#PMI-PBA Article 21: Delphi Method:-

The Delphi method is a systematic and qualitative method of forecasting by collecting opinions from a group of experts through several rounds of questions.

It is also known as the estimate-talk-estimate technique (ETE). The Delphi method relies on experts who are knowledgeable about a certain topic so they can forecast the outcome of future scenarios, predict the likelihood of an event, or reach a consensus about a particular topic.

#Delphi Method Process:-

1. Identify the issue and objective:

It is important to define the issue you are trying to solve and what you want to achieve by using the Delphi method. Make sure that you know what you are trying to forecast.

2. Choose a group of experts and a facilitator:

The experts can be individuals who are internal or external to the organization. The facilitator should take a neutral position and be someone with experience with research and data collection.

3. Round one questionnaire:

The facilitator provides the first questionnaire for the experts. The type of questions in round one are usually open-ended, as it allows experts to brainstorm their ideas. The facilitator collects all the answers from the questionnaire and hands out a summary report of answers to the experts. In the summary report, the experts’ identities remain anonymous to encourage them to state their opinions freely.

4. Round two questionnaire:

The second questionnaire should be created by analyzing the answers that you observe from the first round. Identify any similarities between answers and eliminate irrelevant content, so the second questionnaire can go in the direction where there is consensus within the experts.

When the experts answer the second questionnaire, their opinions may remain the same, or they may change their opinions after reading the summary report from the first round and understanding the other experts’ opinions. After the completion of the second questionnaire, the facilitator hands out a second summary report of answers to the experts.

5. Round three questionnaire:

Proceed to the third round with the same idea as the second round. The third questionnaire should be created by analyzing answers from the second questionnaire. The experts will answer the third questionnaire based on their opinions from the summary report of answers in the second round.

You may continue to go through additional rounds of questionnaires or choose to stop here if you feel like you’ve reached enough consensus between the experts, and all their forecasts agree with each other.

#Key Takeaways:-

1. The Delphi method is a process used to arrive at a group opinion or decision by surveying a panel of experts.

2. Experts respond to several rounds of questionnaires, and the responses are aggregated and shared with the group after each round.

3. The experts can adjust their answers each round, based on how they interpret the "group response" provided to them.

4. The ultimate result is meant to be a true consensus of what the group thinks.