PLANNING THE VISITOR ECONOMY FUTURE POST QUARANTINE

More Questions than Answers

Blog First Posted 15 April 2020

Another question filled, very long, Point of View Rant on Mostly Tourism

Originally I was thinking that by the first big kick off the summer holiday, May 24th, this craziness would be done. With the nice weather we’d be raring to get out and about; up to the cabin, on the water with friends, out to a concert or grab a meal on a restaurant deck.

But the forecasts released are grim. We’re told the COVID-19 pandemic will be with us this summer. So will government restrictions as we try to limit the number of hospitalizations, infections and deaths. Now my hope is fading.

At best it looks like it might be the July 1st Memorial Day holiday before we’ll be allowed outside to do non-essential things. I’m still, at heart, an optimist, so I don’t believe this is The Rapture. Our quarantine has to end some time soon.

C-19 has reinforced the reality that we are a connected society, closely interdependent and everyone’s actions have global consequences. This pandemic’s Patient Zero proves that human behaviours are not separate, even from animals that surround us. This disruptive global infection spilled over into humans from animals! That shows a scary level of connectivity. For god sake‘s a tiger at the Bronx zoo was infected. (What a weird contact trace that must have been, or maybe the answer is simple and explained in the outtakes of ‘Tiger King’). So if that is true and this is not the work of an evil scientist, it confirms that we are all in this together.

As we are still at the start of this (as we hear everyday) when will it be not taboo to start conversations together that look past the short term health crisis and into long term economic ramifications.

If another person compares our situation to the crowd in Wuhan and declares, ‘We don’t have it that bad. At least we weren’t forced into our houses at the point of a gun and kept there by the point of a welding rod!’, I’m going to cry.

It is not all that bad here, that’s why we choose to live here. Let’s believe that expectations of how our society makes decisions and accepts actions, are a good bit different than those living within an oppressive police state like China.

Now Time for the Visitor Economy questions:

It's fair to say all-hands understand that the safety and prosperity of our people is interwoven within a purposeful, well-functioning, stable economy.

I’ve prided myself as a realist (maybe by the end of these rants I’ll be a surrealist) and the new adage I’m living with now is ‘Whatever you are going through or whatever is going through you, in time, it too will pass! So the big realistic question I’m asking myself is; Will Tourism will be permitted in the near term? If so, HOW?

I’m asking this while realizing most people’s near term travel plans entail trying to get from the kitchen to the basement in hope that their home office hasn’t been messed up by the kids.

Listening to political signals being sent from other provinces it sounds like it is possible that our fellow Canadians will be able to recreate in the open and in groups larger than five by July 1st. It is clear what from what’s been said by our federal government and from talking to colleagues across the country, that this pandemic is quite different in different parts of our nation.

My friends in Upper Canada are working from home like all of us, but they seem to have very different views regarding getting back to outside work timelines. Even adjusting for regional disparity and their culture of accomplishment, is Canada at such diverse stages of this epidemic that NL is months behind getting back to work versus just weeks?

Is this why invoking the emergency measure act nationally has been floated? Will all citizens be placed in the same boat and the varied signals our provinces are sending, regarding their specific economic rebound tactics, be for nought if we must stay inside as nation?

Will we have overlapping travel bans or one cohesive restriction that covers all bases? Who knows. 

Are different parts of the country going to revive Tourism in different ways and at different times? I think so. 

Will various elected officials be at odds with this decisions? For sure.

But responding with equity might be crucial for the industry’s survival as residential markets will be the rising tide that floats all our boats in the restart phase.

If we ease restrictions province by province what is the result? Will we let in other Canadians into NL if they do not agree to self isolate for 14 days? 

Do we have the right, legally or morally, to stop the movement of our fellow citizens? Will our views on the Come From Aways change if we think they are coming from somewhere that we don’t like?

Our culture has been based and celebrated, by those within and outside our province, as being very open and welcoming to all, especially those caught in plight. How will rural communities look at ‘not from around here’ faces and will they try to block visitors access to the very things that we see as making this province unique?

After all, the last 15 years of all provincial marketing stories basically come down to the theme of ‘We're a great place to live so we're a good place to visit.’

It seems that Research in markets, not Marketing to markets, should take precedence. We need to know our market’s aspirations towards travel, including our residents’ intentions. We must make sure our research efforts are not misaligned so we are not misled. There is a strong thirst for information in most industries to support planning assumptions, because now most are feeling like those circus plate-spinners.

This is a situation that might get worse as we become more nationalist, or regionalist, and draw ourselves in tightly. What is our community’s expectations of visitors? It makes sense that we should be very careful opening borders to countries that have high infection rates of COVID-19. 

To do otherwise would seem to be inviting disaster, but what about our Canadian brethren? Will we support intra provincial border crossings? Will we support ‘Townies’ travelling around Newfoundland? It will be hard for a province with this low population to expect only residents to have the resources available restart that economic driver.

When will we be allowed to travel again is a different question than, when will we feel it is safe to travel again? Both are critical enough to deserve timely answers.

This fear of this illnesses has captured the world’s attention in an unprecedented ways; setting records on Google for searchable words, as the headline in almost all emails received and on the lips of everyone you meet.

COVID concern people will stop travel in the immediate future because of fears of contagions hiding within needed modes of transport, i. e. the airport, the train, the motor coach, the plane, etc.

I know this fear existed before and there are a million invisible things that can kill a person. Sure we all have friends and relatives who travelled to sunny destinations and experienced gastro and other problems. But those ailments are temporary and understood to be part of the package when travelling abroad at resorts or on cruises.

