Perspectives on Manufacturing 4.0

Philippe Collard – General Manager, Rezoway USA :

“It is very difficult to make predictions especially about the future”. Thus, this is not a prediction but a set of reflections on what is called “Manufacturing 4.0”. These reflections are my own and I do not pretend for any of them or all of them to be the exact “ground truth”. Feel free to disagree, counter argue and comment.

1.    Introduction

I was born in France. On my mother side, my entire family worked in the heavy manufacturing industry in the north of the country. As a child, my maternal grand father and my two great grand fathers took me “on tours” of the places where they were working or had been working. Giant places (to a child), dark, smelling of melted metal, full of sparks and loud noises, sweaty men wearing blue work outfits, their faces soiled by soot. My grand father (who started to work at one factory at age 14 until he retired from the same place at age 65) built steam locomotive boiler tanks. Every time he took me to visit his workplace, I was in awe (not realizing how hard it was for those men to work in this miniature inferno). Such was my introduction to “manufacturing”. It was only 60 years ago.

What I would like to do with this article is to briefly revisit the evolution of manufacturing from my first exposure to it as a child to what it is today and, to what it could become through what is called Manufacturing 4.0.

2.    A very brief history of manufacturing automation

First let us define “manufacturing”. This is what Wikipedia tells us:

Manufacturing is the creation or production of goods with the help of equipment, labor, machines, tools, and chemical or biological processing or formulation. It is the essence of the secondary sector of the economy.[1][unreliable source?] The term may refer to a range of human activity, from handicraft to high-tech, but it is most commonly applied to industrial design, in which raw materials from the primary sector are transformed into finished goods on a large scale. Such goods may be sold to other manufacturers for the production of other more complex products (such as aircraft, household appliances, furniture, sports equipment or automobiles), or distributed via the tertiary industry to end users and consumers (usually through wholesalers, who in turn sell to retailers, who then sell them to individual customers).

What are the keywords in that definition: production, industrial, finished goods, large scale.

Such industrial production of finished goods on a large scale started in the 19th century. And it was primarily the result of applying vast amount of manual labor in horrendous conditions that resulted in “finished goods in large scale” [at the time] [in spite of what can be said of the contribution of steam engines].

Automation was introduced in the first two decades of the 20th century. It is generally accepted that two factors contributed to increase manufacturing productivity during those years: first, electricity and electric engines (embedded in machines) and second, the assembly line. Still, production required a large amount of human labor.

Between 1950 to dawn of the 21st century, several innovations (such as Programmable Logic Controllers (PLC)) saw the rapid automation of various manufacturing processes. Also, robotics started to make its entry into the manufacturing world. At the same time, the availability of digital computers (mini, micro) meant that manufacturing facilities were now able to have controllers which performed more complex tasks at faster speeds and greater efficiency.

The globalisation of western economies added another layer of complexity to the manufacturing process. A lot of the production of finished good on a large scale was massively outsourced to China, Southeast Asia and, to a lesser extend, to Mexico and Canada following the signature of NAFTA. A product could then be designed in a country, manufactured in another, to be sold in a third one, with supply chains extending all over the world.

Lastly, major advances in robotics and automation have seen great many manual tasks be eliminated to the point where some of these tasks no longer require human intervention (A telling example: today there is not a car that is painted other than by robots. It is much more efficient, can be done with a much higher throughput but also do not expose workers to toxic fumes).

It is also to be noted that new production paradigms were introduced with major impact on how a factory (and a business) operates, like JIT (or Just-In-Time) manufacturing.

In recent years, a new concept has beginning to be discussed: Manufacturing 4.0 (or Industry 4.0). It is supposed to be the next (and fourth) Industrial revolution. What exactly are we talking about?

3.    What is Manufacturing 4.0

Let us first consider the journey of a product in our days and age. It can be ordered at one corner of the globe. That order will be dispatched to production scheduling center at another corner of the globe. The production facility may be located at a third corner of the globe, where all the raw material and parts must be received for the product to be manufactured. Then shipped presumably (but not necessarily) where the product was ordered in the first place. A “product” may be something as simple as a shoe or as complex as a gas turbine. Of course, that product had to first be conceived and designed (which may include many teams all over the world).

