Pessimism or Positivity?

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The age-old debate of whether doomerism or optimism will be more effective in driving the climate agenda forward reared its head again this week.

On the doomer side, the pessimists view incremental progress as a smoke screen obscuring the actions needed to reverse out-of-control global warming. They argue that optimists inject complacency into the climate movement.

On the optimist side, the prevailing belief is that we can incentivize innovation and cooperation to beat climate change. They argue that pessimism leads to giving up.

Stories emerged this week on both sides of this divide:

For the Doomers:

• Unprecedented climate change-linked floods in Brazil caused one of the world’s largest climate migrations .
• Scientists admit we've surpassed 1.5°C and will likely reach at least 2.5C .
• Record high atmospheric CO2 levels were reached recently, and we saw the largest yearly increase.
• Last summer was the warmest in 2000 years .

Tony Leiserowitz, a Yale professor on climate change communication, said, “The notion of a ‘doomer camp’ is overstated… In fact, the far larger and more important problem is that most Americans are not worried enough .”

For the Optimists:

• Renewables recently reached 30% of global power generation .
• Battery storage is becoming integral in stabilizing renewable-powered grids.
• New tech like carbon capture is coming online.

Christiana Figueres , one of the architects of the Paris Agreement, wrote in an op-ed this week explaining why stubborn optimism is critical, saying, “A sense of despair is understandable, but it robs us of our agency, makes us vulnerable to mis- and disinformation, and prevents the radical collaboration we need .” In a similar article released this week, climate scientists Michael Mann and Katharine Hayhoe said, “The facts dictate urgency and agency. Our future is still in our hands .”

California Finds Budget For Climate Rules

California is currently dealing with a budget deficit of $27.6 billion, and California Governor Gavin Newsom did not include funding to implement the new California climate laws (SB 253 and 261) in his January budget. This raised concerns about whether the laws' adoption timeline would be delayed.

Now, Governor Newsom has indicated that he will include funding for the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to develop implementing rules in his May revised budget, saying, “They should have the resources .”?

However, the cuts needed to reduce the deficit will delay $1 billion in other climate funding. The California legislature must approve the budget by June 15th.

US-China Climate Diplomacy

As cheap, well-made, Chinese electric vehicles threaten to flood auto markets, the Biden administration quadrupled EV tariffs from 25% to 100% . Tariffs were also doubled for solar panels and tripled for Chinese EV batteries.?

These policies are aimed at protecting domestic manufacturing of these technologies in a move that could appeal to voters ahead of the fall election. However, some analysts claim the lack of competition in the American market could harm manufacturing, slow electrification, and increase costs for consumers. Shweta (Shay) Natarajan , a partner at Mobility Impact Partners, said, “It will decelerate the growth of EV adoption in the US .”?

In spite of these new trade tensions, the two global superpowers (and the world’s largest emitters) are still willing to work together on climate. The first meeting of the US’s new climate envoy, John Podesta , and his Chinese counterpart was said to be “in-depth and productive.” Both sides said they would intensify cooperation on moving away from coal and adopting renewables.

SBTi Staff Finds Offsets Ineffective

The ongoing battle between SBTi leadership and employees took another turn last week as a leaked document compiled by SBTi staff revealed carbon offsets are largely ineffective .

The battle began when the Science Based Target Initiative, the ‘gold standard’ in validating carbon emissions reduction targets, announced they would start allowing some Scope 3 targets to involve carbon offsets. After a staff revolt, they undertook a review of scientific journal articles and expert submissions on the validity of this approach. If upheld by their Scientific Advisory Group, a panel comprising climate scientists, it would be a rebuke to SBTi’s leadership who said that a final decision on the change would be "informed by the evidence.”

EU New Greenwashing Rules and Trucking Emissions Reductions

The EU continues its seemingly never-ending run of environmental regulations by releasing two new important rules.?

The first was the final adoption by EU Member States of a rule that will reduce emissions from heavy-duty vehicles, like trucks and buses, by 90% by 2040 . The second was a new rule issued by the EU’s securities regulator European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), aimed at reducing greenwashing investment funds labeled as supporting ESG or sustainability. The policy sets thresholds that must be met for funds to be labeled as sustainable and introduces a new transition investment label for investments that are on the trajectory of becoming sustainable.

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Other Notable News:

• 21 Congressional Democrats sent a letter to SEC Chair Gary Gensler asking him to finalize their ESG funds disclosure rule . The letter signatories said the rule is “critical for addressing greenwashing and other exaggerated or unfounded ESG-related claims amongst funds and investment advisers.”
• There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about companies' climate targets . A new analysis by FT found that although investors think climate targets reduce returns, in most cases the opposite is true.
• After a court injunction froze an Oklahoma anti-ESG regulation, the attorney general fired the external law team working on the case .
• This article points out three fundamental problems with Scope 2 emissions calculations, or the emissions from purchased energy, steam, and heat . It also points to the current update to the GHG Protocol as a critical time to remedy these problems and gives clear steps on how to do so.
• The 15th annual report identifying the biggest financiers of the fossil fuel industry was dominated by big US banks .
• New research from my company, BCG, reveals the two primary strategies governments use to integrate the green transition into their economies .?
• A new Deloitte survey finds that 2/3s of GenZ and Millennials suffer from climate anxiety, leading to changing their consumer and employment choices. ?
• Beginning this year, the Lego Group announced that it would tie all employee bonuses to emissions reduction goals.

Notable Podcasts:?

• On the May 15th episode of the NYT’s The Daily discusses a pervasive problem in the US right now: uninsurable homes . As climate change brings more extreme weather events, the home insurance market is starting to buckle. NYT climate reporter Christopher Flavelle discussed the repercussions of this worrying trend.?
• This week’s The Climate Rising podcast from the Harvard Business Review is the first in a new series on decarbonizing global value chains . In the first episode, the hosts explore how new ‘green concrete' and urban mining tech are coming online to reduce emissions.

Notable Job Opportunities:

• ESG Controller, Netflix, Los Gatos, California
• Sustainability Project Manager, Advantis Global is becoming INSPYR Solutions, Remote, US
• SAP Sustainability Manager, Accenture,? Austin, TX
• Sustainability Regulations Reporting Analyst, Columbus, OH, USA
• Associate Manager, Sustainability Measurement & Analytics, Mattel, El Segundo, California
• Climate Impacts Intern (SU 2024), The Center for Climate Integrity · Washington DC, Remote, Part-time
• Sustainability Associate, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, SMBC Group, New York, NY, Hybrid
• Corporate Responsibility Associate, MSCI Inc., New York, NY, Hybrid