Pre C-19, tourists were more than happy to take the prescribed needles/pills that immune bodies from serious and common illnesses that could be acquired while travelling. We don’t have that medical luxury for this virus, so everyone is counting the days until a laboratory announces it’s COVID-19 solution and its safe to travel again.

To compound matters, tourists are also not travelling because of other anxieties. Concerns regarding losing deposits on flights, accommodations, or their in-destination experiences or activities. They fear the results of a public health announcement that forces closures while in destination or in the worst case scenario, a travel ban preventing them from returning home.

We’ve seen how present health announcements affect traveller’s sentiments but an interesting question to pose is what will OUR sentiments be once the health warnings have been lifted? What will be our sentiment be to receiving travellers? Do we want to be hyper local and only allow domestic movement?

In an industry that has traditionally been very sensory focused, can we now still have that style of operation? How do we dance, sing, or squeeze over and make room for a stranger to join at our table?

We have shown that we adapt quickly. It would have seemed ludicrous in February to shut down our schools or borders, and if you saw someone walking down the street in a dentist mask back then your initial thoughts would have been they were suffering mental illness. Entering a convenience store last month with a (now recommended) face covering would have resulted in a 911 robbery call. We’ve come a long way in a short time.

So can we accept and adapt to a new normal of retail/travel/food services front line workers wearing masks and gloves? If that is what’s needed to make those on both sides of the counter feel safe, then let’s make it happen. If new design for PPE is needed, let get those experienced designers and engineers cracking to come up with something that is functional and maybe even fashionable.

In the spirit of adaptation we will have to accept some of our civil liberties being modified in the name of safety. Our populations will probably have regular temperature scans, and the GPS apps on cell phone allowing monitoring of our movement will most likely be the earliest concessions.

Bigger, societal safety issues will raise questions such as what will happen in cities with narrow streets? Density will be an issue for sure. Where does that leave the uniqueness of downtown St. John’s, who’s unique architecture has been celebrated for it’s character and charm? I’m sure we can find fresh air among those Row Houses but can we find space enough for walkers to feel safe enough strolling near along Water Street? Maybe we’ll all become more fit as we take the stairs because elevators and escalators use will be modified and curtailed.

What does our community readiness look like? What are the practical things we can do now to ready our community? We certainly have to be ready ASAP as many businesses have stated if they can’t get generate some revenue this summer, they will not exist in the future.

What will our public acceptable standards be for opening our businesses? Do we have to come up with a new level of ‘Clean’? What does that level of cleanliness mean to the the bottom line?

I really enjoy listen to Paddy Daly’s show when possible. And lately I’ve tried to catch more of the program than usual, knowing that call-in radio is how many believe our NL democracy is fulfilled. Have I missed the callers who are asking about reaching past short term health issues and conversing on longer term economics? If we are only talking about the short term and not ready to discuss long term, can we split the difference and start trying to figure out the medium term?

The little that is being said regarding intermediate timeframe is that industries who’s cash flow earnings are heavily skewed towards summer are looking for official guidance on whether they spend time and resources on preparing for this season or do they shutter their doors or leave the boats in dry dock?

As an example, Fishery licences are controlled mostly by the Federal Govt so it is easier to get your information from a single department that gives that industry the yea or nay on what they’ll be doing this summer. But what about those who are in an industry that relies on the travelling public. 

Who tells them that their summer season is over? There doesn’t seem to be a governmental department does that has that ability.

Do those who have the ability / authority to officially deny interprovincial transit have to make the hard decisions right now? If this is kicked down the road much further the airlines will make those decisions for the industry, as they close down access by slowly announcing flight cancellation dates. Maybe the best thing for our Tourism Industry to do is hang on and let market forces dictate outcomes and let the winners and losers fall where they may.

Judging by Canadian jurisdictions trying to get back to to their normal, their Great Lockdown looks to be ending in weeks, not months. If other regions can see that as an impending possibility, what is the vision for NL to get out of this situation? Are solutions a combination of physical distancing, gradual commercial openings and using the numerical tipping point of ‘herd immunity’ to our advantage? So far I’ve only solution I’ve heard is vaccine.

Stating the obvious; this is like nothing ever experienced. We are struggling with a tremendous amount of uncertainty and want to know when is this going to be over. It is an unprecedented change for us to be removed from physical social interactions.

The conversations heard from my networks are ones of desperation, urgency, strong leadership, and in the hospitality sector, looking for immediate financial assistance. It seems a lot of sectors are starting to queue up for government assistance. It doesn’t seem like NL has access to substantial assistance as the economy has basically stopped exchanging goods and services (the basic tenant of successful civilizations). We are in a very deep situation. Quickly we have to analyze the unsustainability of an indefinite or undetermined country wide quarantine.

It is next to impossible for anyone to be more knowledgeable and engaged in the preventative measures proposed to stop C-19 transmission. Instructions and recommendations are literally on every channel and social media outlet continuously. Our governments are to be congratulated for having been outstanding leaders in this educational process. It’s obvious that no joy was taken in instituting these measures and being punitive has rarely been a government’s primary motive. So how do we as citizens step up in the next stage?

Can we determine a strategy without lockdowns in place? 

What are the next moves?

What does that look like?

What are the numbers of new infections needed to get out of our escape rooms? 

Can social isolation be over if there is no new cases in 2 weeks?

If we were good over Easter, when are we allowed out again?

We were as prepared for this spontaneous attack as was France when the Nazis invaded, but a quick response is crucial for Canada’s survival. So if testing is what’s needed, let intensify and expand our testing immediately. Once that occurs the next steps will be much clearer.

Though these rants might make me out to be as contrarian as a flat earth society member, I truly believe that we are in this together and have to be together in our solutions. 

So let’s all take a real deep breath, see if we can hold it for 10 seconds, exhale and #MoveOn.