Play It Right

If you’ve ever built a business, launched a product, or watched an industry evolve, you know that timing is everything.

But here’s the thing. Timing isn’t luck.

It’s about understanding cycles. Every industry, market, and opportunity moves through a predictable pattern. The best entrepreneurs and business leaders don’t just react to change. They anticipate it and make their move at the right time.

Think about it like surfing. If you paddle too early, you waste energy and go nowhere. If you paddle too late, the wave crashes over you. But if you time it right…you ride the wave.

So, where is your industry right now? And are you making the right move?

Let’s walk through the five stages of business cycles and what you should do at each one.

1?? The Comfort Zone – When Giants Rule the Land

At this stage, the market is locked down. A few big players dominate everything. They’ve been around for decades, they control supply chains, and they set the rules.

Smaller players? They exist, but they’re barely a blip on the radar.

?? Think of the mobile phone industry in the early 2000s. It was all about Nokia, Motorola, and BlackBerry. They owned the market, controlled distribution, and dictated what mobile phones looked like.

The problem? Big companies get comfortable. They stop innovating and assume nothing will change.

What should you do?

? If you’re a new business, this is the best time to START. The giants won’t notice you yet. Find the gap they’re too slow or big to fill, and plant your flag there. Apple did that in 2007, launching the iPhone when the market still thought physical keyboards were the future.

2?? The Shake-Up – When the Underdogs Rise

Then, something shifts.

Maybe consumer frustration builds, a new technology emerges, or the old guard just isn’t delivering what people want anymore.

Suddenly, small challengers start making noise.

?? Think of Tesla in the early 2010s. Legacy car manufacturers weren’t interested in electric vehicles. They dismissed it as a niche market. Tesla leaned in, creating a product people wanted and made electric cars desirable.

What should you do?

? If you’re a challenger, this is the best time to SCALE. Be bold. Double down on your unique identity. Find your people and give them a reason to follow you.

This is when early believers become loyal customers, and big brands start to worry.

3?? The Gold Rush – When Everyone Wants In

By now, the challengers have gained traction. The market is shifting, and the money starts flowing.

?? Think of the plant-based food industry in the late 2010s. Brands like Beyond Meat and Oatly exploded as the demand for alternatives to meat and dairy surged. Investors threw money into the sector. Every major food brand scrambled to launch a plant-based product.

At this stage, venture capitalists invest, and big companies acquire smaller ones. Everyone wants a piece of the action.

But here’s the catch: not all businesses will survive this stage. Many will take on too much funding, scale too fast, or fail to stand out in the noise.

What should you do?

? If you want to exit, this is the best time to SELL. ? If you’re taking an investment, choose wisely.

Money is easy to find right now, but who you take it from matters more than ever.

4?? The Fight for Survival – When the Market Gets Brutal

Then, reality hits.

The hype fades. The market is crowded with competitors. Customer acquisition costs skyrocket. Discounts get deeper. Advertising spending goes through the roof.

?? Think of the streaming wars in the 2020s. Once the dominant player, Netflix suddenly found itself battling Disney+, Apple TV, Amazon Prime, HBO Max, and dozens of others. Prices dropped, content costs soared, and companies started bleeding money.

At this stage, it’s no longer about rapid growth but survival.

What should you do?

? If you’ve made it this far, focus on DEFENDING your position. ? Customer retention is everything. Keep your audience engaged and loyal. ? Cut unnecessary costs. Now is not the time for reckless expansion.

Only the strongest will make it to the next phase.

5?? The Clean-Up – When the Dust Settles

Eventually, the cycle resets.

Weaker players go under. Some get acquired. The market stabilises again.

?? Think of the taxi industry. At one point, Uber and Lyft had dozens of global competitors. Some survived, some merged, and others disappeared altogether. A few dominant players remain, and the market has settled into a new norm.

But here’s the exciting part: This is when new opportunities start to emerge.

What should you do?

? If you’re an investor, this is the best time to BUY. ? If you’re an entrepreneur, look for the next significant shift.

The cycle always repeats. And the next wave of disruptors is already ready to start the journey again.

So… Where Is Your Industry Right Now?

Understanding this cycle gives you an unfair advantage.

• If you’re launching a business, start when the big players are asleep.
• If you’re scaling, build a loyal following before the money floods in.
• If you’re looking to sell, know when the market is at its peak.
• If you’re defending your position, outlast your competitors.
• If you’re investing, time it before the next wave hits.

The real question is: Where is YOUR industry right now?

Need any help figuring out your next move?

I help businesses identify their position in the market cycle and build winning strategies to navigate the next stage.

If you want to time your moves strategically, whether you’re looking to launch, scale, defend, or exit, let’s talk.

?? Send me a message or book a free 30-minute discovery call.

Let’s make your next move the right one.

Have a brilliant week!

Dave Rogers – The Business Explorer

For 30 years, I've been using my curiosity to help leaders and businesses make impactful decisions, enabling their businesses to innovate, thrive, and positively contribute to their communities.

Are you looking for a speaker who thinks a little differently? Let’s talk.

Contact me at info@fuelledfitandfiredup.com to find out more.