Pictet AM Smarts

Pictet AM Smarts

Welcome back to Pictet AM Smarts, our regular roundup of articles analysing the trends shaping the economy, markets and society. In this month's newsletter, our experts share their forecasts for the year ahead, explore the impact of China's recovery on other emerging markets, and highlight opportunities in European real estate. Happy reading!

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Annual Outlook 2025: what to expect from markets this year

Our strategy unit has released its forecasts for the next 12 months. We anticipate that equities, and in particular US equities, will outperform bonds in 2025 due to resilient growth and declining interest rates. Global growth is projected to stabilise at around 2.8%, supported by easing inflation and potential recovery in China and Europe, despite geopolitical risks and high equity valuations. When it comes to sectors, our preferred sectors include banks and utilities which are expected to benefit from the economic environment, while in the fixed income market, UK bonds are seen as particularly attractive due to a favourable inflation outlook.


China's recovery is benefiting other emerging economies

China's recent monetary stimulus, aimed at reversing economic decline, is positively impacting emerging markets by boosting investor confidence and demand for imports. The expected recovery in Chinese tourism and trade will particularly benefit ASEAN countries. Additionally, the strength of the renminbi is enhancing the performance of linked currencies. Overall, these developments, combined with US monetary easing, are set to accelerate growth in emerging economies, potentially allowing them to outpace developed markets.

Discover the countries that benefit the most from China's rebound (Chart: impact of an increase in Chinese imports and tourism, % of GDP)

Impact of an increase in Chinese imports and tourism, % of GDP
*Assuming that Chinese tourism returns to its 2019 level (currently less than 60%). Source: Pictet Asset Management, CEIC, Refinitiv. Data as at 01.10.2024.

China stimulates, emerging countries win


Real estate opportunities in Europe

European real estate is likely to benefit as interest rates fall across the region, which should boost property values. However, not all buildings will benefit equally: prime locations will do well, while outdated properties like some shopping centres and less sustainable buildings will struggle. This is a good time to consider investing at lower prices while focusing on improving properties for better returns.

We detail the main strategies available to investors, with examples of our team's recent deals.

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) performance

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) performance
Source: Pictet Alternative Advisors, as at 31 August 2024. Chart shows performance of a strategy tracking the FTSE EPRA Nareit Global REITS Net Total Return Index, rebased to 100 as at 31 October 2023.

European real estate: a selective recovery


And finally, get to know our fixed income team in this new video:

Some more reading:

Monthly asset allocation views: Sticking with stocks

Next-gen weather forecasting with machine learning

Watch: capturing private lending opportunities in Europe


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Daniele Concas

Sales Executive at ADVISOR - Open Financial Communication

1 个月

Ottimi spunti, grazie

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Interesting thanks for the update.

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Instructif merci bien!

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