Plenty of Subsidies, But No Takers: Hydrogen Trucks

Johnny, what about hydrogen then?

That's not going to happen for trucks. The reason? Money!

I love technology ????. I believe that with technology, we can make the world a bit more beautiful and better for all of us tomorrow. I help transport entrepreneurs transition to electric trucks. Specifically, battery-electric trucks. Right now, I don't see the viability in hydrogen-electric trucks, even though it's also a beautiful technology!

More expensive to purchase than diesel

Both battery-electric and hydrogen-electric trucks are significantly more expensive to purchase than a diesel truck. For an electric truck, expect a factor of 3 times the price of a diesel. The price of a hydrogen truck is even higher. In the transport industry, we hardly make any money. With a 2% margin, every penny counts. Hard work for little reward.

Recovering the costs through lower energy expenses We need to recover that higher investment partly by realizing savings on energy costs. For a diesel truck: €120,000 purchase cost. We drive 100,000 kilometers per year with a consumption of 25 liters per 100km. So, we use 25,000 liters of diesel per truck annually. Let's say a liter of diesel costs €1.50. That means we spend €37,500 on diesel annually. If we use the truck for 6 years, the total diesel costs are €225,000. Right! Over €100,000 more than the purchase price of the vehicle.

Fuel costs are therefore a significant part of the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). The total costs of a truck during its operational life.

Because electric trucks, and certainly hydrogen trucks, have a higher purchase price, we'll have to recover that difference mainly through energy costs. I'll try to explain that in this piece.

The simple calculation

But I'll try to explain it a bit more complicated than how I normally do. Normally, I would say, the consumption of a truck is:

• 0.25 liters of diesel per km
• 1.42 kWh per km
• 0.0672 kg H2 per km

If we multiply that by the price of the energy unit, we get a price per kilometer:

• 0.25 * €1.50 = €0.375
• 1.42 * €0.24 = €0.34
• 0.0672 * €10 = €0.672

Conclusion: with these energy prices, the battery-electric truck is the cheapest solution when considering energy costs per kilometer.

Hydrogen-electric is by far the most expensive solution. Besides a higher purchase price, you also have to add money per kilometer for the energy.

End of message.

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But above, it might seem like I guessed the consumption.

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Guessing is oversimplifying it.

But that's a bit of a simplification. Because how can you know how much a hydrogen truck consumes? You can't just guess that, can you?

(Get ready for a few minutes of reading and calculation)

No, guessing doesn't seem wise. But of course, we don't have to guess, as we can simply calculate it. I understand that this might not be everyday knowledge for everyone, so I'll try to explain it here as simply as possible.

Let's do the math!

Let's start with a diesel truck. Did you know that there's approximately 10.45 kWh in 1 liter of diesel? From each liter of diesel, only about 40.4% eventually reaches the wheels as power. The vast majority is lost in the combustion engine, with the final push being provided by the gearbox and final drive. How much energy from that liter of diesel actually reaches the wheels?

• 10.45 kWh * 40.4% = 4.22 kWh So, each kilowatt-hour at the wheels costs – for diesel -:
• €1.50 / 4.22 kWh = €0.355 per kWh

Per kWh at the wheels, the same number of meters

The beauty of this number is...

We can now compare this with an electric or hydrogen truck. It doesn't matter how many meters we can drive with that kWh. Whether we're driving uphill, downhill, against the wind, or with the wind. For each kWh at the wheels, we drive exactly the same number of meters with a diesel, battery-electric, or hydrogen-electric truck.

How many meters on 1 kWh at the wheels?

Just for fun, we can also quickly and simply calculate how many meters we exactly drive on 1 kWh. This calculation is now easier than you might think. Remember when we said that you can drive 4 kilometers on 1 liter of diesel.

• 4.22 kWh / 4 kilometers = 1.055 kWh
• 1 km = 1.055
• 1,000 meters / 1.055 = 948 meters

So, to cover one kilometer, we need to ensure that 1.055 kWh reaches the wheels. With 1 kWh of energy at those wheels, we drive - in this case - 948 meters.

