A Plan for China

On 25 January 2021, President Xi of the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) addressed the Davos Economic Forum. He advocated for cooperation and stability in the World, while avoiding mentioning the violations of the agreement to govern Hong Kong, the genocide against the Uighur ethnic group, or the constant incursions Taiwanese and the Japanese air space by the Chinese Air Force. He warned against beginning a new Cold War. Overall, it was really nothing new. 

China has a plan. They have published it and they are following it to the letter.  What is happening should not surprise us.  With a population of well over 1 billion people and soon to be the world’s largest economy, they have almost unstoppable momentum to achieve their stated goals. So how does the Biden administration and the rest of the World address the PRC?  What is the plan? 

Following are some thoughts on what such a plan might look like. These proposals are based on the assumption that China’s current rise is not reversible. We are going to have to live in a world with a China that is economically and militarily powerful, maybe the most powerful Nation on Earth. This is not a defeatist view. It is simply a recognition of today’s reality. China's rise can only be a defeat for us if we do nothing about it, if we take no steps to secure our own interests and safety. 

So, the problem statement is as follows: “How does the United States, in concert with others whenever possible, deal with an increasingly powerful and dominant China, while avoiding military conflict?” 

We do not want to go to war with China, nor do I believe they want to go to war with us. The resulting destruction would be devastating to us both. That said, there will be daily friction and, on some occasions, confrontation. So how do we move forward?  My thoughts fall into three bins..... areas of cooperation, competition and confrontation. 

Cooperation 

There are many issues on which it is in the best interests for both the US and China to cooperate. 

Climate control/management. All nations have an interest in arresting and mitigating the effects of global warming.  Cooperation here on alternative energy sources, carbon capture, air and war pollution mitigation strategies and technologies can and should take place. 

Internet and information standards. The internet and social media are more or less an “ungoverned space.” Eventually nations will have to agree on some sort of “rules of the road.” China and the US must be part of this discussion. 

Space. There is no meaningful international convention or rules for conduct in space. With the exponential growth in the deployment of satellites to support the internet of all things and information exchange this area is ripe for cooperation. 

Arms Control. The US just agreed with the Russians to extend the New START agreement for 5 years. China is not a part of this or any other arms control agreement. As a major military and nuclear power, they must be brought into these types of agreements. 

Medical Research. COVID alone makes this a necessity. China with its aging population is facing huge medical issues now and in the future so they should be motivated to cooperate here. 

United Nations programs, to include Peacekeeping. Another area where common causes intersect. Refugee aid and return, food aid and disaster relief all are areas where the US needs to contribute, if only to ensure China does not act alone. Other than on rare occasions, the US has only participated in UN Peacekeeping opera in South Korea and the Sinai.   These operations, in my opinion, provide our military forces with real operational experience and we should  consider increasing our participation.  As an old Marine told me once, “ People in the military get tired of just training. They want to go somewhere and do something.”  Real experience in a conflict has a quantifiable value when the shooting starts.

Cultural exchanges. Allowing entertainment, sports, and in some cases educational exchanges to take place is a good way to see things from each other’s view. 

Education. This one is hard. The Chinese elite send their children to the US to get an education. They often pay full tuition, which provides vital funding for many of our Universities. But there is a risk that they might also be involved in espionage or theft of intellectual property. Then again, their experiences in America,  may cause them to appreciate the advantages of the American system of government. I vote for allowing them to come, and maybe stay here to work. 

Allies and Partners.  Whatever action that takes places involving China, the US cannot do it alone.  We need allies and partners.  Recent US actions have not facilitated our alliances and bi-lateral relationships.   Yes, all need to pay their share but the US as a global power needs access to ports, airfields and overflight.   This comes from our friends.  You can never have too many friends.  

Competition

We are now and will continue to compete with China.  Competition spans beyond the economic and military realms.  This competition is over global influence and access.  It is competition for economic growth. It is an information fight over whose norms and values will be adopted more broadly.  Western ideas of freedom, liberty and opportunity or Chinese ideas about a collective society based on stability and compliance.  So, we must compete. We must be present globally, not just virtually but physically. 

