Pipe Bombs in the Nation’s Capital – What do we Know?
Two months ago, the U.S. Capitol was attacked and overrun by thousands of protestors, angry and frustrated at the results of the 2020 election. Exhaustively covered in media, to include an aftermath which has seen what the FBI and Department of Justice (DOJ) have called an unprecedented investigation in terms of scope and size, one event was overshadowed by the spectacular photos and video coming out of the January 6, 2021 attacks; the discovery of two pipe bombs in the National Capital Region seemingly targeting both the offices of the Democratic and Republic National Committee headquarters, not far from the U.S. Capitol itself. Originally believed to have been planted close in time to the actual January 6th attack on the Capitol, (something the FBI maintained for many days on electronic bulletins seeking information about the bombs) the devices in fact seem to have been planted the day before the Capitol riots, throwing a potential monkey wrench into things for investigators.
As a long time explosives investigator and subject matter expect, some things do strike me as curious:
1. The devices were exploited by a highly competent lab, in this case the FBI Laboratory in Quantico, Virginia, yet either no DNA or latent prints were recovered, or they were, but remain unmatched to a person. This is not in itself rare.
2. Since the original tweet by the FBI’s Washington Field Office on January 7, 2021 and the establishment of a $50,000 award, a steady drip of additional tweets and statements have put forth additional information, and the reward is now double; $100,000. Despite this, there have been no arrests to date.
3. The FBI maintained for almost 3 weeks the bombs were placed on January 6, 2021, and this was widely carried in the media as an incontrovertible fact. Only when the Washington Post (WAPO) published a story with video links and neighbor interviews on January 29th, indicating the suspect placed the devices on January 5, 2021, did the FBI change public bulletins to reflect the devices were most likely planted on January 5th, between 7:30 PM and 8:30 PM (Eastern Standard Time). Why was this the case, and did the difference of a day somehow dissuade or confuse would be witnesses from coming forward because what they saw/knew did not match the original January 6th timeline publicized in the media?
Bomb Design – What Do We Know?
From various FBI bulletins seeking information on the suspected bomber(s), as well as Quick Look Reports from the National Explosives Task Force dated January 7th and March 2nd, (later released by CBS News Senior Investigative Correspondent Catherine Herridge), the bombs used metal pipe nipples and endcaps with what appears to be homemade black powder. Each device also incorporated 9-volt batteries, alligator clips, steel wool, electrical tape, both red and black colored multi-strand wires and battery clips. An improvised timing circuit was attached to each device and fabricated out of a 60-minute mechanical timer, paper clips, and what appears to be an adhesive like hot glue.
Based upon my experience and training, it was fairly simple to identify the mechanical timers used, which I did through photographic analysis of released photos and a Google image search. I purchased one of the timers myself a few weeks ago, and it is materially identical in appearance to the timers on the devices. (See exemplar picture – courtesy of author) Out of respect for the ongoing investigation, I am not identifying the brand name of the timer, nor the U.S. retailer that sells them. As a bomb investigator, I am well aware of the steps one would need to take next to identify purchases of such timers, and I guarantee the ATF and FBI agents working this case are similarly well aware.
Based upon reporting by the Washington Post (WAPO), DC resident Karlin Younger “was on her way to do laundry when she spotted something unusual on the ground between a recycling bin and a rat trap.” In the same WAPO interview, Younger said she bent down to examine the device, which she said seemed to be a kitchen timer, and that the timer was set to 20 minutes. Younger further stated she did not hear any ticking and could not tell if the timer was active. Both devices were rendered safe by bomb technicians from the United States Capitol Police, and the evidence sent to the FBI Laboratory in Quantico, Virginia. There, the devices were processed for all basic forensic modalities and examined by hazardous device examiners (very highly trained special agent bomb technicians who are also experts in forensics) from the Explosives Unit, a subset of the Terrorist Explosive Device Analytical Center (TEDAC), which I led as either the acting director or deputy director for about four years. The men and women who work there are consummate professionals and world class experts.
Given the various components recovered, the apparent design, and statements from both federal prosecutors and agents, the devices are viable IEDs, although that will of course be subject to a trier of fact when a suspect is eventually arrested, which will occur.
Why Didn’t the Devices Work?
In reviewing numerous Tweets and comments about the pipe bombs, writers have hypothesized that the devices were never intended to function; that they were a “false flag” operation; that the bomber had poor tradecraft. I am told by sources that the render safe procedure (RSP) was particularly destructive in this instance, but that claim is largely immaterial to solving the case. While a disruptive RSP may make things tough for scientists and agents to forensically exploit the evidence, it would not (typically) destroy latent prints or DNA. I personally saw photos of one RSP used in the Cesar Sayok parcel bombing spree from October 2018, which completely hammered one device, yet we managed to get ample evidence against him. I am not here to criticize the bomb techs who did the RSP, and they did what they thought needed to be done, in the way they thought needed to do it. Enough said.
