in workforce skills.
• More investment to make Careers Information, Education and Guidance a mainstream priority for school leaders.
• Recognition of employers who invest in workplace training, through the tax and procurement systems, and a new skills investment kitemark.

You can read it here: New Framework to Boost Access to Skills and Jobs? - British Chambers of Commerce . ?

Fireside chat with Jonathan Athow, Director General of Customer Strategy and Tax Design at HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC)., who is tasked with gathering the customer insights that will lead to better tax strategy, assurance, policies, products and processes at HMRC. You can join a webinar, hosted by Intuit QuickBooks, on 21st February to hear about HMRC’s tax modernisation strategy for the next 10 years and how Jonathan Athow's team are addressing the challenges related to Making Tax Digital.?This is an opportunity to hear directly from senior government leadership and join the conversation on UK tax policy. Register here: Webinar Registration - Zoom . ?

Thanks as ever to Ginny Murphy, Senior Analyst, Cumberland Council for the February Labour Market Briefing which contains the latest claimant and employee data released by ONS this morning, together with the latest available data on NEETS, job postings, business start-ups and business risk. ?

Key headlines for Cumbria:

• There were estimated to be 225,038 payrolled employees resident in Cumbria in January 2024, an increase of 376 from December and 3,287 more than a year ago.
• Median monthly earnings in January 2024 were estimated to be ￡2,206 which is 95% of the UK average. ?Payrolled earnings growth in Cumbria has been stronger than nationally over the past year (6.6% v 6.4%).
• There were 6,710 claimants of JSA/UC actively seeking work in January 204, an increase of 85 from December. The count rose in the former district areas of Carlisle, Copeland, Eden and South Lakeland, a fall in Allerdale and no change in Barrow.? Compared to the same time last year the count is 525 lower which is a bigger fall than nationally (-7.3% v -4.5%).
• The JSA/UC claimant rate in January 2024 was unchanged at 2.2% and remains below the national rate of 3.7% in all former district areas.? It is 0.2 percentage points lower than a year ago.
• There were 38,616 claimants of Universal Credit in January 2024.? This is an increase of 819 from December and 3,212 more than a year ago. The number of claimants rose in all three conditionality groups (seeking work, in work, not available for work).? The latest figures mean that 12.9% of the working age population is claiming UC in Cumbria, below the national rate of 15.6%.? Three quarters of UC claimants had been claiming for more than a year in January 2024.
• There were 32,159 households in receipt of Universal Credit in November 2023 (these figures are not released as quickly as for individuals), an increase of 1,981 from November 2022 (+6.6%).
• There were estimated to be 28,804 children living in UC households in November 2023 which is 2,190 more than a year ago (+8.5%).
• There were 312 young people (aged 16/17) classed as NEET in December 2023, up by 9 from Nov.? This gave a NEET rate of 3.0% in December which is well below the national rate of 6.0%.
• The participation rate of young people was 90.8% in December 2023 which is lower than the national rate of 91.6% - it was higher than nationally in Westmorland & Furness (92.9%) but lower in Cumberland (89.3%).
• There were 7,849 active online job postings in January 2024, 419 more than the December total with increases in all former district areas except Copeland and Eden where there was no change.? New postings also rose, perhaps signalling the start of recruitment for the hospitality sector.
• There were 538 small business start-ups in the quarter ending December 2023 which is 22 fewer than last quarter but 69 more than the same quarter last year.
• There were 31,015 active companies at the end of January 2024, 24 more than in December and there were 157 businesses newly recorded as dissolved/in liquidation during January 2024.
• In Jan 2024, 4.4% of Cumbria’s companies on the Red Flag Alert system were rated as having financial red flags which is lower than the national average of 6.1%.

