Plot Twist After Tin Bear Rally

Yup! Padme looked shock in the image above from Star Wars Attack of the clones.

The last time we posted an article on tin, we were harping about the potential Bear Rally which is playing out at the moment. You can check that article here on LinkedIn.

But now, the plot-twist here is, this Bear Rally could run out of fuel.

Needless to say, nothing here should be construed as trading advice but the visualisation in the above monthly chart is aim to lay out as clearly as possible the potential overhead resistance zone, when to get out of the setup if the price crossed above $30,000 per tonne and how to stay on the trend until it reach the downside target if things do work out.

In the very short-term, our preferred scenario is for LME tin price to work its way higher first towards the pink horizontal bar which we have outlined above as a potential lower high. This is assuming that the previous price structure repeats and there is a very clear risk to reward setup here.

As such, we are waiting for price to come up to that pink horizontal bar and watch how LME tin price reacts.

There is a technical gap that appeared on August 4, 2023 at $28,200 per tonne which is of interest. Coincidentally, this is the price level where we anticipate some sort of reactions to emerge, ideally from the technical sellers.

Why are we short-term bullish?

• Indonesia presidential election likely to bring further uncertainty over its ability to export - work plan approvals have been delayed.
• Myanmar Man Maw mine claimed that it can restart after Lunar New Year. But current political climate in Myanmar meant that it will take time for any mining operation to get back into full scale.
• China tin ores import over the coming months are set to look poor - fuelling supply concern even though overall demand is tepid.
• LME funds positioning has turned net long after 3 months of short.
• Unfilled technical gap acting as a magnet

If you find this analysis/article interesting and useful, please hit that like button and follow me on LinkedIn to get other instalments. Or head to Fastmarkets.com and my colleagues Afzaal Mir , Monet Mitchell and Alistair Cheetham are happy to chat and demo on our product offerings.

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