Planning ahead for the New Normal after Coronavirus: a dozen measures to help prepare strategically and lead your organisation forwards

With the current vaccines roll-out at last promising hope for a post-covid recovery, the question of the moment is how should organisations be planning for the 'new normal'? Below I'd like to offer a few thoughts and suggestions about relevant, good practice that might be helpful at this challenging time.

Uncertainty is, of course, the key issue that faces us all. Those bright folks at McKinsey & Co suggested a few years back a model of four levels of uncertainty. 'Level 1' is where there is a single, fairly clear view of the future, which can therefore be well planned for. 'Level 2' is where a small range of fairly clear changes are likely and knowable, so it is possible to do some degree of planning. But neither of these situations applies today with covid-19.

Rather, the world now is more at 'Level 3' - where there are very many, possible futures, but none of which is really knowable - or - arguably - at 'Level 4' - true uncertainty - where nothing at all is really predictable. Fortunately, level 4 periods tend to be short-lasting, but the key issue with the current covid crisis is that it won't just 'go away' one fine day when we will simply see a return to how life was before. Instead, this crisis looks to be causing quite a range of longer-term and substantial changes (e.g. more home-working, increased digitalisation by businesses) and the exact shape of such changes is still emerging. This shouldn't mean, though, that leaders should simply give up about preparing for the future! Rather, a wise, guiding approach will be to apply a combination of systematic analysis, fresh thinking and good judgement, as well as skilful and agile design and management of suitable initiatives, actions and organisational processes.

Reflecting this approach, here are a dozen, suggested principles and pointers of good practice for moving forward strategically:

Appoint a dedicated covid crisis planning task-group:- Hopefully, your Board already put something like this in place earlier in the crisis. Typically made up of a small, cross-functional group of senior managers (or possibly a sub-team of the Board itself) and reporting directly to the Board/CEO, the aim of such a unit is to receive and study ongoing intelligence, think ahead about issues and opportunities, work up and recommend co-ordinated options for action across the organisation, oversee crucial projects, and monitor ongoing delivery of actions. Crucially, the unit should plan across a few different time horizons e.g. 1-2 months ahead, next six months and more than one year ahead - enabling your organisation to stay on top of escalating/fast-changing issues and developments.

Carry out an updated critical (strategic) issues assessment:- Now that there are some definite signs of light at the end of the covid tunnel, get your crisis planning team to carry out an updated strategic assessment of your organisation's current situation. You don't have time to do a full, 'clean sheet' strategy update, but do consider things in key areas like: current financial forecasts (especially cashflow) for all business/operational areas; key planning assumptions and risks; current competitive positions and ongoing initiatives for each main product and market; and your current, big capital investment commitments. Identify where previous expectations or views are no longer valid or there are concerns and make suitable updates where you can.

Think ahead carefully about how your post-covid markets might look: In an uncertain future, the classic response in strategy textbooks is to do some 'scenario thinking' i.e. creatively define a range of alternative combinations of possible changes in your company's future and then frame some praoctive strategies. Good if you can do this, but the approach can be a bit unwieldy, so I'd recommend simply thinking about and compiling a list of key ways in which you think your operating environment is likely to, or at least could, be different after the immediate covid crisis passes and judge what could the key implications or opportunities for your organisation. Think ahead for later this year, but also consider how conditions might look into the following year or two. Of course, nobody can be certain, but leaders need to note systematically what they do know, seek more information or wise pointers from others who might know more and then apply their best judgement for assessing the implications. Some obvious examples of popular predictions for the UK mid-2021: a sharp spike in unemployment; consumers continuing to feel unsafe; continued high levels of at-home working; and international travel still being restricted.

Manage the 'here and now' whilst you prepare for emerging from covid: Over the coming six months or so, most organisations will continue to face many of their current 'operational' priorities. For example: day-to-day cashflow oversight; motivating/managing staff, whilst ensuring their ongoing safety; working closely with suppliers and partners to adapt/provide safe and resilient operational processes; and communicating with and supporting current customers. But, at the same time, leaders need now to prepare/plan how they are going to respond when the economy does start to open up more: work through the short-term predictions you have made. Examples of some key decisions: How are you going to re-energise your staff, with many feeling exhausted and stressed? How are you going to adapt (or diversify?) your current products/services to suit the new market conditions you've predicted? How are you going to stimulate/revive fresh customer demand?

Re-confirm/emphasize your organisation's purpose, values and broad direction:- For a higly uncertain environment, forget the traditional 'multi-year' forecast and fixed written plan! Instead, focus on drafting/updating a visionary (directional) strategic 'framework' for your organisation: this centres on stating why your organisation fundamentally exists (purpose); what you are offering and to whom (mission); and what key beliefs/principles you stand for (values). This framework should act as an overall anchor to guide your future strategic choices and day-to-day operational decisions by your managers.