National headlines:

• ONS has now reinstated the Labour Force Survey although they advise exercising caution over interpretation of quarterly change due to the increased volatility of the estimates.? According to the latest estimates the UK employment was 75% which is slightly up on last quarter but still lower than a year ago.? The UK unemployment rate (which includes non-claimants) was estimated to be 3.8%, down on the quarter and the same as this time last year.? The economic inactivity rate was estimated to be 21.9% which is higher than a year ago, driven by those inactive due to long term sickness which remains at historically high levels.
• Total weekly hours worked rose on the quarter but were slightly lower than a year ago.
• There were 108,000 working days lost due to labour disputes in Dec 2023, mostly in the health sector.
• The number of vacancies recorded via the national business survey fell on the quarter but remain well above pre-pandemic levels (this is a different data source and methodology to the local area data).
• Payrolled employment increased by 48,000 in Jan 2024 from Dec 2023 and median monthly payrolled pay was estimated to have increased by 6.4% compared with a year ago.
• Nominal earnings growth remains strong although it has eased a little recently.? Annual growth in total earnings (including bonuses) was 5.8% in Oct to Dec 2023 and growth in regular earnings (excluding bonuses) was 6.2%).
• When adjusted for inflation, total earnings growth was 1.4% and regular earnings growth was 1.8%.? The wholesale, retail, hotels and restaurants sector saw the largest annual regular growth rate at 7.2%.

The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) has launched its manifesto. The full details of the report can be found?here .? They are keen to hear your feedback so if you have any comments at all then please let me know, [email protected] and I will feed them back to local Chair, Tony Ferguson of Dodd & Co, who will in turn pass them onto the ICAEW policy team.

The UK government has signed an enhanced Trade & Investment Partnership Agreement with Nigeria. You can read more here: UK signs landmark economic partnership with Nigeria - GOV.UK ( www.gov.uk ) .

Energy UK is hosting a webinar on the support and steps available for businesses to help with decarbonising their operations.?Businesses around the country may be missing out on opportunities to save money and save energy by using energy more efficiently and decarbonising. In this webinar you will hear from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, Drax and an energy network representative about the available support, to reduce, offset and remove Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions, and where to find resources to help navigate this complex landscape.?It’s on 14th March and you can register here: Webinar: Energy efficiency and decarbonisation advice for businesses - Energy UK ( energy-uk.org.uk ) .

The changes to the Windsor Framework represent significant steps towards simplifying customs processes and reducing checks and paperwork on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. A webinar on 21st February will explore the implications of these changes for businesses, the timeframes involved, and the opportunities emerging from the new agreement. You can register here: Webinar Registration - Zoom .

In September 2022, HMRC completed stage 1 of transitioning to the Customs Declaration Service (CDS), bidding farewell to the CHIEF (Customs Handling of Import and Export Freight) system for Import declarations. Now, stage 2 is on the horizon, marking the withdrawal of the Export CHIEF service. This webinar will help businesses navigate these changes effectively and ensure a smooth transition. Find out more through a webinar on 7th March. You can register here: Webinar Registration - Zoom .

Cumberland Council are looking for non-elected members (‘co-optees’) to join their local Community Panels. These panels liaise with the community to set local priorities and direct funding and investment where it is needed. It’s really important work that makes a difference to people’s lives at a grass roots level.? You can find out more about what Community Panels do and see your local panel here:??What are Community Panels and how do I apply? | Cumberland Council . Each panel can appoint up to three co-opted members to bring fresh expertise, views and backgrounds.?They are asking organisations and individuals across Cumberland to find out more and get involved.?The role lasts for 12 months and co-optees play an active role in questioning and shaping local decision making. As non-elected members they do not vote, but the role ensures panels are listening to our communities in the decisions they make.?As well as fulfilling this vital role, co-opted members have the opportunity to network with likeminded individuals and benefit from a range of training and development opportunities.?There is no one single vision for what a co-opted member looks like. To find out more and to apply, please visit?Co-opted Community Panel members | Cumberland Council ?

Suzanne Caldwell Managing Director