Trade. This is the most important area of competition. When we decided to not enter into  the Trans Pacific Partnership, China quickly stepped in to engage all countries of Asia by creating the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. This regional arrangement gives them a major venue to enhance their economic position. It is further enhanced by their “One Belt, One Road” initiative, where they have “operationalized” the use of fiscal capital to buy resources and finance port, rail and air infrastructure worldwide, to include in this hemisphere. We are not winning this contest. We must get back in the mix  by joining trade arrangements such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership and by investing in global effort economic development, especially in this hemisphere and in Africa.  We must call out China’s “pay day” lending practices and provide other options for developing nations to improve their economies.  Imposing tariffs and outlawing PRC technology software companies will only take us so far.  At the same time, we should be trading with China in all those areas where we can create a dependency for the Chinese, while avoiding putting ourselves at risk in dual use technologies.

Military Capability.   Since the demise of the Soviet Union, the US has been the dominant military power in the world.  We have deployed our Forces, where we wanted to, when we wanted to and how we wanted to.  Those days are gone.  In the past 20 years, funded by their economic development, China has built a new, technologically advanced and capable military.  They have gone from not a threat, to a near peer to a peer, both in the quantity and quality of their force.  They have studied our “way of war,” and quite simply modeled themselves after our forces and created capabilities to directly confront our critical capabilities.  All that said, we are in a race to provide a viable deterrent to a changing security landscape, while still sustaining a global presence to deter adversaries and assure our allies.  The US has begun to develop force organizations, our concepts of warfighting and the capabilities we need, not just now, but in the future.  We have to go faster.   It will not be cheap.  But as it was once said, “How much are you willing to pay for survival?”   

5 G Networks. It is one thing to ban or restrict the efforts of Huawei and ZTE. It is another to provide an affordable option to countries looking to improve their IT infrastructures.  We need an affordable and secure American and/or Western 5G alternative. 

Manufacturing. The outsourcing of US manufacturing to China must end to the extent possible. Our supply chain for medical supplies, for example, significantly restricted our ability to respond to COVID. We can make things here or with partners, whether it be steel, circuit chips, clothes, cars and solar panels....we just have to rebuild the capacity. We cannot be dependent on any country for critical components that support the health and security of our nation. 

Immigration. The US should have an immigration policy that allows not just those seeking political asylum but those who have talents that they want to bring to make us stronger. This includes Chinese citizens.  I would immediately offer all people who live in Hong Kong who have a skill the ability to immigrate to the US.

Confrontation 

Cyber Security and Intellectual Property. Information and data is the new “oil.”  It is a commodity that can be bought, provided or stolen.  Like the Russian’s, the PRC’s theft of personal information/identity, intellectual property and copyrighted products is legendary. They must be held accountable if they flout international laws in these areas.  They have and are likely to continue to do so.  Possible retaliation in these domains must be an option. And the US should consider a declaratory policy in certain instances.

Fisheries. China is draining the Earth’s oceans of  its fish stocks. The US must support all nations’ efforts to enforce fish catch limitations and patrol their recognized legally established territorial waters. 

Human Rights and International Law. China will spare no effort to criticize others for their social and legal shortcomings.  They completely excuse their own actions, as in Hong Kong, the South China Sea and in dealing with their own Uighur ethnic group. These instances of hypocrisy must be called out for what they are.  China has been found guilty in the South China Sea of violating the UN Convention on the Laws of the Sea. The US is not a signatory of this agreement. To bolster our credibility, we should accede to UNCLOS and continue to exercise our right of freedom of navigation on the sea and in the air. Additionally, we should support other Asian Nations who are regularly confronted by the Chinese military and commercial ships and aircraft fleet in their own territorial waters and economic exclusion zones. 

The Long Haul

This list in all areas could go on. The point is this. China is not going away and will only continue to grow stronger. We have to learn to live with an increasingly powerful China.   Not on bended knee but by dealing with China openly, firmly and respectfully.   Changes in this relationship will evolve over time, but we must engage where it makes sense and is in the interest of both Countries. We must also work with our allies and partners to both compete and confront China, when it is necessary.  Illegal and nefarious acts and behavior must be called out.  At all times we must be patient and play a longer game.  This is not an American cultural strong suit, but we have done so in the recent past.  At the end of the day, we must cooperate where it makes sense.  Maintain and build alliances and partnerships.  Compete and confront below the level of conflict in order to deter war.