Phase IV of Podcast Growth: Scaling Past 10k Downloads/Episode
Jeremy Enns
Obsessively deconstructing, documenting & teaching podcast marketing, growth, and conversion in more detail than probably anyone else on the planet. LFG ??
This is the final installment of a 5-part series on the Phases of Podcast Growth.
You can read the previous four installments covering Phases I – III here.
Almost no one makes it to 10k downloads per episode.
Statistically, only a fraction of a percent of shows ever launched make it to the milestone.
For established shows, the news is a little better, but daunting nonetheless.
For a weekly show, that's 5.5 years of consistent publishing without missing a week.
So no, you’re not going to hit this milestone overnight.
And for most shows, it’s virtually impossible for all the reasons outlined in Phase III.
Despite the long odds, however, some shows do make it to this milestone.
And while revenue-generation opportunities continue to open up in this phase, opportunities for additional; growth become even harder to come by.
It’s for this reason that 10k dl/ep represents the final phase of growth.
While there is still the potential for some shows to grow to tens or hundreds of thousands—or even millions—of downloads per episode, these are the true outliers, relying heavily on luck, timing, truly exceptional talent, and existing fame to get there.
Said differently, for most shows, it is utterly impossible to strategize and market your way to 100k or 1M dl/ep.
But if you’ve made your way to 10k and want to give it a shot, here’s what you need to know.
Phase IV Challenges
There are two primary challenges confronting any show in the fourth and final Phase of Podcast Growth:
And while both of these challenges have appeared in previous phases, in Phase IV, they are ramped up to 11.
World-Class Competition
If the competition for audience attention became stiff in Phase III, in Phase IV it becomes outright hellish.
At this stage, you’re moving into direct competition with the biggest media companies, celebrities, and brands in the world… not to mention the marketing & production budgets, elite teams of storytellers, producers, and marketers, and existing brand awareness, reputation, and audience they bring with them.
To continue to grow in Phase IV, then, your show needs to be nothing short of world-class.
World-class production.
World-class ideas.
World-class guests.
And perhaps most important of all, you need to be a world-class host, including your:
Achieving this level of content quality requires sustaining an obsessive focus on developing and honing your craft, likely for years if not decades (see: Joe Rogan, Tim Ferriss, etc).
Not everyone is up to (or even interested) in this.
And even if you are, there’s another significant, and unavoidable obstacle that will eventually cap your growth.
Market Saturation
Sooner or later, every show has a hard cap, beyond which, it is literally or practically impossible to grow.
This cap is determined by a number of factors including:
In marketing-speak, these limitations form the Serviceable Obtainable Market (or SOM), or the total number of people it’s realistically possible for you to acquire as listeners.
Every show has a limited SOM, ranging from perhaps a few dozen listeners for the nichest of shows up to tens of millions for the very biggest.
And while there are some factors you can influence to increase your SOM, such as changing up the content or format of your show, many are entirely beyond your control.
At some point in Phase IV, then, you are guaranteed to reach the upper limit of your show’s potential.
This reality presents two unavoidable challenges:
Here's how to navigate them.
Phase IV Tactics & Practices
In Phase IV, you’re goals are three-fold:
Let’s take a look at each.
Phase IV Growth Tactics
In Phase IV, growth becomes much harder to come by, especially as you near the limits of your SOM.
That said, you still have options, especially in the early stages of the phase.
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Collaborations
Collaborations will remain a key part of your strategy, and will continue to be more impactful as you climb the collaboration ladder to unlock opportunities with other large creators.
At this stage, brand collaborations play an increasing role in your growth as well.
While many creators view brand partnerships primarily as a revenue source, they can also be a fantastic opportunity for gaining exposure to their audience, which should be a conversation you have with all highly aligned partners.
Depending on your niche and the content of your show, you may be able to continue to climb the collaboration ladder (and reap the rewards) for a substantial amount of time.
Eventually, however, you’ll reach a point where you’ve collaborated with all the relevant partners in your niche and those adjacent to it and your collaborations will yield diminishing returns.
At this point, there are a few approaches to consider:
Paid Listener Acquisition
Paid listener acquisition is an advanced strategy that is not worth pursuing for most shows.
But in Phase IV, it becomes one of your biggest (and often most essential) growth levers.
