Pilotless Commercial Aircraft (#19)

Will there ever be pilotless commercial aircraft? When I asked my followers this question last week, almost a third said it would never happen. Yet the topic has been in the news a lot since the rise of artificial intelligence.

Patrik Lindgren, currently serving as a TRI/TRE on the A380, asked the same question on LinkedIn. I invited Patrik to share his thoughts on this subject. What do we need to keep in mind when we're navigating towards pilotless commercial aircraft?

With a lifelong passion for aviation, Patrik Lindgren's journey began at 14 when he took to the skies in gliders. Since then, his fascination with aviation has soared to new heights as he pursued his dream of becoming a pilot. Today, he holds Airline Transport Pilot licenses in three different jurisdictions and has a diverse background in piloting various business jets and Airbus aircraft.

Patrik's dedication to aviation safety is unwavering, underscored by his academic achievement of earning an MSc in Air Safety Management. His research and thesis specifically delved into the critical areas of automation and human factors, demonstrating his commitment to improving safety in the aviation industry.

Patrik has actively contributed to aviation training in various roles throughout his career, solidifying his reputation as an ardent safety advocate. Currently, he serves as a TRI/TRE on the A380, further emphasising his commitment to upholding the highest standards of safety and excellence in aviation.

Navigating the Path to Pilotless Commercial Aircraft

By Patrik Lindgren MSc MRAeS , TRI/TRE on the A380

The concept of pilotless commercial aircraft has ignited a mix of curiosity and apprehension within the aviation industry. There is an ongoing push to reduce the number of pilots in the cockpit, evident in various industry discussions and social media representations, and undoubtedly, advancements in automation and artificial intelligence (AI) eventually promise to make autonomous passenger airplanes commonplace. However, the journey toward achieving this vision is long and challenging.

'Open the pod bay doors, HAL'

Automation and AI have already delivered significant benefits to aviation by enhancing safety, reducing operational costs, and improving efficiency. They excel at handling routine tasks, providing continuous system monitoring, and lessening pilot workload. Nevertheless, it is crucial to acknowledge their inherent limitations, particularly their inability to adapt and exercise flexible judgment—an essential human trait. Automation and AI can only respond to pre-programmed triggers in predefined ways as they lack the cognitive capacity to assess unforeseen situations and make nuanced decisions. The iconic scene in "2001: A Space Odyssey" featuring astronaut Dave Bowman and the AI, HAL 9000, though old, exemplifies the limitations of relying solely on AI in critical situations. While future developments hold promise, we have not yet reached a point where AI can replace human judgment entirely.

The 'Human Error' Myth

One common argument for eliminating pilots centres on eradicating 'human error.' As inappropriate a term as that may arguably be, achieving a 'human error'-free environment would also necessitate eliminating human involvement in designing, manufacturing, and installing automated systems—an unfeasible proposition. As long as humans are part of these processes, the potential for 'human error,' albeit potentially from a different angle and different from operator-induced errors, persists as a threat.

It's essential to recognise that discussions about 'human error' often stem from statistics highlighting cases where pilots uncovered or triggered latent conditions already existing in the system. While the aviation industry adeptly documents such events as 'pilot error,' it often overlooks situations where automation failed to address adverse conditions, requiring human intervention, which resulted in favourable outcomes. Incidents like US Airways Flight 1549 and United Airlines Flight 232 underscore the invaluable role of human expertise and adaptability in critical situations. Numerous similar, though less severe, events go unnoticed, failing to emphasise the value of human intervention.

Emotions and Decision-Making

Another argument for pilotless flight suggests that human decision-making is hindered by emotions, making computers more effective decision-makers. However, this argument oversimplifies the decision-making process and makes it binary. Studies in psychology reveal that individuals devoid of emotional input in their decision-making tend to become overly analytical and indecisive. If AI, designed for efficiency, eliminates emotional factors, it may struggle with complex decisions during unforeseen or 'black swan' events. It might overanalyse in pursuit of perfection, potentially leading to delayed decisions and catastrophic outcomes. Thus, the question arises: if we must introduce an emotional element to AI to achieve authentic 'human-like' decision flexibility, what do we indeed gain by replacing human operators?

The Military and Public Perception

Proponents often point to the military's use of autonomous aircraft when other arguments fall short. While some fully autonomous aerial vehicles do exist, they operate within scripted and structured test conditions. Predominantly used Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are still piloted or monitored by humans, albeit remotely. This solution could also be a way forward for civil aviation. Still, the required level of cyber security and its associated cost may need to be revised to make such an option realisable. Additionally, due to human limitations in multitasking and the need for situational awareness, a remote pilot may need to oversee one aircraft at a time, limiting the potential reduction in flight crew members and, consequently, cost savings.

Further to the financial aspect, civil aviation relies on passengers as its primary funding source, and the industry must address passenger concerns about safety, trust, and the overall flight experience if pilotless flight is to become a reality. Furthermore, transitioning to pilotless flight entails significant costs, including developing new aircraft or retrofitting existing ones, upgrading air traffic control (ATC) and air traffic management (ATS) systems, and adaptations to airports to accommodate pilotless operations.

Conclusion

The journey toward pilotless commercial aircraft is undeniably intriguing, but it is also fraught with multifaceted challenges. While automation and artificial intelligence have brought substantial benefits to aviation, including enhanced safety and reduced costs, their limitations in adapting to unforeseen situations and making nuanced decisions are evident. The notion of eliminating 'human error' is complex as long as humans are involved in designing and maintaining automated systems.

Civil aviation relies on passenger trust and faces significant financial hurdles in transitioning to pilotless flight. Addressing passenger concerns and adapting infrastructure are critical steps in this journey. As we navigate this path, it is evident that while the vision of pilotless commercial aircraft is compelling, the transition will require careful consideration of technology, safety, and the human element to ensure a successful and secure future for aviation.