Play Ball

According to Ted Williams, hitting a baseball is the hardest thing to do in all of sports. Modern physics and advanced technology would suggest that Mr. Williams was correct. Consider for a moment that when a big-league pitcher hurls a fastball, the batter has about 150 milliseconds to decide whether they want to swing. To say they must decide in the blink of an eye, would be grossly inaccurate. They must decide in about 1/3 of the time it takes you to blink. It doesn’t end there. 150 milliseconds seems like an eternity compared to the 10 milliseconds a batter has to make contact while the ball is in the actual hitting zone. To complicate matters just a bit more remember that batters are trying to hit a round baseball, with a round bat squarely. If they misjudge even slightly the ball will dribble foul or pop up for an easy out.

With just a slight understanding of the precision that goes into a hitter’s approach, it can be understood why a success rate of just 30% will land you in the hall of fame. Baseball is a game of small margins. Winning slightly more games than you lose will get you into the playoffs. Throwing 98 mph vs 97 mph can be the difference in the game. The best hitter on the team, and the worst hitter on the team, are often separated by less than just a few hits. Because of these small margins, it is all the more impressive when a player, or a team, blow past the margins. It doesn’t happen often, so when it does, we remember.

In 2001 the Seattle Mariners were on fire. They were on fire for 8 months. In that span they racked up 116 wins. In the 100 plus years of baseball, no team has ever won more games. As a young baseball fan growing up in Seattle this was beyond a dream. We were the center of the baseball world. Then, as quickly as the fire started. It went out. The mariners lost before even reaching the World Series. They have not been back to the playoffs in 21 years. The longest drought in all of American sports. While there was no trophy to hoist, we still have that record though. The most wins of any team. Ever.

There are two sides to that record. If we track who won the most games, then we must also know who had the worst season in history. That distinction is owned by a team that no longer exists. The 1916 Philadelphia Athletics. What makes the story of the Athletics so unique, is that two years prior, they had been the best team in baseball. Even more impressive, this was a team that had won the World Series in 1910, 1911, and 1913. How could they fall so far, so fast. The answer is simple. Connie Mack.

Connie Mack was the manager of the Athletics since the team’s inception in 1901. He had been a player prior to coaching, and by most all accounts, he was an excellent coach. He led the team to league championships in 6 of his first 13 years. So good were they at their height, that many assumed the 1914 World Series was a foregone conclusion. The Boston Braves, who had just barely managed to make the playoffs, had no chance. When Mack gave one of his pitchers a week off to scout the Braves, he went on vacation instead. Upon returning to Philadelphia, he told Mack simply, “what’s the point”.

That World Series did not go as planned for the Athletics. The Boston Braves swept them in four games. Philadelphia only managed to hold a lead for on inning out of the 36 they played. Boston did not just win. They Dominated the Athletics. So much so, that Connie Mack became suspicious. He knew his team was better. He knew his players were more experienced. There could only be one explanation for how they had lost this badly. They had done it on purpose. While he had no evidence to support his belief, Mack was adamant that his players must have thrown the series in order to collect big payouts from sports bookies. In response, he quickly traded away his best players. Five of whom would go on to the baseball hall of fame. He absolutely gutted his roster, cleaning house of the players who had betrayed him.

History would show later that Mack was wrong. None of his players had been bought off. None of them had accepted bribes. They had simply been outplayed. The decision to trust his instinct had been wrong. The decision to liquidate his roster proved to be disastrous. The next year his team lost 109 games. Then in 1916 they set the all-time low with a record of 36-117. It would be a full ten years before the Athletics were relevant again.

Unless you live in a cave, you know that the market is dropping. If you look at your portfolio, you most likely have some stocks and funds that have been decimated this year. Investments that in years past have always done well for you. They may have averaged well over normal market returns and paid you handsomely. But now, they are dropping like rocks. Learn from what Connie Mack did. Even your best investments lose sometimes. Well diversified, quality portfolios still have downturns. Had Mack been patient, and held onto his players, they likely would have contended for the titled for years to come. But because he panicked, and sold out, it took ten years for the team to get back where they were.