For the past 40 years, we have been able to introduce digital technology to automate each phase of this process [ordering, inventory management, sourcing of material and parts, production, quality control, shipping, logistics and supply chain management, post sales support in some cases]. Still, in many cases, all these systems operate in silo (despite what you may hear from vendors).

The first thing we can say about Manufacturing 4.0 is that it is a concept that calls for the seamless integration of all the systems (software/hardware/machinery) involved in the full product chain (from design to delivery). It is safe to say that such a lofty goal is extremely difficult to achieve. Having said that, it is a worthy goal and any effort in that direction will result in productivity increase all along the product chain. To that effect, it is important to continue to develop interfacing standards so those systems (whatever they may be) talk to each other. In other words, Manufacturing 4.0 is the digitalization and integration of the entire product value chain, from design to delivery.

However, if you read the reports of many market analysts, their definition of Manufacturing 4.0 focuses on a set of technologies (existing or future) that will dramatically transform the factory of the future. I disagree with this reduced view of the Manufacturing 4.0 concept on two counts. First, I believe that the integration of the “factory” with all other parts of a business is a defining characteristic of Manufacturing 4.0. Second, whereas some technologies are “ready for prime time” and other have the demonstrated potential to add significant value, others are simply nothing more than hype or so far from being operational that their prospect for the next 20 years is extremely uncertain. I do not pretend to be an analyst and have no desire to be one. So, I will share with you which technologies I believe will make a major impact on manufacturing in the future.

4.    Manufacturing 4.0: trends and enabling technologies.

Before we discuss Manufacturing 4.0 enabling technologies, we need to discuss two major trends that not only accelerate the move to Manufacturing 4.0, but make it almost inevitable:

• First, there is a chronic shortage of qualified workers. There is no indication that this shortage will be alleviated in the near to mid term. This is the result of an aging population that will retire in great numbers within the next 10 years. And let us not forget the pandemic (COVID 19) that saw many people decide to reorient their life and career. A quick look at the age pyramid of the US (and any other western nation) shows that what is called “population aging” is in full display. There are 170 million people between age 24 and 64 in the US. Of those, 42 million (or 24%) are over 55 and will likely retire within the next 10 years. It simply is unthinkable to effectively replace all these people within the next 10 years. Thus, machines and computers will have to pick up the slack. [Of course, I am not ruling out immigration as a source of labor. But it cannot be as effective, and as quick as the mass deployment of robotics and automation.

 For an animated graph of the US age pyramid from 1900 until now, consult this link:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#/media/File:US_demographic_composition_population_pyramid.gif

•  Climate change is real. Its effects are increasingly violent and destructive. We are also in dire need to diversify our sources of energy and, generally speaking, reduce our energy consumption at the same time we reduce our carbon footprint. The consequence is a re-engineering and re-building of our entire industrial base within the next 25 to 50 years to make it leaner in terms of energy needs and cleaner in term of manufacturing processes. At the same time, we need to be more frugal with raw material, thus the emergence of what is called the “circular economy”.

What are then Manufacturing 4.0 enabling technologies:

? First, second and third: ROBOTS. First let us address “humanoid robots”. And no, you will not see legions of them in the factories of the future. I understand that some (we will not name them) are trying to sell you the notion that humanoid robots are the way of the future. It is, in my view, completely idiotic. Take a two-legged humanoid robot and try to imagine the amount of hardware and software dedicated (wasted) to make it move (walk, run) while keeping its balance. Now imagine the same for a four-legged robot. Now replace the legs with wheels ??. Human did not become the dominant species because of their morphology, but because of their brain. Look at today’s robots painting cars. They have replaced PEOPLE. Why would you replace them with robots that look like people? Enough of that! Oh, and by the way, a humanoid robot has only 2 hands. There is no limit to the number of hands you can equip a “real” robot with ??