So, what does one kilometer of diesel cost?

Great! We now know how many kWh (at the wheels) we need and what that costs:

• 1.055 kWh
• 1.055 kWh * €0.355 = €0.375 per kilometer (but we already knew that secretly)

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Let's get back to our comparison.

We know that 1.055 kWh is needed at the wheels. Then we can also calculate how many kWh we need to put into the drivetrain with a different "fuel" to achieve the same result.

Let's start with a battery-electric truck. How efficient is its drivetrain? I'm assuming the following figures.... Correct me if I'm wrong:

• Inverter + eMotor: 85%
• Internal battery resistance: 97%
• Gearbox: 97%
• Final drive: 98%

When you multiply these figures together, you get 78.38%.

So, for every 10 kWh you put into the electric truck, about 7.838 kWh ends up at the wheels. But - to be fair - there are also some losses when charging the eTruck. Let's say a 5% loss, so 95% efficiency. This means the figure ultimately becomes 74.46%. For every 10 kWh you purchase, approximately 7.446 kWh ends up at the wheels.

Now let's make it (even more) mathematical.

Gross energy consumption

If I know that I need 1.055 kWh at the wheels, and the drivetrain efficiency is 40.4%, I can also calculate what my gross energy consumption is:

• 1.055 / 0.404 = 2.61 kWh gross

Let's double-check if that's correct. Remember that this truck has a 1-to-4 ratio? That 2.61 kWh gross is needed for 1 kilometer. But on one liter of diesel, we 'actually' drive 4 kilometers. Let's check if the gross energy consumption matches up:

• 2.61 kWh gross * 4 kilometers = 10.45 kWh

Hey! That's correct. Because approximately 10.45 kWh of energy is in one liter.

There's approximately 10.45 kWh of energy in one liter of diesel.

Now that we're sure this calculation is correct, we can do the same for battery-electric and hydrogen-electric. All three forms of propulsion require 1.055 kWh at the wheels to drive exactly 1 kilometer. However, the drivetrains differ in their efficiency:

• Diesel: 40.4%
• Battery-electric: 74.46% (including charging losses)
• Hydrogen-electric: ......

Efficiency of hydrogen-electric Well, hydrogen-electric. How efficient is that drivetrain? A hydrogen-electric truck essentially uses the same drivetrain as the battery-electric one. From back to front:

• Final drive
• Gearbox
• eMotor
• Inverter
• Battery

But we add one extra component:

• Fuel cell

In essence, the fuel cell charges the battery, from which the motor draws its energy. But let's assume that there are no energy losses for charging the battery, because the eMotor can tap its energy directly from the fuel cell. Then you could say that the drivetrain is 78.38% efficient. But then we also need to account for the efficiency of the fuel cell. Let's give the fuel cell a 60% efficiency.

• 60% * 78.38% = 47.028%

(I think 57.5% is closer to reality)

Ah! Now we're getting somewhere!

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Gross Energy Consumption; Different Powertrains

?Now we can calculate the gross energy consumption of the different types of powertrains:

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Diesel: 1.055 kWh / 0.404 = 2.61 kWh

Battery-electric: 1.055 kWh / 0.7446 = 1.42 kWh

Hydrogen-electric: 1.055 kWh / 0.47028 = 2.24 kWh

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In transport, we often talk about 'efficiency', but what we really mean is 'costs'. In road transport, margins are razor-thin, so we closely manage costs. Fortunately, we can now compare them well. For diesel, we've already calculated this, but let's do it again just to be sure:

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Then the costs.....

€1.50 per liter / 10.45 kWh * 2.61 kWh = € 0.375

For battery-electric, it's easy to calculate what one kWh should cost at maximum to have an equal price per kilometer:

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€ 0.375 / 1.42 kWh * 1 kWh = € 0.264

To make money per kilometer, the price per kWh must be € 0.264 or lower. Anything above that costs money per kilometer.

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Let's now calculate this for hydrogen-electric:

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€ 0.375 / 2.24 kWh * 33.33 kWh = € 5.58

So, if one kilogram of hydrogen at the pump costs €5.58 or less, you can save costs. Anything above that costs you money.

