Places Your Bets: What's Ahead for Big Law in 2024

I’m Roy Strom , and today we place the odds for what might happen in the year ahead.

It’s been a long year, but the moment we’ve been waiting for has finally arrived: The Big Law Sportsbook’s return!

We have a big slate of Big Law odds to preview next year. For newcomers, here’s how it works. Most of the odds are in the form of an “over-under” bet. I set a prediction for a total amount, and you choose whether the outcome will come in “over” or “under” that total.

It’s straightforward. And from a prognosticator’s point of view, it’s the perfect crime: These are almost like predictions, except I retain plausible deniability.

Number of firms that will report $3 billion or more in revenue: 7.5

In 2022, only five firms reported $3 billion in revenue, AmLaw data show. So, this number for 2023, 7.5, might raise eyebrows. Will three more firms reach that once-unimaginable threshold?

To be honest, there’s a chance the number doubles to 10 firms. Most likely to reach that new plateau are Sidley Austin and White & Case, which reported $2.9 billion and $2.8 billion in revenue, respectively, in 2022. Modest growth would push them over the line.

Morgan Lewis & Bockius, Gibson Dunn & Crutcher and Ropes & Gray are also within striking distance. That group would require revenue growth of around 10% to hit the mark.

Those are high numbers, no doubt. But Ropes & Gray and Gibson Dunn have posted financial performances in recent years that would blow past those growth rates.

If you take the under, it’s a bet that none or only one of these three firms will hit that target. Feeling optimistic?

Find the rest of the predictions here and sign up to receive this column in your Inbox on Thursday mornings.

Insurers Invade Litigation Finance, Boosting Law Firm Options

The $13.5 billion litigation finance industry is getting new competition from the insurance sector, which offers law firms alternative tools to pay for legal actions and poaches talent from traditional funders.

Brokers have spotted multiple ways to become a part of the legal finance ecosystem by offering products that work in tandem with litigation funding and at times in lieu of it. In some instances, funders haven’t been able to compete with insurers’ policies, said Stephen Kyriacou , managing director and senior lawyer for Aon Plc’s litigation risk group.

Insurance has essentially “killed” the role of litigation funders in cases that have been decided in a lower court by offering judgment preservation insurance, Kyriacou said. “Funders have started to kind of cede that ground to us and focus on other avenues,” he added.

Insurance brokers such as Aon, CAC Specialty and Willis Towers Watson Plc are invading the space of litigation finance companies as the asset class has grown in popularity since its infancy a decade ago. In litigation finance, investors pay the cost of a lawsuit—or for a portfolio of lawsuits—in return for a portion of the award in successful cases.

Insurers since 2019 have accelerated their offerings of judgment preservation insurance, a policy that guarantees a portion of an award. In the last year they have also expanded into providing policies to law firms for an entire docket of cases.

OpenAI Probe Is WilmerHale Test After College President Debacle

WilmerHale’s investigation into Sam Altman’s ouster at OpenAI gives the law firm a chance to counsel behind the scenes of a major corporate controversy—and to burnish its own reputation.

WilmerHale’s reputation for delivering in a crisis took a hit early this month with its representation of Harvard University President Claudine Gay and then-University of Pennsylvania President Liz Magill at a congressional hearing about antisemitism on college campuses.

“It’s fair to say that in the limelight of the moment, people questioned the advice they gave,” said Peter Zeughauser, a law firm management adviser.

But with OpenAI’s hire of WilmerHale, announced just three days after the congressional hearing, the firm gets a new opportunity to show why it developed a reputation for delivering results in a crisis. WilmerHale has represented clients such as Meta Platforms Inc., Oxycontin maker PurduePharma, and several large banks testifying before Congress in high-profile crises and investigations.

Investigations such as WilmerHale’s probe into OpenAI can be a device to rebuild employee and investor faith in a company, said Simon Gaugush, a Carlton Fields partner and former federal prosecutor. The probe “feels more like a showpiece to restore stockholder confidence and, frankly, internally—for all these employees who feel like Altman’s ouster was disruptive,” he said.

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