I put “automaton” in the “robots” category. By “automaton” I mean any machine or set of machines that completely automate a specific production task or sub-task. There are already plenty of them around. Expect to see more and more. [Note: the vanishing of manufacturing jobs during the 80s, 90s and 2000s was mainly attributed to sending those jobs overseas. Automation and robotics had a big contribution as well. And it will continue in the future. A factory of the future will be operated by much fewer employees that will not produce much but rather control the production done by robots and automatons].

I expect to see robots of all kinds and shapes populating a factory floor. Some will do the actual production. Others will bring parts to be assembled from the inventory warehouse. Others will clean the floor. In that respect, a factory of the future will resemble a scene from Star Wars ?? [I am a Star Wars fan].

? IoT (Internet of Things). In essence an “IoT” device = an embedded controller + sensors + networking capabilities + an electro-mechanical actuator. Not all IoT device include all of these components though. The key capability is “networking” because we have built embedded systems for a long time. One very exciting development in the area of IoT are MEMS (MicroElectronic Mechanical Systems) [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MEMS]. The advance in microelectronics has allowed us to build smaller and smaller devices which we can embed in many products [your smart watch or smart phone incorporates a MEMS to determine if you are walking or running or sleeping]. In other words, we can build tiny “intelligent” systems that can be embedded in not only products but also machines and we can make them communicate with each other. In that respect, the “networking” part will be heavily stressed, thus the requirement to deploy 5G.

? Data analytics. The current hype is to call AI what is simply “data analytics”. Nonetheless, the capability to sort through vast amounts of data and make (some) statistical sense out of it will be a direct contributor to a more efficient factory. We can centralize production data, reject data, defect data (from consumers) and optimize the production chain. And of course, we can optimize the entire product value chain by sourcing the raw material and parts that will precisely respond, in almost real-time, to market demand.

? Smart supply chains. The pandemic has demonstrated that our supply chain is extremely complex and that, when a single element fails, we may face dire consequences. We have developed ways to manage demand, inventory, returns in a somewhat seamless fashion, over a distributed supply chain. We are far from complete and smooth integration. My own assertion is that, unless we find ways to completely understand and manage the supply/demand chain from beginning to end, we will not achieve the promises of Manufacturing 4.0, certainly not in terms of being as lean as we can be relative to utilization of raw material, energy consumption for production and carbon footprint.

? 2D integration (inside the factory / outside the factory). This is simply the extension of the supply chain to the factory floor. It is also involve a product value chain that starts with the idea of a new product and end with its deliver to a customer. Obviously, the idea of making this process an uninterrupted continuum is somewhat utopic. However, any advance in that area will make Manufacturing 4.0 a more tangible reality.

? Digital twins or industrial simulation. We have been simulating “things” for a long time (war, chemical processes, machines, etc). What if we could feed those simulation with real data? Well, we have done that for a long time as well. Then what if we could feed simulations (or digital twins as they are called) with REAL-TIME DATA [and that is where the integrated supply chain and the IoTs come into play]. All of a sudden, a simulation is not just an off-line capability, it becomes a real-time planning tool. Real-time as “tell me what’s going to happen in terms of production a couple of hours from now, given all the data we are getting [which can include a major shut down of some machines]”.

? “Green” manufacturing. As I mentioned earlier, we cannot continue consuming resources at the current pace and we need to find other sources of energy. This will require a profound rethinking of manufacturing processes. The “circular economy” is an interesting trend that sees entire products, parts of products or raw materials being systematically reused, refurbished, or resold. Whatever the factory of the future may be, it must have a lower energy demand and a lower carbon footprint. To each product we manufacture, a carbon “cost” will be associated and there will be constant push to reduce this “cost”. It is not per-se an “enabling technology” but definitely a trend what will impact whatever Manufacturing 4.0 ends up being.

? Hardware and software integration standards.

