Policy Report: Water Insecurity in Kenya focusing on Climate change impacts, adaptation, and policy recommendations.

Abstract

As climate change worsens the problem of water security worldwide, widespread access to clean, safe, and adequate water is becoming more challenging. There are currently over 1.2 billion people globally without access to safe, clean, and sufficient water, and most of these people live in 20 Global South countries classified by the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) as water scarce. Kenya was classified as a water-scarce nation in 1992, with its freshwater resources highly vulnerable to interannual rainfall fluctuations, exacerbating the extremes of floods and droughts. Consequently, Kenya has suffered devastating flooding every three to four years, and the arid and semi-arid (ASAL) are the most vulnerable to flash floods. On the other hand, the nation has also suffered from climate-related drought; the 2008/2011 drought exerted a socioeconomic consequence that slowed the nation's Gross Domestic Product by an average of 3% yearly, with the livestock sector suffering a loss of over 85 million United States Dollars. To mitigate these impacts of climate change, in 2010, Kenya launched its national climate policy, the National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) and its National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) in 2013. Using Kenya as an example, this study investigated the present and future climate change effects on its water sector and adaptation measures taken to improve it. In Kenya, the findings indicated that temperature and precipitation have risen since the 1950s. In the future, Kenya will continue to experience variations as predicted by climate models.?Water sector impacts on the economy are most clearly observed in fluctuations in the quantity of water and the decline in its quality, as part of the adaptation mechanisms in Kenya, infrastructural modifications of waterbodies' environments, forecasting models that can provide early warning for climate change, and robust policy infrastructures and institutions to guide their implementation need to be adopted.

Introduction

Human-caused climate change causes global warming, rising sea levels, and changes in precipitation patterns, all of which endanger human health, food security, and water security, particularly in the Global South (5). Food, water, housing, and sanitation are critical for low-income populations in the Global South, but they are increasingly difficult to obtain due to financial restrictions, ineffective governance, institutional gaps, and climate change (3). Kenya is extremely vulnerable to climate change; for example, droughts in 2005 and 2006 harmed 3.5 million people in the northeast region, with about 70% of cattle dying7. This was followed in 2011 by a regional drought crisis that affected almost 13 million people in Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Djibouti (7). This demonstrates Kenya's complex and dynamic climate, with climatic phenomena such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the country's geography affecting rainfall and worsening this vulnerability (4). For example, with ENSO, rainfall increases as temperatures rise during IOD; as a result, Kenya witnessed one of the strongest El Nino episodes in the last 50 years in 2015 (7).

Study Area - Kenya

Because arid and semi-arid lands have harsher weather conditions, it makes sense that communities within these regions are more vulnerable to natural disasters, with seasonal floods affecting various parts of the country, particularly along the flood plains in the Lake Victoria basin and along the Tana River (11). Similarly, landslides and mudslides are common throughout the long rainy season, which lasts from March to May. These occurrences have an impact on the provinces of western Nyanza and the North Rift Valley (11). Despite this vulnerability, the country ranks 37th in the world in terms of being least prepared for climate change issues and 31st in terms of being most threatened by and vulnerable to its effects (4). Furthermore, 87% of the country is dry and semi-arid (ASAL), exacerbating readiness issues because 80% of the country receives less than 700 mm3 of precipitation each year (4).

According to the 2005 Kenya Water Report, more than half of the population lacks access to clean drinking water, despite the Water Act of 1974, which stipulated that potable water be supplied to all households by 200015. Still, more than 30% of Kenya's urban population in major towns and cities such as Nairobi, Kisumu, and Mombasa lack access to a water supply system, while more than 60% of the rural population lacks access (6). Furthermore, Kenya's water security is jeopardised by climate change. Thus, emphasising the importance of implementing adaptation and mitigation strategies into Kenya's climate and water policy by incorporating coherence and ethical considerations relevant to Kenya's environmental and human rights. As a result, climate and water policies should recognise water as a basic human right (2). As a result, the government should engage public input at all levels of government when making decisions that will contribute to long-term sustainability.