I will observe that building a bomb with any sort of timer is not as foolproof as one might imagine, and while practice may make perfect, it may also alert people who will call the police, ending you up in jail before your plot can reach fruition. The use of seemingly homemade black powder is an interesting choice, as it is rarely of the quality seen in commercial products. Thus, viability of your low explosive may be a tradeoff between the desire to stay under the radar by making things yourself, versus the reliability of a commercial product. Similarly, according to the WAPO witness from the aforementioned January 29th story, one of the pipe bombs had 20 minutes left on the timer and was not ticking, implying the timer was stuck. You may notice from photos released by the FBI that the printed instructions on the dial the timers used in the devices instruct that the timer is supposed to be turned fully clockwise and only then turned to the selected time; was this step missed? Lastly, the choice of steel wool as an apparent ignitor was curious, as was the fact that the measured voltage of one 9-volt battery was only 8.1 volts, while a new 9-volt battery in good condition would typically register 9.5 or 9.6 volts (with no load) based upon my own knowledge and research.
In short, not all bombers are the explosives experts they imagine, and they build what they think will work, based upon their own experience, research, availability of parts, financial resources, and…paranoia. Just because a device did not function, or they were a lousy bomb builder does not mean they will be spared from a long stint in federal prison; just ask Cesar Sayok.
Motivation of a Bomber
When the initial reports of pipe bombs planted on January 6th were aired, many ascribed the motivation of the unknown bomber(s) as being tied to the Capitol riots; absent any real evidence, this seemed logical, simple and perhaps even in line with Occam’s Razor. With video evidence suggesting the bombs were actually planted on January 5th, the night before, theories become more convoluted.
In my experience, it is often difficult to ascribe the true intentions of a bomber, because while we can sometimes deduce motive from target, I am unaware of anyone on the UNABOM Task Force who believed that eventually identified and convicted bomber Ted Kaczynski was striking out (as his manifesto claimed) because of some hatred of technology. Similarly, while convicted Centennial Olympic Park bomber Eric Rudolph claimed deep religious underpinnings as part of his motive, interviews of witnesses and associates make it seem more likely that he was simply a manipulative sociopath seeking to kill and maim.
Many times, the motivation for why a bomber built and used a particular device has to wait until the bomber is arrested, and their writings and digital footprint examined. While I have my own theories on this account, I will happily wait until the bomber(s) is/are arrested and see what the agents have to say.
Conclusion
Given the high profile of the National Capitol Region pipe bombings, and the vast resources being funneled to solve it, I am genuinely surprised nobody is yet in custody. For a public accustomed to “CSI” type television and a plethora of law shows about the FBI, NCIS, LAPD and others, this must seem puzzling. While sometimes you get a break and DNA or latent prints quickly point to a suspect, even clear latent prints and unambiguous DNA profiles are less than useful if the person has never been fingerprinted or their DNA placed into a database! One may logically draw a conclusion that investigators have no good leads from the increasing rewards offered, but I am confident that agents from ATF and the FBI will solve this bombing; someone will talk, additional facts will come into focus, or the bomber will either try again, or eventually get in a position where their DNA and/or fingerprints can be matched against available forensic evidence. Like my readers, I will be curious about the bomber’s motive, and will be closely watching for additional developments in the interim. If you have any information about this crime, call 1800CALLFBI, 1888ATFBOMB, or submit something online at https://tips.fbi.gov. #CapitolRiots #PipeBombs #ATF #FBI #ATF #ATFWashington #FBIWFO
Principal Research Scientist at Center for Naval Analyses
3 年Scott - concise and fascinating read. Please follow up here with more of your analysis as additional details become public knowledge.
Hon. Amb. at SENATUS CONSULTUM "Conscriptus Electus" ????
3 年This also precludes to an inside job as well, no suspects and done the day prior but why did they not detonate, as well Capitol Police and dogs hunted the ground prior, with a comms check, another always before the crime occurs fact?
State Trooper, Bomb Technician and K9 Handler specializing in First Responder/Receiver Training and Preparedness.
3 年Very good analysis of the device (using open source) and the investigation itself. I think sometimes we get too dependent on DNA or fingerprints. As you allude to sometimes shoe leather is our best resource. Knowing the agencies involved I am sure they are following up many leads. I remember being told during the PA Pizza Bomber investigstion, Agents visited every big bix store of a certain brand to identify who bought components. Please keep following this.
Sir, I’m so glad you posted this because I was wondering why nothing has been posted about this...or the explosion in Nashville...in the news. We expend a lot of resources looking for red herrings but not at incidents that would quickly turn us into Kabul or Baghdad.
Director Missouri Department of Public Safety
3 年Excellent analysis Scott.