I am convinced that very few readers will recognize what is on the above picture. It was called a CAMAC crate. CAMAC for Computer-Aided Measurement And Control. It was a standard that allowed designers of controller boards to access signals and data from other controller boards build by other manufacturers. CAMAC, and other standards, played a major role during the early phases of the push for automation. Such was Ethernet as a standardize network protocol in the early 80s.

All the technologies that I mentioned, and those that need to be invented, will need to “talk” to each other if we are ever to see a complete product value chain integration. The definition and acceptance of standards will be critical. It should be noted that, in the area of standards, software has always lagged behind hardware.

There are a number of technologies often mentioned by analysts that I did not include in my list of “enablers”:

? AR/VR. People have been toying around with AR/VR for 30 years and, aside from gaming, no “killer app” has emerged. First and foremost, there is virtual reality motion sickness which is very real, despite the claims of the VR afficionados. Most people will feel motion sickness after 15 to 20 minutes of being emerged in a VR environment. If it is for gaming, you can always stop. If this is a work environment, it is unproductive and can also be dangerous. Called me a “tech dinosaur” if you want, but I cannot think of a single industrial application that requires (and the word is very important) AR/VR.

? Cloud. The cloud can be summarized to servers + networks + on-demand applications. It may facilitate Manufacturing 4.0. However, it does not, in my view, enables it. There is currently a trend (not a major one but enough to be noticed) that sees companies repatriating their IT environment to on-premise set ups [cost of the Cloud being a prime reason].  

? 3D Printing. 3D printing offers all kinds of opportunities. However, it does nothing for automation or integration of the supply chain (which I believe are the cornerstones of Manufacturing 4.0).

? Cybersecurity. “What can be hacked will be hacked!”. There is no question that the more computers (and computer-controlled machines / robots / etc) you have, the more exposed you are to cyber-attacks. This is something that can be a very serious issue. Imagine a factory with an 80% or 90% automation. Imagine hackers taking control of that factory. That being said, cybersecurity does not, in my mind, enables Manufacturing 4.0. But it is clear that it is a major work area to make Manufacturing 4.0 safe.

5.     Beyond the hype: the road to Manufacturing 4.0

According to analysts (??) Manufacturing 4.0 is a certainty. And it will happen all at once. Not so. I share with you a “hype cycle” [quite telling that, when technology pundits make predictions, their way to caveat said predictions is to package them in a “hype cycle” chart].

If we look at the enabling technologies we mentioned earlier, two things are absolutely clear: those technologies are not all at the same level maturity and second, their seamless integration is still in its infancy.

It will therefore take a while before we can see a completely integrated product value chain, from design to delivery. As I mentioned, one enabling “technology” is “communication and integration standards”. They always take a while to be defined and agreed upon. And it always takes some time to see them widely adopted.

All that being said, there are not only economical and commercial reasons for making Manufacturing 4.0 a reality, but societal reasons as well. Bottom line: there simply will not be enough people to produce as much, let alone produce more (where “produce” encompasses the entire life cycle, from design to delivery of a product).

It will be exciting to see materialize, though it will take some time. The factory of the future will not resemble the atrocious places where my grandfather and great grandfathers worked. It certainly is a good thing.

?About Rezoway. For the past 15 years, Rezoway, with offices in Montreal, Toronto and San Diego, has been instrumental in assisting French companies establish their business in North America. We are a team of entrepreneurs whose mission is to help other entrepreneurs succeed in the expansion plan in North America. We do not write reports. We become an integral part of our clients’ teams. www.rezoway.com

Rezoway and Manufacturing 4.0. Rezoway is actively involved with companies driving the Manufacturing 4.0 revolution. We have helped a number of European companies enter the North American market to become participants in the Manufacturing 4.0 transformation. Here are some of our references:

MECACONCEPT - https://www.mecaconcept.com/en/

STEP AT - https://www.stepat.com

EDIXIA - https://www.edixia.fr/en/home/

STIRWELD - https://stirweld.com/en/home-2/

ATS - https://ats.tech/

FLUIDESIGN - https://www.fluidesign-group.fr/