Current Climate Change Status and Impacts

At present, it is estimated that the nation has warmed to a temperature of roughly 1°C, and at approximately 0.2°C per decade since the 1970s, indicating an anthropogenic influence on the climate-energy budget since the industrialisation period began. As a result, the nation is classified as a water-scarce region whose surface water resources cover only 2% of the total surface area (3). In addition, Mount Kenya, one of the most extensive water catchments in the nation, is seeing an accelerated glacial melt-off with increasing temperatures, leading to a further drain on its glacially fed rivers (5). As a result of variability in precipitation patterns, river flows, irrigation, and water management are affected, and the frequency of drought in the country has been exacerbated; Because of this, unimproved groundwater sources and surface water sources have become less reliable during prolonged periods of drought (19). The most common natural hazards in Kenya are flooding and droughts, where climate Hazards have increased in complexity, number, frequency, and intensity8. Amidst the COVID 19 pandemic, Kenya's food and water insecurity are escalating (5). As of July 2021, the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) announced that 2.1 million people are facing a food and water crisis in arid and semi-arid Kenya due to below-average rainfall over two consecutive seasons. Additionally, due to gender inequalities, women are particularly vulnerable to hunger and water stress, especially when climate change-related problems strike (13).

Future Climate Change Projections

Kenya's scarce water resources are strained by increased population growth, urbanisation, and forest degradation and further exacerbated by increasing temperature, evaporations rates and variability in precipitation (14). Based on Global Circulation Models (GCMs) projections, the nation's temperature will rise to 2.5°C by 2050, with a likelihood of warming ranging between 1.3°C to 4 °C by 2100 (11). According to United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP), a county is classified as water-scarce if its yearly water supply is less than 1000 mm3annually (11). Kenya's per capita is estimated to be about 650mm3 per year. Future water projections are calculated to be 250m3 per year because of climate change and increased water demand due to increasing natural dependence on natural resources for food, water, energy, and income (6). In addition, Kenya is under threat of climate-induced water insecurity due to the country's dependence on erratic precipitation patterns as rainfall and evaporation rate are projected to change, exerting a harmful reduction in the rates of surface infiltration and groundwater recharge (2). However, based on GCMs, Kenya is projected to experience an increase in the rain; this will likely result from extreme precipitation events for some areas, and increased precipitation variability as some regions will experience aridity, hence the 'East Africa Paradox' (6).

Current Adaptation Responses

1.?????National Adaptation Policies

The Kenyan government is concerned about climate change since it undermines the vision 2030, which focuses on protecting the environment, livestock, and human life (10). As a leading nation in championing the fight against climate change domestically and abroad, Kenya is fully committed to addressing climate change at home and overseas (10). Kenya established its first comprehensive climate change policy framework in 2010, the National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS). It is intended to incorporate climate change and mitigation into all aspects of government planning, budgeting, and development (15). To operationalise the NCCRS, the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources coordinated the development of several adaptation frameworks, including the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP 2013-2017), which aimed to increase yearly water availability for everyone from everyone 647mm3 to 1000 mm3 by 2023 (11).?In addition, as part of the nation's commitment to combating climate change, the state enacted the Climate Change Act of 2016 (19). This provided the framework for implementing climate change solutions and the Bill of Rights, which explained the nation's vulnerability, exposure, and resilience to climate change. A crucial part of this strategy was the establishment of the National Climate Change Council in 2016 by the Ministry of Planning and Devolution Reporting, which is mandated for coordinating climate change plans and actions in national and county budgets and plans (19).

Additionally, the nation developed the National Adaptation Plan 2015-2030 (NAP 2015-2030), a comprehensive adaptation plan that builds on the foundation laid by the National Climate Change Adaptation Plan, National Climate Change Act of 2016, and the nation's vision on adaptation and mitigation supported by community-level adaptation actions (19). Kenya's adaptation component is based on this document in its First and Second Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Secretariat (5).?In addition, the National Policy on Climate Finance and Climate Change Framework Policy guide mainstream national departments and county governments by supporting the nations climate change adaptation, mitigation frameworks, and cutting-edge resilience pathways through the National Environmental Management Authority, which the UNFCCC Green Climate Fund accredits (5). However, even though the government's climate change policies have received overwhelming support from the non-state sector, the government should also aim to increase environmental monitoring capabilities to enable more effective ecological management, as well as incorporate women into climate change decision making and policy development to increase gender mainstreaming, public awareness and public consultations as outlined in the Climate Change Act of 2016 (19.) Overall, Kenya's policies and action rating for the 1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible indicates that Kenya's climate policies and action are prominently consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C when compared to Kenya's fair share contribution1. Nevertheless, Kenya's emissions will still increase in projections, and Kenya should receive international support for further mitigation action to go beyond what is necessary through its resources (16).

