PLMR's CEO and Founder, Kevin Craig's Analysis on Spring Budget 2023

To read the full PLMR analysis of yesterday’s Budget click here.

For me, one of the biggest take aways from yesterday in the British House of Commons is confirmation that Labour is going to have to continue to deal with concerted attempts by Jeremy Hunt and Rishi Sunak?to steal its policies.??

On Tuesday night former Conservative Cabinet Member Jacob Rees Mogg asked me on TV how did I think it was going for the Prime Minister??I told him here that the Conservatives were showing a ongoing tendency to steal Labour’s policies. And so it came to pass yet again in yesterday’s Budget.

Whether it is the creation of GB Nuclear and green energy, a huge focus on childcare policies,?or an extension of cuts to fuel duties – yesterday’s Budget featured them and all of these propositions echo or copy ideas first put forward by the Labour Party.?As Keir Starmer rightly pointed out in the House of Commons yesterday, over the past couple of years Labour has been setting the policy agenda. Whilst the Conservatives were fighting amongst themselves and (as Jacob Rees Mogg told me) changing Prime Ministers as often as others change their trousers, Labour led on policy to tackle energy bills and the cost of living crisis.?Energy price guarantees? Windfall tax? Prepayment metre policy change? All areas where the Opposition Party led the way for the Government to subsequently follow.

But none of that will matter at the next General Election. Voters have (or can be made to have) short memories. In Jeremy Hunt and Rishi Sunak, the Conservative Party (after a few false starts that have cost many people a lot of money and pain) have put forward their most plausible team to try and get voters to forget about the length of time the Conservatives have led the country.

The Devil You Know V Time for Change.?That’s what the election choice will be in 2024/ 2025.

The Conservative Party will continue to try to take back the centre ground whilst the Right of the Conservative Party has no choice but to go along with it, knowing their further dissent and internal warfare will lead to huge electoral losses.??You don’t have to agree with Jeremy Hunt to say that he is a very good and plausible communicator. There is no doubt about where he and the Prime Minister think this election can be won:?from the Centre with a ruthless focus on the Red Wall seats (also a huge part of yesterday’s Budget).???The pensions policy is the standout error in the Budget and will unravel shortly I predict. (It does open up huge inheritance tax avoidance opportunities and to the tiny minority on the highest of incomes is a massive slice of free money if not amended.?By all means do something specific for highly paid doctors/ key public servants).

I cannot wait to see how the polls look in a few week’s time to see if any of these past few weeks (which have in many ways been good for the Government) cut through. Keir Starmer has brought the Labour Party off the floor and has done a sensational job to date. He has made Labour trusted when many thought he had no chance. What he has done is remarkable. It’s actually a compliment to him that the Government are so keen to lift so many policies.

So I very much hope that he keep’s Labour’s final retail offer to the country under wraps as long as possible. As Johnny Reynolds said last night on BBC Newsnight, there was a lot of policy theft in the House of Commons yesterday. The more Labour offers up, the most the Chancellor and PM will steal.?I don’t think Keir Starmer is going to make it easy for the Conservatives to keep doing this and if he wants to win, which he does, then he is well advised to hold back the final offer as long as possible.