Poland and the Portuguese Real Estate Market!

Today we are in Poland in his Capital City of Warsaw, where we will have a workshop organized by the Polish Portuguese Chamber of Commerce and APEMIP. As active members of both organizations, and given the importance of sharing our motivations for participating in such events, I would like to include some notes in my article about Poland, its citizens, and its significance for our real estate market and our investment in the country.

The Portuguese real estate market is increasingly recognizing Poland as a significant strategic partner. Over the past decade, the Polish economy has grown at an average rate of 3.4%, significantly outpacing Portugal’s growth rate of 1.7%. Today, the Polish economy is worth more than three times the Portuguese economy, reflecting robust expansion. Although Portugal's GDP per capita is still higher, Poland has been closing this gap substantially over the past 20 years, especially after the debt crisis that severely affected Southern European countries.

Poland, with a population of about 36.7 million, has a significantly larger demographic base compared to Portugal’s 10.3 million residents. This factor contributes to a more dynamic economy and a potentially larger real estate market. On the other hand, Poland faces challenges due to its geographical position, particularly with Germany, its largest trading partner since 1990, experiencing economic difficulties. Last year, Germany was the only G7 economy to contract, affecting Poland’s trade, with imports from Germany amounting to €67 billion and exports reaching €98 billion in 2023, representing about a third of the total in each case.

Additionally, Poland has been dealing with the impacts of the war in Ukraine, which began in February 2022. The Russian invasion has affected inflation in Poland, particularly in food and energy sectors, and led to a historic low for the zloty against the euro. Although the currency has since recovered to pre-pandemic levels, the influx of over one million Ukrainian refugees represents both a challenge and an opportunity for the Polish economy and job market.

Between the fall of 2023 and the spring of 2025, Poland will hold four significant elections, starting with parliamentary elections and ending with presidential ones. This political period could further influence the economic environment and real estate market in the country.

Despite notable differences in their economies—Portugal’s strong service sector versus Poland’s diverse industrial base—both countries share common aspects that make Poland an important market for Portuguese real estate. Both are EU members, granting them access to the single European market and EU funds, influencing their economies and regulations. They also face similar challenges related to innovation, competitiveness, and demographics.

While Portugal excels in tourism and real estate, Poland attracts investments in industrial and manufacturing sectors. Both countries are affected by globalization and supply chain changes, reinforcing the importance of strategic partnerships between them. Thus, the Polish market represents a valuable opportunity for the Portuguese real estate sector, reflecting mutual growth potential and strengthened economic relations between the two nations.