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You might wonder why I multiplied by 33.33 kWh in the formula? That's because there's 33.33 kWh of energy in one kilogram of hydrogen.

Hydrogen-electric Truck Consumption

We can also do something else that I'm interested in. We can also calculate the consumption of the hydrogen truck. For the battery-electric truck, we've seen that it consumes 1.42 kWh per kilometer including charging losses, and 1.346 kWh per kilometer if you exclude charging losses. If the hydrogen-electric truck consumes 2.24 kWh per kilometer, that's equivalent to:

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2.24 kWh / 33.33 kWh = 0.0672 kg per kilometer

0.0672 kg per kilometer, or 6.72 kg per 100 km, or traditionally speaking:

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1 / 0.0672 = 14.88 kilometers

So, we can say that this hydrogen truck can drive approximately 15 kilometers on 1 kilogram of hydrogen. Note, this is a somewhat optimistic calculation, assuming 60% fuel cell efficiency and no charging losses of 5%.

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To Conclude: Cost of Energy per Kilometer

And then we're just about done. We've calculated the consumption of all trucks, and we also know the maximum costs for one kWh of electricity and one kg of hydrogen, to compete with the diesel price.

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I have nothing against hydrogen. Really. In fact, I drove a Toyota Mirai myself for a year with complete satisfaction. 20,000 kilometers across the Netherlands, with only 4 gas stations. I've been there, I've done that!

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Still, I don't rate the chances for hydrogen in heavy road transport that high. Why not? You can guess: it simply costs too much money. I'll be the first to admit my mistake. In fact, I'm ready to do it now:

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If hydrogen costs €3 (ex VAT) or less at the pump, we'll all switch to hydrogen!

The problem is:

Hydrogen doesn't cost €3 at the pump.

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Even Mercedes-Benz, who want to sell H2 trucks, see the challenge in the cost of H2: €4 per kilogram (at the pump).

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Amsterdam Hydrogen Prices

Last week, I was in Amsterdam and visited two hydrogen filling stations to check the prices:

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·????? €19.75 ex VAT (€25 incl)

·????? €18.17 ex VAT (€23 incl)

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While two years ago, I could fill up for €12.50 (incl). That's a movement in the wrong direction!

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Battery-electric and hydrogen-electric: Competitors

Furthermore, we've just calculated the price that competes with diesel. We haven't looked at the competition with battery-electric yet. Because people advocating for hydrogen trucks want me to believe that hydrogen-electric and battery-electric can coexist just fine. That's an idea I could have lived with 5 years ago. However, the world has changed. Battery technology has rapidly evolved, and long-distance trucks with a range of 800 km are no longer impossible.

And if the technology could do both, transport companies will opt for the cheapest solution! To make it easier for you, I've also calculated what one kWh and one kg of H2 should cost to break even on energy costs (compared to diesel).

But first, we need to consider the following. Because we're discussing hydrogen-electric trucks, we're focusing on long-distance work. In this scenario, a regeneration potential of approximately 10% can be expected. This means that the consumption - of both the battery-electric and the hydrogen-electric truck - is 10% lower. This automatically implies that the mentioned amounts in the table should also be 10% lower.

This yields the following values:

·????? Diesel: 0.25 liters per km

·????? Battery: 1.278 kWh per km

·????? Hydrogen: 0.06048 per km

Which gives us the this price comparison table:

Final Conclusion

Hydrogen for heavy-duty road transport is currently far too expensive. If you ask me about the prospects of hydrogen-electric trucks, I would say: not interesting for the next 10 years. Unless there is an unforeseen technological development that drastically reduces the price of a kilogram of hydrogen, or fuel cell efficiency improves much faster and more significantly than what we currently anticipate.

https://www.infrasite.nl/wegen/2023/09/25/subsidie-van-e125-miljoen-voor-waterstof-trucks-busjes-en-stations/

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And those subsidies?

Unfortunately, no one will take advantage of them. Transport companies are smart, but not foolish.

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