2.?????Early Warning Systems

Kenya uses the Kenya Meteorological Services (KMS) services that operate 39 stations staffed by well-trained meteorologists. In addition, 600 weather stations are operated voluntarily by the service (20). Although the number of rainfall stations had grown to 2,000, several have closed due to a lack of resources to maintain them (20). To promote the nation's development, KMS provides weather and climatological services to various sectors of the economy such as agriculture, forestry, water resources management, civil aviation, industry, commerce, and public utilities so that natural resources can be better utilised and exploited4.?Meteorological information needed for national and international use must be collected and disseminated through an efficient telecommunications system based on the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) (20). Since?the 1980s, Kenya has been using a succession of time-bound drought management projects in response to early warning systems and planning systems in climate management rather than adopting anticipatory and preventive governance approaches (13, 3).?In addition, the Nation's Food Relief programme needs to be evaluated, as poor infrastructure in Kenya impedes food movement for commercial or disaster relief purposes, with impassable roads, inadequate telecommunications networks, and obstructed areas (3). Lastly, water management decisions should be based on scientific data, modelling, and evaluation of flow data, drought data, and assessment of climate impacts based on timely rainfall monitoring, including remote rainfall estimation using satellites and radar (8).

Recommendations

1.?????Community Sensitisation and Access to Information

Kenya has not sufficiently reached out to its population and educated them on disaster management, particularly floods and water shortages (3). At the local level, a lack of climate change information, particularly on planning and coping methods, is a severe setback to the nation's long-term water insecurity risks (1). Despite advancements in contingency planning, there is still a gap between the data provided by early warning systems about climate threats and the government's ability to act to avert or lessen the dangers (9). To assist citizens in dealing with increasingly unpredictable weather patterns, the government should improve access to meteorological information at both the local and national levels by establishing environmental awareness programmes and climate literacy inductions to assist non-climate members of society in discerning challenging and complex climate information to support their adaptation and mitigation (17).

2.?????Early Warning Systems

Through continued investments in weather stations and by expanding the nation's seismological and hydro-meteorological apparatuses, the government can improve Kenya's adaptive capacity so that the government, policymakers, and communities have information about the changing climate and the availability of water and water supplies from improved measurements of climate parameters such as El Nino and variability in precipitation (9). Through high-quality, evenly distributed long-term observation records that capture climate change's national and regional implications, supported by monitoring, detection, and attribution of climate change, drought management plans can be developed to mitigate the effects of drought on water stress (6).?It is not often considered but can be assessed how future changes in radiation will affect the environment (17). Agri-modelling skills, pollution and emissions modelling, crop growth management, and climate-proofing may be areas of concern (2).?It is also necessary to add that those robust and continuous observations are essential for developing climate models that can assess the vulnerability and adaptability of climate systems; these observations include surface observations and upper-air and greenhouse gas measurements (14). ?It is noteworthy that KMS does not have 21st-century leading facilities for data analysis, data mapping and data evaluation that would allow overlays of multiple products to produce more accurate forecasts (20).?It will be easier for KMS to overlay different products and make more accurate forecasts with a modern facility (20). The weather models can be improved and refined to enhance numerical forecasting, dynamical modelling, and remote sensing techniques (9).

3.?????Financial, Human and Technical framework to guide the conservation of Water Resources

In global south countries like Kenya, where resources like human capital, finance, and technical know-how have always been limited, establishing sustainable crisis management campaigns has always been more difficult (13). The lack of these resources limits the nation's ability to respond effectively to climate-induced disasters such as floods and severe droughts16.?The restoration of the water management function is an essential regenerative physical function that can help improve water resource management (11). Currently, the administration is encouraging the enactment of adaptation strategies and framework alongside sub-basin management, which should consider the sectors' current and future needs and vulnerabilities (2, 9). The state government should also fund targeted research to identify water resources challenges at the local and regional levels to inform adaptation measures (14). Improving water management will benefit various sectors such as agriculture, thus safeguarding water access and food security (11). Additionally, revolutionising the water body will enable the nation to utilise the green economy opportunities, climate finance flows, and carbon funds mechanisms, presenting additional funding levels to supplement international financial aid (12). Furthermore, the private sector can generate carbon credits for sale in global markets by exploiting the green economy (13).

References

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19.???Climate Change Act 2016. Kenyalaw.org. 2016. Available from: https://kenyalaw.org/kl/fileadmin/pdfdownloads/Acts/ClimateChangeActNo11of2016.pdf

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