The Players Championship '22!

As the PGA Tour's Floridian swing continues, one of the strongest fields in Golf will assemble at Ponte Vedra Beach in the hopes of etching their name into the history books at this, their flagship event.

Venue: TPC Sawgrass

Architect: Pete Dye

Course Details: Par 72 - 7,189 yards

Course History & Design

Built in 1980 with one purpose in mind, the Stadium Course at Sawgrass has played tournament host since 1982. Dye's nicely balanced course has no consecutive holes playing in the same direction. Sub-air systems are installed on all greens and generally, they're set to play plenty fast at around about 13 on the stimpmeter.

Whilst last week's tough test around Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill hosts one of if not the longest par-3 average on tour, the par 3s this week average some of the shortest. With water in play on 17 of the 18 holes, keeping the ball in play is obviously going to be key to success, as will finding Greens in Regulation.

Tournament History:

Names like Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson, Si Woo Kim, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Martin Kaymer and Tiger Woods make up the list of past 8 champions from 2013-2021 (2020 was abandoned due to Covid-19 after Round 1)

However, as you can see from that list - Dye's course does not suit any single type of player. Take 2021 for example, Justin Thomas took home the top prize but, next in was Lee Westwood, a completely different type of player.

Superstars like McIlroy, Matsuyama, Lowry, Fleetwood and Casey have as many T10's as they do missed cuts over the last few years so, landing on any single player with conviction is difficult although, not impossible. This is a tournament where all the big boys want to win. The prestige of being a Players Champion can make a career and that's evermore evident, in simple ways. The field strength here was the 4th highest in 2021, behind only the PGA and Open Championships as well as the US Open.

There's a reason I'm putting out my thoughts today, as I tend to for other major tournaments and there's many reasons as to why The Players is often described as the 5th major. All of those I hope I've set out above.

Note: The only top-100 players not scheduled to play are the injured Tiger Woods, Harris English and Steve Stricker as well as Phil Mickelson for .. some reason. Bryson DeChambeau has also pulled out, citing the same wrist injury that seems to be plaguing him for weeks now.

Now that you've got an idea of the design, recent history & the level of prestige The Players Championship carries - what does it all mean?

Well, let's get into it. For those of you who don't subscribe too closely to stats and numbers, I'll try to keep this light. For those of you who love getting amongst the weeds to find some value as a bettor or otherwise - here we go.

From a bettor's perspective, you can see the importance placed upon this week - books are competing for market share. Each-way terms have been increased from the usual 5-8 places right up to between 8 and 11 places. Value, value, value.

Thinner margins are being taken (in some cases) and the number of market types available to bet on for the week, has been amped right up. This is no dry run for the Major season, this is the real beginning of it all.

Key stats for the week:

Whilst Driving Distance is often the topic on conversation week-to-week, here, Driving Accuracy is slightly more important in my opinion. There's no real penalty for being in the rough however, setting up the right angles for approach shots is of huge importance if a player is to avoid bogeys.

The biggest key here comes with Strokes Gained: Approach. The tiny greens at the Stadium Course, a common feature for Pete Dye courses, need to be hit and players who find more Greens in Regulation will find themselves in prime position come the weekend. The avg SG per round of Top 5 finishers (1.17) comes in as just under 2.5 times more important than SG:OTT (0.48) of the same Top 5 finishers per round.

To go along hand-in-hand with that, SG: Ball Striking is hugely important, as are Strokes Gained: Short Game. If you're going to miss the green (which will happen) it's simple; you better be ready, willing and able to scramble and avoid the big numbers.

With all this in mind, who do I think are the men to watch? Often I'd be loathe to make selections and send them out in this manner but, if you made it this far into my ramblings - you surely deserve the chance to either laugh at me for rotten picks or (and preferably) enjoy a nice week alongside me.

Daniel Berger 33/1 w/Will Hill - Yes yes, I know, he collapsed on Sunday to throw away another win on Tour which allowed Sepp Straka to take one home but, Berger is an elite Ball Striker who's approach stats are top of the Tour. If we take his last 50 rounds on Tour and compare them to everyone else's, he's 1st on Approach taking the title from Collin Morikawa, another who can't go without mention for the week but at the prices, I'll take a shot on Berger who has no missed cuts in last 5 appearances here and two Top 10's in that span to boot.

Brooks Koepka 40/1 General - When the going gets tough, Brooks Koepka shines. Having played most of last year injured and dealing with a bad knee, this time around he seems to be trending nicely. Few players enjoy Pete Dye courses as much as Brooks and with two Top 20's and no missed cuts here in his last 5 outings, the generally available 40/1 mark looks pretty tasty. We've all seen how Brooks performs when it comes to majors, and this is one of those in all but official title. It's slightly off-putting that he's had 2 missed cuts in last 4 outings but between those he's racked up a T3 and T16 but again, he'll be 100% engaged and focused this week.

Matthew Fitzpatrick 40/1 w/Bet365 - An impressive run of form at present with three Top 10's from his last 3 starts, Fitz comes in, in great shape. His ability to grind it out will come in handy here, especially if the conditions really get nasty but what caught my eye is not only that he's Top 5 for both SG: Putting and SG: Short Game on Pete Dye designs but the fact he's improved his result each year for the last 3 at Sawgrass, culminating in a Top 10 last year.

Shane Lowry 45/1 w/Bet365 - Lowry was very impressive in his recent run at the Honda Classic, but for a deluge of rain as he was putting on 17, he might well have come away with the trophy. Few players are better in "Open Championship" style conditions than the former Champion golfer and the forecast for this week is not pretty. Throw in a couple of decent finishes here in the last few years with some strong early form this season and you might just have a recipe for success.

Brian Harman 125/1 General - A little bit out of left field for those of you who might not be massive Golf fans but, Harman boasts some seriously impressive stats on Pete Dye courses over the last few years. In 25 rounds on Pete Dye courses in the last 2 years, he ranks only behind Abraham Ancer and Bryson DeChambeau in Total Strokes Gained. An 8th and a 3rd place finish in his last two outings at TPC Sawgrass respectively are very encouraging and at the price, there's some serious value in the left handed player!

Honorable mention out to Collin Morikawa, who is currently towards the top of the PGA Tour (I had to double check this) putting stats for 2022. If that clicks again this week, it might simply be over for everyone else. Morikawa has the ability to just lock in when it comes to the big ones and he's certainly the hottest golfer of the last 18 months when it comes to big titles. Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama another two that catch the eye but with everything factored in, I couldn't warrant taking them over some of the others mentioned above. Not to bring up the fact that, no one has ever managed to defend here. Apologies JT.

If you're having a bet this week - please do so responsibly!

Enjoy the week to come and who knows, with a bit of luck, maybe the winner's name is somewhere above! I hope to be back perhaps at the midway point/before the final round with an update so keep an eye out.

Let's have a damn week.