Paid acquisition allows you to get in front of virtually everyone who is active on the internet, something that would be tedious and time-consuming to do through collaborations alone.
There are a number of paid acquisition options, including advertising on:
With that in mind, before adding paid acquisition to the mix, it’s essential to know your numbers and understand what a podcast subscriber is worth to you.
My recommendation is to not advertise your podcast directly but to instead direct your advertising budget to growing your email list.
The reasons are three-fold:
Regardless of which approach to paid listener acquisition you take, this type of marketing is heavily technical and difficult to make work without a high Average Listener Value.
That said, if you have the resources, revenue model, and skill to execute effectively, there can be significant growth to be had through paid acquisition.
Diversifying The Brand
While there may be a lot you can do to grow your existing show in Phase IV, the biggest opportunities for audience growth will come from growing the larger brand.
This can be done in a variety of ways including:
It’s worth noting that while extending the brand beyond your existing show presents a significant opportunity, it also carries risk.
The original show has already defied the statistics to reach this Phase of Growth and it can be hard to catch lightning in a bottle twice.
Rather than attempt to replicate your current show, it’s often a better strategy to try something radically different, focusing on a new (though tangentially related) audience, with a new premise and new format.
Ideally, you want to create a show (or other content property) that makes sense in the universe of your larger brand, but allows you to expand into an audience you haven’t already saturated.
In addition to adding additional content properties to the brand, you can also expand your overall reach through:
Capitalizing On Your Creation
Of course, growth isn’t the be-all, end-all.
At some point in Phase IV, you may have no need or desire to continue to grow your audience, and your goal instead may shift to reaping the hard-won rewards of the work that got you here.
For many shows in this phase, this becomes the singular goal, with growth and marketing put on the back burner.
If your revenue model is based on product or service sales, this will mean:
If your revenue model is based on sponsors and brand deals, this will mean:
For many shows in this phase, these revenue generation opportunities are enough to sustain a sizeable business, even without any additional audience growth.
For others, churn—of audience members, customers, and sponsors—requires an ongoing focus on show and brand growth.
Your situation will be unique to you.
Closing Out Phase IV
When it comes to an individual podcast, Phase IV represents the terminus.
As such, there really is no closing it out.
Many shows that reach this stage continue to run popular, profitable shows for years at a time.
Some of those continue to experience slow and steady growth in audience, while others plateau and shift their attention to continuing to create (and capitalize on) great content for their audiences.
Neither is right or wrong.
Neither represents victory or failure.
If your show has made it this far you’ve already achieved something few other shows ever will, which is something to be proud of.
Of course, while Phase IV represents the end of the line when it comes to the Phases of Podcast Growth, when it comes to expanding beyond the podcast and growing a business, there is still plenty of room to grow and expand.
Whatever your goals—for your show and your business—and whichever Phase youu're in now, I hope this guide has helped illuminate the next step in the journey and given you some actionable ideas on how to reach the next milestone.
I love these jewels of wisdom. Thank you!
??PODCAST GROWTH STRATEGIST?? I am professional Apple podcast & Spotify podcast promoter expert ??
1 年Hello I've been following you for the past few days, And I've been kind you.We can promote your podcast worldwide with a conversation?
Storyteller | Producing podcasts that explore the power of place ?? ??
1 年I appreciate the way you have broken these phases down, definitely been spot-on at every step. As an indie the most difficult thing I faced after hitting 10k per episode was there really wasn't any more advice that worked & few mentors to offer solutions to the issues you've described! Collaboration has been king, but the idea of focusing on paid promotion for an email list sounds promising. Thank you for your insights!
Podcast consultant and growth strategist. Guaranteeing ideal targeted listeners. Is your podcast stuck in an echo chamber? Let me help you. Podcasting 'OG' (since '01) & host of "The Podmaster" available on all apps
1 年Love your work and what you bring to the space but please don’t ever write “Sooner or later, every show has a hard cap, beyond which, it is literally or practically impossible to grow.” again. Total nonsense.
Business Strategist, Protector of Entrepreneurial Spirit, Traditionally-Published Author, Chief Connector
1 年Fascinating insights! Scaling a podcast beyond 10k dl/ep is a Herculean task, especially with world-class competition and market saturation.