PLATEAU 2023: ‘IT'S THE ECONOMY STUPID’

The State is of the state is pathetic. We are in a very difficult times in the history of our dear State Plateau and Nigeria of course. The focus of this short article is not Nigeria. The focus is Plateau State. Plateau State is one of the richest states in Nigeria looking at the natural resources the state has. The story of Plateau has deteriorated from the legacies of JD Gomwalk to a sorry state. From the number one tourist destination in Nigeria to almost zero level. From the most visited state to the least visited state in Nigeria. So, what is wrong with Plateau? What is wrong with the Economy of Plateau State?

"The economy, stupid" is a phrase that was coined by James` Carville in 1992. It is often quoted from a televised quip by Carville as “It’s the economy, stupid.” Carville was a strategist in Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign against incumbent George H. W. Bush. His phrase was directed at the campaign's workers and intended as one of three messages for them to focus on. The others were "Change vs. more of the same" and "Don't forget health care."

Clinton's campaign advantageously used the then-prevailing recession in the United States as one of the campaign's means to successfully unseat George H. W. Bush. In March 1991, days after the ground war in Kuwait, 90% of polled Americans approved of President Bush's job performance. [1] Later the next year, Americans' opinions had turned sharply; 64% of polled Americans disapproved of Bush's job performance in August 1992. (www.wikiwand.com).

Now, let’s look at Plateau State as 2023 shows up in the horizon, this year (2022) preceding a national election will as usual be focused more on politicking and campaigns as good governance and development issues take the back seat. It’s no surprise that at the last count in Plateau State at the close of 2021 several posters adorn street-light poles, fences, roundabouts, junctions etc as prospective aspirants for the governorship position jostle for spaces to put up their posters.

Given the share number of posters already and candidates who want to take over Governor Lalong’s job, it is beginning to look like all it takes to be a prospective candidate for the post of governor of Plateau state is to make an agbada or fine suit and get a good photographer to do a photo shoot and pronto a candidate emerges.

Alternatively,?it looks to us that a group of friends might just be discussing in any of the many joints in town as the case usually is on the Plateau and then someone who has been served a fresh round of pepper soup and choice wine as a mark of gratitude might say to the one who ordered the fresh round of servings that , ‘you will be a good governor in?the state’ and after hearing this, the persons constitutes them into a committee and the next thing that happens are posters on the streets. The approach to emergence of prospective candidates for governorship positions in Plateau state is becoming a theatre of the absurd.

It’s strange that people whose names have never been heard, nor do they seem to have shared in the pains and daily struggles of the people are all out deceiving the poor with gifts and donations in order to gain quick credibility to run for offices. Strangely also is the fact that, the same persons who do not seem to have felt the pulse of the mass of poor people in the state nor associated with any serious community development activity in the state are also showing up.?There are also these categories of persons whose names have not been heard as haven grown any business in the state nor been associated with any other constructive issue but are all out with their posters on various streets in Jos testing the waters.

What is clear to some of us is that the reason there are all manner of characters showing up on posters in Jos is because they might not have sat down with a clear-headed team to do a diagnostic of the economy of the state and reflect on the data.

The prospective candidates do not seem to realize that the issue with the Plateau state elections 2023 as James Carville is the ‘Economy Stupid! Let’s look at the data drawing extensively from the “State of States report” (2021) (BudgIT). Plateau state is 18th out of 36 states in terms of fiscal performance in 2021. What does this mean in real terms?

In terms of Revenue, the state depends 73.98% on Federal Allocations with Internally generated revenue at 26.02%. The implication is that without Federal Allocations at this rate the state is not sustainable. So, if anything happens to stop the Federal subvention from coming, the State will collapse.

The operating expenses in 2021 for Plateau state was 71.48% while the capital expenditure was 28. 52%. Though the state worked at reducing the operating expenses in 2021, the reduction is minimal and not sufficient to invest in the development of infrastructure which supports economic development.

Plateau state debt profile is worrisome with domestic debt at N137.78billion and foreign debt at $37.9million. Total debt analysis for the State shows a debt growth of 27.70% (2016-2020) with a debt size of 13th out of 36 states. The implication of the above debt profile is that the state is 14th most indebted in terms of total debt and 13th most indebted in terms of foreign debt among the states in Nigeria. Poverty rate in Plateau state is currently at 50.05%, unemployment and underdevelopment are at 52.74% and the recommended job creation figure is 85,388 jobs.

What do these figures imply? It is simply that there is no more free lunch rather what is required is competency in economic statecraft that steers Plateau state from current path to sustainability.?This does not come by wishful thinking, it doesn’t come by printing of posters or laying of hands by some Pastors, it doesn’t come by just being motivated to contest election. This honestly requires hard solid innovative thinking, design thinking/critical thinking and coherent plans and strategies coming together with a competent team not drawn from the ranks of hangers on who are “compensated because they are said to have worked and delivered a constituency the governor’ and ‘so monkey must not work for baboon to chop! No, going that way has been of our major problems on the Plateau where [S1]?[S2]?people without competence are appointed because they delivered a constituency, it doesn’t matter whether they are qualified or not. This is totally wrong, and it is anti development. ?

How Can Plateau People begin to dig their way out of the current pit?

A quick culture, structure and systems analysis reveals that certain foundations need to be laid to enable Plateau state take that turn and begin to drive development. We are not talking about the various development sectors yet but the key first principles that are required to drive the economy of the state. It is clear for those who have lived in this city for long that the ‘Spirit of the city’ of Jos is dead and needs to be revived. Jos the capital needs a renewal, a refreshing that enables it to recapture the culture that made it a destination in times past.

As an administrative city, Jos is 106 years old (1915-2021). It was made the administrative city like similar cities for instance Enugu in 1915. In 2015, the city of Jos missed a historical milestone to mark its centenary which provided a platform for renewal of the city and indeed the state. Unfortunately, a lack of understanding created a situation where this opportunity was missed. A centenary is a double jubilee. The Jubilee is like a double-edged sword. Those with understanding leverage on it leading to rebirth. Other who do not have this understanding ignore it and continue to sink deeper into underdevelopment as a city, community or nation and eventually die literally. Jos requires a rebranding that creates conditions for people to come and spend money in the city and state.

Plateau state needs to work on its structures and systems of governance. Some persons have argued that this is difficult because of the crisis in the state. This excuse of crisis as an impediment to growth is pedestrian and lacks merit, take Kaduna state for instance. It is a state more unsafe and conflict prone than Jos and Plateau state but in rejigging its structures, systems and policies in 2015, between that year and 2020, Kaduna attracted a Foreign Investment of $800m and expects $2.1bn pledges before 2023(https://www.blueprint.ng/kaduna-attracted-800m-investment-expects-2-1bn-pledges-since-2015-el-rufai/).

What this tells us is that there are certain things Kaduna state is doing to its structures, systems and policies that Plateau state needs to learn from. Its time for prospective candidates in Plateau state to sit, think and roll up their sleeves in ‘war rooms with competent teams working on a clear-headed plan, its not time for blind ambition.

The Next time you see someone on the street putting out a poster as a candidate tell him that ‘IT IS ABOUT THE ECONOMY, STUPID!

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