Planning for Prosperity in a Crisis

Quite rightly, there is a lot of angst over the health and well-being of the world's population right now. While I'm very concerned about the virus itself, I also have one eye on what the world, specifically the world economy, will look like after we all get through this, and we will get through this!

You've probably heard that the Coronavirus has already eclipsed the 2008 economic crisis. The US government is finalising the emergency aid bill, totalling $2 trillion; this equates to c.$6,000 for every US citizen. Now consider that there are around 6 million unemployed and almost 50 million retired, this puts the 'debt per citizen' closer to $7,300.

Recent studies (JP Morgan Chase Institute) have also illustrated the sectors that will start failing based on their cash buffer - how long one can survive paying the operating costs with no income. A quick calculation of the sectors expected to see these failures within the first 30 days affects around 100 million Americans. JPMC Institute research shows that 50% of small businesses have less than 15 cash buffer days.

This would increase the aid debt per citizen (that can actually contribute to economic growth) to around $9,500 per citizen.

The Coronavirus is going to leave an indelible mark on society and the economy; exceptional circumstances have forced businesses to change, but this has been a lot easier for some, either because they have the resources, or their business model supports remote or digital working.

It is on this rationale that I believe that the more businesses that can be enabled to function under the current constraints, the better chance they have for survival and, therefore, can regain their economic contribution after life returns to normal. In reality (for the US analysis I've undertaken), this means reaching out to those sectors that will completely run out of cash within 30 days - I haven't found UK-specific data, but I'm sure the profile will be very similar.

As someone who works in Technology, and with a talented LinkedIn network around me, I would like to offer any business out there any required support in setting themselves up with productivity (word processing, scheduling, spreadsheets, etc) and collaboration (online meetings, web chat, customer chat services, instant messaging, etc.).

If you don't think you need technical support, but just want a discuss your situation and see if there are any pragmatic actions, just reach out.

Stay clean, stay safe.