Planning technology changes in turbulent times

Planning technology changes is difficult at the best of times.

However, at times like these, where the core assumptions we have been working and planning with turn out to be entirely false, it can be very difficult to decide how to plan for the future.

For example. "Students will travel from their homes to our classrooms."

This is an assumption. We didn't think it was an assumption - we thought it was a fact. But it turns out that it was an assumption, that has been proved to be at least partially false.

Assumptions = Risks. So a good IT professional is always looking to test assumptions as early as possible.

But what if the issue is outside of our control? These kind of issues have the ability to cause paralysis, as you literally don't know what's going to happen.

Planning for change

In the situation where you don't know what's going to happen, you have to use assumptions as your friend. Normally we try to avoid them, but actually here we need to accept that they exist and are not removable within our span of control or within acceptable timescales.

So we need to identify them, accept them for what they are, and build our plans in the knowledge that these risks are part of the world we're planning for.

With EDUCAUSE's recent publication they decided to depart from the standard approach - Top IT Issues of 2021. Instead they are looking specifically about emerging from the pandemic. And here they very effectively make use of assumptions to frame the intellectual discussion and debate.

They state that there are likely to be alternate futures, and all their discussions of the major IT issues are framed by these scenarios.

The assumptions they pick are also useful to consider if you find yourself planning for the next 24 months in current conditions:

Assumption 1: The pandemic will begin to resolve sometime in 2021.

This is probably a fair assumption. Back in March a lot of people predicted this would all be done and dusted by Christmas. But that might well have been wishful thinking.

However, it does sound like their statement that "one or more effective vaccines will become available and distributed" might be correct, and in addition the widespread availability of rapid-result testing will make management much easier.

Assumption 2: Our scenarios should be high-level views of possible recovery visions.

Looking at the 3 scenarios they chose will allow you to consider different possibilities for your own institution. They recommend that your particular establishment's vision, culture and business model may influence the approach you take, but it always helps to consider from different perspectives.

Assumption 3: A single scenario would probably fit very few institutions.

In complex situations such as this, there will be no one-size-fits-all.

Moving forward

Each institution will be able to identify further assumptions that are specific to their unique circumstances, and these should be documented, and used to frame the planning process.

Once you are happy that you have pulled out the major constraints and assumptions, and tested any assumptions that are within your control to test, you can revise your plans in light of these points.

EDUCAUSE uses 3 scenarios, one or more of which will be a best-fit for your unique organisation:

• Restore: We will figure out how to get back to where we were before the pandemic.
• Evolve: We will adapt to the new normal.
• Transform: We will redefine our institution, creating the innovative future of higher education.

Of course, Transform sounds like the exciting choice. But it just might not be feasible, give other constraints and assumptions. For many, a blend of Restore and Evolve will be the pragmatic route.