Choose 'strategic' moves and actions that suit different future possibilities: In a protacted crisis, you can't move forward just by reacting to how the world around you unfolds over the next few months: you need to decide on at least some major i.e. longer-term moves (e.g. exit from a current market, develop a new product), otherwise your organisation will end up on a path to nowhere! The trick in an uncertain environment is to come up with a small set of major moves that will be suitable to suit a majority of likely trends/developments, even if every move isn't a winner on its own. In this way, you gain valuable flexibility. In selecting your strategic moves, consider actions that might proactively help to protect your competitive position or give you future flexibility..

Use an 'agile' management approach for moving forward: Agile strategic leadership involves following an ongoing series of short (ideally, quarterly, or 4-monthly) cycles of chosen actions/projects and ideas/experiments - using your visionary framework as a context. The process involves deciding on actions for teams across the organisation and then reviewing their progress or results at the next cycle interval, making any adjustments or adding new actions to suit feedback from staff, customers or other stakeholders. Adapt your budgeting and performance reporting systems to match and support the cycle. By using this approach - where strategy essentially merges with tactics - your organisation can learn and respond fast and flexibly to however the uncertain environment unfolds.

Adapt structure and culture for speed and performance:- Many organisations (from doctors' surgeries to local retailers) have surprised themselves how fast they have been able to adapt over the last year to cope with the pandemic: all organisations will need to maintain and extend such an ability. Key organisational features to strive for include, for example: a flatter management structure; a bias for action/achieving results; nimble and flexible operational processes; fast/efficient decision-making processes (e.g. fewer meetings and allocating more responsibility 'down the line'); rapid and widespread reporting of latest performance data; and strong incentives and recognition for excellent staff performance. Culture - "how we run things around here" is definitely the new strategic weapon!

Further invest in digitalisation and closer supply-chain relationships: Pushed on by the covid crisis, a priority for many organisations needs to be a serious review of their current technology/IT systems, projects and spending. A frequent need will be to accelerate the move to more digitalised operating models in order to serve more on-line business and to reduce costs, improve resilience, and build increased flexibility. Reviewing how data can be used to improve decision-making should be part of the IT review. At the same time, organisations will typically need to develop their IT arrangements with a much more open, streamlined, and integrated relationship with their suppliers, partners, distributors/agents and customers.

Increase support to employees and invest in skills and team-work. Periods of heightened uncertainty - like that caused by covid-19 - can obviously take a toll on employees' mental health, energy levels, engagement and overall morale. So, a critical need for leaders over the coming months is going to be to offer appropriate reassurance and support to help staff switch to the 'new normal'. At the same time, though, leaders will need to review and adjust not just structures and ways of working but also what specific skills and jobs will be needed in the future. Some employees will need to be let go, whilst for others the organisation should invest carefully in their talent and development. Alongside investing in individuals, leaders will need to foster more use of team/project work and flexible collaboration across their organisations.

Develop more of a learning and change-based organisation: This is a principle I think is a critical need for most organisations. In short, to be a 'high-performing' organisation in a fast-changing, uncertain world, leaders need, for example, to ensure their company has strong intelligence and data processes to capture and assess new trends and developments; operating processes that are flexible and adaptable; a culture that values experimentation and trying out new ideas; and support for ongoing personal curiosity and learning amongst all employees.

Get leaders to switch from 'coping' to seizing fresh opportunities: The focus from leaders so far in this pandemic has needed, of course, to be coping and ensuring actual survival for their organisation - including providing extra communication and support to employees. Much practical advice has been available since last spring to help managers do their job (I liked the CMI's 'The Better Managers Manual. Managing the New Normal' - see reference below) - for example, raise your 'virtual' visibility; hold team meetings often; hold informal 1:1s with individuals often; keep an eye on everyone's mental health; and call out/recognise successess regularly.

But now leaders' focus needs to switch more to moving out of the crisis and thinking about the future and - certainly for business organisations - 'competing' again. I think a key point here, though, is to remember - whilst covid still takes several months to fully ease - to use this period, as much as you can, as a prompt and opportubity to alter, re-think and pivot some of the things your organisations does today - not least as you'll surely need to - because, in many ways, there will be a 'new normal' out there! So, do use this current crisis - like many organisations have done in previous crises - to spur innovation and fresh change in your organisation. Doubtlessly, over the last nine months or so, you've had time - in quieter moments - to self-reflect and wonder about the future: so seize some of those thoughts, discuss them with your boss or colleagues, and try and put some of your ideas into action. Accept the air of uncertainty, yes, but also remember Albert Einstein's wise remarks: "In the midst of every crisis, lies the great opportunity!"

/ written by Mike P. Owen, co-founder & senior partner at The Owen Morris Partnership, (strategic & management facilitators), Worcester, United Kingdom. E: [email protected]

* Book reference: "The Better Managers Manual. Managing the New Normal. A Practical Guide to Navigating the Impacts of COVID-19". Spring 2020. Published by the Chartered Management Institute.